AC and TRZ Agree to Terminate Arrangement

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altiplano
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by altiplano »

So maybe you shouldn't write things like that then?

Whether alluding to moving AC flying to AT, or your statement about being sure that AC guys will be a "good FO for you" or others. Stop being antagonistic about it.
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TFTMB heavy
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by TFTMB heavy »

altiplano wrote: Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:53 pm So maybe you shouldn't write things like that then?

Whether alluding to moving AC flying to AT, or your statement about being sure that AC guys will be a "good FO for you" or others. Stop being antagonistic about it.
In all fairness, if you are going to comment on one side of that stupid discussion those two are having perhaps you can ask the one on your side of the fence to show a bit more class.
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FL320
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by FL320 »

When I talk to my friends (even the ones working in the aviation industry) I have noticed their main concern about going back to flying is the probability of getting the virus in the confined cabin. You may probably help in sharing the info on how the air system works.
There is an interview (in French) with the Engineering Director of Airbus, saying that it takes 3 min for the entire cabin air to be recycled through HEPA filters.

here is a video from Delta: https://news.delta.com/video-air-filtr ... abins-safe

IATA: https://www.iata.org/contentassets/f11 ... uality.pdf
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GATRKGA
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by GATRKGA »

I agree with FL320.

99% of transat guys are your chill, happy to get whatever concessions possible type people.
If the likes of fl280 can show some class, you’d find that most transat guys are the same dudes that welcome you with open arms as they do when you jumpseat with them, and make sure that not only you get club class, but will delay a flight to make sure no pilot is left behind.

Really wish you Ac boys and girls have a grasp of what sort of culture is joining you.

On a completely different note.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/air-ca ... -1.5551402

If these hypotheses from AC are to be taken seriously, it looks like the Ac transat deal will go through. Why wouldn’t it if things are normal by Christmas?
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rudder
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by rudder »

GATRKGA wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 9:37 am
“.......if things are normal by Christmas?”
You are kidding, right?

If capacity was back to 60-70% of plan by Xmas that would be a minor miracle. Most operators expecting much less. Perhaps a good percentage of city pairs will be serviced, but the amount of seats offered will be substantially less than otherwise expected pre-COVID reflecting decreased demand.

And most adversely affected will be international routes. Canada and Canadian operators can not dictate how foreign jurisdictions decide to treat visitors, nor the personal sentiments of the population as to whether they are willing to travel by air. The virus does not recognize borders and portions of the globe are just seeing the onset of the spread.

‘Normal’ is likely somewhere out in the late 2021 or early 2022 time frame. Airline capacity will see 2019 levels sometime after that.
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JoeyBarton
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by JoeyBarton »

Do you see the deal happening Rudder? You usually show a lot of knowledge and wisdom on this forum..
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FL-280
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by FL-280 »

To be fair, a lot of the posts here were quite nasty on both sides. One side posted bad stuff, the other side said bad stuff to piss guys off. This has been 30 pages of a pissing contest. And yes, I fully participated....

At the end of the day, we can’t control this and will have to live with the consequences of corporate decisions. We will argue about seniority and it will probably be arbitrated.

If you guys want to make me some sort of scape goat for the TS merger, I assure you the sentiment of not wanting a merger from AC pilots is very real. Did I blow off steam and say stuff in the heat of the moment? Yup, but its frigging avcanada for crying out loud, kinda what its for.

As for the “horrible career choice” comment, I will explain and take that back in a way. Transat seems like a fun place to work, fun destinations, nice equipment, good schedules etc... can one compare Transat with the career stability Air Canada brings ? No, absolutely not.
If given the choice between TS and AC and one was to chose TS, yes I believe that would be a bad choice. Now I do understand, downturns and bad aviation times have limited options for pilots are guys go where they get a call.

For the record, here is my honest opinion on the merger.

1) I rather it doesnt happen
2) if it does happen, a ratio merger with, yes a penalty to Transat pilots, taking into account career expectations, pay etc is fine. No BOTL, no doh, something that makes sense. I stand by 2-5 years penalty for TS, in the current environment, it makes sense.
3) 1 list, no scope changes, we will fight about it and then we will have to get along as one.

All the best to everyone, I will try to stay out of this thread the best I can, because obviously this has become an fl280 crusade. An account that was created to blow off steam

Fl280
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by FL320 »

Wizzair is restarting today
https://www-bristolpost-co-uk.cdn.amppr ... 094633.amp

To limited airports in Europe but it’s a good move. Let’s see how it goes; other airlines will follow. Wizz CEO thinks that leisure travel will recover quicker than the business travel.

