Coronavirus Numbers

[mbav8r]

So Raven, as Prime Minister for a day how would you have handled the massive deaths, utter collapse of the medical system and likely inevitable collapse of the economy? Do you think society would just continue on its merry way not noticing or sweating the fact everybody is getting sick and all the old people are suddenly, you know...dead?

Been watching a few too many disaster movies? Massive deaths? Utter collapse of the medical system?


Half of the population wouldn't likely have even gotten it at all as "herd immunity" would have probably happened within six weeks. A quarter would likely have gotten it, but been nearly asymptomatic, showing no symptoms at all. The last quarter would have encompassed all those who got sick and showed symptoms. According to the data 80% of them would have been sent home with a sick note from the doctor. We'd have seen a tenfold increase in the number of people calling in sick maybe. Just my "hysterical" view.

This ---ISN'T--- Ebola, or Smallpox.
Humanity is in no danger of disappearing, even if the handling of this was completely botched in every country.

Ripplerock, I have an honest question, with your opinion on this, are you actively taking precautions when you go out or just carrying on like normal?
I personally don’t want to find out if I get the mild version or the severe, I also won’t go near my loved ones just in case.
The numbers in Canada are with strong and enforceable measures, let’s see how the Georgia experiment goes, maybe they’ll provide some answers as to the herd immunity you’re advocating for.

[Rockie]

Been watching a few too many disaster movies? Massive deaths? Utter collapse of the medical system?

While movies are entertaining I find they don’t provide the hard relevant information needed at a time like this. Newspapers and subject matter experts are much more valuable. What are you using?

[RippleRock]

Been watching a few too many disaster movies? Massive deaths? Utter collapse of the medical system?

While movies are entertaining I find they don’t provide the hard relevant information needed at a time like this. Newspapers and subject matter experts are much more valuable. What are you using?

I'm using actual data that isn't hard to find.

Canada has had 2700 Covid-19 "related" deaths. Not "Covid-19 caused", just that the victims tested positive, regardless of whether or not it was a contributing factor. In Canada we have 37,900,000 citizens as of 2020. Take those 2700 and divide it by the total population and you have .00714%

.00714% of anything is very close to nothing. Put it in a pie chart and its barely noticeable without magnification. If one person in every thousand Citizens in Canada passed on you would have 37,900 deaths. Chances are 80% that one person would be over 65 and in poor health, likely due to a lifetime of poor food choices, lack of proper exercise or tabacco use. Which means they didn't give a crap about their ongoing health anyway.

We are currently less than 10% of one in a thousand.....meaning less than one in ten thousand.

Does this rationalize it? Of course not, but it certainly puts it into proper perspective. Hardly Hollywood material.

[RippleRock]

So Raven, as Prime Minister for a day how would you have handled the massive deaths, utter collapse of the medical system and likely inevitable collapse of the economy? Do you think society would just continue on its merry way not noticing or sweating the fact everybody is getting sick and all the old people are suddenly, you know...dead?

Been watching a few too many disaster movies? Massive deaths? Utter collapse of the medical system?


Half of the population wouldn't likely have even gotten it at all as "herd immunity" would have probably happened within six weeks. A quarter would likely have gotten it, but been nearly asymptomatic, showing no symptoms at all. The last quarter would have encompassed all those who got sick and showed symptoms. According to the data 80% of them would have been sent home with a sick note from the doctor. We'd have seen a tenfold increase in the number of people calling in sick maybe. Just my "hysterical" view.

This ---ISN'T--- Ebola, or Smallpox.
Humanity is in no danger of disappearing, even if the handling of this was completely botched in every country.

Ripplerock, I have an honest question, with your opinion on this, are you actively taking precautions when you go out or just carrying on like normal?
I personally don’t want to find out if I get the mild version or the severe, I also won’t go near my loved ones just in case.
The numbers in Canada are with strong and enforceable measures, let’s see how the Georgia experiment goes, maybe they’ll provide some answers as to the herd immunity you’re advocating for.

I live in a town of 150,000. There are four confirmed cases that we are aware of, hospital waiting rooms are empty, clinics barely busy, no deaths. Everything is closed except for the "essentials" like Home Depot. Apparently its critical that folks get lawn fertilizer, but I cant buy a pair of pants, or get a haircut. I stay at home because nothing is open. Few in my town are taking social isolation seriously. The streets are usually crammed with traffic, so a lot of people are headed somewhere. It actually seems a joke, as the only sign of a lockdown are the closed stores, closed schools, and the massive number of people out for walks or riding bikes.

