The Return to Normal?

[Rockie]

"People are already done with this."

Yes indeed, large numbers of people are certainly “done” with Covid 19. The ones with brains though understand that Covid 19 isn’t “done” with people. In its simple, microbial way the virus seems smarter than many humans. It certainly has a much longer attention span.

[Don Cherry]

The airlines can't say that the future is promising otherwise they won't get any help from their governments. Airlines need this "apocalyptic" talk to ease employees and get help from governments.
I'm not saying the situation isn't bad but as I can see when I go out or talk to people, yes most people are done with it and will travel again as soon as possible.

[mbav8r]

Well it certainly can’t get much worse.

I wouldn't be too sure about that.

At an anonymous Airline (who I can't name).

Tentative minimal operations to re-start in the next 2 months. This is subject to change and will depend on demand and whether borders are open.

Planning is to be at just over 50% of previous capacity in 1 year from now. Return to previous levels is expected in 3 years.

This represents the most "Optimistic" scenario.

Staff have been informed that it's currently only about the survival of the Airline and there are no guarantees for jobs or salaries going forward.

I don't believe the above to be a unique situation - this is what most Airlines are looking at imho.

People are itching to bust out everywhere, right now. Kids are travelling in groups all over. The local skateboard park had over 50 kids today. The local Home Depot is hammered --all the time--, as is Walmart. Very few masks. The toilet paper shelves are full in every store. People are hauling their camping trailers out of storage. I know some who are looking at booking Mexico in September as the deals will be incredible. People are already done with this.

Three months ago was a "long time" ago given whats transpired. Three months from now, everything will change again. To predict what will happen by Christmas is a bit far fetched unless you have a functioning crystal ball. 50% capacity a year from now, like next May? We'll definitely have emergency antibody protection by then, and likely a vaccine of sorts that protects at least a percentage of the population. Rapid testing will have evolved as will effective social distancing programs. Mass herd immunity will have been attained to a degree.

How can you predict --anything-- a year out, let alone a full Aviation recovery in three?? That's 36 months from now, an eternity given the speed of the outbreak and the flattening of the curve. I wouldn't remotely call it an "optimistic outlook". Given that this "pandemic" has taken only one life in ten thousand in this country, ( most being in long term care homes, over 70 --AND-- with underlying medical issues) the fear level is statistically DUMB. (that's for you Rockie)

The public has gotten a taste of mass, decently priced air travel. Most know that this life is no dress rehersal, they can't do the next three years over, and they intend to go on living. They won't be giving up air travel to vacation by car in Flin Flon anytime soon.

We have never been here before, so to predict anything is a bit of a joke, and it becomes more so as the timeline extends. Follow the social trends, and watch the statistics. They don't lie.

Most are intelligent enough to not require the Government to interpret the actual data for them. 4000 deaths in a population of nearly 40 million is 1 in 10,000. Chances are you don't know anyone who knows someone who died or was permanently compromised by Covid-19......and you likely won't.

Round and round we go, you need to realize that these LOW numbers are because of the strong measures taken and enforced by provinces, you see that don’t you? If not, I don’t know what to say, maybe join the protesters and see if it works out for you!

[Inverted2]

2 million jobs lost in April alone. 20 million south of the border. Even if these peoplekind are done with the virus and want to travel, their bank accounts may say otherwise.

[palebird]

You do realise that there are first world countries that did not do "lockdown" and they are fine. You do understand that don't you?? Sweden, South Korea, Taiwan to name a few. It is not necessary to destroy the economyover Covid. And in the meantime what about TB? Highly contagious.Still alive and well in Canada and the world. Why don't we lock down over that?

[mbav8r]

You do realise that there are first world countries that did not do "lockdown" and they are fine. You do understand that don't you?? Sweden, South Korea, Taiwan to name a few. It is not necessary to destroy the economyover Covid. And in the meantime what about TB? Highly contagious.Still alive and well in Canada and the world. Why don't we lock down over that?

