AC and TRZ Agree to Terminate Arrangement

[tsgas]

I thought there were other buyers waiting in the wings, excuse pun, to buy Transat...

If their books show profit, pre-pandemic, and they have a good following with travellers, it seems to me it’s a good deal for a interested buyer.

If these points are not true then its a matter of pros and cons of buying a weaker competitor during Aviations worst downfall or waiting it to go its natural course.

An outside bid from outside the industry sounds hopeful though...

They were losing money way before the pandemic.

[Just another canuck]

…

[altiplano]

I exaggerated. I wouldn't have 30 years even if I went to 65 and there's no way I'm doing that. I'll be 56 when the wife retires and if she's not working, niether am I. Haha. I'm a baby? Lol. I had a laugh at that.

Guess I was just in the mood to ruffle feathers.

"BuT mUh Seniority" is a common argument both on here and elsewhere and it's exhausting to listen to. I get the feeling there are a significant amount of AC employees who would rather see every Transat employee out of work or starting from scratch than lose a single seniority number. Which to me is beyond just selfish.

I wouldn't actually do what I stated above, unless of course the guy or gal I was working with gave me reason to. Again, guess I just felt like poking the bear. I also get the feeling that if this goes through, I'll be hated by half my colleagues the rest of my career for something I had no control over. Time will tell.

Okay, well that's good then. I just went with what you said.

"Selfish" LOL... why do you think Transat would be gone? Quebec government is promising backing now. Plus there's PKP and Quebecor.

And you prefer Transat, right? That's what you should be cheering for.

If not though, is it somehow AC pilots' duty to save you and your career at their own expense of diminished career prospects, and extended layoffs of their own membership? What about all the other Transat AT employee and Air Canada employee redundancies? No problem as long as you get your seniority number?

[Localizer]

Do any of you ever take a step back and look at the behaviour of “professional pilots” when we talk about employers? The tribalism is disgusting, especially because these companies, at the end of the day, really don’t give a shit about any of us. They’re going to do what’s best for them, not us. The only thing we really have is other pilots, and if you read this thread you quickly realize you can’t bank on that.

Our profession sucks because everyone is trained to keep eyes forward and only worry about the guy in front of them and to say @#$! the guy behind me.

Instead of calling yourself an AC pilot, or an AT pilot or WJ pilot .. how about just a pilot? Or do the egos require a corporate label to justify the dick size and class of citizenship?

Can we argue and not agree on things? Sure, but when it comes down to standing in the unemployment line, we should be doing everything we can for one another.

“You can easily judge the character of a man by how he treats those who can do nothing for him.”—Malcolm S. Forbes

[altiplano]

Kumbaya bitches... LOL...

100% corporatizations do what's best for themselves or sometimes they do what's best for the CEO's ego.

It's all perspective Loc.

I know why you support the potential deal, but I'm not sure why you can't see why other guys might not be enthused it's at their loss.

and your quote? "treats those that can do nothing for him"?

Firstly, I don't see anyone being mistreated, this is discussion... or are you in the "words hurt" " everyone needs to be included" snowflake camp now?

Secondly, even if... this is less than nothing, this is negative effect, negative prospects on earnings, scheduling, advancement, etc. etc. not to mention current colleagues on the street longer. There is only negative for the other side here.

You can easily judge the character of a man by how he treats those who protest that he wants to kick them in the balls—altiplano

[TFTMB heavy]

Do any of you ever take a step back and look at the behaviour of “professional pilots” when we talk about employers? The tribalism is disgusting, especially because these companies, at the end of the day, really don’t give a shit about any of us. They’re going to do what’s best for them, not us. The only thing we really have is other pilots, and if you read this thread you quickly realize you can’t bank on that.

Our profession sucks because everyone is trained to keep eyes forward and only worry about the guy in front of them and to say @#$! the guy behind me.

Instead of calling yourself an AC pilot, or an AT pilot or WJ pilot .. how about just a pilot? Or do the egos require a corporate label to justify the dick size and class of citizenship?

Can we argue and not agree on things? Sure, but when it comes down to standing in the unemployment line, we should be doing everything we can for one another.

“You can easily judge the character of a man by how he treats those who can do nothing for him.”—Malcolm S. Forbes

Amen!

[rudder]

There is no comparison between the AC/CDN merger scenario circa 2001 and the AC/TRZ merger scenario circa 2021.

