Best guess when recalls could happen

[Ash Ketchum]

I am one of the many Jazz pilots laid off. To be quite honest, depending on how long this layoff lasts, it may be the end of my commercial aviation career. I am in the process of securing a well paying job in the tech industry using my previous experience and university degree. I love to fly, but I have small children and a mortgage and the bills need to be paid. If this is a long term layoff (2-3 years+) I am not sure if I will have enough of an incentive to return.

[Malfunction]

I'm on beer 3 already...

[780Pilot]

This might be a stupid question, but how senior do you have to be at Jazz to avoid a layoff if that's even possible? 10, 15+ years?

[Babar350]

I am one of the many Jazz pilots laid off. To be quite honest, depending on how long this layoff lasts, it may be the end of my commercial aviation career. I am in the process of securing a well paying job in the tech industry using my previous experience and university degree. I love to fly, but I have small children and a mortgage and the bills need to be paid. If this is a long term layoff (2-3 years+) I am not sure if I will have enough of an incentive to return.

Same questioning, but I didn't secure any IT job yet though.

[rudder]

This might be a stupid question, but how senior do you have to be at Jazz to avoid a layoff if that's even possible? 10, 15+ years?

Jazz sent lay-off notices to 675 pilots. That is 50% of the active pilot population. Senior DOH not laid off will be October 2016. Currently no pilots are technically on lay-off. They are on payroll but inactive being paid the CEWS benefit by Jazz. Once CEWS expires, layoffs will kick in. Same arrangement for many surplus pilots in Canada.

[CPT.HarshColdReality]

I'm on beer 3 already...

hahah cheers brother! your lucky you got a job offer in these times!

[truedude]

Like many on here, I have no idea and would take the job. "A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush" sorta thing. But I don't agree with the overall pessimistic outlook many seem to share here. Well it won't return overnight, I do suspect demand will return quicker than most people think. Humans have short memories, it is just hard to see through to the other side when you are in the middle of it.

[Rowdy]

The second provincial and national restrictions ease this summer, it'll 'take off' and it'll happen quickly. Sure there might now be requirements for this and that to get on an airplane (temperature checks etc).

Within hours of the US border opening it'll jump as well.

My predictions (for Jazz anyways) are that the company is going to be caught massively off guard when it goes crazy end of july or start of august. Expect them to be offering up double time(or better) as they scramble to catch up on recurrent training/currency etc. It's way easier to lay off than it is to recall.Will we be back to the hiring /upgrade frenzy? No. But we will be back flying.

Being 'trapped' at home will cause many to simply load up the credit card and lines of credit to go see loved ones and get a vacation the second they are able. From what I've seen and heard, it's really sparked a need to stay in touch and focus on whats important. Usually that means family and friends. that'll do a lot for travel domestically.

[Ash Ketchum]

I think part of how long the recall takes depends on if and when the second wave of the virus arrives coupled with the time it takes to make an effective antibody treatment or vaccine. We could see flying go up in July-September but then get hammered down next fall/winter when the second wave arrives. Of course there is also the issue of how long it will take the economy to bounce back with millions of people losing their jobs and businesses going bankrupt.

[McKinley]

Hard call.. ( I do not work for Jazz) but I work for a regional carrier that served many places Jazz goes. I see lots of things that may bode well for aviation and other factors that do not.

There’s so many different possibilities...

I do know that many of the places that Jazz services depend on regional airlines for sanity, medical trips, cultural trips, family connections into other cities, bereavement travel etc. I do not see this demand evaporating. I cannot see people driving from Terrace to Vancouver for a medical appointment.. there will be a lot of demand for this..

I also think CR is in a bit of a conundrum where If he pulls out of places like YXT, YYD etc there’s the very strong possibility someone else moves in and therefore he loses market share along those routes. Once one pulls out of a place it can be difficult to get those customers back once someone else moves in. ( this may bode well for us)

Jazz provides an excellent, professional, efficient and safe service as does AC.

Personally, I cannot wait to visit family and friends. Yes, there’s risk to flying .. but there’s also a risk pumping my own gas, going to the bank, post office, Costco, the bike shop etc ..you name it. Personally, I’d prefer flying to going to Costco.

The best thing airlines can do is risk mitigation.. the public will need to see the airlines taking serious and concrete steps to reduce transmission and enforcing their rules. ( eg. If someone is hacking, horking and sweating profusely in the boarding lounge they should be removed from the boarding lounge)

On the other hand, I have elderly parents who have said that they’d prefer me to drive to see them vs flying. ( 15+ hr drive ) (Here’s where the risk mitigation comes in) the thing is, they still go to the grocery store.

