Pilot Shortage

[Clearprop913]

I am very curious to hear everyone's different thoughts on how fast the Pilot shortage will become an issue again. After coming up on over 18mths of a pilot surplus.

How long roughly until the famine becomes a feast again?

Do you think it will become such an issue smaller operators are forced to close doors?

[Bug_Stomper_01]

I don’t think it’ll ever come back to pre COVID19 levels due to this global lifestyle rift. Business aviation is lagging way behind it’s predicted recovery by date, the remote workforce has been able to work remotely for decades now. This pandemic forced companies hands and people don’t want to go back to offices, and employers are enjoying profit while not paying as much lease rates. Travel will always be in demand but I think that yesterday’s demand is over.

[montado]

No pilot shortage.

NEW normal. Stop climate change. Ban airlines.

We as individuals aren't capable of making health choices. Just like we need government to save us with mask and vaccine policy we also need our government to step up and ban flying for leasure purposes.

Let's hope Trudeau is elected to stop climate change.

[GoHomeLeg]

Anyone with seniority will not budge for a while. This situation proves how valuable seniority it when it comes to getting back to work quicker. Sometimes slow a steady wins the race.

There will definitely be a more intense shortage.

[scdriver]

No pilot shortage.

NEW normal. Stop climate change. Ban airlines.

We as individuals aren't capable of making health choices. Just like we need government to save us with mask and vaccine policy we also need our government to step up and ban flying for leasure purposes.

Let's hope Trudeau is elected to stop climate change.

Come on man this is such an irrelevant reply to the question. I personally think it'll be 2023 when hiring really ramps up again. There will certainly be an increased need for pilots in the coming year for certain operations (float industry, probably regionals), but I'd bet hiring at AC, WJ, etc will not occur until 2023. It will be interesting for sure to see how travel demand will change, but I do believe it will come back just as strong. A lot of people are gonna want to make up for the travel they lost out on. Someone else did mention the demise of business travel, that is almost certainly correct but I do think the leisure travel side of the business will make up for the difference. I'll be interested to hear a ballpark figure of how many pilots decided to leave the industry because of covid and whether it will have any effect. There will never be a true "pilot shortage" as flight schools are as busy as ever pumping out 200hr wonders (I'm personally staggered by how many people want to get a cpl right now. Most probably don't even know what hiring is like...), but I can certainly see there being a fairly quick shortage of pilots with actual experience.

[C-GGGQ]

Except business jet flying is skyrocketing. They just aren’t flying airlines. 704 operators turning down charters they’re so busy. Don’t listen to the doomsday predictions on this site. It’s already rebounding 2022 is going to be busy

[schnitzel2k3]

Except business jet flying is skyrocketing. They just aren’t flying airlines. 704 operators turning down charters they’re so busy. Don’t listen to the doomsday predictions on this site. It’s already rebounding 2022 is going to be busy

I'd have to agree, our rates are up 30% on pre COVID pricing and we're unable to fill the demand...

[Clearprop913]

Except business jet flying is skyrocketing. They just aren’t flying airlines. 704 operators turning down charters they’re so busy. Don’t listen to the doomsday predictions on this site. It’s already rebounding 2022 is going to be busy

Appreciate the insight. Looking forward to the busyness.

[qwe221sd]

no pilot shortage never.

[Big Pistons Forever]

There was a significant pilot shortage at every level just before the COVID crash. Since then there has been a wave of pilots that took the early retirement packages and new younger pilots that have started a new career and are not going to come back. Plus the new flight and duty time regulations mean that running the same schedule as 2019 means between 10 and 15 % more pilots.

Bottom line it doesn’t have to get to 2019 levels before there will have to be hiring. Personally I don’t believe that air travel won’t come back. After every previous downturns the industry always came back bigger than before. I just don’t see it different this time, the only question is how fast the industry recovers. I think it will be faster than most are predicting as there is huge pent up demand.

[Prodriver]

No pilot shortage.

NEW normal. Stop climate change. Ban airlines.

We as individuals aren't capable of making health choices. Just like we need government to save us with mask and vaccine policy we also need our government to step up and ban flying for leasure purposes.

Let's hope Trudeau is elected to stop climate change.

That is the dumbest thing I have ever read for someone that is trying to make his living within Aviation at any level. It takes free enterprise and investment to put planes in the air, there is no climate change, just a normal cycle since the end of the last ice age. The planet is dynamic.

Job one for everybody with a brain is to get Trudeau and Freeland out of the PMO's office. She is against Capitalism and business use of Aircraft and is horribly unqualified to be in her current rolls. Bill Blair needs to go as well, looks like there is more than I can list? Please help kick these clowns to the curb. Canada is going to need a Lawyer to clean up this mess and Erin just happens to be one!

[montado]

No pilot shortage.

NEW normal. Stop climate change. Ban airlines.

We as individuals aren't capable of making health choices. Just like we need government to save us with mask and vaccine policy we also need our government to step up and ban flying for leasure purposes.

Let's hope Trudeau is elected to stop climate change.

