Coronavirus Numbers

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Rockie
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Rockie »

Medical and public health experts change their guidance based on increased knowledge, experience and changing circumstances. Unlike the know-nothing blowhards who pull advice out of their ass which is the only alternative.

When I need medical advice I go see my doctor, not the guy down the street who treats furniture for stain protection.

When I bought new furniture last year I called furniture guy down the street, not my doctor.

When the furniture guy and my doctor go somewhere I'm sure both of them prefer I was up front than either one of them. And if I change plans partway through based on changing conditions furniture guy doesn't yank me out of the chair so the doctor can fly or vice versa.

All three of us seem to know our limitations and who the expert really is.
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by hamstandard »

Rockie wrote: Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:45 am Medical and public health experts change their guidance based on increased knowledge, experience and changing circumstances. Unlike the know-nothing blowhards who pull advice out of their ass which is the only alternative.

When I need medical advice I go see my doctor, not the guy down the street who treats furniture for stain protection.

When I bought new furniture last year I called furniture guy down the street, not my doctor.

When the furniture guy and my doctor go somewhere I'm sure both of them prefer I was up front than either one of them. And if I change plans partway through based on changing conditions furniture guy doesn't yank me out of the chair so the doctor can fly or vice versa.

All three of us seem to know our limitations and who the expert really is.
Looks like the Taiwanese hired experts who knew what they were doing and haven’t had to change their minds.

I guess the medical experts are like pilots, some of them crash and burn. If you are lucky, they don’t take the economy with them.

I applaud the Alberta government for listening to the experts in Europe and US when it comes to testing.
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Last edited by hamstandard on Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
altiplano
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by altiplano »

You are a toxic individual. All insult no conversation.
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Rockie
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Rockie »

I didn't insult anyone actually except some generic know-nothing, but then again some things are justly deserving of insult. Sounds "non-PC" I know but I thought the "non-PC" crowd liked that kind of thing.

You don't have anything to say about the expert/non-expert principle in my post?
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2R
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by 2R »

New numbers:
Germany requests 130 billion in compensation from China for the costs associated with the Pandemic .
First request there will be more .
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2R
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by 2R »

Bit of a thread drift to talk about furniture , but if you remember when Jack Layton had his blood tested for toxins , turns out his blood was polluted with toxic chemicals
Chemicals similar to those used to protect furniture from stains and retard furniture fire . Jack Layton died from Cancer .
Maybe avoiding stain resistant furniture might be a healthy lifestyle choice . Most of my furniture is high end leather cleaned with saddle soap , so I reduce the amount of toxic transdermal chemical exposure .

Still waiting on reports about long term exposure to chemtrail exposure when we have to fly through the wake of one of the larger chemtrail tankers . Is six miles enough to avoid the toxins behind the " Heavy " tanker :)
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by hamstandard »

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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by rxl »

2R wrote: Sun Apr 19, 2020 9:23 am New numbers:
Germany requests 130 billion in compensation from China for the costs associated with the Pandemic .
First request there will be more .
This is not (yet anyway) an official government request. It came from the German tabloid newspaper Bild. It’s an itemized invoice for €149B or £130B.
There have been some class action lawsuits launched in the US in Florida and Nevada.
Interesting to see where this leads ...
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RippleRock
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by RippleRock »

Out of the National Post today.

COVID-19 reaches peak in Ontario and elsewhere in the country, with fewer people dying than feared.


Under Ontario’s grim modelling released earlier this month, the “best case” scenario had put the number of COVID-19 sufferers in intensive care at around 1,200 as of Monday.
According to Ontario government data, there were 247 people in intensive care on Monday morning, 193 of them on ventilators.
The earlier projections had also called for 1,600 deaths by April 30, and 80,000 cases. As of Monday morning, there were 584 reported deaths, 11,184 confirmed cases and 802 people in hospital.
Officials said the earlier models were reasonable and based on experiences in Italy and other countries, and that frightening data can get people to change their behaviours. The models are designed to plan for what could happen. However, the further out the forecast, the more uncertainty in the predictions. Brown said it’s hard to draw conclusions about mortality. While the expectation now is that Ontario will see a lower number of overall deaths, the ramp up of cases in long-term care homes “obviously makes it hard to predict a number of actual deaths.”

