Transat shareholders are taking a haircut here... AC shareholders too if they fill the shares for the share swap options. The big AT shareholders like Letko didn't like $14 before and it will be interesting to see how they vote this... Letko has significant AC pairings too though and fear is clearly in the drivers seat, I'll be interested to hear what the Transat CEO recommendation states. Plenty of fear that AT is going to flop if the deal doesn't go ahead no doubt. he just wants to walk at this point. Probably will get an AC BOD appointment for himself out of it.
Rovinescu is a shark.
JME is in favour, he told me himself in an email.
Of course he is, and I read his statement in the press release, I'm just wondering what else he will tell the shareholders that were holding out for $18?
Sharklasers wrote: ↑Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:51 am
Letko is all but completely divested from TRZ and has been for months. Friday at the bell they owned 203000 shares of TRZ or about .54% of the total outstanding shares. https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/report/st ... 0P00005TH4
Noted. Who are the largest share holders presently?
I have no idea why Morningstar doesn't show Letkos shares but they are still the largest shareholder. They spoke about it on the radio today. Here is an article about it as well.
From Calin today during town hall on Air Transat acquisition.... "Our agreement with Transat protects our employees by requiring them to shrink their workforce in the same way we have reduced ours..."
dhc2pilot wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 12:40 pm
From Calin today during town hall on Air Transat acquisition.... "Our agreement with Transat protects our employees by requiring them to shrink their workforce in the same way we have reduced ours..."
I went through the whole AC / Canadian merger, the famous Keller list. The reality is, air transat pilots will have to give up a certain amount of seniority. The questin is... how much? These two mergers have quite a bit in comon. I don't think applying a straight penalty will be the way to go, a ratio and groups will be applied.
Hell, here is my crack at it. With about 4250 AC pilots after ERIP and 650 AT pilots
Group 1 - Senior AC pilots / First 600 - Untouched
Group 2 - Senior Transat Pilots with the core of AC pilots (Ts Sen 1-200 Ac Sen 601 to approx 2200) List zipped at 11 AC to 1 TS Ratio
Group 3 - Pre Pml and PML 1 AC Pilots (2200 - 3100) - Transat Core (200-430) - Zipped in at approx 4 AC pilot to 1 TS pilot ratio
Group 4 - PML 2 and 2.5 AC Pilots (3100 to approx 4250) - Transat Hiring Boom Pilots (430 to approx 650). --- Transat pilots are tapped bottom of the list in their order of seniority.
Fire away, but I tried doing this with no emotions just what I think would be fair. Like it or not if you look at the Keller list, this is about what is going to end up happening.
FL-280 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:35 pm
I went through the whole AC / Canadian merger, the famous Keller list. The reality is, air transat pilots will have to give up a certain amount of seniority. The questin is... how much? These two mergers have quite a bit in comon. I don't think applying a straight penalty will be the way to go, a ratio and groups will be applied.
Hell, here is my crack at it. With about 4250 AC pilots after ERIP and 650 AT pilots
Group 1 - Senior AC pilots / First 600 - Untouched
Group 2 - Senior Transat Pilots with the core of AC pilots (Ts Sen 1-200 Ac Sen 601 to approx 2200) List zipped at 11 AC to 1 TS Ratio
Group 3 - Pre Pml and PML 1 AC Pilots (2200 - 3100) - Transat Core (200-430) - Zipped in at approx 4 AC pilot to 1 TS pilot ratio
Group 4 - PML 2 and 2.5 AC Pilots (3100 to approx 4250) - Transat Hiring Boom Pilots (430 to approx 650). --- Transat pilots are tapped bottom of the list in their order of seniority.
Fire away, but I tried doing this with no emotions just what I think would be fair. Like it or not if you look at the Keller list, this is about what is going to end up happening.
FL-280 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:35 pm
I went through the whole AC / Canadian merger, the famous Keller list. The reality is, air transat pilots will have to give up a certain amount of seniority. The questin is... how much? These two mergers have quite a bit in comon. I don't think applying a straight penalty will be the way to go, a ratio and groups will be applied.