With only one person in 14,000 actually dying in this country, (that one person likely being a heavy smoker, elderly and in poor physical health) the lack of fear among the healthy, like myself is warranted I believe. One is still entitled to their own opinion in this country ---for now.

[The Raven]

Further to the conversation, life is a balance. For instance, there are approximately 5000 automobile accident deaths each year in Canada. We could reduce that number to close to zero simply by reducing the speed limit to 20 kilometers per hour. We don't reduce the speed limit because it would ruin the economy. So in other words we are willing to accept 5000 car accident deaths in order to keep a healthy economy.

[Rockie]

Further to the conversation, life is a balance. For instance, there are approximately 5000 automobile accident deaths each year in Canada. We could reduce that number to close to zero simply by reducing the speed limit to 20 kilometers per hour. We don't reduce the speed limit because it would ruin the economy. So in other words we are willing to accept 5000 car accident deaths in order to keep a healthy economy.

If reckless driving was highly contagious you can bet the highways would be closed until it was under control.

[RippleRock]

How about banning all tobacco products????

45,000 lives lost in Canada PER YEAR attributed directly to Tobacco use.

From the CBC:

The costs to the Canadian economy add up, among them:

Hospital care, $3.8 billion.
Prescription drugs, $1.7 billion.
Physician care, $1 billion.
Fire damage, $74.4 million
Tobacco research and prevention, $10.7 million
Tobacco control and law enforcement, $122 million

But the biggest costs were the loss to families of having a breadwinner die or become disabled because of a smoking-related illness and the productivity loss to employers of losing a worker to a smoking-related condition.
Loss of productivity, income

Forgone earnings as a result of smoking-attributable premature death and illness was estimated at $9.5 billion, and the cost of short and long-term disability was $7 billion. Those who became ill while in the workforce lost an average of seven years of their productive work life, the study found.

In 2012, 599,390 potential years of life were lost because of smoking, meaning smoking knocked an average of 13 years off the life of people who became ill.

The cost to the economy of losing someone over age 65, who is unlikely to be in the workforce, is lower, Dinh said, but almost 25 per cent of those affected by smoking related illnesses are of working years.

Why not ban them completely??? TAX REVENUE. The Government actually cares little for the health of its citizens. Which seems to point at political "theatrics" in the Covid-19 response.

[Rockie]

How about banning all tobacco products????

Is cancer from smoking contagious?

Your other statistical arguments are specious as well, but even if one took them at face value low death rates are a testament that the measures taken are working. Otherwise you would have to argue that flight safety measures are a waste of money because flying is so safe.

Ridiculous.

[RippleRock]

Further, why is the Government shutting down the Economy to save us all from Covid, when they don't seem interested in saving us from completely avoidable Tobacco related deaths that outnumber Covid-19 deaths by 16x ???

I will remain ridiculous Rockie. A life is a life.

[The Raven]

Because the UK government has closed non COVID related hospital departments and clinics there are 2700 missed cancer diagnoses each week. It’s been 6 weeks now. That’s 16,200 people walking around the UK with cancer that don’t know it.

[RippleRock]

How about banning all tobacco products????

Is cancer from smoking contagious?

Your other statistical arguments are specious as well, but even if one took them at face value low death rates are a testament that the measures taken are working. Otherwise you would have to argue that flight safety measures are a waste of money because flying is so safe.

Ridiculous.

What part of my statistical argument is weak? Break out your calculator if you're confused.

There is a chance mine may be giving erroneous data, perhaps you could clean up my math for the benefit of all.

[Rockie]

[quote=Rockie post_id=<a href="tel:1114719">1114719</a> time=<a href="tel:1588088364">1588088364</a> user_id=5632]
[quote=RippleRock post_id=<a href="tel:1114718">1114718</a> time=<a href="tel:1588088152">1588088152</a> user_id=72447]
How about banning all tobacco products????

Is cancer from smoking contagious?

Your other statistical arguments are specious as well, but even if one took them at face value low death rates are a testament that the measures taken are working. Otherwise you would have to argue that flight safety measures are a waste of money because flying is so safe.