The pandemic curve in nursing homes (there are outbreaks in 127 long-term care homes in Ontario alone) homeless shelters and other places where a lot of people are brought close together is still accelerating upwards.
However, the Ontario curve, most provincial curves and even the national curve are showing signs of bending, Brown said. “We may be at a place where we are seeing roughly the same number of cases every day as we talk about peak.” Discussions are now happening about bringing some elective procedures back online while maintaining the ramped up hospital capacity as a buffer when the economy and society reopens “should we accidentally go back into a period of community spread,” said Matthew Anderson, president and CEO of Ontario Health.
British Columbia is now past the peak of new infections, Alberta is approaching its peak and Ontario and Quebec, “the worst-hit provinces, should reach their peaks within days,” Eric Hoskins, Ontario’s former health minister, recently wrote in the Globe and Mail. He added that barring any dramatic change in the epidemic, it would be reasonable to start cautiously loosening restrictions by early May.
About half of COVID-19 deaths in Canada have occurred in long-term care homes.



THE BEST CASE SCENARIO IN ONTARIO HAD 1200 PROJECTED IN INTENSIVE CARE BY NOW, AS OF MONDAY THEY HAD 247.
50% FROM LONG TERM OLD-AGE CARE HOMES. Meaning only 124 were from the general population.

The Government has clearly mis-managed this. They have used fear to manipulate the population. They really dropped the ball by NOT immediately securing and isolating the elderly in long-term care facilities and the disadvantaged housed in social support centers.

Great work Justin, now send us all the bill. A 5% Covid-19 recovery tax ---in perpetuity--- will suffice. (cuz taxes never seem to go away)
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AuxBatOn
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by AuxBatOn »

What is the definition of “peak”?

Most new cases in a day?
Most deaths in a day?
Most active cases?
Most ICU beds used?
Most ventilators used?
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RippleRock
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by RippleRock »

Even if you stick to the actual numbers showing up in hospitals, we are at only a fraction of the "best case" scenario projected overall.

Who would have thunk that the elderly in "close proximity long term care facilities" would produce the largest mortality numbers, and the most overall cases as a percentage of sub-groups?

Unreal. My 6 year old could have foreseen this before the Trudeau Government did. They are good at "reacting", that's about it.

Is anyone truly surprised?
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RippleRock
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by RippleRock »

AuxBatOn wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:29 am What is the definition of “peak”?

Most new cases in a day?
Most deaths in a day?
Most active cases?
Most ICU beds used?
Most ventilators used?
Pick one, as they are all closely related but will have different numbers base on their percentage within the overall context.

No?
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Aviatard
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Aviatard »

RippleRock wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:58 am Unreal. My 6 year old could have foreseen this before the Trudeau Government did.
Then why didn't he?
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by BTD »

RippleRock wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:04 am Out of the National Post today.

COVID-19 reaches peak in Ontario and elsewhere in the country, with fewer people dying than feared.


Under Ontario’s grim modelling released earlier this month, the “best case” scenario had put the number of COVID-19 sufferers in intensive care at around 1,200 as of Monday.
According to Ontario government data, there were 247 people in intensive care on Monday morning, 193 of them on ventilators.
The earlier projections had also called for 1,600 deaths by April 30, and 80,000 cases. As of Monday morning, there were 584 reported deaths, 11,184 confirmed cases and 802 people in hospital.
Officials said the earlier models were reasonable and based on experiences in Italy and other countries, and that frightening data can get people to change their behaviours. The models are designed to plan for what could happen. However, the further out the forecast, the more uncertainty in the predictions. Brown said it’s hard to draw conclusions about mortality. While the expectation now is that Ontario will see a lower number of overall deaths, the ramp up of cases in long-term care homes “obviously makes it hard to predict a number of actual deaths.”

