Fourth wave discussion thread

[montado]

This thread is for discussion related to the impending fourth wave of covid in Canada. A quick look around the globe and you can see the delta variant is starting to take hold. Some example of how we know this is tending cases upwards:

Israel is back to mask policy indoors.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2021062 ... iant-rises

California has not mandated mask however is recommending masks due to delta.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/artic ... 280355.php

Ontario has hit targets for stage 3 of reopening however is not even fully in stage two yet. It looks like by the time we get to stage 3 (what was two dose summer all about, we don’t even know what this means) we will see seasonality kick in and almost certainly see the fourth wave. How dumb would it be to end restrictions right before flu season? At this point for Ontario it doesn’t even make sense to open things up because they got the timing all wrong!

I think it’s time we tell our government to F off… deaths and hospitalization are low, vaccines are high. It’s almost certain we will enter some level of lockdown and restrictions again this fall if we keep passively accepting that the government needs to control our lives and make this risk assessment for us. We have been taking these small changes weeks at a time and now everyone has had compliance beaten into them. Would not surprise me at all if we sit back and accept another winter of restrictions.

So how many more years/months can some of the airlines survive if travel is disrupted another season because a fourth wave? I feel duped by my government. I was told if I get vaccinated I would see thing get back to normal. We keep hitting targets and they backtrack on promises.

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

This thread is for discussion related to the impending fourth wave of covid in Canada. A quick look around the globe and you can see the delta variant is starting to take hold. Some example of how we know this is tending cases upwards:

Israel is back to mask policy indoors.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/2021062 ... iant-rises

California has not mandated mask however is recommending masks due to delta.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/local/artic ... 280355.php

Ontario has hit targets for stage 3 of reopening however is not even fully in stage two yet. It looks like by the time we get to stage 3 (what was two dose summer all about, we don’t even know what this means) we will see seasonality kick in and almost certainly see the fourth wave. How dumb would it be to end restrictions right before flu season? At this point for Ontario it doesn’t even make sense to open things up because they got the timing all wrong!

I think it’s time we tell our government to F off… deaths and hospitalization are low, vaccines are high. It’s almost certain we will enter some level of lockdown and restrictions again this fall if we keep passively accepting that the government needs to control our lives and make this risk assessment for us. We have been taking these small changes weeks at a time and now everyone has had compliance beaten into them. Would not surprise me at all if we sit back and accept another winter of restrictions.

So how many more years/months can some of the airlines survive if travel is disrupted another season because a fourth wave?

Israel didn't vaccinate children and then they went back to school.

They are at 60% of the total population with at least one dose and 57% fully vaccinated.

For comparison, Ontario is at 67% of all citizens with one dose and 32% fully vaccinated.

We are comparing apples to oranges... who knows, we might be following the same trend, or we might have curbed another big wave through a higher partial vaccination rate and continued restrictions.

[BigQ]

Pretty sure there are no vaccines that are approved for use in kids younger than 12 year olds. Besides, they have a statistical 0 death rate.

So, blaming that is a little disingenuous, no? Especially with all the reports of heart inflammation in young males...

[montado]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/delta-vari ... 1625045400

Australia entering lockdown because the delta variant. They were everyone’s favourite example of how to do things right! Now look at them . How is it that policy always seems to fail?

One things for sure. We have many religious thinkers here in Canada. Follow the experts blindly. Have faith! Why is it a year in not many experts can tell us how effective masks and lockdowns are? Because explaining this, is like explaining how Jesus walked on water, or how he fed all the hungry with a few bread crumbs. Covid policy is religion.

Keep people apart and be outside. That’s pretty much the number one way to stop the spread of infectious diseases. Yet somehow covid religion said big business stay open, small businesses close.. cram everyone into one store because this is better right? And we are still in lockdown in the summer when people should be outside!

Are you a religious thinker? Do you subscribe to the covid religion? This religion is about to wipe out more businesses… no one will care, because the religious thinkers will just think we need more government, and more policies to solve more problems.

