Bankruptcy.

simply_no_one · Post by **simply_no_one** » Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:03 pm

If I was a fairly junior pilot at Air Transat, I would be applying to Flair right now.

haironfire · Post by **haironfire** » Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:20 pm

A good point. How do you play this one?

2 very big loans coming due for the company. As a very good smart business pilot ( which I pretend to be) all you can do is watch the outcome.

sit and wait, or do you do something about it?

I have friends at AT. I do not say this to be mean, only we are ALL vulnerable. Be very careful.

simply_no_one · Post by **simply_no_one** » Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:49 pm

I think a lot of AT employees are blind (on purpose or by ignorance) to how bad the current situation is. AT needs a bailout asap, or a heavy hitter investor willing to take on what... 500 million in debt obligations?

Going to be an interesting few months. Hopefully it all works out and AT sticks around as more competition is good, and everyone keeps their job. But a lot hinges on the government and if the last year has been any indicator, I'd be worried.

haironfire wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:20 pm A good point. How do you play this one?

2 very big loans coming due for the company. As a very good smart business pilot ( which I pretend to be) all you can do is watch the outcome.

sit and wait, or do you do something about it?

If you are on layoff and quite junior right now, finding other work would be smart. Recalls may take time... if AT goes through CCAA they could end up smaller which could mean years before a recall. AT went through some massive growth over the last few years, it's not impossible to think they could be a 300-400 pilot operation for the near future. Find something to pay the bills and take care of yourself and your family and hold on to your recall rights.

fish4life · Post by **fish4life** » Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:25 am

CCAA is probably the best thing for Transat, if they sneak by without going through CCAA they will end up hindered by debt and it will be tougher going forward. If they go through CCAA they can clear some bad debt and aircraft leases allowing them to be healthier on the recovery side. As a potential buyer of Transat I would wait for CCAA and scoop them up after not buy a debt laden company before

Splash · Post by **Splash** » Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:49 am

fish4life wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 10:25 am CCAA is probably the best thing for Transat, if they sneak by without going through CCAA they will end up hindered by debt and it will be tougher going forward. If they go through CCAA they can clear some bad debt and aircraft leases allowing them to be healthier on the recovery side. As a potential buyer of Transat I would wait for CCAA and scoop them up after not buy a debt laden company before

I agree with everything you wrote in your post, however it's important to remember employees usually also take a haircut in the CCAA process.

TFTMB heavy · Post by **TFTMB heavy** » Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:16 pm

simply_no_one wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:49 pm I think a lot of AT employees are blind (on purpose or by ignorance) to how bad the current situation is. AT needs a bailout asap, or a heavy hitter investor willing to take on what... 500 million in debt obligations?

Not at all. A lot of people are worried about CCAA and their future but working for a charter company that has survived for this long does bring some hope. If we pull through we will bounce back leaner and let's hope we can make some money.

Employees will have to make concessions going through CCAA but we would regardless anyways. TS has knocked on ALPAs door in the past and it will not be any different this time around.

Latitude · Post by **Latitude** » Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:49 pm

TFTMB heavy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:16 pm
simply_no_one wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:49 pm I think a lot of AT employees are blind (on purpose or by ignorance) to how bad the current situation is. AT needs a bailout asap, or a heavy hitter investor willing to take on what... 500 million in debt obligations?

Not at all. A lot of people are worried about CCAA and their future but working for a charter company that has survived for this long does bring some hope. If we pull through we will bounce back leaner and let's hope we can make some money.

Employees will have to make concessions going through CCAA but we would regardless anyways. TS has knocked on ALPAs door in the past and it will not be any different this time around.

Cant believe you’re replying to someone who says a group of employees is ignorant... how classy is that ?

TFTMB heavy · Post by **TFTMB heavy** » Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:04 pm

Latitude wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:49 pm
TFTMB heavy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:16 pm
simply_no_one wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 9:49 pm I think a lot of AT employees are blind (on purpose or by ignorance) to how bad the current situation is. AT needs a bailout asap, or a heavy hitter investor willing to take on what... 500 million in debt obligations?

Not at all. A lot of people are worried about CCAA and their future but working for a charter company that has survived for this long does bring some hope. If we pull through we will bounce back leaner and let's hope we can make some money.

Employees will have to make concessions going through CCAA but we would regardless anyways. TS has knocked on ALPAs door in the past and it will not be any different this time around.
Cant believe you’re replying to someone who says a group of employees is ignorant... how classy is that ?