Hell, here is my crack at it. With about 4250 AC pilots after ERIP and 650 AT pilots
Group 1 - Senior AC pilots / First 600 - Untouched
Group 2 - Senior Transat Pilots with the core of AC pilots (Ts Sen 1-200 Ac Sen 601 to approx 2200) List zipped at 11 AC to 1 TS Ratio
Group 3 - Pre Pml and PML 1 AC Pilots (2200 - 3100) - Transat Core (200-430) - Zipped in at approx 4 AC pilot to 1 TS pilot ratio
Group 4 - PML 2 and 2.5 AC Pilots (3100 to approx 4250) - Transat Hiring Boom Pilots (430 to approx 650). --- Transat pilots are tapped bottom of the list in their order of seniority.
Fire away, but I tried doing this with no emotions just what I think would be fair. Like it or not if you look at the Keller list, this is about what is going to end up happening.
The Keller list did not put the bottom 30% of canadian pilots BOTL. I realize you must be really junior but better to temper your expetations now.
Only about 10%-12% in the Keller list, the 1997 hires and later.... 160 out of approx 1150
If you dont think time spent in the regional market, be it Jazz, sky or Georgian won't have a certain weight in the artibrator's decision, you are out to lunch. Time in the regional effects almost 2 000 pilots at AC.
If I was a 2016 hire at TS, I would be happy to get tapped Bottom of the list at AC. The guaranteed career at AC is worth the 4 year hit. The other alternative was TS goes under or significantly reduces its size for a very long time. Either way, a 2016 or later hire was probably going to apply at AC anyway. In fact, I wonder how many resume's we had on file before the deal was initially announced.
Everyone will be taking a hit here, and I mean everyone. If you can't give up a few years of seniority and be happy with that you don't realise how much an AC pilot is losing in this acquisition. It's pretty clear, you are bringing less work and tails than you are bringing pilots.
We shouldn't talk about a Transat list percentage, the pilot group is so small that it's really irrelevant. 30% is only 225 pilots, meh! Transat pilot group is 1/3 rd the size of the total AC express group. Think of that for a second.
FL-280 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:54 pm
Only about 10%-12% in the Keller list, the 1997 hires and later.... 160 out of approx 1150
If you dont think time spent in the regional market, be it Jazz, sky or Georgian won't have a certain weight in the artibrator's decision, you are out to lunch. Time in the regional effects almost 2 000 pilots at AC.
If I was a 2016 hire at TS, I would be happy to get tapped Bottom of the list at AC. The guaranteed career at AC is worth the 4 year hit. The other alternative was TS goes under or significantly reduces its size for a very long time. Either way, a 2016 or later hire was probably going to apply at AC anyway. In fact, I wonder how many resume's we had on file before the deal was initially announced.
Everyone will be taking a hit here, and I mean everyone. If you can't give up a few years of seniority and be happy with that you don't realise how much an AC pilot is losing in this acquisition. It's pretty clear, you are bringing less work and tails than you are bringing pilots.
We shouldn't talk about a Transat list percentage, the pilot group is so small that it's really irrelevant. 30% is only 225 pilots, meh! Transat pilot group is 1/3 rd the size of the total AC express group. Think of that for a second.
Lol you don't have to convince me. I'm just pointing out that your claim that you're going off the Keller list is a bit off, in a a way that reveals quite blatantly where you sit on the list.
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Last edited by milhouse on Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Well, I believe that list will have to adapted to our current realities. What the hell do I know, im just pilot! I was giving it a shot, dont blame me for it. Its better than all the bitching that goes on here
FL-280 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:35 pm
I went through the whole AC / Canadian merger, the famous Keller list. The reality is, air transat pilots will have to give up a certain amount of seniority. The questin is... how much? These two mergers have quite a bit in comon. I don't think applying a straight penalty will be the way to go, a ratio and groups will be applied.