[montado]

Many places are doubling covid cases over the course of a couple weeks. I would say fourth wave in underway. Bring back those restrictions!
Israel has had days with zero cases and they are back up to 400 a day. America was sub 15k a day back to 35k. Looks like winter is going to be just like the last.

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[TG]

It’s simply because we “physically” cannot vaccinate fast enought…

Now I’m going to seat back with my bag of popcorns reading the anti-Covid vax gang getting all frustrated by that.

[montado]

It’s simply because we “physically” cannot vaccinate fast enought…

Now I’m going to seat back with my bag of popcorns reading the anti-Covid vax gang getting all frustrated by that.

Interesting take.

I would say the reason covid is spreading and mutations are happening is because we chose to lockdown and slow the spread. Rather than let herd immunity do it’s thing now we delay the inevitable.

Our actions will have more consequences in the long term as collateral damage is my guess.

We could have protected the elderly, and had everyone else immune before the first vaccine went into an arm if we had covid parties instead of shutting down the economy. It’s not really a right or wrong answer, but damn this thing is going to drag our for a long time because of fear, hysteria and policy. Definitely cost some jobs, and set many people back a few years.

Remember the whole “Australia did a hard lockdown, and now they basically live like normal! Real lockdown works!”

Real lockdown works for what? Delaying the next lockdown to another time? The only thing that works is finding a away to live with covid. Unfortunately we know masks are shit. We can’t open everything and just wear masks. I would be happy to wear masks if they were effective and we could open everything as normal, but that’s obviously not the case. According to our politicians you can’t even open small businesses safely with masks, and it’s not safe to get a haircut with masks…

So yeah! This is all working eh! . Guess it depends how you define “works”

[TG]

Lockdowns and restrictions where put there to delay the inevitable, give Health care a break, give time for a vaccin to pop up, etc...

[altiplano]

Lockdowns and restrictions where put there to delay the inevitable, give Health care a break, give time for a vaccin to pop up, etc...

Right.

So why are we still facing lockdowns?

Health care is not in crisis, in fact they are dismantling units that were set up to handle the overflow and never saw a single patient.

We have vaccination numbers on the rise and we ought to have the knowledge at this point on his to protect vulnerable individuals.

Time to let it go... the reason for lockdown... recall those first 3 weeks in March 2020 , it as to flatten the curve, and then on it went with no end and moving goalposts. No more, time to move on.

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

This thread is full of idiots who claim that the vaccine is ineffective and that locking down until we vaccinate the vast majority of Canadians is stupid.

Well, here's the proof that you're stupid.

https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/me ... .pdf?la=en

Partially vaccinated and breakthrough cases comprise a very small proportion of the total
number of COVID-19 cases reported since December 14, 2020 and up to June 26, 2021 (Table 2).
Of the 400,413 COVID-19 cases reported in this time period, 3.9% were partially vaccinated and
0.4% were breakthrough cases.

Breakthrough cases are positive COVID test results two weeks or more after the second COVID-19 vaccine.

There is a very clear correlation between the vaccine and the number of positive symptomatic COVID-19 cases.


And as a bigger @#$! you to those who still deny the effectiveness of the vaccine, the blue is cases in partially and fully vaccinated individuals whereas the orange is unvaccinated.

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

Right.

So why are we still facing lockdowns?

Health care is not in crisis, in fact they are dismantling units that were set up to handle the overflow and never saw a single patient.

We have vaccination numbers on the rise and we ought to have the knowledge at this point on his to protect vulnerable individuals.

Time to let it go... the reason for lockdown... recall those first 3 weeks in March 2020 , it as to flatten the curve, and then on it went with no end and moving goalposts. No more, time to move on.

Because our provincial (Ontario) government is reactive and unable to foresee public opinion before they announce something, and our federal government is pushing for an election while claiming that their actions are saving us all.

I am pro-vaccine and pro-lockdown, but at this point, we need to open up with targeted restrictions (eg. capacity limits where spacing is unreasonable).

[altiplano]

This thread is full of idiots who claim that the vaccine is ineffective and that locking down until we vaccinate the vast majority of Canadians is stupid.

