AC and TRZ Agree to Terminate Arrangement

Discuss topics related to Air Transat.

Moderators: North Shore, sky's the limit, sepia, Sulako, lilfssister, I WAS Birddog

Post Reply
FL-510
Rank 2
Rank 2
Posts: 57
Joined: Thu Feb 07, 2013 9:18 am

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by FL-510 »

Pathetic.... You guys make me happy I stuck to corporate
---------- ADS -----------
 
altiplano
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 5683
Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2005 2:24 pm

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by altiplano »

GATRKGA wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:01 am Altiplano, finally a statement out of you that’s logical and sound. More of this please. It has been a while.

I agree, merge this shit sooner than later and get it over with so we can get the footage of FL280 and Jetpilot diverting over a disagreement, lol. I have control, no I have control, no I have control, no I have control. :x :smt040
That's all I've been saying this whole time... it's been pretty consistent. I'm not sure what you think I've been writing on this topic.

I'll buy beers and steaks if jetpilot and FL280 want to have a rumble... we can make it a team building event, maybe even make it interesting winner takes an extra seniority bump for their side..
---------- ADS -----------
 
altiplano
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 5683
Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2005 2:24 pm

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by altiplano »

Fanblade wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:46 am
FL320 wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:28 am I know it will please some of you here but my thoughts are for our colleagues (pilots) that are about to lose their job -again!- before Christmas; thanks to Air Canada (my own conclusion). Our domestic flights were more than 75% full...how can AT justify the removal of the domestic flying if it’s not an AC’s request? (No need to thank us for the extra job for your group, merry Christmas)
It doesn’t please me that there might be more furloughs.

But Rudder is correct. Corporate is making pragmatic decisions. Competing with yourself makes no sense. When your losing 550M a month combined? They have no choice.

Still it sucks. My condolences. The same as to the AC furloughs.
Has there been an announcement on this?
---------- ADS -----------
 
FL-280
Rank 5
Rank 5
Posts: 305
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:45 pm

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by FL-280 »

altiplano wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:59 am

I'll buy beers and steaks if jetpilot and FL280 want to have a rumble... we can make it a team building event, maybe even make it interesting winner takes an extra seniority bump for their side..
Very interesting for the seniority bump!:p haha

But, I am sorry, I can't... Jet is so old I would go to jail for defending myself against a senior citizen or something:P Even though he was hired in 2007, he is old enough to have a senior card.

Plus, violence won't get us through this... when this will be over, we will all have to move on. Myself included, no matter the outcome.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Fanblade
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1772
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2011 8:50 pm

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by Fanblade »

altiplano wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:01 am
Fanblade wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:46 am
FL320 wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:28 am I know it will please some of you here but my thoughts are for our colleagues (pilots) that are about to lose their job -again!- before Christmas; thanks to Air Canada (my own conclusion). Our domestic flights were more than 75% full...how can AT justify the removal of the domestic flying if it’s not an AC’s request? (No need to thank us for the extra job for your group, merry Christmas)
It doesn’t please me that there might be more furloughs.

But Rudder is correct. Corporate is making pragmatic decisions. Competing with yourself makes no sense. When your losing 550M a month combined? They have no choice.

Still it sucks. My condolences. The same as to the AC furloughs.
Has there been an announcement on this?
Not that I am aware of. I assume it is internal at the moment. Transat FA’s were in the news yesturday seeking government support to stop more furloughs.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/n ... 36991.html

https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/t ... 62.article

”With the Canadian borders remaining closed more hermetically than most countries and a quarantine imposed to those coming back to Canada, while no sectoral help has been put in place for airlines, the prospects are unfortunately not improving in the near future, so we have to furlough some of the employees that we had called back for our restart in July,” the airline says.

Remember November is shoulder season. Transat is blaming Canada’s quarantine rules and no sector support. They aren’t blaming AC, but that doesn’t mean AC wasn’t part of the decision. Sucks either way.

It may be part of the overall push by the aviation sector to get sector support. Notice Westjet and the Atlantic cancellations. Now Transat. Right after JT opened the door to possible support for regional air service in the Throne speech.