Hell, here is my crack at it. With about 4250 AC pilots after ERIP and 650 AT pilots
Group 1 - Senior AC pilots / First 600 - Untouched
Group 2 - Senior Transat Pilots with the core of AC pilots (Ts Sen 1-200 Ac Sen 601 to approx 2200) List zipped at 11 AC to 1 TS Ratio
Group 3 - Pre Pml and PML 1 AC Pilots (2200 - 3100) - Transat Core (200-430) - Zipped in at approx 4 AC pilot to 1 TS pilot ratio
Group 4 - PML 2 and 2.5 AC Pilots (3100 to approx 4250) - Transat Hiring Boom Pilots (430 to approx 650). --- Transat pilots are tapped bottom of the list in their order of seniority.
Fire away, but I tried doing this with no emotions just what I think would be fair. Like it or not if you look at the Keller list, this is about what is going to end up happening.
I don’t think you read the report right. The remaining pilots hired before October 17th 2000 (Category 6) was integrated by straight ratio.
FL-280 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 2:35 pm
I went through the whole AC / Canadian merger, the famous Keller list. The reality is, air transat pilots will have to give up a certain amount of seniority. The questin is... how much? These two mergers have quite a bit in comon. I don't think applying a straight penalty will be the way to go, a ratio and groups will be applied.
Hell, here is my crack at it. With about 4250 AC pilots after ERIP and 650 AT pilots
Group 1 - Senior AC pilots / First 600 - Untouched
Group 2 - Senior Transat Pilots with the core of AC pilots (Ts Sen 1-200 Ac Sen 601 to approx 2200) List zipped at 11 AC to 1 TS Ratio
Group 3 - Pre Pml and PML 1 AC Pilots (2200 - 3100) - Transat Core (200-430) - Zipped in at approx 4 AC pilot to 1 TS pilot ratio
Group 4 - PML 2 and 2.5 AC Pilots (3100 to approx 4250) - Transat Hiring Boom Pilots (430 to approx 650). --- Transat pilots are tapped bottom of the list in their order of seniority.
Fire away, but I tried doing this with no emotions just what I think would be fair. Like it or not if you look at the Keller list, this is about what is going to end up happening.
I don’t think you read the report right. The remaining pilots hired before October 17th 2000 (Category 6) was integrated by straight ratio.
The Keller arbitration was 8:1 at the bottom. 8 AC pilots for every 1 CDN. AC pilots made up almost 90% of the bottom 25% of the combined list when done.
No one was tacked on the bottom. That isn’t accepted as integration.
The only thing I can guarantee is that the last person on each list will sit next to each other on the combined list and arbitrators don’t seem to care much about what happens at the bottom. Re read that last part of the sentence.
Arbitrators don’t care who you work for. They don’t care about future expectations. Those expectations vaporized when AC purchase Transat. They don’t care about the financial situation of one company over another. They have one job and that’s to glue two groups together as THEY see fit.
Sounds harsh, but it’s reality.
In the case of the AC/CDN merger the arbitrator dragged so many CDN pilots up the list while setting ratios, trying to create their version of equity between the two groups in the top 2/3 of the list, that there was very few CDN pilots left to merge with the bottom 1/3 of the AC pilot group. 120 CDN pilots rings a bell. That is why the ratio was 8:1. There was no rational for the 8:1 ratio other than that was simply what was left over. 8:1 may seem extreme for a pilot group that was 2:1 on a straight ratio but no one cared. It was at the bottom.
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Last edited by Fanblade on Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:16 pm, edited 5 times in total.
If you dont think time spent in the regional market, be it Jazz, sky or Georgian won't have a certain weight in the artibrator's decision, you are out to lunch. Time in the regional effects almost 2 000 pilots at AC.
Great so all the years I spent at Jazz (like MANY Transat pilots) will be a benefit
Fanblade wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:38 pm
The Keller arbitration was 8:1 at the bottom. 8 AC pilots for every 1 CDN. AC pilots made up almost 90% of the bottom 25% of the combined list.
No one was tacked on the bottom. That isn’t accepted as integration.
The only thing I can guarantee is that the last person on each list will sit next to each other on the combined list and arbitrators don’t seem to care much about what happens at the bottom. Re read that last part of the sentence.