Well, here's the proof that you're stupid.

https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/me ... .pdf?la=en

Partially vaccinated and breakthrough cases comprise a very small proportion of the total
number of COVID-19 cases reported since December 14, 2020 and up to June 26, 2021 (Table 2).
Of the 400,413 COVID-19 cases reported in this time period, 3.9% were partially vaccinated and
0.4% were breakthrough cases.

Breakthrough cases are positive COVID test results two weeks or more after the second COVID-19 vaccine.

There is a very clear correlation between the vaccine and the number of positive symptomatic COVID-19 cases.


And as a bigger @#$! you to those who still deny the effectiveness of the vaccine, the blue is cases in partially and fully vaccinated individuals whereas the orange is unvaccinated.

"idiots"

"you're stupid"

"big @#$! you"

Wow. You sure make a compelling argument.

[montado]

Notwhoyouthinkiam is right. Vaccines are very effective. Vaccines are now available to all who would have any risk higher than influenza. This tells me there is zero reason for any restrictions at this point. Back to normal we should go right? If the unvaccinated don’t want a vaccine, it’s on them. Let them do what they like. We can’t control other countries restrictions on unvaccinated, so that’s also on them if they want to travel outside the borders. What I disagree with is lockdown…. If vaccines are highly effective, why do we need any other measures like masks and lockdowns? Masks and lockdowns were because we didn’t have vaccines right? Now what the @#$! are we doing? Pfizer is talking about a third dose lol… what? Lockdown until we all get a third shot? @#$! sakes!

I have to ask why we are still under restrictions in Ontario that look just like last summer, when last summer we had zero vaccines. It’s hard to believe vaccines are effective if your PM says we can’t live like normal even when most of us have our vaccines.

Ontario is sitting on nearly 3 million vaccine doses, this will take two weeks to administer. At this point I think we will see open appointments as pretty much everyone has the shot if they want it. Letting covid spread a bit between the younger people would be a good thing to boost immunity no? A little natural immunity with some vaccines all has to help. Thoughts?

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

"idiots"

"you're stupid"

"big @#$! you"

Wow. You sure make a compelling argument.

Exactly. You have no argument against the facts, only my language.

[altiplano]

"idiots"

"you're stupid"

"big @#$! you"

Wow. You sure make a compelling argument.

Exactly. You have no argument against the facts, only my language.

Your delivery diminishes the conversation. It's always straight to "@#$! you, you're an idiot for looking at anything with a critical eye".... Can't we move past that?

I agree with your post that politics and public opinion seem to be driving the bus on policy, and I don't disagree that vaccines help the majority of people, on various levels.

I have questions regarding the numbers, which on the surface are good information, but I wish they went deeper.

Majority of cases are non vaccinated individuals, and during the time frame of that chart we went from basically zero vaccinations to where we are today. I would question how that relates as it is an incomplete picture.

I have also been very interested throughout the pandemic as to where the majority of cases have been. The current and media have not wanted to specify as to not stigmatize groups and that's fair. But I believe that cases are being driven by working class/service industry individuals, some/most of them in various ethnic groups, I would be interested how that group aligns with vaccination percentages, as I believe that reports are saying that many in that group are resistant to vaccination. Also, young people, I believe that cases among young people have grown during this time period and they also have low vaccination numbers.

So it comes back to correlation/causation, I'm not saying it isn't valid information, but I think there are other factors such as socio-economics, culture, lifestyle, and behaviour affecting the numbers than straight vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated.

I'd be interested to see more about that.

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

Your delivery diminishes the conversation. It's always straight to "@#$! you, you're an idiot for looking at anything with a critical eye".... Can't we move past that?

I agree with your post that politics and public opinion seem to be driving the bus on policy, and I don't disagree that vaccines help the majority of people, on various levels.

I have questions regarding the numbers, which on the surface are good information, but I wish they went deeper.

Majority of cases are non vaccinated individuals, and during the time frame of that chart we went from basically zero vaccinations to where we are today. I would question how that relates as it is an incomplete picture.