China too: Huge Increase In Chinese Air Travel As Lockdown Eased
https://simpleflying-com.cdn.ampprojec ... surge/amp/
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Last edited by FL320 on Fri May 01, 2020 11:11 am, edited 3 times in total.
Dry Guy
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Dry Guy »

What happens if AC just waits for Transat to go bankrupt?
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FL320
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by FL320 »

Dry Guy wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 10:28 am What happens if AC just waits for Transat to go bankrupt?
It’s like waiting to see a unicorn 🦄. AC is smart enough to know it’s not gonna happen...
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rudder
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by rudder »

JoeyBarton wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 10:04 am Do you see the deal happening Rudder? You usually show a lot of knowledge and wisdom on this forum..
I have no reliable crystal ball nor visibility in to the transaction.

Prior to COVID, notwithstanding labour related issues, I believe that CR could make a solid business case to acquire TRZ. It would have been consummated assuming no gross distortion from the Feds in the ability for AC to set capacity and routes. The math added up based on the market that existed at the time and where it was projected to go.

Now things are different.

AC is being asked to expend cash at a time when cash is critical. I always assumed that AC would divest of some TRZ assets to partially refund the transaction. What is the value of those assets now? And who is in a position to purchase those assets?

Capacity. Every airline on the planet is trying to figure out how deep a capacity reduction and for how long. Who would want to be doing that while acquiring a competitor?

Revenue. Normally 1+1=2. AC believed that acquiring TRZ was probably 2.x or at least that yields would significantly improve. What does that look like now?

In the long run, consolidation with TRZ probably still makes sense for AC. But it has to be able to afford it in the short run.

If this transaction goes through, it may come with the financial support of both the Federal and Provincial/QC governments. It may also only happen at a lower price than $18/share. Of all of the parties worthy of protection, the TRZ shareholders are the least deserving.

I will watch along with everybody else to see what happens.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by aerodude »

rudder wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 10:43 am
If this transaction goes through, it may come with the financial support of both the Federal and Provincial/QC governments. It may also only happen at a lower price than $18/share. Of all of the parties worthy of protection, the TRZ shareholders are the least deserving.

I will watch along with everybody else to see what happens.
Agree, this deal may or may not go through. But if it does its 100% certainty AC will no longer pay 18$/share.
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FL320
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by FL320 »

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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Fanblade »

FL320 wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 11:53 am You may be right..
https://ca.reuters.com/article/domesti ... AKBN22D610
My read between the lines. Of course it is biased because of my expectations.

Let's renegotiate the deal or else we will seriously start looking at other options. Do you want to take that chance?

My guess is a renegotiation and a delayed consummation.

Slashed purchase price and Quebec $.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Localizer »

The article highlights the sentiment of others on this thread, AC can't walk out of the deal based on the MAE clause which covers outbreaks.

I think Rousseau should be a little more cautious about what he says in public .. at this point both airlines are equally affected by Covid-19.

I find it odd that this article (May 1st) questions when flying will resume, yet April 30th's article quotes Tim Strauss saying we'll see significant flying by Christmas .. Conflicting points?

I'm willing to bet the vacation market is going to see a big uptick in bookings. I think people are tired of sitting in their houses and dealing with the negative media day in and day out, they want out and they want to get away. I know some of you will say "they don't/won't have the money for a vacation", I've watched millennials and they're not as conservative as previous generations, they have no problem charging it to Visa and MasterCard.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Localizer »

My read between the lines. Of course it is biased because of my expectations.

Let's renegotiate the deal or else we will seriously start looking at other options. Do you want to take that chance?

My guess is a renegotiation and a delayed consummation.

Slashed purchase price and Quebec $.
That could explain why they're lobbying the Quebec government together?
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Fanblade »

Localizer wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 2:16 pm
My read between the lines. Of course it is biased because of my expectations.

Let's renegotiate the deal or else we will seriously start looking at other options. Do you want to take that chance?

My guess is a renegotiation and a delayed consummation.

Slashed purchase price and Quebec $.
That could explain why they're lobbying the Quebec government together?
That’s my feeble attempt at trying to read the tea leaves.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Localizer »

In a BNN Bloomberg article:

Air Canada’s takeover of Transat A.T. Inc. is facing similar scrutiny, with analysts and investors speculating about whether the deal's $720-million price tag will be renegotiated. While declining to comment on the fate of any specific transactions, Singer and Soliman agree most buyers remain motivated to get previously-agreed-upon deals done.