Define fine please, Sweden has a death rate per million three times Canada’s and its accelerating. They also asked for voluntary isolation and distancing which a good majority bought into. Look at the UK, they initially did nothing, how did that work out, to be honest I can’t argue anymore with stupidity, there’s is ample evidence to varying degrees of do nothing, do something and strong measures, the strong measures seems to work best. Time will tell but the US appears to be regretting or backtracking some of the decisions to open too early.
Please, got get yourself infected and report back how things worked out for you, I will continue to follow the guidance of our health professionals and fucken common sense!!

[MrAviator19]

You do realise that there are first world countries that did not do "lockdown" and they are fine. You do understand that don't you?? Sweden, South Korea, Taiwan to name a few. It is not necessary to destroy the economyover Covid. And in the meantime what about TB? Highly contagious.Still alive and well in Canada and the world. Why don't we lock down over that?

Might have to do with the fact that TB can be cured?
But when you have a brand spankin' new, highly contagious strain of the flu that's infecting & killing people in record numbers, things have to be approached a bit differently. The mortality rate might be lower than other known illnesses, but the whole point of imposing restrictions/lock-downs is to not create an overwhelming burden on the healthcare system especially when the nature of the problem and how to fight it is still largely unknown. You don't win a war by getting martyred, you win it by killing the enemy and locking down is our strongest weapon right now. The hit on the economy, as bad as it may be, is just an inevitable casualty of this war.

And people in countries like Sweden, South Korea, Taiwan etc. inherently have a different mindset than your average North American. If they're advised to maintain social distance or put a damn mask on their faces every time they go out, they actually comply. The sense of social responsibility in such places is much higher than in North America. How else could you explain Japan going through 4 billion masks a year in a normal world? That, in my opinion, should be the standard for calling any country a "first world" nation - where there's a collective conscious effort to make the place worth living for present and future generations. Sadly, we'll never see anything remotely close to that in North America because this continent has been inhabited by majority delinquents.

MrA

[MrAviator19]

...

[RippleRock]

I don’t care how people feel about the man, but he is undeniably brilliant. Take note:


Conrad Black: Fear of COVID-19 is overblown, it's time to get the economy moving again

The danger of death for 80 per cent of people is not statistically significant, and there is no excuse for continuing any substantial part of the lockdown in respect of them.


Conrad Black
May 8, 2020
4:13 PM EDT


It is possible to become demoralized by the enthusiasm an inordinate number of Canadians seem to have to continue the coronavirus shutdown. The generally capable mayor of Toronto, my friend of many years, John Tory, who’s usually a sensible man, is now being lampooned even by soft-left elements of the media for trying to prevent the public from crowding into High Park and other public places to enjoy the sight and aroma of the cherry blossoms, a much anticipated rite of spring. This is starting to resemble the Dutch Tulip madness of the 17th century, where individual tulip flowering plants, which had only recently been developed, could sell for the current equivalent of over $50,000, and we are discussing the frugal and sober Dutch, not a nationality more accustomed to taking leave of its collective senses.

Canada recorded 4,404 coronavirus deaths as of Thursday night; about 80 per cent of them are among the 20 per cent of people over the age of 60, and usually with additional health problems that have compromised their immune systems. Thus, we have discovered with the data that has come in in the last two months, and especially from the over eight million tests in the United States, that we have a significant problem for a fifth of the people and a minimal problem for the great majority. In Canada this means that among people over 65 there has been about one fatality for each 2,200 people, or one-22nd of one per cent, which are pretty good odds for the elderly. And as 20 per cent of fatalities occur among the 80 per cent of the population beneath the age of 65, the chances of people in that large age bracket being mortally afflicted from this pandemic are approximately one in almost 40,000. Thus the danger of death for 80 per cent of people is not statistically significant, and there is no excuse for continuing any substantial part of the lockdown in respect of them.

American testing, uncontradicted by the experiences of other countries that have tested extensively, is that about half of those who contract the coronavirus have no symptoms at all, so the fear that people who survive a coronavirus attack are certain to have been through a terrible, life-threatening ordeal is unfounded. And thorough research in New York City, where there has been the greatest concentration of occurrences of the illness in North America, well beyond that city’s proportionate share of the U.S. population, reveals that two-thirds of infections have been contracted by people who have been observing the shutdown and staying at home. I supported the shutdown as necessary to ensure that a disease that we had reason to fear was deadlier and more pernicious than it is did not sweep across the whole population. But now, nothing could be more obvious than the fact that it is a positive danger now, medically and economically, to continue the shutdown remotely as tightly as it has been.

