Coronavirus Numbers

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Fanblade
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Fanblade »

Rockie wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:49 am The Dr's in the video are making assumptions that aren't backed up by fact.
Has there ever been subject matter that you haven’t engaged with complete intransigence? :smt040

You have the above quote completely backwards.

The computer models are outputs based on assumptions. Lots of assumptions. It is those assumptions governments have been basing their decision making on.

Why are we making decisions based on assumptions? Because we didn’t have facts based on data at the start. But now real world data is beginning to produce facts that don’t completely align with assumptions.

No one is saying those who made decisions based on assumptions are at fault if those assumptions turn out flawed. Without facts all you have is assumptions. Best to play it safe.

This is the thing. At some point decision making has to shift, and will shift, from assumptions, models and best guesses, to being based on real world fact.

What these Doctors are saying is exactly how government decisions will shift as we understand the virus better. The difference is government is slow. Slow to react going into the Pandemic and now probably slow to adjust as better understanding is achieved.

Take mask wearing as an example. Theory and assumptions say they shouldn’t matter. Yet fact based on data has blown those assumptions out of the water. Now we wear masks.
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goldeneagle
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by goldeneagle »

Fanblade wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:33 am Take mask wearing as an example. Theory and assumptions say they shouldn’t matter. Yet fact based on data has blown those assumptions out of the water. Now we wear masks.
Actually that's not quite true. Early on, the focus was 'prevent you from catching the virus' on the assumption you dont already have it. Wearing a mask will not prevent you from catching the virus if you walk into an area contaminated with airborne droplets, it will in fact increase your chances because once those droplets land on your mask, exhale will not blow them away again.

But the focus has changed and now the assumption is you have the virus, and wearing a mask will contain droplets you exhale, protecting those around you.

It's a complete change in the philosophy, a swtich from defence, to offence.
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mbav8r
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by mbav8r »

I’ve bolded the important part, they are not basing their opinion on truly hard data either. Nobody can because the data does not exist without assumptions, unless you test the entire population for both past or current infection
extrapolate;
extend the application of (a method or conclusion, especially one based on statistics) to an unknown situation by assuming that existing trends will continue or similar methods will be applicable
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Fanblade
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Fanblade »

goldeneagle wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:14 pm
Fanblade wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:33 am Take mask wearing as an example. Theory and assumptions say they shouldn’t matter. Yet fact based on data has blown those assumptions out of the water. Now we wear masks.
Actually that's not quite true. Early on, the focus was 'prevent you from catching the virus' on the assumption you dont already have it. Wearing a mask will not prevent you from catching the virus if you walk into an area contaminated with airborne droplets, it will in fact increase your chances because once those droplets land on your mask, exhale will not blow them away again.

But the focus has changed and now the assumption is you have the virus, and wearing a mask will contain droplets you exhale, protecting those around you.

It's a complete change in the philosophy, a swtich from defence, to offence.
Exactly. The initial assumption was in error because it only looked at protecting the wearer. Taiwan looked at it from a different angle based on data from SARS. Their spread for Covid was contained as a result. Real world outcomes trump theory. Now we have done an about face on masks.

The point is government is just making educated guesses about an unknown. It is highly likely that the mask issue won’t be the last reversal as we learn more.

This isn’t a bad thing. It’s to be expected. It’s also expected that government will change direction slowly. Individuals can express questions about the direction far faster than government can garner consensus and then initiate change. That is why we will likely hear the canary in the coal mine coming from medical professionals.

Just like the late MD in China who called this outbreak. As a front line worker he saw it first. He got punished for it. Treated like a traitor but was right. Eventually the world followed suit.

Today it will be MD’s questioning the methods we are using to manage the pandemic based on what they see first. Not all will be correct. Some will be though. So if you want a feel for where we are heading next, rather than stuck in today? Look for consensus from medical professionals that is based on data and front line experience. Then look for counter arguments from other professionals. Eventually group think from these individuals will eventually lead the way.

