To start now, or wait a couple years?

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nutlord
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To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by nutlord »

Please advise if this belongs in flight training, though I think it may be better placed in this subforum.

I'm 28 years old, and am currently in the military. I am currently eligible for a $45k education benefit from my service and am 1.5 years away from "unlocking" the next $45k. I intend to quit the military to pursue a career as a professional pilot. Would you suggest quitting now to get started ASAP, or sticking it out another 1.5 years to be able to access 90k for education to cover most of if not all of my flight training?

Other points:
- I am assuming approx 100k to do my flight training (building in some slush room)
- Becoming an RCAF pilot is not an option, I don't want to wait 6 years to be qualified, and the posting tempo won't work for my family.
- I would have enough money to pay for my flight training in cash right now, though would have to sell some investments to make it work.
- My wife is a professional who has some geographic restrictions on her ability to work, and her career takes priority over mine (hence why I'm making the jump from the military)

I'm essentially looking for a cost comparison from experienced professional pilots on whether delaying my aviation career by 1.5 years (starting training at 30 years old) is worth it for approx 150k in earnings/education benefits over the next 1.5 years.

Thanks.
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Scuderia
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by Scuderia »

You know your financial situation better than I do, but personally I'd lean towards sticking it out.

In the meantime, however, hit the books best you can so you can hit the ground running when you can commit yourself full time.
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fish4life
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by fish4life »

Why not stick it out and start doing your licenses on the side. At least get a private license and some ratings over the next 1.5 years
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digits_
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by digits_ »

fish4life wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 9:00 pm Why not stick it out and start doing your licenses on the side. At least get a private license and some ratings over the next 1.5 years
This!

You could do a lot with 45k. Save the expensive multi stuff for the end.

You could likely have all your licenses in 2 years. Part time for 1.5 years and half a year full time if so desired.

"Full time flight training" doesn't really exist anyway. If you want your licenses only (no aviation degree etc), you'll likely only fly 2 times a week anyway.
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cdnavater
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by cdnavater »

28, 30, no difference really.
I would take advantage of the education fund, your savings will come in handy and the less debt you get into this business with the better off you’ll be.
You might not get a job flying in your wife’s geographical restricted area so I’d work on how you’re going to be apart most of the month, if she is not an independent person, someone who can’t call a plumber without talking to you first, this will be a problem.
My two cents
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ant_321
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by ant_321 »

I would start now part time (assuming you have access to the first 45k while still in the military). Get your ppl, night rating and do some time building and in 1.5 years take the other 45k and finish up the rest of your training in a few months.
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photofly
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by photofly »

ant_321 wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 5:52 am I would start now part time (assuming you have access to the first 45k while still in the military). Get your ppl, night rating and do some time building and in 1.5 years take the other 45k and finish up the rest of your training in a few months.
It sounds like 45k now (by leaving the military entirely right now) OR 90k by doing the same later; not 45k now AND another 45k later.

However the sentiment is correct: at least self-fund your PPL now, part time, if you can, and get it done. And get your application for a category 1 medical done now - the waiting time for processing is measured in years at the moment and you’ll regret having extra months of delay just for that.
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photofly
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by photofly »

ant_321 wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 5:52 am I would start now part time (assuming you have access to the first 45k while still in the military). Get your ppl, night rating and do some time building and in 1.5 years take the other 45k and finish up the rest of your training in a few months.
It sounds like 45k now (by leaving the military entirely right now) OR 90k by doing the same later; not 45k now AND another 45k later.

However the sentiment is correct: at least self-fund your PPL now, part time, if you can, and get it done. And get your application for a category 1 medical done now - the waiting time for processing is measured in years at the moment and you’ll regret having extra months of delay just for that.

There are formulae for working out the mathematical answer to your question, but the right answer for you is most likely based on personal values of how much you’ll enjoy an extra year or two in your present role, how frustrated you’ll be about waiting to start your next career, how much satisfaction you’ll get from “getting started” on what’s next a little earlier, etc.

If you do want a mathematical answer, assume your pilot pay goes up some figure (say $10k per year on average) and starting a year and a half earlier is an extra $15k per year every year for (about) 30 years. The lump sum value of that depends on interest rates but at a discount rate of 5% I’d say the present value of that is about $230k.