I have no idea what you’re trying to say.

tsgas · Post by **tsgas** » Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:42 am

Sharklasers wrote: ↑Sun Apr 04, 2021 6:22 pm
Dronepiper wrote: ↑Sun Apr 04, 2021 5:59 pm Captain Kirk (aka Keith Demello) you can go $#%& yourself!!!!! .
Some asshole is posting pretending to be Keith, that user name has 2 K’s. Keith didn’t start this thread.
Transat will likely go bankrupt and restructure but they will still be around and eventually all their pilots will have their jobs back. AC went through it and came out stronger and more nimble than ever.
Transat will need the right people in place to see them through to the other side.
Calin Rovenescue is working for Brookfield now leading their aviation investment business and it wouldn’t shock me at all to see them enter the ring once Transat is available for pennies on the dollar.
Good time are ahead for Transat gentleman, they just have to see it through.

Based on Brookfield's history , it would be a shock for them to acquire Transat.

DanWEC · Post by **DanWEC** » Sat Apr 10, 2021 6:09 pm

The wildcard being left out the equation is the gov't aid. It's imminent, albeit a fucking year late.
TRZ is far from the author if its own destruction, this is an unprecedented and unpredictable situation imposed by our own gov't, and it's impossible to draw parallels or comparisons to past situations or deals. TRZ definitely won't go under or be in receivership with the aid. I have no idea how it's going to play out, I only the landscape and the players will be a little different.

altiplano · Post by **altiplano** » Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:38 pm

We really can't imagine the depravity of this government.

Their motives are on a track so different from what a reasonable individual can rationalize.

fish4life · Post by **fish4life** » Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:50 pm

altiplano wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:38 pm We really can't imagine the depravity of this government.

Their motives are on a track so different from what a reasonable individual can rationalize.

Agreed over 370 something days since they said airline aid was coming soon.

I guess Trudeau realized planes don’t run in electricity

tsgas · Post by **tsgas** » Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:26 am

Latitude wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:41 pm
redbusdriver wrote: ↑Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:07 pm the thread is valid cause it likely will happen. i am confident ac will survive as we are to big to fail. trudeau knows this he'll give us some help in a few weeks, you'll see.
Transat never went bankrupt or CCAA in 34 years... it’s name isn’t Air Canada

There's always the first time.

Jean-Luc Monette · Post by **Jean-Luc Monette** » Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:48 am

tsgas wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:26 am

There's always the first time.

Really funny...

Smoothpilot · Post by **Smoothpilot** » Sat Apr 24, 2021 7:04 pm

At what price do we start to dump this stock? It's lightly hovering at 4.51?

Latitude · Post by **Latitude** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:08 pm

Well this thread didn’t age very well..

simply_no_one · Post by **simply_no_one** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:53 pm

Latitude wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:08 pm Well this thread didn’t age very well..

Give it time...

A debt ridden airline with high interest loans and no way to pay them off? Sounds like a recipe for CCAA.

Latitude · Post by **Latitude** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:20 pm

simply_no_one wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:53 pm
Latitude wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:08 pm Well this thread didn’t age very well..
Give it time...

A debt ridden airline with high interest loans and no way to pay them off? Sounds like a recipe for CCAA.

Don’t be pessimistic…

They’ll never fail. I think it’s pretty clear with the current biggest shareholders (they’re ready to put $$$ if need be) + Qc government. It’s not going anywhere.

Captain Kirkk · Post by **Captain Kirkk** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:48 pm

Latitude wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:08 pm Well this thread didn’t age very well..

Give it time, I’ve been around this industry long enough to know what’s coming.

KD

simply_no_one · Post by **simply_no_one** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:29 pm

Latitude wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:20 pm
simply_no_one wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:53 pm
Latitude wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:08 pm Well this thread didn’t age very well..
Give it time...

A debt ridden airline with high interest loans and no way to pay them off? Sounds like a recipe for CCAA.
Don’t be pessimistic…

They’ll never fail. I think it’s pretty clear with the current biggest shareholders (they’re ready to put $$$ if need be) + Qc government. It’s not going anywhere.

We'll see.

tsgas · Post by **tsgas** » Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:28 pm

Latitude wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 6:20 pm
simply_no_one wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:53 pm
Latitude wrote: ↑Fri Apr 30, 2021 5:08 pm Well this thread didn’t age very well..
Give it time...

A debt ridden airline with high interest loans and no way to pay them off? Sounds like a recipe for CCAA.
Don’t be pessimistic…

They’ll never fail. I think it’s pretty clear with the current biggest shareholders (they’re ready to put $$$ if need be) + Qc government. It’s not going anywhere.

That sounds like another Cubana Airlines style outfit.

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