The pandemic curve in nursing homes (there are outbreaks in 127 long-term care homes in Ontario alone) homeless shelters and other places where a lot of people are brought close together is still accelerating upwards.
However, the Ontario curve, most provincial curves and even the national curve are showing signs of bending, Brown said. “We may be at a place where we are seeing roughly the same number of cases every day as we talk about peak.” Discussions are now happening about bringing some elective procedures back online while maintaining the ramped up hospital capacity as a buffer when the economy and society reopens “should we accidentally go back into a period of community spread,” said Matthew Anderson, president and CEO of Ontario Health.
British Columbia is now past the peak of new infections, Alberta is approaching its peak and Ontario and Quebec, “the worst-hit provinces, should reach their peaks within days,” Eric Hoskins, Ontario’s former health minister, recently wrote in the Globe and Mail. He added that barring any dramatic change in the epidemic, it would be reasonable to start cautiously loosening restrictions by early May.
About half of COVID-19 deaths in Canada have occurred in long-term care homes.



THE BEST CASE SCENARIO IN ONTARIO HAD 1200 PROJECTED IN INTENSIVE CARE BY NOW, AS OF MONDAY THEY HAD 247.
50% FROM LONG TERM OLD-AGE CARE HOMES. Meaning only 124 were from the general population.

The Government has clearly mis-managed this. They have used fear to manipulate the population. They really dropped the ball by NOT immediately securing and isolating the elderly in long-term care facilities and the disadvantaged housed in social support centers.

Great work Justin, now send us all the bill. A 5% Covid-19 recovery tax ---in perpetuity--- will suffice. (cuz taxes never seem to go away)
I won’t say this has been handled perfectly. In fact, a lot has been left to be desired, and I won’t defend Trudeau.

However, it is illogical to use the lower case numbers (which include mitigation measures such as social distancing) to argue that those mitigation measures were not required in the first place. We simply don’t know how bad it would have gotten had nothing been done. We only have one case study. It might have been a little worse than now or a lot worse.

That argument is like going skydiving and taking a parachute along for safety. Then after landing safely saying to yourself, well I survived that, why did I even bother with the parachute. Extreme comparison so maybe below is better.

Airbags are useless in cars. They are a waste of resources, they burn people’s hands and most people survive car accidents anyway. That argument ignores the fact that airbags are a significant reason people are surviving the accidents in the first place.
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by goldeneagle »

RippleRock wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:58 am Even if you stick to the actual numbers showing up in hospitals, we are at only a fraction of the "best case" scenario projected overall.
I have no information about Ontario. I have a lot of information about BC. Numbers in BC today are low. The goal of restrictions was to prevent our hospitals from overflowing. The hospitals in general were operating at / near capacity. To create capacity, elective surgery was cancelled, which created a significant amount of capacity to handle the expected influx of Covid-19 patients. At present, the hospitals are able to manage the loads coming in, we do not have a crisis like New York or some parts of Europe. For perspective, roughly 10 days ago, hospitals in New York were telling paramedics to not bring cardiac patients to the hospital if they required resuscitation, there was no capacity, so let the patients pass where they were.

The comparison our local folks are quietly making is to compare BC with Lousiana. Populations are roughly the same. In BC the message has been 'stay home', folks have been doing that, and our hospitals are not overflowing. In Louisana the message has been 'come to church', and they have been cramming folks 2000 at a time into the mega churches. Infection rate in Louisiana is 10x that of BC for a similar population. If our infection rate in BC was that high, then hospitalization rates would be also that much higher. If we had 10x the number of covid patients we do today, there wouldn't be enough beds in the hospitals for the covid patients, never mind all the other folks that are there for things like heart attacks, broken hips, etc.

So many folks just dont 'get it' on the reason for the path we are on, and get focussed on who is dieing from covid. We are on this path so that our hospitals have capacity for _all_ of the incoming patients and are not overflowing with covid-19 patients.
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RippleRock
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by RippleRock »

I never once mentioned the "worst case scenario", I only quoted the "best case", and we are still at only a fraction of that. This means there was either a gross over-estimation, or they lied.

Given that, the need to address or even acknowledge the possibility of (even past) "extreme scenarios" becomes redundant to the point of being silly.

They should have focused immediate attention on the most vulnerable, meaning the elderly and weak living in close proximity. It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out where they are. Any elderly individual with an underlying condition should have been immediately isolated. The mortality rate due to "Covid-19 complications" would have plummeted. The Government patently "failed" to protect them from the outset.

No one should have been able to even approach long-term care facilities without gloves and mask.

IMO.