The confinement of millions of people doesn’t, beyond a certain point, reduce the chances of infection and this level of economic disruption is an unprecedented international act of self-impoverishment. The human damage of this amount of artificial unemployment cannot be sustained much longer, and neither can the fiscal burden of trying to compensate those who have been disemployed as a result of public policy rather than any fault of their own or the normal forces of the free market, and there is no excuse for it. I am not a gun enthusiast and don’t enjoy shooting of any kind but it was hard not to be impressed by the determination of large groups of Americans crowding into state capitals last week, many of them exercising the Second Amendment right to bear arms, to assert their right to go freely about their communities, do their jobs, earn their pay and take care of their families. When my sons and daughter and I were all much younger, I used to take them to paintball parks in the interior of Florida and was always astounded at how many adult men appeared in battle fatigues and told me what arsenals they had in their homes of real guns and how little surprised they would be if at some point they had to defend their homes against the government, as in the days of the American Revolution.

The gentler tradition of this country has many attractions, and there are aspects of American society that are mad and violent. But the docility of Canadians putting up with this nonsense is dispiriting. Escalated efforts should be made to provide for and insulate the vulnerable, who are almost all sensible and aware of the dangers and can act prudently. The rest of the population should take their chances. They have virtually no chance of a fatal encounter and little likelihood of a nasty illness. Our society must act sensibly to reduce the likelihood of dangerous infections but stop this contemptible cowering like moles and imagining that fear of the illness will ever be a policy that banishes it. This is not a question of monetizing life and exalting commerce. It is the recognition that too many in this country seem reluctant to face: that we cannot justify the penury of a fifth of the population, almost eight million people, and dangerous increases in public debt and the money supply, to reduce marginally the mortal impact of a disease that takes such a small percentage of the population.

We know from Sweden what happens when the population is adequately warned and restaurants and theatres and sporting events are somewhat thinned but essentially everything goes on close to normal: the fatality rate rises to about 2.5 times the rate of Canada and perhaps 20 per cent above the United States, and 90 per cent of Sweden’s deaths from this virus occur in people 70 years old or above. Every death is a sadness and premature and avoidable deaths are tragedies, but putting between a fifth and a third of the population in grave financial danger and at risk of ancillary conditions that can also be deadly, to reduce the mortal incidence of the virus from 320 people in one million over the whole population to 200, is not a justifiable measure.

The whole anti-coronavirus effort has suffered from mission creep: at the outset, it was designed to prevent a devastation that would re-enact the great London plague of the mid-17th century. The Imperial College in London predicted, a bit cavalierly, about 2.2 million dead in the United States, about two-thirds of one per cent of the entire population. The shutdown and simultaneous measures reduced the incidence of the coronavirus, but a virus can remain dormant for a long time and cannot be extirpated without a vaccine. Until a vaccine is developed, the best that can be done is to run as normal an economic life as possible, shelter the vulnerable elderly and infirm, and rely on the prudent majority to act wisely but not obsessively or in a cowardly manner. Having neighbours set the police on neighbours because they suspect they are entertaining a friend for dinner, barricading the public out of parks because too many will want to see the cherry blossoms, frog-marching people off beaches and fining or jailing them, demeans the police and insults everyone. It is shaming and absurd.

Telling 25-year-old couples, married or not, straight or gay, who are intimate, that they have to maintain two-metres between them in public is ludicrous. A sure sign that this has gone far enough occurred this week when my tailor in Savile Row advised that designer masks are available. The rest of the world is going back to work and to comparative normalcy, in stages, but much more quickly than we are. No one wants impetuosity; but we don’t want, and should not accept, priggish fearfulness either.

National Post
cmbletters@gmail.com

[ikarus]

Problem is that the media controls 90% of narrative and you can see their blue print narratives they talk during evening news, everywhere!