AC was in no win situation vis-a-vis CDN. AC would have suffered financially with continued competition against a wounded CDN, and ended up suffering by virtue of the consolidated balance sheet resulting from the consummated transaction and the ensuing recession.

With respect to TRZ, AC be fine either way. Recall, this initiative was first analyzed in 2019 with the aviation industry and the economy operating at peak capacity. The acquisition of TRZ would achieve two primary benefits. Additional capacity through acquisition that was not otherwise available organically. And rationalized capacity on overlapping routes which would result in improved yields.

Review of the transaction in the COVID/post-COVID era seem to generally support these benefits. However, conditions imposed by both CDN and EU regulators may impact or diminish these benefits. In addition, both corporations are looking at dramatically different balance sheets than originally contemplated, in particular debt. With COVID related reduced revenue and the unknown of Federal aid, the ‘end state’ of these balance sheets remains to be determined.

MR will be judged by the final decision that he takes on this file. It was clearly CR’s baby. But the fortunes of AC are now the sole purview and responsibility of MR. He is accountable to the AC BOD. And the BOD is accountable to the AC shareholders.

I predict that MR will be looking for a home run in order to close on the transaction. What that will look like remains to be determined but AC is squarely back in the drivers seat. Worse case, TRZ gets bailed out by a weak investor or the QC government. It would not be on solid financial footing leading to possibly years of future operating losses. That is why the stated preference of the TRZ BOD is an AC transaction.

[TFTMB heavy]

There is no comparison between the AC/CDN merger scenario circa 2001 and the AC/TRZ merger scenario circa 2021.

AC was in no win situation vis-a-vis CDN. AC would have suffered financially with continued competition against a wounded CDN, and ended up suffering by virtue of the consolidated balance sheet resulting from the consummated transaction and the ensuing recession.

With respect to TRZ, AC be fine either way. Recall, this initiative was first analyzed in 2019 with the aviation industry and the economy operating at peak capacity. The acquisition of TRZ would achieve two primary benefits. Additional capacity through acquisition that was not otherwise available organically. And rationalized capacity on overlapping routes which would result in improved yields.

Review of the transaction in the COVID/post-COVID era seem to generally support these benefits. However, conditions imposed by both CDN and EU regulators may impact or diminish these benefits. In addition, both corporations are looking at dramatically different balance sheets than originally contemplated, in particular debt. With COVID related reduced revenue and the unknown of Federal aid, the ‘end state’ of these balance sheets remains to be determined.

MR will be judged by the final decision that he takes on this file. It was clearly CR’s baby. But the fortunes of AC are now the sole purview and responsibility of MR. He is accountable to the AC BOD. And the BOD is accountable to the AC shareholders.

I predict that MR will be looking for a home run in order to close on the transaction. What that will look like remains to be determined but AC is squarely back in the drivers seat. Worse case, TRZ gets bailed out by a weak investor or the QC government. It would not be on solid financial footing leading to possibly years of future operating losses. That is why the stated preference of the TRZ BOD is an AC transaction.

Well said and similar to what I have said about capacity vs foreign airlines.

My guess is that AC is pressuring the feds to "support" the debt or part of the debt TS has taken on since there has been no government money for airlines so far. The feds in return have been asking the airlines for a stake and seats on the boards in exchange for a "bailout". Ac has been very clear about not wanting to give the government a stake or a seat on the board, the feds have backed down on board seats as of late. I have not read anything on the WS side of things and that's even more convoluted with Onex ownership. My best guess is that this is where the stalemate stands.

On the TS side of things they have told employees that they want the company to continue in the hands of someone who will carry the name and direction with as many employees as possible. They want someone who has the financial capacity to support it until it is profitable again and that is why AC is their first choice. Anyone else coming in to grab TS is a foolish if you ask me, TS has had to open it's books and reveal secrets to AC during the due diligence portion. Anyone else taking the keys right now can't take back what AC knows and is a great disadvantage.

[LittleNelly]

If air canada is using Transat to get government aid, why would Transat not just continue independently in all its wonderful glory if said aid materializes? Why is the current board so desperate to sell? Is it that Transat was always a house of cards waiting to crumble.