($15k income annually for eternity at 5% is worth $300k, but the present value of $300k in thirty years - again at 5% - is $70k)
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DId you hear the one about the jurisprudence fetishist? He got off on a technicality.
nutlord
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by nutlord »

photofly wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 6:21 am
ant_321 wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 5:52 am I would start now part time (assuming you have access to the first 45k while still in the military). Get your ppl, night rating and do some time building and in 1.5 years take the other 45k and finish up the rest of your training in a few months.
It sounds like 45k now (by leaving the military entirely right now) OR 90k by doing the same later; not 45k now AND another 45k later.
This is correct, I don't have access to any of the education benefit unless I quit my job and am training full time.
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averageatbest
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by averageatbest »

If you start now, you may enter the industry at a better time, but you'll still be several years behind those who start now.
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TT1900
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by TT1900 »

A lot will depend on how you plan to structure your training. The way VAC breaks down “formal training” vs “short course” will affect how much they’ll pay and the schedule over which they’ll pay it out. Take a read through policy below:

https://www.veterans.gc.ca/eng/about-va ... nload/2685

Personally, I’d give the VAC transition advisors a call. They should be able to help you optimize your plan. Might help inform your decision.

Good luck.
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nutlord
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by nutlord »

TT1900 wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 12:20 pm A lot will depend on how you plan to structure your training. The way VAC breaks down “formal training” vs “short course” will affect how much they’ll pay and the schedule over which they’ll pay it out. Take a read through policy below:

https://www.veterans.gc.ca/eng/about-va ... nload/2685

Personally, I’d give the VAC transition advisors a call. They should be able to help you optimize your plan. Might help inform your decision.

Good luck.
So I gave them a call and their response essentially boiled down to "it depends, exceptions can be made, though we can't tell you whether you'll be approved for more than 20k/academic year until you actually quit the military and apply for the benefit". So it looks like 1.5 extra years in the military for maybe getting approved for the full 90k, but potentially still only getting 45k. That being said, I'd be able to put the remaining 45k towards a different educational program down the road if aviation doesn't work out..
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TT1900
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by TT1900 »

Well that’s not so useful...

I’d agree with Photofly then. If you’re not happy in your current job, have a plan, and can afford to make the switch now then go for it. Time is the one thing you’ll never get back. Plenty of opportunities you might miss out on because of those 1.5 years.
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ogc
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by ogc »

My 2 cents.

If you are going to do the training anyways and can afford to do it now. Start now.

Timing in this industry is everything, and being able to take advantage of a market that needs pilots is worth a lot.
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digits_
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by digits_ »

Given your new info it's a no brainer to start now if you want to fly commercially.
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nutlord
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by nutlord »

digits_ wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 7:22 pm Given your new info it's a no brainer to start now if you want to fly commercially.
Ok, thanks for the follow up. I realized that I was pretty vague with my personal situation. A more complete financial picture would be as follows:
- No house, no kids, married, late 20s, already have a uni degree (relatively useless without a masters though).
- Releasing from military today would give 45k education benefit, 40k cash return of pension contributions.
- Releasing in 1.5 years may give 90k education benefit, 50k cash return of contributions (and i can continue to save in that time).
- Wife earns approx 80k/year for the next 1.5 years, then expected to go to 250k/year in what I believe to be a stable profession.
- Current finances are 40k debt at 1% fixed, 200k in liquid investments (TFSA, RRSP).

Option 1: Stay in the military for 1.5 years and in return getting potentially 45k more to put towards my flight training and the opportunity to put aside approx 20k over that time (or use it to get my PPL while I wait cause that's not covered by the military benefit). This would leave me with approx 20-60k more saved up at the end of my training, but with 1.5 years less in my flying career.

Option 2: Quit now and use my 45k education benefit and approx 55k of personal funds to pay for the flight training. This would leave me with less saved up at the end of my training, but 1.5 more years to fly professionally.