First it was all fear, death tolls, lockdowns..now suddenly northern hemisphere is lifting lockdowns ...interesting Italy which got hit "heavy" (at least that MSM said) is lifting their lockdown at the same time another small country where I came from is ...the only difference is they had over 20,000 deaths vs 200...so it absurd and almost insane that they both lifted the lockdown at the same time. Fascinating

On a side note...I remember the bird flue back in my old country ...the previous administration including health ministry jumped on the band wagon and said they needed to get everyone vaccinated or the population is doomed. They ordered a ***load of vaccines and someone made a ton of money ...but people saw their bs and only like 10% got the shot. Needles to say the death toll was marginal ...multiple arrest followed afterward ...but the big shots and politicians got away and quietly retired.

Seems another round is on

[ALPApolicy]

Quebec has 2928 (as of May 11) deaths due to COVID-19 and zero of them are people under 30, 2.2% are older than 30 and less than 60 years of age, and 90.8% are 70 or older, most of whom were in long term care facilities or retirement homes.

We now know who is at risk. Take the measures to isolate them and let the rest of us go back to work.

[ikarus]

Quebec has 2800 deaths due to COVID-19 and zero of them are people under 30, and 90% are 70 or older, most of whom were in long term care facilities or retirement homes.

We now know who is at risk. Take the measures to isolate them and let the rest of us go back to work.

Agreed.

But obviously some one has other interests. To collapse the economy and make the middle class even more obsolete and the super rich, richer!

[mbav8r]

Quebec has 2800 deaths due to COVID-19 and zero of them are people under 30, and 90% are 70 or older, most of whom were in long term care facilities or retirement homes.

We now know who is at risk. Take the measures to isolate them and let the rest of us go back to work.

What about the children presenting with a form of Kawasaki disease, the forty somethings with massive strokes who had zero risk factors, there is so much not known at this point, I don’t want to be a guinea pig, so if you feel you need to, fill your boots but thankfully the health officials are making informed decisions and not getting their information from internet idiots.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/7 ... h/2408285/

“New York may have as many as 85 cases of children presenting with a new pediatric multi-system inflammatory syndrome likely linked to COVID-19 -- and two more children may have died of the condition, Gov. Cuomo said Sunday.“

[ALPApolicy]

Quebec has 2800 deaths due to COVID-19 and zero of them are people under 30, and 90% are 70 or older, most of whom were in long term care facilities or retirement homes.

We now know who is at risk. Take the measures to isolate them and let the rest of us go back to work.

What about the children presenting with a form of Kawasaki disease, the forty somethings with massive strokes who had zero risk factors, there is so much not known at this point, I don’t want to be a guinea pig, so if you feel you need to, fill your boots but thankfully the health officials are making informed decisions and not getting their information from internet idiots.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/7 ... h/2408285/

“New York may have as many as 85 cases of children presenting with a new pediatric multi-system inflammatory syndrome likely linked to COVID-19 -- and two more children may have died of the condition, Gov. Cuomo said Sunday.“

I’m not sure why you feel the need to attack me after one innocuous post. Are you getting enough iron in your diet?

As of May 9, Ontario has had 1634 COVID-19 deaths. Ontario organizes its cases into different buckets than Quebec so the data is not apples to apples, but:

There have been zero (0.0) deaths of people aged 19 or younger. There have been 7 deaths of people 20 or older and less than 40 (no mention of comorbid conditionality), and 95.2% (1557) of the deaths are of people 60 or older (no mention of comorbidity).

This virus doesn’t kill young people. It kills old people and people with certain pre-existing conditions (diabetes and obesity co-related illnesses etc).

We know who is at risk. Let’s take the steps (i.e. spend the money) to protect these people and go back to work. We can use the savings from NOT collapsing the economy to reorganize our long term care facilities.

[RippleRock]

“New York may have as many as 85 cases of children presenting with a new pediatric multi-system inflammatory syndrome likely linked to COVID-19 -- and two more children may have died of the condition, Gov. Cuomo said Sunday.“

Before we panic and assume that Covid-19 is the culprit, let the "likelys" turn into "without a doubt" and the "may have's" turn into "did".

The simple fact that hundreds of thousands of children weren't allowed to go outside for a long period, "may" have exposed them to excessive basement mould (black mould is extremely common and nasty) or other indoor respiratory irritants.