We will see if either of these reductions actually happen. Me thinks JT’s feet might be getting a little closer to the fire. He loves those socks you know.
---------- ADS -----------
 
rudder
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 4127
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:10 pm

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by rudder »

Fanblade wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:46 am
FL320 wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:28 am I know it will please some of you here but my thoughts are for our colleagues (pilots) that are about to lose their job -again!- before Christmas; thanks to Air Canada (my own conclusion). Our domestic flights were more than 75% full...how can AT justify the removal of the domestic flying if it’s not an AC’s request? (No need to thank us for the extra job for your group, merry Christmas)
It doesn’t please me that there might be more furloughs.

But Rudder is correct. Corporate is making pragmatic decisions. Competing with yourself makes no sense. When your losing 550M a month combined? They have no choice.

Still it sucks. My condolences. The same as to the AC furloughs.
Notwithstanding the TRZ transaction, AC is in survival mode. In point of fact, the modified TRZ acquisition agreement may form part of that survival strategy.

Is AC going to disappear? No. But a second trip to CCAA will invariably wipe out the current AC shareholders. The AC BOD represents the shareholders. Not the employees. Not the passengers. Not the industry. And the AC senior Executive team is accountable to the AC BOD.

For those that have paid attention to history, CR never loses. He on occasion has been unsuccessful in the instant, but he waits. And he remembers. And when he has leverage ..... he acts.

I have no doubt that CR initiated the TRZ discussion for valid strategic reasons. He reached a deal. And then he was forced to increase the price to maintain the deal. Fair enough. Booming economy. Unlimited opportunity to expand capacity. Then COVID. Then the opportunity to exit the deal. Or to improve the terms.

Checkmate. Exit stage right. All future decisions based on the objective of avoiding CCAA.

The upside to this deal if consummated is everybody will still be able to say “I was hired in 1986” or whatever the applicable date. That sounds better than “I used to work at ........”
---------- ADS -----------
 
User avatar
Co-Joe Exotic
Rank 0
Rank 0
Posts: 13
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:42 am

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by Co-Joe Exotic »

Keep in mind we had CEWS for something like 2 months. After that it’s been CERB, and now EI for us 600.

I just submitted my first of what will become many bi-weekly EI reports. I work 3 1/2 jobs to try and keep up. Everything I make is subtracted 50 cents on the dollar from my EI benefit.

CEWS would have been a huge life line for us. Working while collecting CEWS would have played a big difference in terms of take home pay. Never mind the fact we aren’t accruing YOS, Vacation, pension*, benefits etc.

I’m lucky to be in a position where my family situation allows me to work though. Other aren’t.

I guess what I’m saying is, as if being furloughed isn’t difficult enough to swallow, being furloughed while there’s a program being utilized by our peers to prevent furlough, makes it sting that much more.

As for the potential List integration.... Someone way smarter than me will figure it out. I’m just along for ride.

* We’ve been offered pension buy backs. So that’s a small win.
---------- ADS -----------
 
tsgas
Rank 7
Rank 7
Posts: 598
Joined: Sun Feb 29, 2004 12:53 pm

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by tsgas »

jetpilot wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:11 am My Dream as a 16+ yrs plus at AT is to fly with FL280 we all know is real name and it was send to both union one day i make a promiss to you me and you we will have a real men talk !

And yes you are a peace of shit!

ps: anytime anywhere .....

jet
Maybe it would create an event similar to the Jan 1,2018 incident on India Jet Airways , where the SO gives the Cpt , a smack in the face. Keep in mind , both pilots lost their jobs , because of this display of raw :( emotions.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Dry Guy
Rank 6
Rank 6
Posts: 464
Joined: Mon Apr 17, 2017 2:44 pm

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by Dry Guy »

This is getting ugly.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Latitude
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 105
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:50 am

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by Latitude »

Wow...