Lots of opinions out there ..
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by C-nile »

This is a very real cutaway of the pilot profession on this forum. All facets are are apprehensive of the unknown. All pilots can attest that the unknown bothers them to no end. Everything must be known planned and executed with careful professional deliberation. Everyone from FL280 to Fl320 and if there is a FL410 or Just 17000ft, are only placing the best interest of those and their peers first. It is logical and fundamentally human.
I am not any more knowledgeable than the next but I can say this with certainty: most of us that read through here have a vested interest in the outcome. Most likely have 15+ years to deal with the choice of career. we are not all going to make it through this unscathed cancer, heart disease, a fall off the ladder, jealous ex-wife and statistically that one poor bloke who caught covid are not joining is this whole arduous journey. Those that are lucky enough to look back on this will remember it not as career defining but as a small inconvenient inconsistency.
I personally stand to have 600 Transat pilots position themselves senior to me based on seniority at Air Canada. I personally hope that each and everyone of them join us here. They are all likeminded individuals that by no luck more than fate ended up where they did.
In the 20 years I have left I will gladly give a couple of years of my career to ensure that you guys and gals have an exceptional career, because I got lucky with a more “stable job” at AC.
Let’s take down WestJet together! ;)
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Dry Guy »

Dry Guy wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 10:28 am What happens if AC just waits for Transat to go bankrupt?
It sounds like they are going to try to restart operations this summer with just 321NEO to stave off bankruptcy. I don't think Transat will operate any wide-bodies for a long time, if ever again.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Localizer »

It sounds like they are going to try to restart operations this summer with just 321NEO to stave off bankruptcy. I don't think Transat will operate any wide-bodies for a long time, if ever again.
Ah .. waiter, I'll have what he's smoking.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Sharklasers »

C-nile wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 8:27 pm I personally stand to have 600 Transat pilots position themselves senior to me based on seniority at Air Canada. I personally hope that each and everyone of them join us here. They are all likeminded individuals that by no luck more than fate ended up where they did.
In the 20 years I have left I will gladly give a couple of years of my career to ensure that you guys and gals have an exceptional career, because I got lucky with a more “stable job” at AC.
Let’s take down WestJet together! ;)
You must be a charitable person if your desire is to put some peoples careers ahead of those of your peers and colleagues. Not that how any of us feel will change the outcome but I would rather keep food on my own children’s plate than sacrifice years of career progression, hundreds of thousands of dollars and likely extra years of retirement for the sake of kumbaya. This is a sentiment shared by 99% of Air Canada pilots and 99% of the worlds population who have any sense of self preservation.
The fact is that if someone wants the career stability of working for a national carrier then they should work for a national carrier. A Hundred former Transat pilots have made that choice over the years and left an excellent sun-n-fun vacation carrier to join the bottom of the list at AC. I value my career and the choices I made.
If all options for the deal are still on the table as the unnamed source says I do hope that AC puts their employees first and backs out then deals with the fallout which will certainly cost less than $750 million plus TRZs liabilities and the carrying costs of a now defunct operation.

My last question is you say let’s take down Westjet, If the day comes that Westjet is on the ropes would you happily put 2500 of their careers ahead of your peers?

Edit: C-Nile makes it clear that he does not work for AC in his posts dated Feb 26 but aspires to work at AC ‘one day’.
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Last edited by Sharklasers on Sat May 02, 2020 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Fanblade »

Another article along the same vein.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/exclusi ... 2020-05-01
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by Fanblade »

Sharklasers wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 7:20 am
My last question is you say let’s take down Westjet, If the day comes that Westjet is on the ropes would you happily put 2500 of their careers ahead of your peers?
That’s the rub isn’t it. Historically in Canada, when airlines compete and one wins the competition, the prize is a merger.

Wardair, Canadian, Transat........

The company you worked tirelessly to drive into the ground becomes a takeover target. All that work, time, energy, money and then let someone else pick up the booty? Not a chance. Buy them dirt cheap yourself and make sure the competition remains where you put it. No longer existent.

Historically it is not in employees or in the competitive interest of the general public to fight to the death.
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Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Increased Purchase Price to $18 per Share

Post by jetpilot »

Dry Guy wrote: Sat May 02, 2020 3:44 am
Dry Guy wrote: Fri May 01, 2020 10:28 am What happens if AC just waits for Transat to go bankrupt?
It sounds like they are going to try to restart operations this summer with just 321NEO to stave off bankruptcy. I don't think Transat will operate any wide-bodies for a long time, if ever again.

Where do you take this information ? yes we do restart with A321 Neo LR and some A330 they will adjust ...
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