We don't know yet.

[ALPApolicy]

RippleRock, agreed fully. All I see is a number of media reports questioning if there is a link.

I watched for two years as Rachel Maddow of MSNBC and the rest of the MSM questioned a link between Trump and Russia, and we all know how that turned out.

[altiplano]

It's a reach. There is not a link. Not all the kids in New York had Covid, of course some of them did, because hundreds of thousands of people have or had it, but it's not the cause. Why didn't we see this on any other parts of the world? Only New York?

[mbav8r]

Quebec has 2800 deaths due to COVID-19 and zero of them are people under 30, and 90% are 70 or older, most of whom were in long term care facilities or retirement homes.

We now know who is at risk. Take the measures to isolate them and let the rest of us go back to work.

What about the children presenting with a form of Kawasaki disease, the forty somethings with massive strokes who had zero risk factors, there is so much not known at this point, I don’t want to be a guinea pig, so if you feel you need to, fill your boots but thankfully the health officials are making informed decisions and not getting their information from internet idiots.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/7 ... h/2408285/

“New York may have as many as 85 cases of children presenting with a new pediatric multi-system inflammatory syndrome likely linked to COVID-19 -- and two more children may have died of the condition, Gov. Cuomo said Sunday.“

I’m not sure why you feel the need to attack me after one innocuous post. Are you getting enough iron in your diet?

As of May 9, Ontario has had 1634 COVID-19 deaths. Ontario organizes its cases into different buckets than Quebec so the data is not apples to apples, but:

There have been zero (0.0) deaths of people aged 19 or younger. There have been 7 deaths of people 20 or older and less than 40 (no mention of comorbid conditionality), and 95.2% (1557) of the deaths are of people 60 or older (no mention of comorbidity).

This virus doesn’t kill young people. It kills old people and people with certain pre-existing conditions (diabetes and obesity co-related illnesses etc).

We know who is at risk. Let’s take the steps (i.e. spend the money) to protect these people and go back to work. We can use the savings from NOT collapsing the economy to reorganize our long term care facilities.

First, I won’t apologize for grouping you in, these numbers you quote are with the extreme measures that were taken, other parts of the world who acted too late are seeing these other groups being affected. You advocate for protect the vulnerable but the fact is there are more vulnerable groups that will be affected or groups that are not considered vulnerable, if we get back too soon.
The media is not misrepresenting the facts, they may focus on certain facts but they are not lying, fact is there are many children with,
“Critically ill children have been ending up in intensive care units with shock-like symptoms in recent weeks, adding yet another mysterious layer to the coronavirus pandemic.“
How many lives are you willing to sacrifice to get the economy going? How many children, how many people with no risk factors are acceptable? Fact, there is no way of knowing how bad it will get, other than a few countries that didn’t take strong measures, believe me, I’ve been watching them and comparing to our response and outcome. A couple of those have had their deaths accelerate as of late and I suspect the worst is yet to come.
Quebec’s premier is about to experiment with their children, I suspect this will not bode well for his political future but time will tell.

[mbav8r]

It's a reach. There is not a link. Not all the kids in New York had Covid, of course some of them did, because hundreds of thousands of people have or had it, but it's not the cause. Why didn't we see this on any other parts of the world? Only New York?

Read the god damn article!
“A few days earlier, officials in the United Kingdom notified doctors of similar cases there, also describing them as having features similar to Kawasaki disease and toxic shock syndrome. Several of the children had tested positive for COVID-19.“
It’s just coming out, fact is we don’t yet know, how many children will you sacrifice?

[mbav8r]

“New York may have as many as 85 cases of children presenting with a new pediatric multi-system inflammatory syndrome likely linked to COVID-19 -- and two more children may have died of the condition, Gov. Cuomo said Sunday.“

Before we panic and assume that Covid-19 is the culprit, let the "likelys" turn into "without a doubt" and the "may have's" turn into "did".

The simple fact that hundreds of thousands of children weren't allowed to go outside for a long period, "may" have exposed them to excessive basement mould (black mould is extremely common and nasty) or other indoor respiratory irritants.

We don't know yet.

So, “We don’t know yet” but let’s get this party started regardless, is that what you’re saying?