I hope FL280 is the guy I think of... junior AC guy on A320 hired in 2019, ex DH8 captain at Jazz... there's only one that I know of that is this delusional, provocative and immature. No one is going BOTL :wink:

--------------------

This forum is worse than reading comments on media page on Facebook ... yet we're all pilots and in this together :rolleyes:
---------- ADS -----------
 
Latitude
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 105
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:50 am

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by Latitude »

babaganoush wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:55 pm
columbia wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:31 pm

Oh well, you’ll be disappointed I guess.
Air Transat new hires typically much younger than AC. Pretty easy to get hired at Air Transat at 24 years old with no 705 CA time and in many cases no 705 time. Try that at AC... it happens from time to time but is an anomaly at Air Transat it's a trend..... there absolutely should be considerations with how much longer it takes to get to Air Canada vs Air Transat as a pilot.
Uh ? What does that even mean ? ''pretty easy to get hired at Transat, 24 years old with no 705 time'' ??? How many of them are they ? 5 pilots ? Most hired were flying DH8 or jets for years before TS, and a LOT of them are 30years old+

In the end, doesnt matter as both AC and TS pilots are doing the exact same job. How long it took you to get hired is irrelevant.
---------- ADS -----------
 
User avatar
jetpilot
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 199
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:02 am

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by jetpilot »

FL-280 wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:24 am
altiplano wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:59 am

I'll buy beers and steaks if jetpilot and FL280 want to have a rumble... we can make it a team building event, maybe even make it interesting winner takes an extra seniority bump for their side..
Very interesting for the seniority bump!:p haha

But, I am sorry, I can't... Jet is so old I would go to jail for defending myself against a senior citizen or something:P Even though he was hired in 2007, he is old enough to have a senior card.

Plus, violence won't get us through this... when this will be over, we will all have to move on. Myself included, no matter the outcome.
You so funny i was hired at 30 yrs old you keep insulting me? Be a man.....
---------- ADS -----------
 
JoeyBarton
Rank 4
Rank 4
Posts: 224
Joined: Wed Mar 26, 2014 6:02 am

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by JoeyBarton »

Latitude wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:31 pm
babaganoush wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:55 pm
columbia wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:31 pm

Oh well, you’ll be disappointed I guess.
Air Transat new hires typically much younger than AC. Pretty easy to get hired at Air Transat at 24 years old with no 705 CA time and in many cases no 705 time. Try that at AC... it happens from time to time but is an anomaly at Air Transat it's a trend..... there absolutely should be considerations with how much longer it takes to get to Air Canada vs Air Transat as a pilot.
Uh ? What does that even mean ? ''pretty easy to get hired at Transat, 24 years old with no 705 time'' ??? How many of them are they ? 5 pilots ? Most hired were flying DH8 or jets for years before TS, and a LOT of them are 30years old+

In the end, doesnt matter as both AC and TS pilots are doing the exact same job. How long it took you to get hired is irrelevant.
Funny how only the Transat guys think they are not hired with less experience and make as much money over their entire career than at AC. It is not irrelevant when the 4500 ac pilots will keep on mentionning that.
Here's another one: ask anybody at Westjet or Sunwing who they feel which side won the lottery. 100% will say Transat. Facts. Also nobody leaves ac for ts. So Clearly one side is gaining a little more than the other in this one.
Sums up what everybody in the entire industry thinks of this deal and that's fine. But at least acknowledge it.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Latitude
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 105
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2020 8:50 am

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by Latitude »

JoeyBarton wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:34 pm
Latitude wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:31 pm
babaganoush wrote: Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:55 pm

Air Transat new hires typically much younger than AC. Pretty easy to get hired at Air Transat at 24 years old with no 705 CA time and in many cases no 705 time. Try that at AC... it happens from time to time but is an anomaly at Air Transat it's a trend..... there absolutely should be considerations with how much longer it takes to get to Air Canada vs Air Transat as a pilot.
Uh ? What does that even mean ? ''pretty easy to get hired at Transat, 24 years old with no 705 time'' ??? How many of them are they ? 5 pilots ? Most hired were flying DH8 or jets for years before TS, and a LOT of them are 30years old+

In the end, doesnt matter as both AC and TS pilots are doing the exact same job. How long it took you to get hired is irrelevant.
Funny how only the Transat guys think they are not hired with less experience and make as much money over their entire career than at AC. It is not irrelevant when the 4500 ac pilots will keep on mentionning that.
Here's another one: ask anybody at Westjet or Sunwing who they feel which side won the lottery. 100% will say Transat. Facts. Also nobody leaves ac for ts. So Clearly one side is gaining a little more than the other in this one.
Sums up what everybody in the entire industry thinks of this deal and that's fine. But at least acknowledge it.
Dont put words in my mouth.