If Transat is so structurally dysfunctional why would AC run it in its current structure, is it not more likely AC gets the axe out and reorganizes the whole operation. Air Canada Vacations does not operate its own fleet, so what makes people think Transat would. The joys of monopoly is customers can complain as much as they want but it doesn’t matter.

[Localizer]

Kumbaya bitches... LOL...

100% corporatizations do what's best for themselves or sometimes they do what's best for the CEO's ego.

It's all perspective Loc.

I know why you support the potential deal, but I'm not sure why you can't see why other guys might not be enthused it's at their loss.

and your quote? "treats those that can do nothing for him"?

Firstly, I don't see anyone being mistreated, this is discussion... or are you in the "words hurt" " everyone needs to be included" snowflake camp now?

Secondly, even if... this is less than nothing, this is negative effect, negative prospects on earnings, scheduling, advancement, etc. etc. not to mention current colleagues on the street longer. There is only negative for the other side here.

You can easily judge the character of a man by how he treats those who protest that he wants to kick them in the balls—altiplano

You lost me at “Kumbaya Bitches! .... LOL!”, act like a child, I’ll treat you like a child.

[tsgas]

If air canada is using Transat to get government aid, why would Transat not just continue independently in all its wonderful glory if said aid materializes? Why is the current board so desperate to sell? Is it that Transat was always a house of cards waiting to crumble.

If Transat is so structurally dysfunctional why would AC run it in its current structure, is it not more likely AC gets the axe out and reorganizes the whole operation. Air Canada Vacations does not operate its own fleet, so what makes people think Transat would. The joys of monopoly is customers can complain as much as they want but it doesn’t matter.

"MONOPOLY' ? You got to to be referring to the board game.

[altiplano]

Kumbaya bitches... LOL...

100% corporatizations do what's best for themselves or sometimes they do what's best for the CEO's ego.

It's all perspective Loc.

I know why you support the potential deal, but I'm not sure why you can't see why other guys might not be enthused it's at their loss.

and your quote? "treats those that can do nothing for him"?

Firstly, I don't see anyone being mistreated, this is discussion... or are you in the "words hurt" " everyone needs to be included" snowflake camp now?

Secondly, even if... this is less than nothing, this is negative effect, negative prospects on earnings, scheduling, advancement, etc. etc. not to mention current colleagues on the street longer. There is only negative for the other side here.

You can easily judge the character of a man by how he treats those who protest that he wants to kick them in the balls—altiplano

You lost me at “Kumbaya Bitches! .... LOL!”, act like a child, I’ll treat you like a child.

Understood, snowflake camp it is.

Lighten up.

[Localizer]

I’m the farthest thing from a snowflake bud, but the contempt people are displaying has become nauseating at this point.

[altiplano]

I’m the farthest thing from a snowflake bud, but the contempt people are displaying has become nauseating at this point.

I'm sure you aren't. As I said, lighten up. Can't we come to an understanding?

I'm not offended that you want what's best for you and your colleagues, I get that's what you want... so why are you offended that I would want what's best for me and mine?

Contempt? Not at all, I wish you the best. But it doesn't mean that I have to happily give up my future for you.

Again, I understand your position, where you're coming from. Why can't you understand where I might be coming from?

I don't want a kick in the nuts...

[Localizer]

=altiplano post_id=1145066 time=1614024229 user_id=3052]
[quote=Localizer post_id=<a href="tel:1145061">1145061</a> time=<a href="tel:1614019397">1614019397</a> user_id=2924]
I’m the farthest thing from a snowflake bud, but the contempt people are displaying has become nauseating at this point.

I'm sure you aren't. As I said, lighten up. Can't we come to an understanding?

I'm not offended that you want what's best for you and your colleagues, I get that's what you want... so why are you offended that I would want what's best for me and mine?

Contempt? Not at all, I wish you the best. But it doesn't mean that I have to happily give up my future for you.

Again, I understand your position, where you're coming from. Why can't you understand where I might be coming from?

I don't want a kick in the nuts...

I haven’t said which side of this game I sit on, but I do have skin in the game. I try not to let that be the focal point of my comments, instead try to see things from both perspectives.

I read your comments and process them into the bigger picture. The concerns you have are justified, and more than likely shared by all others involved. For instance, all seniority will be affected, both sides .. how are you personally losing more than anyone else? (Relative to where you currently sit) Layoffs, CR already stated that layoffs will be equal, how is anyone losing anymore? I see more loss than gains for the entire group in the short term, but there is a lot of potential in the future.

