Corona Virus

[rxl]

How about this?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52135814

[rookiepilot]

Mr Pelmet,
Please stop being dangerous. There is no discussion. As some have already said, do what actual experts are suggesting, and face reality. You are proposing anarchy, and a situation that has been studied through modelling, and shown to be pure folly. I implore you to keep your thoughts to yourself. Please.

I do not mean to be rude, and appreciate your fears. We are all very sorry for those around us who are suffering. We are all going to be OK, if we do not deviate.

When dealing with a mixture of stupidity, I have zero problem being rude.

Pelmet, stick to Cadors...

[corethatthermal]

When it comes to advanced thought, Sweden has got it in spades ! Her government decided to keep things open and trust in her people to do the right thing , Canada has screwed up in open borders and lack of mask use but the figures show this: Total cases per 1 million people Canada = 411 Sweden = 676 Total deaths per 1 million people, Canada = 7 Sweden = 40 In all her wisdom, Sweden is trying the same failed trick that she is trying with another Virus. I would be banned if I mentioned the virus though

[corethatthermal]

Netherlands tried the herd immunity trick and here are the numbers : 1042 ( cases per 1M ) 103 ( deaths per 1M ) they since changed their minds ! The economic issue can be erased with a pen-stroke ( Global currency reset and global debt forgiveness ) The 2 problems with going along with herd immunity as a sole response is 1) The obvious, as everyone knows , overwhelming the health care system and thereby causing unnecessary deaths and 2) Causing mass casualties through other means ( third world issues, lack of food to market, increased death rate due to societal breakdown, Weakened countries causing authoritarian takeovers ( Coups) leading to MILLIONS of extra deaths, suicides, depression leading to opioid deaths etc etc. )

[corethatthermal]

Does one listen to a success story like Taiwan OR losers like Sweden, the Netherlands, Dr. Tam and the CHO, I mean WHO !

[pelmet]

Thanks,

It is essential that measures are taken to protect those at high risk of complications. We see in some jurisdictions a desire to open up the economy again. Protection of the vulnerable is important. I have passed along my idea.

[corethatthermal]

If bill bartered with jenny, Bill would give Jenny 1 cow and Jenny would give bill 400 pounds of vegetables and fruits, done deal, no "cash" transaction. Any cash transaction is simply a "debt note" an IOU . If Bill were to provide a debt note ( Cash) to Jenny for 400 pounds of produce, Jenny would not be able to cut up the cash and eat it ! She would have to use the notes to buy a cow somewhere else. The world nowadays is a house of cards, trading on IOU s well beyond their stored produce (resource backing) All countries are doing this but will not come to the table to fix this impending disaster. A calamity greater than Covid19 MAY just do this through dictatorial control, and zero balance of all debtor nations. Countries like America better get their act together and be self sufficient insteading of relying on a debt note and promise to repay, otherwise, she will be as vulnerable to the NWO continuing enslavement as most other nations will! WRT Covid19, money and the economy is NOT the issue, the issue is HOW will the NWO globalists turn this occasion into a complete subjugation of the WHOLE world. ( Personally, I think it's not a big enough disruption, but rather a good crisis that ought not to be wasted, as the saying goes.)

[mixturerich]

It’s amazing how self-righteous and know-it-all pilots can be, relying on their own unique, revolutionary ideas, concepts, and pseudoscience, rather than having faith in the doctors of the world and people with actual medical expertise.

Everyone is trying to save the economy from behind their keyboard.

Please.

[complexintentions]

It’s amazing how self-righteous and know-it-all pilots can be, relying on their own unique, revolutionary ideas, concepts, and pseudoscience, rather than having faith in the doctors of the world and people with actual medical expertise.

Everyone is trying to save the economy from behind their keyboard.

Please.

Hilarious - a self-righteous rant about self-righteousness!

You're correct we should trust the trustworthy experts. Which ones are those, again? The ones who completely missed a global viral outbreak? The ones now doing the about-face on masks? The Canadian WHO doc who ends an interview regarding Taiwan - arguably with the best practices in the world against Covid-19 - to avoid offending the PRC? The head of WHO, Dr. Tedros Adhanom who owes his position on the WHO to support from the PRC? The experts who advised against closing borders to avoid "stigmatizing" people? I could go on.

I am fully on board with a rational, science-based approach to the crisis. But the signal-to-noise ratio from the deemed "experts" has been absolutely brutal so far. Your implication that we should all suspend critical thought and relegate that to our "betters" is more frightening than the virus.