Ridiculous.
[/quote]

What part of my statistical argument is weak?
[/quote]

Presumptions on your part. Your insistence on arguments that are either A or B. Your refusal to recognize “related” as valid. Your refusal to accept the measures as contributing to the low Canadian death rate, or the lack of measures in other places contributing to higher death rates. Your seeming misunderstanding of what “contagious” means. I could go on.

[RippleRock]

The government is trying to "prevent" Covid deaths is it not?? Prevent death, now and in the future?

I understand the term contagious, but even multiplying the number of current deaths by tenfold --still wouldn't approach-- the number avoidable tobacco use takes yearly.

They could largely stamp out up to 45,000 yearly deaths by enacting one piece of legislation.

Make smoking illegal.

Hypocrisy.

[RippleRock]

I'm kinda done Rockie, you go ahead with the last word.

Convince us all that this is far more significant than the numbers are clearly showing, even at --10x-- the current numbers. It will remain statistically insignificant in the larger scheme. But go ahead.

[VeRmiLLioN]

How about banning all tobacco products????

Is cancer from smoking contagious?

Second hand smoke is very CONTAGIOUS.....

[Rockie]

[quote=Rockie post_id=<a href="tel:1114719">1114719</a> time=<a href="tel:1588088364">1588088364</a> user_id=5632]
[quote=RippleRock post_id=<a href="tel:1114718">1114718</a> time=<a href="tel:1588088152">1588088152</a> user_id=72447]
How about banning all tobacco products????

Is cancer from smoking contagious?

[/quote]

Second hand smoke is very CONTAGIOUS.....
[/quote]

No, it’s not. It’s unhealthy and I can certainly attest to the fact it’s unpleasant having grown up with it my whole childhood. But not contagious. Ironically though non-smokers have been practicing “social distancing” from smokers for many years.

Ripplerock. I forgot in my last post to include the fact no public health or medical authorities agree with you. But I have to admit a certain wonder at your conviction you know more than they do. Impressive...almost Trumpian.

[mmm..bacon]

From a friend of mine who is an Orthopedic Surgeon: [Ok, he's not an epidemiologist, but he does have a fairly hight degree of medical training...]

Diamond Princess
3711 people - ALL tested
21+ days in ship
2999 - negative (81%)
712 - positive (19%)
335 - no symptoms (47% or 9% of all)
377 - symptoms (53%. or 10% of all)
10 Deaths (1.4% or 0.26%)

USS Teddy R
4938 crew - ALL tested
30 plus days in ship
4098 - negative (83%)
840 - positive (17%)
92 - hospitalized aboard (11% or 1.9%. of all)
4 - remain of the 92 hospitalized (4.3% or 0.08% of all)
88 - recovered (95.7%)
1 - deaths (0.1% or 0.02%)
Similar numbers from Iceland and Italy town of Vo.
USC, Stanford and NY antibody data shows that 2-5% to as high as 20% of population has already had C19 - no sx.
Thus in NY (1 in 7 to 1 in 5 inn NYC) per Gov. suggests ~ 14% have had C19, not just 268, 581
20, 861 deaths 4/23
Mortality touted is ~21K/268K = 7.8%
More likely ~21K/2.7M=0.5-0.72%
Over 50-75% of mortality seen in at risk; near zero mortality seen in the 0-10 yo population.

The above would seem to suggest a mortality rate of .75% of those who test positive..

[rxl]

How about banning all tobacco products????

45,000 lives lost in Canada PER YEAR attributed directly to Tobacco use.

From the CBC:

The costs to the Canadian economy add up, among them:

Hospital care, $3.8 billion.
Prescription drugs, $1.7 billion.
Physician care, $1 billion.
Fire damage, $74.4 million
Tobacco research and prevention, $10.7 million
Tobacco control and law enforcement, $122 million

But the biggest costs were the loss to families of having a breadwinner die or become disabled because of a smoking-related illness and the productivity loss to employers of losing a worker to a smoking-related condition.
Loss of productivity, income

Forgone earnings as a result of smoking-attributable premature death and illness was estimated at $9.5 billion, and the cost of short and long-term disability was $7 billion. Those who became ill while in the workforce lost an average of seven years of their productive work life, the study found.

In 2012, 599,390 potential years of life were lost because of smoking, meaning smoking knocked an average of 13 years off the life of people who became ill.

The cost to the economy of losing someone over age 65, who is unlikely to be in the workforce, is lower, Dinh said, but almost 25 per cent of those affected by smoking related illnesses are of working years.