For what its worth, if the Government wanted to be really honest, they would be only reporting mortality numbers due exclusively to the virus, such as "patient X died of chronic heart disease, complicated by Covid-19". Instead the virus is given all the credit as it suits the "fear" agenda.

I seriously doubt that that Hollywood stars leg was amputated exclusively due to Covid-19. The Media is reporting it that way.
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Rockie
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Rockie »

RippleRock wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:12 am I never once mentioned the "worst case scenario", I only quoted the "best case", and we are still at only a fraction of that. This means there was either a gross over-estimation, or they lied.

Given that, the need to address or even acknowledge the possibility of (even past) "extreme scenarios" becomes redundant to the point of being silly.

They should have focused immediate attention on the most vulnerable, meaning the elderly and weak living in close proximity. It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out where they are. Any elderly individual with an underlying condition should have been immediately isolated. The mortality rate due to "Covid-19 complications" would have plummeted. The Government patently "failed" to protect them from the outset.

No one should have been able to even approach long-term care facilities without gloves and mask.

IMO.
Exactly, “in your opinion” which risks nothing and is consequence free when you get it wrong. It’s also after the fact making it armchair quarterbacking. Our governments at all levels weren’t the best and not by far the worst. I’m not only happy, but proud of how all levels of government and the Canadian people are dealing with this.
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by digits_ »

Rockie wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:18 pm
RippleRock wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:12 am I never once mentioned the "worst case scenario", I only quoted the "best case", and we are still at only a fraction of that. This means there was either a gross over-estimation, or they lied.

Given that, the need to address or even acknowledge the possibility of (even past) "extreme scenarios" becomes redundant to the point of being silly.

They should have focused immediate attention on the most vulnerable, meaning the elderly and weak living in close proximity. It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out where they are. Any elderly individual with an underlying condition should have been immediately isolated. The mortality rate due to "Covid-19 complications" would have plummeted. The Government patently "failed" to protect them from the outset.

No one should have been able to even approach long-term care facilities without gloves and mask.

IMO.
Exactly, “in your opinion” which risks nothing and is consequence free when you get it wrong. It’s also after the fact making it armchair quarterbacking. Our governments at all levels weren’t the best and not by far the worst. I’m not only happy, but proud of how all levels of government and the Canadian people are dealing with this.
Agreed!

The prairies could probably have gotten away with a more Swedish approach, but for Ontario, Quebec and BC, it's probably a good thing they did what they did. I don't often sympathise with politicians, but for these decisions ("wreck the economy" vs "wreck the healthcare system"), I think they handled it properly. Not perfect, but definitely a pass in my book.

But it isn't over yet...
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by mixturerich »

All this tiresome talk about media fear-mongering, yet it’s the government doctors calling the shots or at least making recommendations to the feds.

Are some people implying that the doctors decisions are being influenced by the media? It’s such a dumb argument. Most people aren’t really that scared, they’re just following precautionary steps as instructed.
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by digits_ »

mixturerich wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:46 pm All this tiresome talk about media fear-mongering, yet it’s the government doctors calling the shots or at least making recommendations to the feds.

Are some people implying that the doctors decisions are being influenced by the media? It’s such a dumb argument. Most people aren’t really that scared, they’re just following precautionary steps as instructed.
Well the media exaggerate to sell more papers or get more views. The people read and see what the media are telling. Even when you know they are dramatizing a bit, if you hear it every day, chances are it starts to influence you. Then you have the government doctors being paid by the government. These doctors might interpret the media dramatization as "the will of the people". The government is afraid to piss off voters, so they have a hard time rejecting any recommendations made by the doctors. It's not that farfetched to expect that the media are influencing the final decisions made.

An aviation analogy could be Transport Canada blindly implementing every single TSB recommendation.
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by BTD »

The prairies could probably have gotten away with a more Swedish approach, but for Ontario, Quebec and BC, it's probably a good thing they did what they did. I don't often sympathise with politicians, but for these decisions ("wreck the economy" vs "wreck the healthcare system"), I think they handled it properly. Not perfect, but definitely a pass in my book.

But it isn't over yet...