So, my uneducated opinion. I believe the current practices of isolation are vital, and effective in reducing the spread and ensuing mortality rates. But those defending them are missing the point. Without treatment or vaccine, it's only postponing the inevitable resurgence once isolation practices are stopped.

A call to honesty in pandemic modeling

A compelling argument that the massive numbers of casualties is only being being pushed further down the road.

...an inevitable feature of realistic models of epidemics; once transmission rates return to normal, the epidemic will proceed largely as it would have without mitigations, unless a significant fraction of the population is immune (either because they have recovered from the infection or because an effective vaccine has been developed), or the infectious agent has been completely eliminated, without risk of reintroduction. In the case of the model presented in Kristof’s article, assumptions about seasonality of the virus combined with the longer mitigation period simply push the epidemic outside the window they consider.

The delay time that isolation is buying may be vital while we try and figure out what to do ie, treatments and vaccines, but it isn't realistic to think the world will lockdown for the amount of time it may take for a viable vaccine to emerge. There is in fact no guarantee one ever will. There are some promising treatments but they'll take time too to properly clinically trial.

The only intermediate solution I foresee would be massive, I mean global-scale, testing (while still maintaining strict social distancing in the interim, of course). This DOES eliminate much of the unknown regarding both the pervasiveness and the spread. Non-infected or recovered former infected get to work - everyone else stays home until they recover. Or don't. But those who don't would be able to access the medical care to at least give them a chance.

If you think your smartphone knows a lot about you now, you ain't seen nothing yet.

[pelmet]

It’s amazing how self-righteous and know-it-all pilots can be, relying on their own unique, revolutionary ideas, concepts, and pseudoscience, rather than having faith in the doctors of the world and people with actual medical expertise.

Everyone is trying to save the economy from behind their keyboard.

Please.

Thank god we have the experts to save us .

World Health Organization tweet on January 14....
"Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China."

Well, how the hell do you think it is spreading idiot experts?

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news ... eaks-onset

The WHO also said not to close borders to China but fortunately, the US did anyways. Now every border is closed. Yet you say you have trust in the experts and people with real medical expertise. An organization with a leader from corrupt Africa which now gets billions from China as influence money.

'WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says 151 cases of the disease and one death have been confirmed in 23 countries outside China. He says this small number of cases can be managed without countries resorting to extreme measures.
"There is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade. We call on all countries to implement decisions that are evidence-based and consistent. WHO stands ready to provide advice to any country that is considering which measures to take,” Tedros said.'

https://www.voanews.com/science-health/ ... ners-china

Meanwhile Canada's supposed chief expert(what qualified that person for the top job in Trudeau's affirmative action style government leaders of equality - maybe she was most qualified of the choices but there is no way to have faith in that with this government) along with the World Health Organization that seems to be obedient to Chinese government propaganda is still claiming that there is no benefit to wearing a mask if you want to prevent spread of this disease while the CDC in the US has finally started recommending wearing a mask to prevent spreading the disease. Think about it bonehead experts. I have had an occasional cough from a cold for at least a week. If I am also an asymptomatic carrier of Covid-19, then what happens if I cough near someone. Cough into your sleeve you say...sometimes one doesn't have time. Is it not obvious to an expert. Quickly read the links below....

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/covid- ... -1.5515526
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... rings.html
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... e-question

Why do people blindly say.....

Follow The Experts? They sound like amateurs to me. Yet they want to lock us down forever.

What if no vaccine can be found. Will be still be debating this on lockdown five years from now with our country looking like Venezuela(which is likely worse than a pandemic). Get the herd immunity for the young people as they return most of the economy to normal. Quarantine the vulnerable ones(and anyone else who prefers to do so) and prevent a descent into the real risk of anarchy.

Haven't we seen enough bad advice screw-ups from federal regulating authorities and professional pilots themselves to realize that just because you have a title, doesn't mean you know what the hell you are talking about. From endless airline disasters due to pilot error to certified aircraft crashing when they shouldn't have been certified to poor training techniques. Why would it be any different in the medical field where the number off accidental deaths due to medical errors each year is astronomical. Yet there is a never-ending line-up of lemmings.

[shimmydampner]

Hey mods, what does this have to do with aviation?

[ayseven]

You are a fool. Believe what you will, but trying to influence attitudes with misinformation and twisted fantasies is dangerous. You are not contributing to a discussion, you are a troll.