It’s tough to hold onto the hope that this will work itself out and we will all “win” in the end, specially when all we seem to do, is keep giving with not much in return. By nature I am an optimist and I hope once this pandemic is over we see the equivalent of the roaring twenties come back and version 2.0 of the Golden era of aviation. If that does happen ... none of this will matter and it’ll be but a memory.

[Sharklasers]

=altiplano post_id=1145066 time=1614024229 user_id=3052]
[quote=Localizer post_id=<a href="tel:1145061">1145061</a> time=<a href="tel:1614019397">1614019397</a> user_id=2924]
I’m the farthest thing from a snowflake bud, but the contempt people are displaying has become nauseating at this point.

I'm sure you aren't. As I said, lighten up. Can't we come to an understanding?

I'm not offended that you want what's best for you and your colleagues, I get that's what you want... so why are you offended that I would want what's best for me and mine?

Contempt? Not at all, I wish you the best. But it doesn't mean that I have to happily give up my future for you.

Again, I understand your position, where you're coming from. Why can't you understand where I might be coming from?

I don't want a kick in the nuts...

I haven’t said which side of this game I sit on, but I do have skin in the game. I try not to let that be the focal point of my comments, instead try to see things from both perspectives.

I read your comments and process them into the bigger picture. The concerns you have are justified, and more than likely shared by all others involved. For instance, all seniority will be affected, both sides .. how are you personally losing more than anyone else? (Relative to where you currently sit) Layoffs, CR already stated that layoffs will be equal, how is anyone losing anymore? I see more loss than gains for the entire group in the short term, but there is a lot of potential in the future.

It’s tough to hold onto the hope that this will work itself out and we will all “win” in the end, specially when all we seem to do, is keep giving with not much in return. By nature I am an optimist and I hope once this pandemic is over we see the equivalent of the roaring twenties come back and version 2.0 of the Golden era of aviation. If that does happen ... none of this will matter and it’ll be but a memory.

you are willfully ignoring altiplanos point.

I assume You are intelligent and able to understand if you choose to.
If Transat has 700 guys laid off and AC buys them and recalling those 700 guys delays recalling AC pilots how is that not the AC pilots losing more than they would if Transat doesn’t get bought.
We do not work for the same company, we don’t even have the same union. Why would we as Air Canada pilots strive for an “equal” outcome to our own determine as you say?

The level of entitlement in this thread by some Transat guys boggles the mind. Not only are the AC pilots supposed to sacrifice their own jobs and career progression they are expected to be happy about it in the name of solidarity with the Transat pilots.
The very same pilots who were always willing to do the job for at least a 20% discount while at the same time complaining about ACPAs poor bargaining dragging the industry down.

[columbia]

Let’s look at things rationally. This deal won’t happen, AC can’t afford it, unless they have a massive bailout.

[landshark]

Air Canada was sitting just over 8B at the end of December in unrestricted liquidity.

[columbia]

Air Canada was sitting just over 8B at the end of December in unrestricted liquidity.

And how much current liabilities? Plus take into account TRZ’s liabilities. I’m a TS pilot, looking at things logically. I don’t think now is the time for a merger. Now is the time for a fuc**n industry bailout. Then when things come back to normal in a couple of years we can talk about a merger.

[Localizer]

you are willfully ignoring altiplanos point.

I willfully ignored nothing ..

If Transat has 700 guys laid off and AC buys them and recalling those 700 guys delays recalling AC pilots how is that not the AC pilots losing more than they would if Transat doesn’t get bought.

You speak as if seniority list will be blended as of day one .. it won't. The two companies will continue to operate separate for a period of time, recalls will be on a ratio basis as per CR.

We do not work for the same company, we don’t even have the same union.

If the merger goes through we will work for the same company, as for the union, we will all have a vote on that as I assume there will be a representation drive (not entirely sure about that).

Why would we as Air Canada pilots strive for an “equal” outcome to our own determine as you say?

You can "strive" for whatever you want, but you won't hold the cards in that case, it will be up to an arbitrator and precedence.

The level of entitlement in this thread by some Transat guys boggles the mind.

You speak from the position as though you look down on other pilots in the industry (proof is your 20% discount comment) .. so this comment has a particular irony to it.