I never said we make as much money over our entire career. But you know what ? I got hired straight on an A330, flying 50hrs a month and had amazing 3-4 days layovers in Greece, Spain, etc. I couldnt care less if i made 30K more a year at top pay scale, flying 80hrs a month at AC.

I commented on babaganoush post, which is wrong. ''Pretty easy to get hired at Transat at 24 years old with no 705 time '' Please. Dont be silly. Most hired are from Inuit, Creebec, Jazz, Sky Reg, Encore and Porter.

Now, YES I think the deal is good news for us because of COVID, before that ? Depends what you were looking for. I know for sure tons of TS guys were not looking to jump ship to AC and I am one of them. Some others made the move and it's fine as well.

Either way, I think it would be a great thing if you would stop looking at others like you're better than them, because you're not. That's the kind of attitude that I see a lot from your side that I hate and ''ask anybody at Westjet or Sunwing'' (to use your words) and they'll probably say the same ;)
---------- ADS -----------
 
altiplano
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 5683
Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2005 2:24 pm

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by altiplano »

I don't see an attitude that thinks they're better, I see an attitude that doesn't acknowledge a reasonably good deal for them at the cost of the other guys.

It's not our deal, but it only has a negative affect on one group... just is what it is... I don't have to like it though.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Jean-Luc Monette
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 106
Joined: Thu May 17, 2012 9:47 am
Location: The Laurentians, QC

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by Jean-Luc Monette »

It’s funny how a handful of individuals, on either side of this proposed transaction although unverifiable because of their posting under anonymous handles, seem to think they represent the majority of their respective colleagues’ opinions...
---------- ADS -----------
 
FL-280
Rank 5
Rank 5
Posts: 305
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:45 pm

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by FL-280 »

jetpilot wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:18 pm
You so funny i was hired at 30 yrs old you keep insulting me? Be a man.....
Take a chill pill Luc...

I won't go as low as you have, posting links to social media pages, physical threats and questioning your manhood. But yet I am the piece of shit?
Maybe all of us should step back from our computer for a bit and put things into perspective. An arbitrator will decide and will look at FACTS.
---------- ADS -----------
 
TFTMB heavy
Rank 7
Rank 7
Posts: 656
Joined: Mon Feb 16, 2004 9:58 am

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by TFTMB heavy »

altiplano wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:14 pm I don't see an attitude that thinks they're better, I see an attitude that doesn't acknowledge a reasonably good deal for them at the cost of the other guys.

It's not our deal, but it only has a negative affect on one group... just is what it is... I don't have to like it though.
This is the part that grinds my gears, when AC pilots say they will loose so much in this deal and it's not good for them, only for TS pilots. Let's go back to pre-pandemic, you were saying it back then. Shuffling 650 pilots in a list of 4500 when they come with tails, routes, slots and pax has minimal impact. Who knows what the final outcome would have been on both groups once the dust settles but certainly not a huge setback for AC pilots. TS pilots were not marching in to take your seats and upgrades. We were all established within our own list with our own growth.

So was that situation a good one for TS pilots? From a stability point of view, absolutely. But then again, nobody knows if TS would have pulled thru the slump, nobody. Personally the only thing I envy from my friends at AC is their DB pension.

Post-pandemic is a different scenario entirely. My opinion is that AC needs TS more than they did pre-pandemic to get out of this mess and potentially double the recovery rate on the Sun and TA markets. Does TS need AC? Pretty clear that we do, just to see the day where we can operate flights with decent loads, quarantine is killing us.

Will the merging of the two unions be messier now, most likely. But I think both groups will get it pretty bad if we fight each other and management gets what they want from arbitration.
---------- ADS -----------
 
User avatar
jetpilot
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 199
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:02 am

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by jetpilot »

FL-280 wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:17 am
jetpilot wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:18 pm
You so funny i was hired at 30 yrs old you keep insulting me? Be a man.....
Take a chill pill Luc...