It’s sad that people don’t realize the false dichotomy of “wreck the economy vs wreck the healthcare”. The Coronavirus would have destroyed the economy without the shutdowns. No doubt shutting down makes it some what worse and a faster impact, but we can’t compare today’s economy with January’s. We need to compare it to what it would have been had we done nothing. Not a simple task as we have only one example to go by.
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by doiwannabeapilot »

re: Taiwan
"Looks like the Taiwanese hired experts who knew what they were doing and haven’t had to change their minds."

Is there something I missed in the news?
As far as I know, they are still doing one of the best jobs in the world.

425 cases, 6 deaths, as of April 20.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-sty ... -1.4229660



hamstandard wrote: Sun Apr 19, 2020 7:48 am
Rockie wrote: Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:45 am Medical and public health experts change their guidance based on increased knowledge, experience and changing circumstances. Unlike the know-nothing blowhards who pull advice out of their ass which is the only alternative.

When I need medical advice I go see my doctor, not the guy down the street who treats furniture for stain protection.

When I bought new furniture last year I called furniture guy down the street, not my doctor.

When the furniture guy and my doctor go somewhere I'm sure both of them prefer I was up front than either one of them. And if I change plans partway through based on changing conditions furniture guy doesn't yank me out of the chair so the doctor can fly or vice versa.

All three of us seem to know our limitations and who the expert really is.
Looks like the Taiwanese hired experts who knew what they were doing and haven’t had to change their minds.

I guess the medical experts are like pilots, some of them crash and burn. If you are lucky, they don’t take the economy with them.

I applaud the Alberta government for listening to the experts in Europe and US when it comes to testing.
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by CaptainKirk »

I think the public won’t put up staying home for much longer. It goes against your civil rights to tell you how many people can gather within your own home.
The prolonged affect of isolation will cause more damage than being infected. We live on an economic planet.
The economy needs to keep moving forward to prevent more severe consequences.

Captain Kirk
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by SAExpress »

RippleRock wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 8:58 am Even if you stick to the actual numbers showing up in hospitals, we are at only a fraction of the "best case" scenario projected overall.

Who would have thunk that the elderly in "close proximity long term care facilities" would produce the largest mortality numbers, and the most overall cases as a percentage of sub-groups?

Unreal. My 6 year old could have foreseen this before the Trudeau Government did. They are good at "reacting", that's about it.

Is anyone truly surprised?

WTF does Trudeau have to do with your argument? Scheer, Singh and all the other leaders have mostly been in support of how the Liberals have handled this. And that’s something that never happens in politics. I didn’t vote for Trudeau (also not for Scheer) but I would argue that the Liberals (and the other parties in support) have done a decent job of handling this. This is uncharted territory for everyone, including the government. Everyone is learning as they go.

One of the reasons the conservatives lost the last two elections is the Trudeau-hate gets so out of control that it’s hard to take you guys seriously. Somehow absolutely everything becomes his fault.

Maybe the reason that we are only at a fraction of the scary numbers is because this issue has been handled relatively well in our country. We don’t need to look any further than our neighbours to the south to see what happens when you don’t have real leadership.

Sure the media dramatizes everything. So do politicians. I’m happy to let the doctors take the lead on this one. Pretty sure they know more than your 6 year old
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by hamstandard »

Rockie wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 1:18 pm
RippleRock wrote: Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:12 am I never once mentioned the "worst case scenario", I only quoted the "best case", and we are still at only a fraction of that. This means there was either a gross over-estimation, or they lied.

Given that, the need to address or even acknowledge the possibility of (even past) "extreme scenarios" becomes redundant to the point of being silly.

They should have focused immediate attention on the most vulnerable, meaning the elderly and weak living in close proximity. It doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure out where they are. Any elderly individual with an underlying condition should have been immediately isolated. The mortality rate due to "Covid-19 complications" would have plummeted. The Government patently "failed" to protect them from the outset.

No one should have been able to even approach long-term care facilities without gloves and mask.

IMO.
Exactly, “in your opinion” which risks nothing and is consequence free when you get it wrong. It’s also after the fact making it armchair quarterbacking. Our governments at all levels weren’t the best and not by far the worst. I’m not only happy, but proud of how all levels of government and the Canadian people are dealing with this.
For those out there who keep us on the path to economic destruction by continuing lockdowns, here is what your ideology is bringing about:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/co ... spartandhp

As someone said, "The cure is worse than the disease".
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