Pro:
- Stability of employment and greater income while my wife is still in her "low earning" phase of career.
- Potentially unlock 45k more education benefit (though still not guaranteed that it would be approved)

Con:
- I could end up sitting out a good period for getting that elusive first job and end up entering the market at a bad time
- Im in the military and that has a host of potentially life altering considerations at a geopolitically unstable time.
- Uncertainty of employment in the aviation market is a big stressor for me. I could always rejoin the military in the reserves though as a backup.

Given this further info, does that change your recommendation?
Any other pro/con considerations that I may be missing?
Thanks again for the insight.
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digits_
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by digits_ »

No. It doesn't sound like the potential extra 45k is a breaking point in your decision. So *if* you want to fly professionally, then start asap.

The important question I would ask myself, is if you want to fly as a career. I don't know military life, but it sounds like the things you want to avoid will likely be encountered in your aviation career as well...
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nutlord
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by nutlord »

digits_ wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 9:27 pm No. It doesn't sound like the potential extra 45k is a breaking point in your decision. So *if* you want to fly professionally, then start asap.

The important question I would ask myself, is if you want to fly as a career. I don't know military life, but it sounds like the things you want to avoid will likely be encountered in your aviation career as well...
That's a good point. I don't mind being the "supporting member of the relationship" between my wife and I, but I am quite certain that I want to fly for a career. If that means working for a regional and becoming I can become a big fish in a small pond who can control my schedule better in exchange for high pay that's good by me.
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digits_
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by digits_ »

nutlord wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 9:35 pm
digits_ wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 9:27 pm No. It doesn't sound like the potential extra 45k is a breaking point in your decision. So *if* you want to fly professionally, then start asap.

The important question I would ask myself, is if you want to fly as a career. I don't know military life, but it sounds like the things you want to avoid will likely be encountered in your aviation career as well...
That's a good point. I don't mind being the "supporting member of the relationship" between my wife and I, but I am quite certain that I want to fly for a career. If that means working for a regional and becoming I can become a big fish in a small pond who can control my schedule better in exchange for high pay that's good by me.
It's the first job that might force you to move somewhere for a year or two. Or maybe not. Just a possibility to keep in mind.
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by Flight94 »

Buy a nice 150 or 152 for 40k, and find a freelance instructor. Fly as much as you can and when that extra 45k is released you'll be in a position where getting your CPL will be a breeze, in terms of finance and remaining training.
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nutlord
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by nutlord »

Flight94 wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 10:08 am Buy a nice 150 or 152 for 40k, and find a freelance instructor. Fly as much as you can and when that extra 45k is released you'll be in a position where getting your CPL will be a breeze, in terms of finance and remaining training.
So essentially you're recommending to buy a plane to fly and build hours while continuing to work in the military? On another note, I got confirmation from VAC that they'll pony up the full 90k for me to do the license and get all the ratings so I think I'll do my ppl and just fly for fun for the next 1.5 years while still staying in the CAF, and then have all my other training covered by the gov't. Hopefully interest rates will come down too so my pension transfer value will go up. I'll probably just rent instead of buying though; plane ownership seems like a potential massive moneypit, especially taking into account insurance costs for a low/no-timer like myself.
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by dh89 »

May I ask where you live?
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by flying4dollars »

Keep in mind that additional $45k fund is probably close to $60k worth of income required to cover $45k worth of education. I'm sure you're aware of the abysmal salaries in this country. Being able to be mostly debt free going into the industry makes it much more manageable. I'd stick it out for 1.5 years as that $45k is most definitely worth it.

Good luck!
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by co-joe »

If you have time to start flying now part time, I would stay with the military and even look into student loan options. The money is coming to pay back whatever you draw on in debt, so the only additional cost is interest. I think things have changed, but when I took student loans for flying, you didn't have to start making payments until you finished school, and the interest on the loans was tax deductible. This didn't apply to the PPL, but it did apply for all the rest. Plus I got a decent chunk of remission when I finished. Worst case if you had to cash investments now, most are underperforming against inflation anyway, but I'd prefer student debt with a positive balance sheet over being debt free with no reserves.
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nutlord
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Re: To start now, or wait a couple years?

Post by nutlord »

dh89 wrote: Mon Jan 23, 2023 10:36 pm May I ask where you live?
I live in the lower mainland (BC).
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