Not only are the AC pilots supposed to sacrifice their own jobs and career progression they are expected to be happy about it in the name of solidarity with the Transat pilots.

You speak as if the Transat pilots brought this upon you. We are all merely cogs in a machine that tells us what to do, we make no rules and have really no say at the end of the day in corporate matters, so we bring our frustrations to the internet and throw spears at the only people who will listen .. I have no expectations anymore .. I come here to watch the amygdala hijack that takes place in every other thread.

The very same pilots who were always willing to do the job for at least a 20% discount while at the same time complaining about ACPAs poor bargaining dragging the industry down.

ACPA has a good contract, the only people I see complaining about the ACPA contract, is ACPA pilots, the 20% discounters as you call them are trying to get to ACPA's level, maybe find pride in that?

My point is simple .. you're kicking dirt at the people sitting in the same boat as you. We will all be affected in one way or another, some positive and some negative, it's out of our hands.

[Localizer]

Air Canada was sitting just over 8B at the end of December in unrestricted liquidity.

And how much current liabilities? Plus take into account TRZ’s liabilities. I’m a TS pilot, looking at things logically. I don’t think now is the time for a merger. Now is the time for a fuc**n industry bailout. Then when things come back to normal in a couple of years we can talk about a merger.

This is the best time for a merger .. AC saved $530 million on this deal. Good times are just around the corner and the government sounds close to announcing sectorial aid.

[rudder]

Air Canada was sitting just over 8B at the end of December in unrestricted liquidity.

Burning $15MM/day in Q1 2021. That rate will continue through April but hopefully start to abate in May with nominal improvement for June-August. Summer 2021 is not looking good for unrestricted international travel and meaningful revenue recovery.

So, absent government support (non-repayable) AC will burn through $1.8B up to April 30. May-August could be up to another $1.2-1.5B assuming that AC can get daily cash burn down to $10MM. Unrestricted liquidity will drop to less than $5B.

My guess is that loans are on the way. Hopefully with subsidized interest rates allowing for replacement of less affordable loan facilities. But that is still debt. Absent the option for forgiveness, it will eventually have to be repaid from future cash flows.

Right now AC is playing a guessing game about future revenue. There is very little that is reliably predictable when Canada remains so far behind the vaccination curve and so restrictive in not only international but domestic travel.

AC will likely avoid CCAA. But it will take years to rehabilitate the balance sheet to where it was prior to COVID. And the fate of the TRZ transaction will be determined by that calculation.

[Sharklasers]

The level of entitlement in this thread by some Transat guys boggles the mind.

You speak from the position as though you look down on other pilots in the industry (proof is your 20% discount comment) .. so this comment has a particular irony to it.

I speak from the position of an employed and working pilot who hopes to stay that way and regain his captaincy before retirement. A Transat merger will not do anything to propel me or my colleagues in that same boat any closer to that goal. In fact it will do quite the opposite, so pardon us if our god given survival instincts offend you in any way.

[Localizer]

[quote=Localizer post_id=<a href="tel:1145085">1145085</a> time=<a href="tel:1614034992">1614034992</a> user_id=2924]

The level of entitlement in this thread by some Transat guys boggles the mind.

You speak from the position as though you look down on other pilots in the industry (proof is your 20% discount comment) .. so this comment has a particular irony to it.


I speak from the position of an employed and working pilot who hopes to stay that way and regain his captaincy before retirement. A Transat merger will not do anything to propel me or my colleagues in that same boat any closer to that goal. In fact it will do quite the opposite, so pardon us if our god given survival instincts offend you in any way.

Again, there are people at AT in the same boat as you, are they less valuable then yourself? Self preservation is an instinct in all of us .. I’m just trying to open your eyes to “the entitled Transat pilots” that are doing the same as you. More similarities then differences.

BTW I’m not offended in any way ... should I be?

[LittleNelly]

It really is amazing the Transat people who expect Air Canada people to give up their positions/jobs and are surprised that they are not happy about it.
It is very clear that a combination means less jobs, what is so hard to understand about that. Don’t expect Air Canada employees to be happy to share that pain of lost transat positions.
Usually employee groups have fought tooth and nail against mergers especially when it is declared that it will result in significant job loss. Yet many from Transat don’t care at all as long as they get to become an air canada pilot, is it really that bad to work at Transat?