It’s not about who’s right but what’s right. It’s also not about who’s wrong. When dealing with an unknown the likelihood of being wrong is very high. How much we have right or wrong at this point is anyone’s guess. But that’s the point.
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RippleRock
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by RippleRock »

Facts are facts, and statistics don't lie.

The overall mortality rate of Covid-10 is low. Low enough to be statistically insignificant in many jurisdictions. There are no cases of mortality in New Brunswick, few in Sask, Manitoba and Alberta. Does this justify a nearly complete lockdown? The Government seems to be using older projection models. Isolate the sick, not the healthy. Since when --in history-- have we isolated the healthy? A vaccine may yet be a year off.

Herd immunity is our only positive salvation, and it is not possible in a "locked-down" society. So do we continue "locked down" indefinitely?

Maybe the Media and Government can start reporting Covid related deaths honestly. Co-morbidity is usually the cause cause of death, not just Covid. The Doctors explained --clearly-- that most people are dying because of underlying factors that are sometimes complicated by Covid to a degree.

In some cases they said that if the person tested positive for Covid, and were asymptomatic then died of another ailment, the virus was given the credit. Like WTF? That's lying, and it needs to end. It spreads fear unnecessarily.
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by 2R »

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Rockie
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Rockie »

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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Rockie »

Fanblade wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:33 am
Rockie wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:49 am The Dr's in the video are making assumptions that aren't backed up by fact.

You have the above quote completely backwards.



No one is saying those who made decisions based on assumptions are at fault if those assumptions turn out flawed. Without facts all you have is assumptions. Best to play it safe.

This is the thing. At some point decision making has to shift, and will shift, from assumptions, models and best guesses, to being based on real world fact.

What these Doctors are saying is exactly how government decisions will shift as we understand the virus better. The difference is government is slow. Slow to react going into the Pandemic and now probably slow to adjust as better understanding is achieved.
The development of facts sounds exactly what I’ve been saying. The authorities don’t think they have enough unlike your two doctors and you believe. And even you don’t sound sure because you refer to these facts as something that “will” present themselves, not “have.

Regarding intransigence, I readily admit the medical and public health authorities know more about this than I do and feel quite strongly that any opinion I form on my own will not be as informed as theirs. Additionally I am not charged with making life or death decisions like the government is.

You can call that intransigence, I call it intelligence.
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Rockie »

RippleRock wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:05 pm

Maybe the Media and Government can start reporting Covid related deaths honestly. Co-morbidity is usually the cause cause of death, not just Covid. The Doctors explained --clearly-- that most people are dying because of underlying factors that are sometimes complicated by Covid to a degree.
Interesting logic. So if a person is hanging by a thread on a respirator and someone comes along and turns the respirator down until you die, it wasn’t the respirator being turned down that caused the death? It was the fact you were on one to begin with?

Doesn’t Covid tipping an already sick person over the edge make it a covid related death?
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rxl
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by rxl »

Rockie wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:40 pm
RippleRock wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:05 pm

Maybe the Media and Government can start reporting Covid related deaths honestly. Co-morbidity is usually the cause cause of death, not just Covid. The Doctors explained --clearly-- that most people are dying because of underlying factors that are sometimes complicated by Covid to a degree.
Interesting logic. So if a person is hanging by a thread on a respirator and someone comes along and turns the respirator down until you die, it wasn’t the respirator being turned down that caused the death? It was the fact you were on one to begin with?

Doesn’t Covid tipping an already sick person over the edge make it a covid related death?
Wouldn’t you have to ask what sort of an outcome the previously compromised victims could have expected if they hadn’t been infected with SARS-CoV-2?
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RippleRock
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by RippleRock »

Rockie wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:40 pm
RippleRock wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:05 pm

Maybe the Media and Government can start reporting Covid related deaths honestly. Co-morbidity is usually the cause cause of death, not just Covid. The Doctors explained --clearly-- that most people are dying because of underlying factors that are sometimes complicated by Covid to a degree.
Interesting logic. So if a person is hanging by a thread on a respirator and someone comes along and turns the respirator down until you die, it wasn’t the respirator being turned down that caused the death? It was the fact you were on one to begin with?