I won't go as low as you have, posting links to social media pages, physical threats and questioning your manhood. But yet I am the piece of shit?
Maybe all of us should step back from our computer for a bit and put things into perspective. An arbitrator will decide and will look at FACTS.
I agree with you! it is a very emotional time for all of us you need to understand i love my Air Transat family and we have no power on what is happening next .
---------- ADS -----------
 
FL-280
Rank 5
Rank 5
Posts: 305
Joined: Fri Jan 20, 2017 6:45 pm

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by FL-280 »

jetpilot wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:40 am
I agree with you! it is a very emotional time for all of us you need to understand i love my Air Transat family and we have no power on what is happening next .
I can relate to that! It is a very emotional time for us too. We have that in common, we both love our jobs and are holding on to what we have...
At the end of the day, it's out of our hands. Mergers are never easy, and it's my second one in two years. So, I am tired of giving, giving and more giving (last merger went DOH) and getting nothing in return.

Maybe we will fly together someday, maybe we won't. But if we do, I am sure we will find that we have more issues we agree on than we think.

Cheers
---------- ADS -----------
 
altiplano
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 5683
Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2005 2:24 pm

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by altiplano »

TFTMB heavy wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:42 am
altiplano wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:14 pm I don't see an attitude that thinks they're better, I see an attitude that doesn't acknowledge a reasonably good deal for them at the cost of the other guys.

It's not our deal, but it only has a negative affect on one group... just is what it is... I don't have to like it though.
This is the part that grinds my gears, when AC pilots say they will loose so much in this deal and it's not good for them, only for TS pilots. Let's go back to pre-pandemic, you were saying it back then. Shuffling 650 pilots in a list of 4500 when they come with tails, routes, slots and pax has minimal impact. Who knows what the final outcome would have been on both groups once the dust settles but certainly not a huge setback for AC pilots. TS pilots were not marching in to take your seats and upgrades. We were all established within our own list with our own growth.

So was that situation a good one for TS pilots? From a stability point of view, absolutely. But then again, nobody knows if TS would have pulled thru the slump, nobody. Personally the only thing I envy from my friends at AC is their DB pension.

Post-pandemic is a different scenario entirely. My opinion is that AC needs TS more than they did pre-pandemic to get out of this mess and potentially double the recovery rate on the Sun and TA markets. Does TS need AC? Pretty clear that we do, just to see the day where we can operate flights with decent loads, quarantine is killing us.

Will the merging of the two unions be messier now, most likely. But I think both groups will get it pretty bad if we fight each other and management gets what they want from arbitration.
We'll have to agree to disagree then.

Fact is the combined airline will be smaller than were they seperate. Transat is now bringing even fewer fins than they were pre-pandemic and those will simply replace older 320s that will now leave the AC fleet. Rouseau already said that. So there won't be more fins. And which slot limited airports does Transat have rights to that AC doesn't?

There is no growth here. Just the elimination of a competitor. AC was already going to be smaller post-pandemic, and now we have more people looking for seats.

I know you liked your deal at Transat, that's good, I like my deal here too. I like and respect you and your colleagues, and when you come here that's fine, it's not personal, it's not against you, it's just a shitty outcome for a bunch of AC guys that have already lost seniority/upgrades/job/etc with this pandemic and are now going to be pushed down the list by guys coming from an airline that is barely flying as is.

I look forward to being proven wrong and seeing a ton of growth and a pilot requirement bid for 6000 pilots after the merger and pandemic settles.
---------- ADS -----------
 
rudder
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 4127
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:10 pm

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by rudder »

altiplano wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:42 am
I look forward to being proven wrong and seeing a ton of growth and a pilot requirement bid for 6000 pilots after the merger and pandemic settles.
Desirable? Yes. Likely? No.

Let’s skip 2021 which is a crapshoot and is artificially maintaining some degree of pilot surplus.

Guesses for merged active in a combined bid (factoring in AC only pilot staffing estimate for summer 2022 via Bid 20-02/3300):

2022 - 3700

2023 - 4200

2024 - 4700 *(represents previous combined peak active pilots)

2025+ - ???

AC never reached over 5000 required pilots or a seniority list over 4500. Only on paper (Bid 2019-02). That included a Rouge fleet of 60 airplanes. TS inventory will form part of the reconstituted Rouge/LCC as that segment recovers. Another poster suggested that the deployable TS fleet will be 12 330/ 15 321.

