When do you think flying will be back to february 2020 level

[Heliian]

40yo pilot in training here. I made a choice, and I will see it through. I lived through the fall of the Berlin Wall, 9/11, and one or two pandemics. We will see the other side of this.

When do I think flying will be back to February 2020 levels? In February 2022. But it will be back. It's gonna be rough, but not 9/11 rough.

I need to believe this, because I've made my choice. But I do not think I'm wrong.

I wish you the best but this we are dealing with now is like 10 times worse than 9/11.

Oh my God, that's 9110!

[Inverted2]

Like Beverly Hills 90210 bad.

['97 Tercel]

When I talk with, properly socially distant of course, most people outside the industry the thought of getting on an airplane with the confined spaces and the recycled air for leisure travel is viewed as VERY unappealing

well of course...

[FL320]

When I talk with, properly socially distant of course, most people outside the industry the thought of getting on an airplane with the confined spaces and the recycled air for leisure travel is viewed as VERY unappealing

The problem of most people is ignorance.
Then when you give to these people a copy of the interview with Airbus’s Director of Engineering who explains how the cabin air works; passing trough HEPA filters killing 99,99% of virus and germs within 3 min for the entire cabin, then these people change their mind and see themselves having a nice week in Cancun.
I know many people outside the industry who are just waiting for vacation far away from home! Another one just asked me yesterday if I could advise him when Transat restarts as he wants to see his family. Another friend (financially broke) want to book a vacation to Cuba asap...
Many analysts see the leisure travel recovering faster than business travel and the cheapest operators will be given priority.

[ayseven]

https://www.amazon.ca/Isopropyl-Alcohol ... B007AZ7YU2

[FL320]

Wizz air restarts today:
https://www-bristolpost-co-uk.cdn.ampp ... 094633.amp

[Heliian]

When I talk with, properly socially distant of course, most people outside the industry the thought of getting on an airplane with the confined spaces and the recycled air for leisure travel is viewed as VERY unappealing

The problem of most people is ignorance.
Then when you give to these people a copy of the interview with Airbus’s Director of Engineering who explains how the cabin air works; passing trough HEPA filters killing 99,99% of virus and germs within 3 min for the entire cabin, then these people change their mind and see themselves having a nice week in Cancun.
I know many people outside the industry who are just waiting for vacation far away from home! Another one just asked me yesterday if I could advise him when Transat restarts as he wants to see his family. Another friend (financially broke) want to book a vacation to Cuba asap...
Many analysts see the leisure travel recovering faster than business travel and the cheapest operators will be given priority.

"recycled" air.

The problem is most people don't know how pressurization systems work.

A pressurized aircraft does more air changes per hour than most buildings.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Extracts of Lufhansa CEO Carsten Spohr speech to the LH AGM due 5 May :
in less that 65 days we are back where we were 65 years ago
we carry at the moment 3000 pax a day , where we used to carry 300.000 a day
700 of our 760 aircraft are grounded .
Freight is in high demand, we removed the seats of 4 A330 to carry freight and plan to modify more , we call them "Preighters"
Small intra european restart expected in fall 2020 on limited scale..
New normal not expected before 2023. by them we will be a smaller airline with 100 aircraft less and 10.000 staff less.

[FL320]

IATA Appeals to Canadian Government for Immediate Relief for Airlines in Face of COVID-19 Crisis
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-05-01-01/

But of course..working on the ban of assault weapons is way more important ! This government is a joke.

[digits_]

IATA Appeals to Canadian Government for Immediate Relief for Airlines in Face of COVID-19 Crisis
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-05-01-01/

But of course..working on the ban of assault weapons is way more important ! This government is a joke.

Right. Because a government can only work on one issue at a time. The only people making decisions about airline relief are all stuck working on weapon legislation.

[FL320]

L

[goldeneagle]

IATA Appeals to Canadian Government for Immediate Relief for Airlines in Face of COVID-19 Crisis
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-05-01-01/

But of course..working on the ban of assault weapons is way more important ! This government is a joke.

If airlines give customers refunds for services not delivered, then maybe talk about some financial help. As long as they just give vouchers, they already have that money in the form of an interest free loan from customers, and governments covering wages while they figure out how the downsizing is going to work. That's more help than most businesses are getting, most are required by law to give refunds for services not delivered.