Doesn’t Covid tipping an already sick person over the edge make it a covid related death?
I never said once that it wasn't a "Covid related death"...….the reporting lacks information.

Logic interesting or otherwise is still logic none the less. Again, a terminally ill cancer patient with a week to live gets Covid and dies three days early. Are we hearing that they had fatal lung cancer? Nope, only Covid-19 is reported, and the Media and Government gets to report another victim to justify a draconian shutdown. The strange part is that Covid-19 might have shown no co-morbidity at all, and was not a factor in their death, but only tested positive. --It's counted anyway.-- Would we hear about the same patient dying of the Flu or the common cold three days early, not a chance.

Why are you arguing this? It's shoddy reporting that manipulates the ordinary citizen. All the facts surrounding each death should be made available, so we can draw our own conclusions about it. When the Government is actively curtailing Consitutional rights, we should demand nothing less.

When the statistics put a price toll on the Worldwide economy of --each life-- Covid-19 taken so far at $330,000,000 --- in a lot of cases to only possibly have added a few years or less, where exactly do we draw the economic line? Apparently there is NO line, as we are on track to decimate entire industries, wipe out retirement savings for millions, send hundreds of thousands into personal liquidation, blow the 2020 Federal budget out into space, live with increased rates of stress related spousal/child abuse, alcoholism and increased suicide rates. It's insane.

Humanity has to realize that occasionally a disease or virus comes along and causes some deaths. Mitigate those deaths as best we can by isolating the vulnerable while the rest of the planet keeps going. Once we build herd immunity, we are stronger for it as a species. We have been operating like this for hundreds of thousands of years. We seem to think we're smarter than mother nature lately. The bill for this thinking is in the mail and enroute to us all. Some will pay now, others later, but we will all pay.
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Rockie
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Rockie »

There is so much wrong with your thinking RippleRock there is no point arguing so I’ll simply ask this. Are you going to choose which members of your family die from this or will you just roll the dice and let the odds decide?

By the way don’t forget to put your name in the hat.
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altiplano
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by altiplano »

"There is no point" about sums it up...
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goldeneagle
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by goldeneagle »

RippleRock wrote: Sat Apr 25, 2020 9:53 pm Logic interesting or otherwise is still logic none the less. Again, a terminally ill cancer patient with a week to live gets Covid and dies three days early. Are we hearing that they had fatal lung cancer? Nope, only Covid-19 is reported
This is not true. A terminal patient already in paliative care would not be registered as a covid death, they wouldn't even be tested for it.
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by altiplano »

Apparently doctors and nurses are being asked to link all possible covid deaths to the virus. I'm sure there are some that are not being linked, but I'm equally sure there are many that are.
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Rockie »

altiplano wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:11 am Apparently doctors and nurses are being asked to link all possible covid deaths to the virus.
Apparently?
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by mixturerich »

Hey RippleRock, Mr. Saviour of the Economy, if we go with minimal restrictions to try to save the economy, what would you propose we do with inevitable overflowing hospitals? Do we send people home to die? Do you think people will be on board with this? What about all the healthcare workers? @#$! them, right? They signed up for those jobs, they can adapt to working in a pneumonia war zone, right?

Without enough restrictions, the healthcare systems get overwhelmed. I feel like that’s the exceedingly obvious problem that you somehow fail to grasp.

We’re at a point now where they are beginning to look at lifting restrictions. They’re not stupid and they don’t want the economy to tank any more than you do. It’s just up to them to find a balance that works for the system.