That is the dumbest thing I have ever read for someone that is trying to make his living within Aviation at any level. It takes free enterprise and investment to put planes in the air, there is no climate change, just a normal cycle since the end of the last ice age. The planet is dynamic.

Job one for everybody with a brain is to get Trudeau and Freeland out of the PMO's office. She is against Capitalism and business use of Aircraft and is horribly unqualified to be in her current rolls. Bill Blair needs to go as well, looks like there is more than I can list? Please help kick these clowns to the curb. Canada is going to need a Lawyer to clean up this mess and Erin just happens to be one!

Its called sarcasm. You know, when people are radical and say thing "individuals are to dumb to decide if they need a vaccine and we need big government to decide our medical choices for us". I am mocking them with the consistency that it sounds the same as saying we need government to save us from climate change, because we are to dumb to make this choice.

And guess what, the consensus from the general public will probably agree with that last statement I wrote. Don't be surprised if this comes down in the next few years. We already understand how people think about these types of issues, You may disagree with it, but when it boils down the gov will have no problem taking your job, and 75% of the people will be in agreement with that. Democracy!

[hotdog1]

Disclaimer-I don’t care about your personal views on the ‘vaccine’ or domestic vaccine passports.

The question is-with people/pilots still standing on principle and not taking the vaccine, and now transport Canada rumor mill says operators will have to show proof of a pilots vaccination to fly.

Is there or will there be enough pilots refusing to get vaccinated to cause a shortage of pilots(experienced, not brand new out of school pilots)?

[digits_]

Is there or will there be enough pilots refusing to get vaccinated to cause a shortage of pilots(experienced, not brand new out of school pilots)?

People who leave because of that, are probably people who already have one foot out of the door. Retirement, interested in other jobs. This would merely be a trigger, they would likely already have left in the next couple of years. I doubt it would make a significant effect.



Regarding the pilot shortage as a whole: just look at the job ads being posted here. It went up from zero to 4 if I recall correctly, in the past month. Things are happening. Porter is flying again, Westjet friends are being retrained. It's recovering. It will all depend on the government restrictions, and that's hard to predict.

[rookiepilot]

I’m not in the industry, but I agree. 2022 = Boom.

Get ready for epic gas prices though, too.

[complexintentions]

I’m not in the industry, but I agree. 2022 = Boom.

Get ready for epic gas prices though, too.

Yep.

Restrict production and transportation of fossil fuels when there's no viable replacement for them, then increase demand exponentially.

Don't exactly have to have a doctorate in Economics to know what happens to the price of any commodity in this scenario.

"Boom" is right. Shame Trudeau has crippled Canada's ability to capitalize on it but other less-enlightened locales sure will.

And yeah, there's going to be a pilot shortage. Not of 200-hr wonders, but massive shortage of experience. The industry is never in labour equilibrium and the pendulum has swung way too far one way. Only question is the timing but I concur on 2022 and the world will look very, very different a year from now.

[‘Bob’]

Oh god. You’d think that we lived in a centrally planned economy where the PM can turn on and off the flow of fuel at a whim. Hahaha!!

Pipelines take oil outside of our country. Ever try and buy an orange in Florida or coffee in Costa Rica? You pay a ton or you get crap. Cause it’s all for export to places where they are willing to pay more.

Our dear oil and gas companies throttle the supply at the refineries. Only so much capacity. To build more would cost more and drive prices down.

But they can only go up so much before people choose other ways. Maybe that’s why they aren’t really any higher than they were in 2008. Most people drive less than 200km a day. Electric cars are perfect for a secondary vehicle and then maybe a primary one as performance gets better and prices go down. The biggest hit will be truck and SUV sales. 2008 and 1979 all over again for car manufacturers who don’t value fuel efficiency or electric.

A lot of technologies have been victims of global events. Passenger shipping and rail never fully recovered after WWII in response to rapid advances in air travel. The pandemic showed that businesses could survive without business travel, and to many people that world travel is expensive, risky, mundane, no longer exclusive, and generally not worth the hassle.

If gas prices are going up, airlines will have to cut costs other ways or like always they will be the very first thing to be cut from personal and corporate expenses.

And if resources are being actively attacked by our government in this country, they sure aren’t doing a good job of it because charters are beyond capacity for doing crew moves for mines, pipeline, and oil and gas in Canada right now. What used to be a few 1900s and Jetstreams are now 737s and A320s going in and out of northern resource hubs.

[EPR]

If only we had pipelines that could supply Ontario, Quebec and the rest of the Eastern Provinces with oil, so they wouldn't have to spend billions for oil from the Middle East and other Countries that don't have our environmental standards. Imagine the modern Hospitals we could build or the medical equipment we could afford, new schools, better roads...Gee...what a concept!

[‘Bob’]

More communist style central planning I see. Is that what the People’s Republican Party wants? It’s so insidious how the far right by their actions actually imitates the far left.

You act as if it’s taxpayers money buying foreign oil when it’s nothing of the sort. Wanting a government to force a private company like Irving Oil to buy a poorer quality Canadian product that is far more environmentally unfriendly to extract (you can literally see the tar sands from the surface of the moon) and refine (takes a barrel to move a barrel, and another barrel to refine it) and would be far more expensive in a protected economy, probably leading to more people just going electric.

