This is laughable and shows that you know ZERO about Belarus, Belarusians, or Lukashenko. You really allow the media to shove anything down your gullet. Just an empty vessel ripe for filling. Here's something for you:
Lukashenko won with at least 84% of the nation's will. That was against the (long-ago expatriated government spook) challenger Tsikhanouskaya that showed up the week prior to election.
You only care about Belarus because of the stupid Protasevich propaganda. Oh yes, he's a "journalist" and an "activist." He was on a terrorist watch list in Belarus. He knowingly took a chance to overfly Belarusian airspace, and he was rightly brought in. Do you want terrorists overflying your airspace?
CpnCrunch wrote: ↑Thu Aug 12, 2021 7:29 pm
And posting antivax nonsense because you don't understand basic facts like how VAERS works
You're batting out of your league, as usual. "Antivax," another low-IQ feed that you get prepackaged from your smartphone. Which part of VAERS am I misunderstanding? The part about thousands of adverse reactions reported not only by regular citizens, but doctors and nurses...or the fact that 150,000 adverse reactions were recently wiped from the database?
A few pages back I posted some data from the Health Infobase comparing infection, hospitalization, and death numbers for vaccinated and unvaccinated in Canada. One major limitation of that data was that it was over a period of over 7 months where the vaccination rate changed drastically. To get a more recent snapshot here is data collected for just under a month from 10 July 2021 to 7 Aug 2021, as reported to PHAC. In that time frame the Delta variant dominated in Canada, rising from 80% to 92% of the sequenced samples during that period.
At the start of the period (10 July) 43.74% were fully vaccinated, 24.39% were partially vaccinated. At the end of the period (7 Aug) 61.88% were fully vaccinated, 9.56% were partially vaccinated. The curves are close to linear in that time span, so one can approximate with a mean for the period of 52.8% fully vaccinated and 17.0% partially vaccinated, leaving 30.2% not vaccinated.
A quick back of the napkin calculation reveals that the risk reduction during this short period for fully vaccinated people vs unvaccinated people against death is 70%, hospitalization 74%, and confirmed infection 62%. If you'd like to check the outcomes for partially vaccinated, feel free. Some limitations of these quick calculations:
- The "not yet protected" group was left out. This represents people who have received a vaccine less than two weeks before infection/hospitalization/death. A better methodology would be to split this group evenly between unvaccinated and partially vaccinated since I assume there would be an even distribution in the length of time from vaccination to outcome (i.e. some people it would be 1 day after, some 2 days after, some 13 days after...)
- Confirmed infections are based on non-mandatory testing, and so are probably missing quite a few cases. They may be missing an equal percentage in each group, or there may be a testing bias between the two groups.
- Small numbers of outcomes means there is a wide range in the confidence interval. I haven't bothered to calculate the confidence interval but I could see 70% easily swinging 60-80%.
Now on to less data and more conjecture of what is the end game. As people like altiplane and montando point out, we can't keep at it forever. Eradication seems very unlikely, so a wiser course to pursue is ending up with an endemic virus with most of the population having robust acquired immunity. Vaccination provides a decent level of immunity for a majority of the population, and natural infection provides even more immunity (as current studies are showing) for those who survive, though at a much higher risk for most. The most robust immunity seems to come from a combination of vaccination and infection as per a recent pre-print from Israel, so the fact that breakthrough infections are occurring with a very reduced chance of death and other severe outcomes may actually help us reach the endemic state faster. Children are at a low risk for severe outcomes, so I don't think vaccination should be prioritized for them unless they have health conditions that put them at higher risk. Eventually, with most people acquiring immunity, SARS-CoV-2 could become more like OC43, 229E, NL63 and HKU1 (the other common endemic coronaviruses) and less like SARS-CoV-1 or MERS (more deadly coronaviruses which don't spread as fast).
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