Lessons from the past with downturns

[Malfunction]

Looking for some insight. What does AC ussually do during reccesions. Do they always lay off?. Asking because of today's market and where it could be headed.

[Fanblade]

Looking for some insight. What does AC ussually do during reccesions. Do they always lay off?. Asking because of today's market and where it could be headed.

Pilots?


Usually no. Reduced hours is usually first and usually enough. A situation like Covid produced reduced hours and layoffs.

I suspect AC is currently short staffed enough that a recession wouldn’t impact much.

[Transition9er2]

I am also very interested to hear the answer to this question.

Sounds like hiring is really starting to kick off after a 2+ year break which is awesome. However, what are the chances the company goes right back to layoffs in 2-3 years if things really start to fall apart in the global economy?

Thanks,

T.

[Fanblade]

Starting a new job is always at risk of a recession. That won't change today tomorrow or next year.

Covid, 911, SARs. They all show that even when you think things are going well it can change in an instant.

Think about it. Make a decision. Don't look back. In that order .

[Ratherbe]

I appreciate the concern about layoffs and it’s hard to quantify the value over time of an AC seniority number.

To answer your question, although work-sharing has been common at AC, layoffs happen anyway. About every 10 years: ‘81 (I think), ‘93, ‘03, almost in ‘12. COVID layoffs were a black swan event.

[fish4life]

I am also very interested to hear the answer to this question.

Sounds like hiring is really starting to kick off after a 2+ year break which is awesome. However, what are the chances the company goes right back to layoffs in 2-3 years if things really start to fall apart in the global economy?

Thanks,

T.

The problem with a big down turn in 2-3 years is AC will still have Covid debt to pay that soon and the balance sheet isn’t what it was going into Covid.

[lownslow]

The thing is do you want the job or not? Now may not look like a great time but next year you’ll be a year older and a year closer to retiring. Same the year after that, and so on. Every subsequent year it becomes dumber and dumber to pursue that job.

The least dumb time is today. Apply anyways and figure best case scenario you have until the job offer expires to decide not to do it, worst case you’re no further behind.

[Eric Janson]

Looking for some insight. What does AC usually do during recessions. Do they always lay off?. Asking because of today's market and where it could be headed.

Disclaimer:- Don't work for Air Canada.

Making predictions in Aviation is impossible - even the so called 'experts' can't do it.

Don't spend your time worrying about things that are beyond your control - nothing you can do will affect the outcome. JMHO.

I've always had a job to go to when I needed one.

Not only was I one of the people who kept their job and salary during COVID - I also ended up with a temporary 20% salary increase.

[flying4dollars]

This was a concern for me too when I decided on whether to apply or not. Some major global event always seems to happen every 8-10 years or so. It's cyclical. We are coming out of one of the worst in recent history. Now is in fact a GREAT time to get in. By the time the next one hits, IF there are layoffs, I'll have the seniority to keep me safe. Even if I was laid off, I know it'll be a matter WHEN I get called back, not IF. To me, that was a powerful factor in deciding. I gave up high seniority and a left seat salary at my last job to come here. I'm excited, I'm not looking back and I don't have any second thoughts, doubts or regrets.

I don't think any airline WANTS to lay its pilots off. Training is costly. I'd imagine laying you off may save money in the meantime, but having to train/re-train later almost all but eliminates the savings on paying those wages.

[schnitzel2k3]

Not to mention, some pilots are lagged in their return if they accept an interim job that bonds them.

Or they leave the industry entirely for safer havens.