The media has created such a culture of hysteria surrounding this virus and that culture probably will have a greater impact than the virus itself.

I hope we all go back to work sooner than later.

[goleafsgo]

Hello everyone. What are your best guesses when jazz will start recalling inactive/layed off pilots. The only reason I am asking is because I have been offered summer employment but I don't want to accept it if jazz is going to recall me in July or Aug. I have been with the company 2.5 years and low 900's on the senority list.

Section 6 - .09 of our contract may cover you

[ayseven]

The media loves a story sure, but possible hospital problems as a result of this are very real. Even with beds, they will be short-staffed. This is the issue and what we are trying to avert.
Just think tho how much money people are saving by not going to hockey games etc. A nice trip is in the cards for sure. That said, there is a lot of suffering going on. Food banks are going mental.

[Babar350]

To put into perspective Carnival Cruise saw a 600% surge in booking for august.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/ ... alyst.aspx

[MrAviator19]

Like many on here, I have no idea and would take the job. "A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush" sorta thing. But I don't agree with the overall pessimistic outlook many seem to share here. Well it won't return overnight, I do suspect demand will return quicker than most people think. Humans have short memories, it is just hard to see through to the other side when you are in the middle of it.

Pessimists? On AvCanada?! NOOOO!

MrA

[mbav8r]

Like many on here, I have no idea and would take the job. "A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush" sorta thing. But I don't agree with the overall pessimistic outlook many seem to share here. Well it won't return overnight, I do suspect demand will return quicker than most people think. Humans have short memories, it is just hard to see through to the other side when you are in the middle of it.

Pessimists? On AvCanada?! NOOOO!

MrA

Don’t mistake pessimism for realism, I had a conversation on here last year when there was talk about big raises and using the shortage to make gains, I said we are one SARS event away from not having a shortage, which was completely dismissed as though the shortage of experienced pilots would last forever. Well here we are, some companies have already closed their doors forever, some are restructuring in bankruptcy, some are shrinking before they end up bankrupt, how long do you think this surplus will last.
I have changed my view, initially I was at three years now I more on the realistic side of five years before any meaningful hiring will occur.
Disclaimer, I have absolutely no idea, just my gut and experience of three downturns, by all means though if it helps you, keep up the optimism

[truedude]

Pessimism and realism are generally perspectives. The original question was when he could expect to be back at work. That will not be 3 years, or 5 years. He will be back before that. Likely inside a year, possibly by the end of this year. As far as major hiring, again, that is perspective. But right now I will be happy to see everyone back at work, and again, I don't think that will take 3 years. Maybe I am wrong. But people seem ready to bust, and flights are being added near daily to schedules, both here at home, and in the states. The EU is talking about opening boarders to countries with similar COVID numbers and precautions in place.

People want to move. For the first time in modern history, the majority of the world has had restrictions placed on their ability to move freely around the world (or at least the parts they want to go). I think that has left a pretty bitter taste for a lot of people, and perhaps they are reexamining priorities in their life.

It won't be the same as it was. But again, people have short memories. The news media will lose interest, and when this isn't in people's faces 24/7, people will wonder out.

[2112]

It's all conjecture at this point. The only major problem I see in the short term is that 50% of Canadian consumers were living within $200 dollars of default before covid. A large number of these people now find themselves either laid off or on reduced hours/wages. Many will use lines of credit and other high interest debt to keep the lights on. The longer this lockdown lasts the less money these households will have to spend on that trip when deciding between vacation and mortgage payments. I hope i'm wrong but most people I talk to are already stuggling to stay afloat never mind take a trip.

[DHC-1 Jockey]

To put into perspective Carnival Cruise saw a 600% surge in booking for august.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/ ... alyst.aspx

That 600% surge is compared to the 3 days before Carnival announced they were resuming some cruises. It's easy to increase bookings 600% when no-one was booking trips a few days prior.

[skypirate88]

To put into perspective Carnival Cruise saw a 600% surge in booking for august.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/ ... alyst.aspx

That 600% surge is compared to the 3 days before Carnival announced they were resuming some cruises. It's easy to increase bookings 600% when no-one was booking trips a few days prior.

It also said bookings were up 200% from the same time last year.

[tbayav8er]

I think it's going to depend largely on when/if a vaccine is developed and mass distributed. I think if there were a vaccine, that would drastically increase the public's confidence in going back on airplanes, going back to normal etc. I would say, once a vaccine is developed, recalls would probably start happening around that time. If there's never a vaccine developed, it might be a while.