Something New

[TrilliumFlt]

Any thoughts from the community on a fleet upgrade program at Jazz, will we see something new or just another variant of the ERJ.

[Inverted2]

Yeah we are getting those electric planes. They will be perfect for the YYZ hub and spoke to YHM, YKF, YTZ, YOO and YQA.

[TrilliumFlt]

Yeah we are getting those electric planes. They will be perfect for the YYZ hub and spoke to YHM, YKF, YTZ, YOO and YQA.

Wait for the RC version and hire some modelling enthusiasts from the local clubs to "operate" them.

[rudder]

Any thoughts from the community on a fleet upgrade program at Jazz, will we see something new or just another variant of the ERJ.

Assuming status quo CPA deal with AC after 2025, range of possibilities are:

1. Minimum 80 76 seat jets, or
2. Minimum 80 78 seat Q400, or
3. Minimum 80 - combination of 76 seat jets and 78 seat Q400’s

It is likely that Jazz will be out of the 50 seat business after 2025. It is also likely that AC will be planning close to the ‘minimum’ fleet obligation for Jazz under the AC/CHR CPA and using other regional vendors under the terms of the ACPA scope provisions.

There is only one 76 seat jet currently in production - E175. Lead time for a factory order is up to 3 years. However, there are used aircraft available on the secondary market.

By 2025, the CRJ900 fleet will be between 5-20 years old. The E175 fleet will be 20 years old. Total of 45 jet aircraft in the Express fleet will be 20 years old (CRJ200’s excluded).

It would be incomprehensible to see where 80 Q400’s could be deployed (that would be 44 more Q400’s than the 2023 Express fleet). So one can presume that the post 2025 fleet will be a Q400/76 seat jet mix and that there will be some form of fleet renewal at Jazz for the aging regional jets.

My guess is either a factory E175 order (30 firm/15 options) with post 2025 deliveries, or used E175 from the secondary market, or a combination of the two. CHR will want to be the lessor for new aircraft so that may be a conversation with AC. CHR also has a massive portfolio in its leasing division. There could be allocations of used E175 from that source as well.

Nothing will transpire on Express fleet renewal until the parties are in agreement about status quo for the CPA.

[TrilliumFlt]

How about reconfiguring an existing mainline 319 Baby Bus within the scope clauses and transfer them to Jazz. Enlarge J class, reduce and increase the seat pitch Y class for comply with the 76-seating limit, or maybe a dispensation to 78 seats like the DH8/400.

[rudder]

How about reconfiguring an existing mainline Baby Bus within the scope clauses and transfer them to Jazz. Enlarge J class, reduce and increase the seat pitch Y class for comply with the 76-seating limit, or maybe a dispensation to 78 seats like the DH8/400.

Nope. ACPA scope for Express is max configuration 76 seats jet AND hull size certification not greater than 90 seats.

No longer able to simply re-certify a hull to lower capacity and operate at Express.

Reality is that AC is no longer looking at moving flying to Express as a positive. It is trying to see how to do as much flying as possible using mainline fins, including Rouge, including NB fleet expansion, and then Express role is simply backfill where mainline gauge is too large or not enough mainline resources available.

[TrilliumFlt]

I've read that a ERJ 175 E2 is unlikely to reach production given the limits imposed by the US scoping clauses and insufficient interest or market in any other country.

[rudder]

I've read that a ERJ 175 E2 is unlikely to reach production given the limits imposed by the US scoping clauses and insufficient interest or market in any other country.

The good news is that the E2-175 is scope compliant at AC. The bad news is that it likely will never see production due non-scope compliance USA (MGTOW 98000lbs exceeds typical US legacy 86000lbs scope limitation). And as far as non-US markets are concerned, no scope limits on seats so more interested in E2-195.

According to AC 2022 Q3 MD&A, projected Express fleet 2023 is 111. It is possible that the expiring leases on the 5 Skywest CRJ900 will not be renewed so 2024 could see a further Express fleet reduction to 106. Min fleet guarantee is 105 until Dec 31, 2025.

Very likely that the 15 CRJ200’s currently in service at Jazz will not be included in the Jazz fleet after 2025. Also possible that AC could ‘early out’ these airframes without replacement with CHR consent if pilot staffing remains an ongoing problem at Jazz. Regardless of pre or post 2025, that takes Express fleet to 91. If the 10 third party E175 leases are not renewed after 2025, that would take Express to 81 fins, just 1 above the min guarantee of 80.

Getting smaller is a reality for Jazz. It may happen sooner, but most definitely will happen later.

[TrilliumFlt]

All agreed Rudder and then Jazz will be operating some of the oldest equipment in the North America skies. I sure hope they start warehousing parts and paying the maintainer's a whole lot more.

[rudder]

All agreed Rudder and then Jazz will be operating some of the oldest equipment in the North America skies. I sure hope they start warehousing parts and paying the maintainer's a whole lot more.

What is eventually announced re: Jazz fleet renewal (if anything is announced at all) will say a lot about the future at Jazz.

Jazz kept some D8’s in service for 30 years. Who knows, perhaps that is the plan.

The CPA is in effect for another 13 years….. supposedly.

[canadian_aviator_4]

All agreed Rudder and then Jazz will be operating some of the oldest equipment in the North America skies. I sure hope they start warehousing parts and paying the maintainer's a whole lot more.

I think paying more and new aircraft are what Jazz wants to avoid most. Keep pay as low as possible for as long as possible, and hold off on expenses with new aircraft until the last possible moment.

[rudder]

All agreed Rudder and then Jazz will be operating some of the oldest equipment in the North America skies. I sure hope they start warehousing parts and paying the maintainer's a whole lot more.

I think paying more and new aircraft are what Jazz wants to avoid most. Keep pay as low as possible for as long as possible, and hold off on expenses with new aircraft until the last possible moment.

Fleet renewal for the AC CPA is (effectively) an AC expense. CHR can mitigate the balance sheet impact for AC by being the purchaser and then lease to AC. Otherwise, AC provides the aircraft or any associated CHR lease expense is a pass through cost.

This decision is 100% AC.