[FL320]

IATA Appeals to Canadian Government for Immediate Relief for Airlines in Face of COVID-19 Crisis
https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-05-01-01/

But of course..working on the ban of assault weapons is way more important ! This government is a joke.

If airlines give customers refunds for services not delivered, then maybe talk about some financial help. As long as they just give vouchers, they already have that money in the form of an interest free loan from customers, and governments covering wages while they figure out how the downsizing is going to work. That's more help than most businesses are getting, most are required by law to give refunds for services not delivered.

I agree with you; and they should give back the money to the customers. That’s what I would be expecting as a passenger.

[dot123]

Even if it gets back to normal, it won't be the same.

[piperdriver]

Even if it gets back to normal, it won't be the same.

Why will it not be the same?

[Hilroy]

3rd quarter is estimated to be a 25% total capacity vs 2019 Q3. Still about 10% for Q2.

[Jetfly]

In the UK the Q3 is even looking rubbish. From what I have read, flying pax should increase more due June. It is going to be hard.

[dialedin]

Our sector will be one of the last to get the full green light. Business travel has been pushed towards online meetings. They were headed that way anyway, but because that tech has existed in some form for years, I think most business travel will return. Some travelers will be affected by income loss for a while, and others will be fine. Lots of people are mitigating their problems by tightening their spending. Retirees, gov't workers and a few other sectors haven't missed a pay cheque. Medical professionals will take a much deserved break at some point.

I'm one of those people who havent missed a paycheck....i work in agriculture. And the wife and i already have plans to travel once we get the green light, but not on an airplane, international or domestically for awhile. LIkely be driving someplace and spend some time by the ocean somewhere.

I'm also working toward a PPL (hence my being here), which has been put on hold as well. So as stated elsewhere, i think schools are going to have a hayday long before anyone else in this sector. Soon as i get that call that my instructor is back in business, i'm going to be going like mad to get my last 10 or so hrs in and a written done....before the next wave of this comes!

[golden hawk]

40yo pilot in training here. I made a choice, and I will see it through. I lived through the fall of the Berlin Wall, 9/11, and one or two pandemics. We will see the other side of this.

When do I think flying will be back to February 2020 levels? In February 2022. But it will be back. It's gonna be rough, but not 9/11 rough.

I need to believe this, because I've made my choice. But I do not think I'm wrong.

I wish you the best but this we are dealing with now is like 10 times worse than 9/11.

Oh my God, that's 9110!

For those who didn't get it.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZcZ6eJoxeE

A movie that never stops being funny!

[sjatana]

It took years for the industry to get to where it was before the virus. I imagine it will be the same this time around. This is a tough pill to swallow but it's our reality. Who knows how long it will take...

The cards will fall the way they will. I've found having fewer expectations leads to fewer disappointments. Make the best of what you have now and the time that you have. Death, taxes and uncertainty are the guarantees of life.

[RedAndWhiteBaron]

Much Much more than a bump or a temporary slowdown. I don’t want to be right about this, but I think that we are going to feel the echo of COVID 19 for a decade.

Alright, so let me pose this question...

As someone who is (or at least, was) looking to be a bush pilot for a good number of undetermined years, halfway through training, what does my future look like?

['97 Tercel]

I think probably not destroyed -- just add 3-5 years onto your original plans. If that still works ok, keep at it - if not then I guess bail out and do something different (like become a virologist)

[Stayfly121]

I agree with your perspective. Your typical leisure traveler is completely different in todays day. Young people are willing to take the risks. For older folks, yes there will be concerns but for the young generation, the live fast die young generation, they'll hop on a plane the next chance they get to head over to Bali. For the industry people that are concerned about the money aspect, yes it will hold back the smarter folks from leisure travelling but with with the current power of social media, young adults with credit cards and and some left of CERB money will be ready to book their tickets. I believe there will be an initial spike in leisure travel for people that have been locked up due to this virus. It will slow down and then eventually pick back up gradually. The moment there a vaccine available, we'll being to see the trajectory take a positive turn.

godspeed

[leftoftrack]

Never, it'll never be the same

[fishface]

Never, it'll never be the same

Why though? That’s what was said after 9/11.
Oh but this time it’s different. That’s what was said after 9/11.

The demand for air travel has been steadily increasing every year every year every year. I think it’s just a pause and we’ll get over it.
To say it’ll never be the same? I dunno..