Duh.
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Inverted2
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Inverted2 »

I think a lot of people are starting to question this whole lockdown nonsense. They are way over reporting deaths linked to coronavirus. The local news said 3 people died from it yesterday. All people in their 90's. How many are dying from suicide or substance abuse caused by all the upheaval in our lives? Never hear of normal flu deaths anymore. They're all considered covid......
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YYZSaabGuy
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by YYZSaabGuy »

altiplano wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:11 am Apparently doctors and nurses are being asked to link all possible covid deaths to the virus. I'm sure there are some that are not being linked, but I'm equally sure there are many that are.
A few questions:
1. Do you have a source for this claim, and if so, is it credible?
2. Where do the authorities have the ability to dictate a pre-determined diagnosis to a qualified and licensed medical professional? And if it's the Chinese, how does that square with claims that they are systematically under-reporting the outbreak?
3. Why do you think this is being done? In other words, who stands to benefit, and why?
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Rockie
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Rockie »

Inverted2 wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:35 pm I think a lot of people are starting to question this whole lockdown nonsense. They are way over reporting deaths linked to coronavirus. The local news said 3 people died from it yesterday. All people in their 90's. How many are dying from suicide or substance abuse caused by all the upheaval in our lives? Never hear of normal flu deaths anymore. They're all considered covid......
Or maybe there’s no such thing as Covid 19 and this is just an elaborate Marxist plot to redistribute wealth?

Come on people...
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ayseven
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by ayseven »

I am only going to comment one more time, I promise: people die of all sorts of things, all related to each other. Cancer victims whose cause of death was heart failure etc. I have seen it. The fact is that everything in our bodies is interrelated. Sometimes there is no simple answer, but this is a hard pill for a lot of people to swallow.
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altiplano
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by altiplano »

YYZSaabGuy wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:39 pm
altiplano wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:11 am Apparently doctors and nurses are being asked to link all possible covid deaths to the virus. I'm sure there are some that are not being linked, but I'm equally sure there are many that are.
A few questions:
1. Do you have a source for this claim, and if so, is it credible?
Yup.

2. Where do the authorities have the ability to dictate a pre-determined diagnosis to a qualified and licensed medical professional? And if it's the Chinese, how does that square with claims that they are systematically under-reporting the outbreak? In Canada. Not so much dictating as linking as much as possible to covid even if it's completely secondary, or not even suspected to the reason they are in, check and link it. Everyone getting a CT/MR is getting lungs done too. Check and link, it certainly boosts the numbers...

3. Why do you think this is being done? In other words, who stands to benefit, and why?
I don't know. Just what 2 people have told me, both working in healthcare. Maybe they want to link it so they can justify the response? Maybe it's for their stats? Maybe it's for transmission mitigation? I could only speculate. But it's boosting the numbers.
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Inverted2
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by Inverted2 »

Rockie wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 1:02 pm
Inverted2 wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 12:35 pm I think a lot of people are starting to question this whole lockdown nonsense. They are way over reporting deaths linked to coronavirus. The local news said 3 people died from it yesterday. All people in their 90's. How many are dying from suicide or substance abuse caused by all the upheaval in our lives? Never hear of normal flu deaths anymore. They're all considered covid......
Or maybe there’s no such thing as Covid 19 and this is just an elaborate Marxist plot to redistribute wealth?

Come on people...
Well I don’t know anyone or anyone who knows anyone who has become sick with this disease. I do know this is going to destroy our economy. Judging by what I see most people aren’t self isolating anyway. We work in the airline industry and are going to feel the worst of this.
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by goldeneagle »

altiplano wrote: Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:11 am Apparently doctors and nurses are being asked to link all possible covid deaths to the virus.
This is the kind of outright bullshit that one person dreams up, 10 more repeat, and eventually everybody takes it as a fact.

Just an fyi, nurses do not determine cause of death, that's up to a doctor signing the death certificate. Docs that fib on that are putting license to practice medicine at risk by doing so.

You need to go back to flying airplanes, or to quote your own favorite saying 'STAY IN YOUR OWN FUCKING LANE'.
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propfeather
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Re: Coronavirus Numbers

Post by propfeather »

Someone mentioned Sweden?
This data only goes to Apr. 18th but it paints a picture.
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