Why not ban them completely??? TAX REVENUE. The Government actually cares little for the health of its citizens. Which seems to point at political "theatrics" in the Covid-19 response.

Smoking should be banned. 100%.
According to the Physicians for a Smoke-Free Economy, in FY 2018-19 tobacco taxes (mostly from cigarette sales) generated $8.3B in revenue, about half of what smoking costs the economy annually. The revenue generated doesn’t even come close to covering the financial burden to society. Smoking is a personal choice. Infection with a novel and potentially lethal virus is not.

[goldeneagle]

You guys keep going on about how you think the public health folks got it all wrong. Lets re-stat the problem, but do it in aviation terms you can all recognize.

You are on a widebody aircraft of some type, going say YYZ to YVR, flying along fat and happy in the vicinity of Manitoba drinking a coffee. A fire light comes on suggesting there may be a fire in one of the cargo holds full of baggage. do you

a) Activate an extinguisher, declare an emergency, then divert to nearest suitable airport when fire light stays on, ask for trucks to roll while on approach.
b) Ponder it for a minute, contemplate your coffee cup, then tell you partner in the cockpit to just ignore the light, it's probably an indicator error, will get excited if the folks in the back start reporting flames coming thru the floor.

Assume for a moment you chose option A. Now you are on the ground and the belly compartment is opened, you see a small charred area in one corner. Do you

a) Pat yourself on the back for activating the extinguisher early and putting the fire out.
b) Grumble and complain because now you have all the hassles of dealing with a major diversion for a fire that was already out.

Tell me RippleRock, are you really going to choose option B and ignore the fire warning? It's essentially what you are bitching about, public health folks didn't just ignore the warnings they got. They did the public health equivalent of 'activate the fire extinguisher'.

but hey, I do understand why you are saying what you did. In 1958 a bunch of miners blew your brains out:- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ripple_Rock

[VeRmiLLioN]

[quote=Rockie post_id=<a href="tel:1114719">1114719</a> time=<a href="tel:1588088364">1588088364</a> user_id=5632]
[quote=RippleRock post_id=<a href="tel:1114718">1114718</a> time=<a href="tel:1588088152">1588088152</a> user_id=72447]
How about banning all tobacco products????

Is cancer from smoking contagious?

Second hand smoke is very CONTAGIOUS.....
[/quote]

No, it’s not. It’s unhealthy and I can certainly attest to the fact it’s unpleasant having grown up with it my whole childhood. But not contagious. Ironically though non-smokers have been practicing “social distancing” from smokers for many years.

[/quote]

HAHAHA.

Ironically..why the social distancing from smokers? Ironically, so they don't get their lungs infected for not smoking!

Anyway, I be preemptive...

sure. Ok. nope. perhaps. Ask David Suzuki.

[Rockie]

Ironically..why the social distancing from smokers? Ironically, so they don't get their lungs infected for not smoking!

For me it's because I can't stand the smell after having it blown in my face for 15 years. Do you know what "contagious" means?

[VeRmiLLioN]

Ironically..why the social distancing from smokers? Ironically, so they don't get their lungs infected for not smoking!

For me it's because I can't stand the smell after having it blown in my face for 15 years. Do you know what "contagious" means?

See answers above.

[Rockie]

So then I guess coal dust is contagious. Smog. Asbestos. Inhaling bleach.

Why don’t you just look it up?

[Jimmyh787]

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/ ... ly-thought

Thoughts?

[pelmet]

Looks like the Quebec government listened to what I had to say.....

viewtopic.php?p=1111956#p1111956

viewtopic.php?p=1112166#p1112166

viewtopic.php?p=1112249#p1112249

viewtopic.php?p=1112348#p1112348

https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec ... -immunity/

The herd immunity idea is controversial even in epidemiology circles but is often considered the lesser of two evils.
“The minute we stop the current confinement, the virus will spread more and we will see an increase in the number of cases, hospital and ICU admissions,” Ste-Justine Hospital medical microbiologist and epidemiologist Dr. Caroline Quach said in an interview.
“But the goal is to control the spread so our health-care capacity is not overwhelmed. Since 80 to 90 per cent of the population will have mild disease, it is a possible thing to do.”

As usual, Rockie was wrong. Time for me to send out more recommendations to the appropriate authorities in other jurisdictions.

Pelmet...saving the economy while protecting the population as best as reasonably possible.