I will tell you what happens in a care facility lock down: nobody but the workers can go into the building. Who do you think these workers are? Who lifts a 90 year old lady and helps her to the toilet? SOMEBODY UNDER 55. Those people go home after their shift is over - there is no room in the long term care facility for anybody but the residents. Those people have families who work in large office buildings with mostly under 55s - buildings that blow the same air all over the place. These are full of people who do not know they are carrying the virus. This disease can be air borne. Surely even you can see what happens next? But I won't bet you will. See above.

[2R]

The first casualty in War is Truth .

[Rockie]

Follow The Experts? They sound like amateurs to me. Yet they want to lock us down forever.

What if no vaccine can be found. Will be still be debating this on lockdown five years from now with our country looking like Venezuela(which is likely worse than a pandemic). Get the herd immunity for the young people as they return most of the economy to normal. Quarantine the vulnerable ones(and anyone else who prefers to do so) and prevent a descent into the real risk of anarchy.

If there were a way to isolate you and the rest of the "herd immunity" Darwin Award contenders on an island so you could conduct your little health experiment I'd be all for it. But we can't. So for now you'll just have to do what the public health and infectious disease experts tell us is the safest way out of this quagmire political incompetents have gotten us into.

Say, you don't live in Georgia by any chance do you?

[digits_]

pelmet, how would the result of your proposal differ from the situation in Italy and Spain? They -unwillingly- implemented the herd strategy by not taking any isolation actions in time.

[rookiepilot]

Hey mods, what does this have to do with aviation?

CADORS reguritation is clearly not enough for some.

[Soyer]

Both 'sides' have valuable points. The fact is that 50-75% of the population will get Covid-19 and, eventually, herd immunity becomes viable. Hunkering down, as we are doing now, is meant ONLY to to spread the rate of infection over time so that the 50-75% who end up of with a serious case of the infection are able to be treated with the hope of keeping deaths to a minimum. It kills approx. 0.5-1% of those infected whether they receive medical help or not.

When we come out of isolation there WILL be a spike again in the number of cases as the virus continues spreading. The world is in mitigation mode. Complete suppression would require over a year in isolation.

But if we are to look at this objectively then we have to look at the economic consequences of the policies we follow. The suicide rate in the US (and elsewhere) during the last financial crisis increased as people lost everything - the same, and worse, will happen with Covid. How many people may/will be unemployed for great lengths of time - the affects of poverty with regard to health and mortality are well documented, numbers that don't lie. How many hundreds of millions in the 3rd world will be affected by the virus itself and the economic devastation that results from it? The despots of the world are licking their lips at the opportunities this will provide them.

Governments around the world f#cked up big time, only 17 years after SARS. Canada, in particular, suffered from SARs and should have know better. What did we do - let our stocks of masks go stale! So NO - I don't take anything they say any longer at face value!

There are consequences - REAL consequences - that go along with any path we follow. Our job is to evaluate those consequences, as a society, and make an informed decision. But no politician will stand up and say that deaths now may be better than more deaths later. They won't even discuss it and people don't want to hear it. I'm not saying that is the path we should follow but it should be openly and honestly discussed. This should be second nature on an airline forum as that is our bread and butter - we assess, act, manage and then reassess.

[ehv8oar]

The good news is this does seem to be ending, lower cases in Italy, Spain and New York. The social distancing policy while having an economic impact is obviously working.

Those people that complain about how it’s ill advised, over the top etc etc should honestly ask themselves if their opinion would still be the same if their parents or relatives got it and ended up in ICU.

[altiplano]

Challenging the group-think echo chamber, or discussing policy alternatives isn't trolling.

I'd suggest that the responses to policy criticism I see here are worse.

[corethatthermal]

PELMET, I applaud you for summarizing everything and putting it all together ( I am either too lazy or know the ignorant folks would not believe easily researched truths anyways or be banned )
I have come by this information as you have and it doesn't take an intelligent person to figure it all out ! Apparently, just a more intelligent person than some of the pilots here lol

I have read about the Chinese green/yellow/red scorecard that they carry in their cellphones . I would like to see massive antibody tests done in Canada to confirm those who are now immune to the virus ( When enough research proves longer term natural immunity is certain) and those people being allowed unrestricted access everywhere. They would need to carry about some proof of course. We also must rely on EVIDENCE and diligently use proper masks/eye protection for ALL people when within communicable distances ( 2-10M ) This Covid has not infected 2-5 million people already due to just coughing or lack of hand washing folks, it is airborne and a mix of particle ( carried by droplets) and atomized ( dried up particle ) nuclei spread ! WE CAN get back to a nearly normal life ( LIKE TAIWAN ) BUT we must listen and apply proven /observable means to do it and NOT listen to the so-called professional idiots pelmet obviously pointed out !!!