Arbitrators don’t care who you work for. They don’t care about future expectations. They don’t care about the financial situation of one company over another. They have one job and that’s to glue two groups together as THEY see fit.
In the case of the AC/CDN merger the arbitrator dragged so many CDN pilots up the list while setting ratios, trying to create their version of equity between the two groups in the top 2/3 of the list, that there was very few CDN pilots left to merge with the bottom 1/3 of the AC pilot group. 120 CDN pilots rings a bell. That is why the ratio was 8:1. There was no rational for the 8:1 ratio other than that was simply what was left over. 8:1 may seem extreme for a pilot group that was 2:1 on a straight ratio but no one cared. It was at the bottom.
Xxxxx wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:13 pm
If you dont think time spent in the regional market, be it Jazz, sky or Georgian won't have a certain weight in the artibrator's decision, you are out to lunch. Time in the regional effects almost 2 000 pilots at AC.
Won’t matter one single bit. You quit. You were a new hire on a specific date at AC. No different than a Transat pilot that transferred to AC. They quit Transat.
Time at the regionals played no roll in the AC/CDN merger. If anything it worked against us. The CDN pilots argued that the bottom 1/3 of the AC list was not as deserving because they were regional pilots with limited “sweat equity” in at mainline.
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Last edited by Fanblade on Thu Oct 15, 2020 9:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
milhouse wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:13 pm
If you dont think time spent in the regional market, be it Jazz, sky or Georgian won't have a certain weight in the artibrator's decision, you are out to lunch. Time in the regional effects almost 2 000 pilots at AC.
Won’t matter one single bit. You quit. You were a new hire on a specific date at AC. No different than a Transat pilot that transferred to AC. They quit Transat.
Time at the regionals played no roll in the AC/CDN merger. If anything it worked against us. The CDN pilots argued that the bottom 1/3 of the AC list was not as deserving because they were regional pilots with limited “sweat equity” in at mainline.
It will work against everyone who stayed at a regional.
AT hires much younger pilots typically than AC. So buddy with the same date of hire as an AC guy will likely be younger.
Arbitrators have factored in career expectations, and things like average age, upcoming retirements and associated movement, of a pilot group in integrations.
I wouldn't rule it out.
That said I wouldn't rule out a large downsizing of both groups before this comes to pass also. It will be interesting to see how an arbitrator factors that in.
Fact is that 1 airline will need fewer pilots than 2 airlines.
altiplano wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:52 am
Arbitrators have factored in career expectations, and things like average age, upcoming retirements and associated movement, of a pilot group in integrations.
I wouldn't rule it out.
That said I wouldn't rule out a large downsizing of both groups before this comes to pass also. It will be interesting to see how an arbitrator factors that in.
Fact is that 1 airline will need fewer pilots than 2 airlines.
2 shrinking airlines at that.
4250 + 650 = 4850
Any guesses as to total required pilots for January 2021 (date of corporate closing)? June 2021? June 2022?
What happens if AC decides to announce permanent reductions in the B777 fleet? What happens when TS announces permanent fleet reductions?
Saying that an arbitrator (panel?) will need a crystal ball is an understatement.
altiplano wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:52 am
Arbitrators have factored in career expectations, and things like average age, upcoming retirements and associated movement, of a pilot group in integrations.
I wouldn't rule it out.
That said I wouldn't rule out a large downsizing of both groups before this comes to pass also. It will be interesting to see how an arbitrator factors that in.
Fact is that 1 airline will need fewer pilots than 2 airlines.
2 shrinking airlines at that.
4250 + 650 = 4̶8̶5̶0̶ 4900
Any guesses as to total required pilots for January 2021 (date of corporate closing)? June 2021? June 2022?
What happens if AC decides to announce permanent reductions in the B777 fleet? What happens when TS announces permanent fleet reductions?
Saying that an arbitrator (panel?) will need a crystal ball is an understatement.
And recall that the last AC bid that was cancelled as this p̶a̶n̶d̶e̶m̶i̶c̶ travesty of government policy spooled up was almost 5000...
