Curious on the Light Aircraft Market.

[rookiepilot]

Read this from a big shot in the car business apparently: (used car prices are crashing)

CarDealershipGuy @GuyDealership

Best used car bargains right now:
1-2 year old used luxury cars and SUVs.
And it will likely keep getting better.


Planes too? Any info?

[photofly]

Are you in the market?

My prediction is there will be no decrease in airplane prices, and no bargains. Pilots are waaay more attached to their planes than their cars, and there are way way more people looking for "cheap" airplanes than there are looking for cheap luxury road vehicles.

[fish4life]

Depends how many planes were financed by heloc’s. I’d imagine that a decent percentage of the last 2 year rush of buyers did and they will be listing for sale.
The interesting/ shocking part to them will be that plane values have always gone in cycles and they bought at the top and their plane is worth 25% less.

[digits_]

It's been a while since I have seen the utterly stupidly high asking prices (eg 200k for an old 172). Looks like the market is stabilizing a bit, perhaps slightly going down. It's still well above the pre covid levels though.

I would expect prices to go down again. Some pilots would do anything not to sell their plane, but I think a lot of the ones that bought overpriced junk will likely get fed up with the inevitable high maintenance bills.

[Cliff Jumper]

there are way way more people looking for "cheap" airplanes than there are looking for cheap luxury road vehicles.

Really? I would have thought the extreme opposite. Like 500 potential cheap aircraft customers versus 500,000 potential luxury car customers.

[SeptRepair]

I do some general aviation maintenance as my side gig and watch the market all the time looking for a "deal". The market has seemed to level off with some small decreases. Still overly inflated for how much I'm willing to pay though. There doesn't seem to be any shortage of people wanting maintenance, thus to me, means they are flying just as often. I'm waiting with cash in hand for that sweet deal.

[photofly]

there are way way more people looking for "cheap" airplanes than there are looking for cheap luxury road vehicles.

Really? I would have thought the extreme opposite. Like 500 potential cheap aircraft customers versus 500,000 potential luxury car customers.

Yes, I didn’t express myself very clearly. Relative to the “normal” number of people looking for a “deal” on a luxury car, which I would expect to be high but now low (hence all the deals) my impression is that airplane buyers are still thinking longer term and that no fewer people are still waiting for that cheaper airplane, hence a more solid market.

I believe buyers of luxury cars would have an ownership timeframe of maybe two to three years before turning it over, but airplane ownership tends towards much longer time frames. Most people I know who have a plane have it for 10 or 20 years.

Picking up a “cheap” 172 is just as attractive now as it was three years ago, which is why I don’t think you’ll see any bargains hanging around.

[rookiepilot]

Same guy today:


CarDealershipGuy
@GuyDealership
People asked for specifics:

- Mercedes
- BMW
- Audi
- Lexus
- Cadillac

These Makes are getting wrecked in the Wholesale markets.

(With minor exceptions for certain rare Models)
9:33 PM · Nov 10, 2022
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[goldeneagle]

But there is one big difference between the markets rookie. Those car manufacturers are pushing out new vehicles by the hundreds of thousands. There are not a lot of new Cessna 172 in the market today, no new Cessna 180/185 etc.

The market for cars has plenty of supply with dwindling demand. The market for light airplanes has limited supply which decreases every time you read about another one getting wrecked. It's a completely different market dynamic.

[Big Pistons Forever]

I think the that prices have not moved much but the volume of sales is down significantly. Prices are not dropping but airplanes are not selling. This will eventually force prices down. High interest rates and a probable recession are not good for airplane sales.

I think a year from now there will be some true bargains, but right now nobody seems desperate to sell. I bought my first airplane in the middle of the early 1990's downturn. I offered 50% of what the seller had listed as his price which was the equivalent for the time, of the $150,000 1969 Cessna 172 you are seeing today . He blew me off initially but 2 months later he capitulated and accepted my offer, the only one he had received

[photofly]

I think a year from now there will be some true bargains,

I really hope you’re correct, but I think there are a lot of people (thinking long term) who would snap up the right bargain airplane -including me. What that tells me is that there won’t be any real bargains.

[Big Pistons Forever]

I think a year from now there will be some true bargains,

I really hope you’re correct, but I think there are a lot of people (thinking long term) who would snap up the right bargain airplane -including me. What that tells me is that there won’t be any real bargains.

The X factor is the absolute number of airplanes available. The peak GA production years were the 1970's so most of the airplanes for sale are now 40 + years old. Probably the majority of these airplanes are now either wrecked or so neglected they are beyond economic repair, especially due to airframe corrosion. It may turn out that you are right, there simply will be such a small number remaining of decent airplanes that demand will always exceed supply. This would be especially true for airplanes in demand by flight training units like the Cessna 172.

Practical travelling airplanes like the C 182 and Arrow are probably also going to stay pricy. On the other hand piston twin prices have been low for years and will never recover. Odd ball airplanes like Bellanca Vikings also never had much price inflation.

[JasonE]

Give it a bit, I think prices will come down. We've seen such a high increase in value over the past few years, I believe they are overpriced in the current market. Once reality sets in and people have to keep paying $200 to fill their SUV and $8 for a lb of butter things will change. Look at housing market, it tanked pretty quickly. You have to eat and get to work before you fly your plane.

edit: I just checked my local housing market. New builds dropped 200K in price since interest started to move.

[2112]

Been looking for a light single for a while now and I just cannot justify the price point most people are asking for absolute crap (Time-x engines,fabric jobs,avionics from WW2) Personally I'm putting off buying for another year or two.