I have also been very interested throughout the pandemic as to where the majority of cases have been. The current and media have not wanted to specify as to not stigmatize groups and that's fair. But I believe that cases are being driven by working class/service industry individuals, some/most of them in various ethnic groups, I would be interested how that group aligns with vaccination percentages, as I believe that reports are saying that many in that group are resistant to vaccination. Also, young people, I believe that cases among young people have grown during this time period and they also have low vaccination numbers.

So it comes back to correlation/causation, I'm not saying it isn't valid information, but I think there are other factors such as socio-economics, culture, lifestyle, and behaviour affecting the numbers than straight vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated.

I'd be interested to see more about that.

I'm angry at the blatant stupidity from the group of people on this forum who also happen to believe that Trump is still president.

Yes, you are correct that socioeconomic status is likely a player in these numbers, but with a number in the high ninety percentile, we are looking at a strong correlation that appears to go beyond socioeconomic influence.

It's the same story in the US and many other places around the world too. The vaccine is effective as proven in trial and in practice. Hesitance to it is generally founded by a lack of understanding and a willful ignorance.

['97 Tercel]

It's funny how the cases dropped as we approached summer...

Whodathunkit



and I bet they go back up again in the fall whether you've had gene therapy or not.

[montado]

"I have also been very interested throughout the pandemic as to where the majority of cases have been. The current and media have not wanted to specify as to not stigmatize groups and that's fair."

The @#$!? That's not fair! Science and experts should have always been telling the truth. One fact is, at the beginning of the pandemic lots of the spread was from health care workers bringing it home. They would spread it to their families and friends. Close contact is how most of this happens.

What was the messaging during this time? Wear a mask, close small business, keep Walmart open!

Literally anti science shit was going on and still is. How is that fair? Not once did I ever hear a politician bring up health care workers working in covid units going home to family. You know what we did hear about, was PSWs. The media blew them up but not so much about how they spread covid but more about what they are paid. It all became political. They talked about how they are so poor they work two jobs and that was causing spread. Of course over time many hcw got covid, and herd immunity built up. Then vaccine came. We are probably at a point covid will linger like the flu. It will mutate and we will have covid seasons. Some worse than others.

Anyways back to my main point... The lies around covid policies, contact tracing, and not telling truths is not "fair". It's completely BS. The problem is if they told the truth why would anyone wear a mask at Walmart? Interesting the lack of information. We have thousands of experts and most of them play dumb and let the politics roll on.

[altiplano]

Your delivery diminishes the conversation. It's always straight to "@#$! you, you're an idiot for looking at anything with a critical eye".... Can't we move past that?

I agree with your post that politics and public opinion seem to be driving the bus on policy, and I don't disagree that vaccines help the majority of people, on various levels.

I have questions regarding the numbers, which on the surface are good information, but I wish they went deeper.

Majority of cases are non vaccinated individuals, and during the time frame of that chart we went from basically zero vaccinations to where we are today. I would question how that relates as it is an incomplete picture.

I have also been very interested throughout the pandemic as to where the majority of cases have been. The current and media have not wanted to specify as to not stigmatize groups and that's fair. But I believe that cases are being driven by working class/service industry individuals, some/most of them in various ethnic groups, I would be interested how that group aligns with vaccination percentages, as I believe that reports are saying that many in that group are resistant to vaccination. Also, young people, I believe that cases among young people have grown during this time period and they also have low vaccination numbers.

So it comes back to correlation/causation, I'm not saying it isn't valid information, but I think there are other factors such as socio-economics, culture, lifestyle, and behaviour affecting the numbers than straight vaccinated vs. non-vaccinated.

I'd be interested to see more about that.

I'm angry at the blatant stupidity from the group of people on this forum who also happen to believe that Trump is still president.

Yes, you are correct that socioeconomic status is likely a player in these numbers, but with a number in the high ninety percentile, we are looking at a strong correlation that appears to go beyond socioeconomic influence.

It's the same story in the US and many other places around the world too. The vaccine is effective as proven in trial and in practice. Hesitance to it is generally founded by a lack of understanding and a willful ignorance.

There you go again, anger and name calling at people trying to have a conversation and interested in it. And what does bringing Trump in have to do with it? That's just a red herring.