I cannot envision the merged entity doing any pilot hiring prior to 2024. Age 65 attrition will help although quite a few that were due 2021-2024 went early in the incentivized programs.

I hope for the inactive pilots and the next generation of pilots in waiting that the recovery comes sooner and that growth rates equal or exceed 2018/2019, but there are many hurdles that remain in the airline sector. Canada remains a country with a population base of just 35 million. There will still be intense domestic based and international based competition looking to restore capacity. Being pragmatic in estimating recovery for planning purposes is wiser than being overly optimistic.
---------- ADS -----------
 
altiplano
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 5683
Joined: Sat Jan 22, 2005 2:24 pm

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by altiplano »

rudder wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:16 am
altiplano wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:42 am
I look forward to being proven wrong and seeing a ton of growth and a pilot requirement bid for 6000 pilots after the merger and pandemic settles.
Desirable? Yes. Likely? No.

Let’s skip 2021 which is a crapshoot and is artificially maintaining some degree of pilot surplus.

Guesses for merged active in a combined bid (factoring in AC only pilot staffing estimate for summer 2022 via Bid 20-02/3300):

2022 - 3700

2023 - 4200

2024 - 4700 *(represents previous combined peak active pilots)

2025+ - ???

AC never reached over 5000 required pilots or a seniority list over 4500. Only on paper (Bid 2019-02). That included a Rouge fleet of 60 airplanes. TS inventory will form part of the reconstituted Rouge/LCC as that segment recovers. Another poster suggested that the deployable TS fleet will be 12 330/ 15 321.

I cannot envision the merged entity doing any pilot hiring prior to 2024. Age 65 attrition will help although quite a few that were due 2021-2024 went early in the incentivized programs.

I hope for the inactive pilots and the next generation of pilots in waiting that the recovery comes sooner and that growth rates equal or exceed 2018/2019, but there are many hurdles that remain in the airline sector. Canada remains a country with a population base of just 35 million. There will still be intense domestic based and international based competition looking to restore capacity. Being pragmatic in estimating recovery for planning purposes is wiser than being overly optimistic.
Of course it's not likely. That's my point.

I would characterise your forecast numbers as optimistic, yet we will have to integrate 650 pilots while we lay off and downbid further positions. 27 planes, that we will retire fins to integrate,

I'm not sure why some guys can't accept that isn't something I would want.

Look forward to being proven wrong... but I don't think I will be.
---------- ADS -----------
 
rudder
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 4127
Joined: Wed Mar 08, 2006 12:10 pm

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by rudder »

altiplano wrote: Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:30 am
Of course it's not likely. That's my point.

I would characterise your forecast numbers as optimistic, yet we will have to integrate 650 pilots while we lay off and downbid further positions. 27 planes, that we will retire fins to integrate,

I'm not sure why some guys can't accept that isn't something I would want.

Look forward to being proven wrong... but I don't think I will be.
I agree. There are certainly some fleet variables that are not necessarily manifest in the current 2022 staffing projection.

And there are some very large aircraft that went to Marana that are probably not coming back. And I don’t mean 767’s.

It would not surprise me to see a 330/787 WB fleet as the end state (although the 350 is a beautiful airplane). I do not see 468 seat configured aircraft being part of the future. And it would take a permanent cargo conversion to maximize revenue from that platform in the next few years. Highly unlikely.
---------- ADS -----------
 
FL320
Rank 6
Rank 6
Posts: 461
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2010 11:44 am

Re: Air Canada and Transat announce Updated Purchase Price at $5 per share

Post by FL320 »

altiplano wrote: Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:14 pm I don't see an attitude that thinks they're better, I see an attitude that doesn't acknowledge a reasonably good deal for them at the cost of the other guys.
Just curious: You -as B737max pilot- do you acknowledge a reasonably good deal at the cost of the other guys -your junior colleagues on other fleets- that have been laid off? (my good friend FO on the 320 is one of them and does not say nice words about it)

And here is why YOU won the lottery in this unfair world: https://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2020/10/18/ ... -canada-1 « Ottawa ready to buy parts of AC »
---------- ADS -----------
 
Post Reply

Return to “Air Transat”