I think we'll end up with about 3600 combined by end of next year. That might be generous.
Rousseau said the attractive thing with the TS Neo was that they won't have to pay to replace some of their older Airbuses... how can that factor as growth? At TS 310s and 737s will be gone. Older 330s gone. At AC 767s are gone. EMJs are gone. Older buses gone. LRs will probably go when it's convenient. Maybe the ERs too depending how much longer this clown world goes on...
milhouse wrote: ↑Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:13 pm
If you dont think time spent in the regional market, be it Jazz, sky or Georgian won't have a certain weight in the artibrator's decision, you are out to lunch. Time in the regional effects almost 2 000 pilots at AC.
Won’t matter one single bit. You quit. You were a new hire on a specific date at AC. No different than a Transat pilot that transferred to AC. They quit Transat.
Time at the regionals played no roll in the AC/CDN merger. If anything it worked against us. The CDN pilots argued that the bottom 1/3 of the AC list was not as deserving because they were regional pilots with limited “sweat equity” in at mainline.
That wasn't my post so please don't attribute it to me.
It would be helpful if following the DCC in January 2021, there will be a fleet plan that describes 2021 (anomaly), 2022 (recovery), and 2023 (closer to end state).
Good luck to all. Hopefully the consolidation process will not happen under the umbrella of CCAA.
Career Expectations, number of widebody positions, base, age, salary etc.... all these are taken into account.
Whoever says otherwise didn't read up on, Virgin v. Alaska, United V. Continental or especially Northwest v. Delta!!
altiplano wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 5:17 am
Rousseau said the attractive thing with the TS Neo was that they won't have to pay to replace some of their older Airbuses... how can that factor as growth? At TS 310s and 737s will be gone. Older 330s gone. At AC 767s are gone. EMJs are gone. Older buses gone. LRs will probably go when it's convenient. Maybe the ERs too depending how much longer this clown world goes on...
It seems that AC committing to the MAX is a mistake, particularly given COVID reduced demand and the TS merger. Many carriers are deferring MAX deliveries without penalty. AC would be better served to exit that platform and commit to a majority Airbus NB fleet.
Alaska is indicating that it wants to dramatically increase the MAX fleet. And it wants to accelerate the elimination of the remaining ex-VX 320’s and NEO’s.
Seems like a logical opportunity for AC and AS to do a deal.
I don't think they are looking to get out of the Max.
In fact I understand they like it.
EMJ fuel burns with 80% more passengers and better range, and a lower CASM than the 320neo.
I don't think they'll order more, but 50 aircraft certainly allows for economy of scale to be present. And it has its place. If they end up with a mixed NB fleet of 321/Max8/220 they really would have the best in each size.
I see continuing to run them on southern and transcon routes, Hawaii, they might even be deployed to open up some formerly WB Western Europe routes.
altiplano wrote: ↑Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:01 am
I don't think they are looking to get out of the Max.
In fact I understand they like it.
EMJ fuel burns with 80% more passengers and better range, and a lower CASM than the 320neo.
I don't think they'll order more, but 50 aircraft certainly allows for economy of scale to be present. And it has its place. If they end up with a mixed NB fleet of 321/Max8/220 they really would have the best in each size.
I see continuing to run them on southern and transcon routes, Hawaii, they might even be deployed to open up some formerly WB Western Europe routes.
That said, I'm sure the plan changes daily...
Well, an end state NB fleet of approx 150 with 3 fleet types, three type endorsements, and three sets of spares. Not necessarily ideal.
An A321NEO is a far superior platform than a MAX9. However, AC converted all orders to MAX8 so likely that particular comparison was irrelevant. Is a MAX8 superior to a 320NEO? If you factor in efficiency related to commonality, perhaps not. The A220 most certainly represents a superior platform to the A319.
I also understand the continued A220 commitment due to the fact that they were purchased for less per unit than a new CRJ900. Perhaps AC scored a 50% discount on the MAX order. I doubt that we will ever know.
One can only envy operators that will not have to go through the PR exercise associated with the return to service of the MAX.