And after all of the subsidies to Canadian oil companies and tax cuts and low royalties and cleanup for orphan wells and a perennially unemployed workforce with a domino effect into a service sector entirely dependent on it, how much is left over for schools and hospitals and roads?

Meanwhile, here’s one of the few examples of a Canadian company buying a raw product from overseas and turning it into a value-added product. It creates a positive balance of trade as a lot of that product is exported, permanent employment, and lots of tax remittances from dividends and income taxes, as well as the excise and carbon taxes payed by the end users in Canada.

[EPR]

More communist style central planning I see. Is that what the People’s Republican Party wants? It’s so insidious how the far right by their actions actually imitates the far left.

You act as if it’s taxpayers money buying foreign oil when it’s nothing of the sort. Wanting a government to force a private company like Irving Oil to buy a poorer quality Canadian product that is far more environmentally unfriendly to extract (you can literally see the tar sands from the surface of the moon) and refine (takes a barrel to move a barrel, and another barrel to refine it) and would be far more expensive in a protected economy, probably leading to more people just going electric.

And after all of the subsidies to Canadian oil companies and tax cuts and low royalties and cleanup for orphan wells and a perennially unemployed workforce with a domino effect into a service sector entirely dependent on it, how much is left over for schools and hospitals and roads?

Meanwhile, here’s one of the few examples of a Canadian company buying a raw product from overseas and turning it into a value-added product. It creates a positive balance of trade as a lot of that product is exported, permanent employment, and lots of tax remittances from dividends and income taxes, as well as the excise and carbon taxes payed by the end users in Canada.

Is this Buffalo Bob, as in the former leader of the Ontario NDP, who crossed the floor to join the Libtards? You sound an awful lot like him! Buffalo Bob was a bicycle riding, tree hugging, Birkenstock wearing, latte drinking, granola crunching, Aloe Vera rubbing, Tofu eating, smart car driving loser!

[lownslow]

2022 = Boom.

I had thought so too though now I’m concerned for some sort of major economic crash. I thought it odd that an election would be called this past summer amidst talk of a coming ‘fourth wave’ of the pandemic and figured the Libs knew things were about to get worse and they would get blamed for it. Try and grab that majority while you still can, you know? I think it was a misstep and the poll said seem to show the same but something still scared them into risking it. Looking at inflation lately, it appears to be rising the way it has before every other major economic downturn. That doesn’t bode well for our short term flying future but I hope I’m wrong. I’m not a finance guy.

[Launchpad1]

It'll all be back big time in early 2022. Covid is over. Everyone is being rehired right now. Airlines will be recruiting again in early 2022.

[imjustlurking]

2022 = Boom.

I had thought so too though now I’m concerned for some sort of major economic crash. I thought it odd that an election would be called this past summer amidst talk of a coming ‘fourth wave’ of the pandemic and figured the Libs knew things were about to get worse and they would get blamed for it. Try and grab that majority while you still can, you know? I think it was a misstep and the poll said seem to show the same but something still scared them into risking it. Looking at inflation lately, it appears to be rising the way it has before every other major economic downturn. That doesn’t bode well for our short term flying future but I hope I’m wrong. I’m not a finance guy.

It sure is possible, but looking at some markets, it looks like the numbers are the highest they've ever been.









Obviously a global downturn today, but markets go up and down all of the time.

[Raincoast]

More communist style central planning I see. Is that what the People’s Republican Party wants? It’s so insidious how the far right by their actions actually imitates the far left.

You act as if it’s taxpayers money buying foreign oil when it’s nothing of the sort. Wanting a government to force a private company like Irving Oil to buy a poorer quality Canadian product that is far more environmentally unfriendly to extract (you can literally see the tar sands from the surface of the moon) and refine (takes a barrel to move a barrel, and another barrel to refine it) and would be far more expensive in a protected economy, probably leading to more people just going electric.

And after all of the subsidies to Canadian oil companies and tax cuts and low royalties and cleanup for orphan wells and a perennially unemployed workforce with a domino effect into a service sector entirely dependent on it, how much is left over for schools and hospitals and roads?

Meanwhile, here’s one of the few examples of a Canadian company buying a raw product from overseas and turning it into a value-added product. It creates a positive balance of trade as a lot of that product is exported, permanent employment, and lots of tax remittances from dividends and income taxes, as well as the excise and carbon taxes payed by the end users in Canada.

Is this Buffalo Bob, as in the former leader of the Ontario NDP, who crossed the floor to join the Libtards? You sound an awful lot like him! Buffalo Bob was a bicycle riding, tree hugging, Birkenstock wearing, latte drinking, granola crunching, Aloe Vera rubbing, Tofu eating, smart car driving loser!

Hmmm...A well thought out answer or an insulting rant? I know who I'm going to believe...

[EPR]

Thanks to Raincoast and Bob...and other Peoplekind, $600 million has been spent on a cabnet shuffle!