Anyway, we are also talking about a 90-odd percent number of a group that is 95% smaller than it was 6 months ago. Relatively small number at this point still.

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

No anger or name calling in my last comment.

You are trying to reject the fact that 95% of COVID cases in Ontario are coming from 50% of the population who overwhelmingly have one thing in common; being unvaccinated or partially vaccinated.

[altiplano]

"I have also been very interested throughout the pandemic as to where the majority of cases have been. The current and media have not wanted to specify as to not stigmatize groups and that's fair."

The @#$!? That's not fair!

Poor sentence structured tapping that out.

Your right it's bullshit. What I mean that I don't want to see people stigmatized... But I would like to properly see the information.

I remember earlier in the pandemic seeing maps of the GTA where the covid cases were and they were majority in immigrant and low income neighbourhoods... you don't see those maps anymore. You do hear of the outbreaks at public housing and such... but that doesn't play on the broader media stories.

[notwhoyouthinkIam]

"I have also been very interested throughout the pandemic as to where the majority of cases have been. The current and media have not wanted to specify as to not stigmatize groups and that's fair."

The @#$!? That's not fair!

Poor sentence structured tapping that out.

Your right it's bullshit. What I mean that I don't want to see people stigmatized... But I would like to properly see the information.

I remember earlier in the pandemic seeing maps of the GTA where the covid cases were and they were majority in immigrant and low income neighbourhoods... you don't see those maps anymore. You do hear of the outbreaks at public housing and such... but that doesn't play on the broader media stories.

You can view it if you want to.

https://www.toronto.ca/home/covid-19/co ... maps-data/

It was actually quite easy to find too... I googled "toronto covid map"

Try it here!

[altiplano]

No anger or name calling in my last comment.

You are trying to reject the fact that 95% of COVID cases in Ontario are coming from 50% of the population who overwhelmingly have one thing in common; being unvaccinated or partially vaccinated.

"blatant stupidity"
"Trump"

That's absolutely provoking people and bringing in irrelevant arguments meant to insult.

You aren't looking at whole numbers is what I'm saying.

95% is your number... that's of 95% fewer cases as it stands... looking again at your charts, I'm not sure that's what they are saying... In fact I see the number of breakthrough cases is staying fairly constant, while the relative proportion of breakthrough cases us rising in your figure 2b. It's difficult to tell the actual numbers on that chart, but it looks like breakthrough cases make up well over 5% of cases, maybe 30 or 40% of recent cases.

Screenshot_20210711-163254.png (59.44 KiB) Viewed 2151 times

[altiplano]

"I have also been very interested throughout the pandemic as to where the majority of cases have been. The current and media have not wanted to specify as to not stigmatize groups and that's fair."

The @#$!? That's not fair!

Poor sentence structured tapping that out.

Your right it's bullshit. What I mean that I don't want to see people stigmatized... But I would like to properly see the information.

I remember earlier in the pandemic seeing maps of the GTA where the covid cases were and they were majority in immigrant and low income neighbourhoods... you don't see those maps anymore. You do hear of the outbreaks at public housing and such... but that doesn't play on the broader media stories.

You can view it if you want to.

https://www.toronto.ca/home/covid-19/co ... maps-data/

It was actually quite easy to find too... I googled "toronto covid map"

Try it here!

OK, thanks... I saw a larger GTA map previously too, nonetheless we don't hear much break down of that data/demographic.

[montado]

Funny how we can be so brainwashed when an apparent pandemic is happening and people are dying we all start to think we better not tell anyone why and how this is happening because it might be racist, sexist, or stigmatize certain groups… so let’s just deny some facts, say wear a mask… and watch shit unfold! Because rather than save lives it’s more important to be politically correct

It started with “how dare we say healthcare workers can get covid and bring it home”… let’s say “small businesses are super spreading and need to close”

I remember back a year ago everyone was saying kids don’t spread covid at school. Which is not very logical at all. I mean we know school age kids are always full of germs and that’s where they usually catch colds and flu… I think what we meant was kids can be spreading covid but most of them don’t get symptoms worse than a cold, if even that.