So much for growth

[tbaylx]

I know YYC is opening as a base in April; any plans of YXE or YWG bases anytime soon?

YXE has never been under consideration, so highly unlikely.

We have considered YWG but it's down the list after YUL and YHZ. Almost certainly not before 2025 at the earliest.

[Ecpilot]

I know YYC is opening as a base in April; any plans of YXE or YWG bases anytime soon?

YXE has never been under consideration, so highly unlikely.

We have considered YWG but it's down the list after YUL and YHZ. Almost certainly not before 2025 at the earliest.

Any idea of the time line for YUL & YHZ base’s to open?

[tbaylx]

I know YYC is opening as a base in April; any plans of YXE or YWG bases anytime soon?

YXE has never been under consideration, so highly unlikely.

We have considered YWG but it's down the list after YUL and YHZ. Almost certainly not before 2025 at the earliest.

Any idea of the time line for YUL & YHZ base’s to open?

We've been waiting for YUL for quite some time. If I had to guess it would be 2024 for at least one of those, likely YUL first.

[Aviator12]

Looks like 2 machines headed to Austria. They were only registered to Flair for basically 1 month. Could be the ones sitting around Flair does not need right now as discussed earlier in this topic.

[SPR]

They've actually lost seven since I created this thread, plus another one in December that's unaffiliated with 777 Partners. I really fail to see what their strategy was when they painted all those tails in Flair's livery, configured them with Flair's seating plan, and had Flair register them on their AOC (how did they get Flair to do that for them if they're not the controlling shareholder? ) even though, as tbaylx claims, they never intended for Flair to operate those aircraft. Why would they bother spending all that money if the intention wasn't for Flair to ever use them? Why would they have Flair register them in December, only to have those registrations cancelled in January and February, if they just wanted to lease them on to third parties? Not a single aircraft that's been added to the fleet since October has stayed.

Edit: After a bit more digging, it looks like five of the exported aircraft went to the Bank of Utah, which is itself leasing them out. So either Flair took delivery of eight aircraft it could never utilize, or 777 Partners has a terrible business model in which they buy, paint, and configure aircraft, and then immediately sell them to competing lessors.

[GRK2]

I'm curious, why do you even care?

[safetyfirst123]

Flair's business model is likely predicated on cheap leases from 777 Partners, but now that 777 Partners can lease those Max's out elsewhere for far more money, or they can flip those airplanes on the market for a profit, it raises the question on how viable the Flair model is going forward. Hopefully Flair's business model is sustainable at normal market rates for Max leases. If that's the case, I highly doubt it will be 50 aircraft.

We also know that not every airline will be able to meet their growth objectives in the coming years, either due to unrealistic growth forecasts or inability to crew their airplanes. As always, there will be winners and losers, and pilots need to take that into account when choosing where they work.

[tbaylx]

Flair's business model is likely predicated on cheap leases from 777 Partners, but now that 777 Partners can lease those Max's out elsewhere for far more money, or they can flip those airplanes on the market for a profit, it raises the question on how viable the Flair model is going forward. Hopefully Flair's business model is sustainable at normal market rates for Max leases. If that's the case, I highly doubt it will be 50 aircraft.

We also know that not every airline will be able to meet their growth objectives in the coming years, either due to unrealistic growth forecasts or inability to crew their airplanes. As always, there will be winners and losers, and pilots need to take that into account when choosing where they work.

Few of our aircraft are leased direct from 777 Partners. Most are at market rates from a variety of lessors, and all growth plans are based on that.

[safetyfirst123]

[quote=tbaylx
Few of our aircraft are leased direct from 777 Partners. Most are at market rates from a variety of lessors, and all growth plans are based on that.
[/quote]

Thanks, I hope that's the case! Too many good people at Flair and competition is healthy for all.

[ThinMargins]

They've actually lost seven since I created this thread, plus another one in December that's unaffiliated with 777 Partners. I really fail to see what their strategy was when they painted all those tails in Flair's livery, configured them with Flair's seating plan, and had Flair register them on their AOC (how did they get Flair to do that for them if they're not the controlling shareholder? ) even though, as tbaylx claims, they never intended for Flair to operate those aircraft. Why would they bother spending all that money if the intention wasn't for Flair to ever use them? Why would they have Flair register them in December, only to have those registrations cancelled in January and February, if they just wanted to lease them on to third parties? Not a single aircraft that's been added to the fleet since October has stayed.

Edit: After a bit more digging, it looks like five of the exported aircraft went to the Bank of Utah, which is itself leasing them out. So either Flair took delivery of eight aircraft it could never utilize, or 777 Partners has a terrible business model in which they buy, paint, and configure aircraft, and then immediately sell them to competing lessors.

Word in the leasing community is that Flair isn’t paying rent on its leases and hasn’t been paying for many months now. Lessors are moving towards repossessing aircraft. Should be an interesting few weeks in Canadian aviation.

It would be interesting to see someone ask Stephen Jones or someone else at Flair if they are paying their lessors. I would like to see them spin a response to that. Their stock “we are a private company, we don’t comment on our financials” answer isn’t going to cut it. I bet if someone asked other private airlines, i.e. Porter, WestJet or Sunwing whether they are paying their leases they would get a straightforward response.

Most of the leases are not with 777 Partners btw.

[seriousflyer]

What is happening here ? Any truth here or just all rumour mill churning out terrible gossip?

[GRK2]

I call BS...unless this guy who claims to be in the know about "the leasing community" has truthful information he can post here, it's just one person making shyte up. He has some weird interest in seeing Flair fail and posts nothing but unsubstantiated rumours with some sort of wish to see the airline fail. I shudder to use the term, but it's "Fake News" unless he cares to show facts. It smells to high hell of a senior WS manager posting false information to keep Flair from "Eating Westjet's Breakfast."

[ThinMargins]

GRK2, here are specifics. This highlighted aircraft is just one example of the many aircraft that Flair is defaulting on. It is not productive to argue with each other and hurl accusations.

It would be great if those supposedly on the side of pilots (looking at tbalyx) can tell us that this is not true and can comfort us all that Flair has not defaulted on this lease. It is a yes or no question. They will not answer.



The summer schedule demands 30% fleet growth. Those tails need to be leased, imported and inducted by now if they are going to be flown the summer.

As people like SPR have shown here, aircraft are actually going away from the fleet. People like him are attacked for telling the truth. We should get direct answers from management. Starting with whether Flair is in default on C-FLKJ.

[Tbayer2021]

GRK2, here are specifics. This highlighted aircraft is just one example of the many aircraft that Flair is defaulting on. It is not productive to argue with each other and hurl accusations.

It would be great if those supposedly on the side of pilots (looking at tbalyx) can tell us that this is not true and can comfort us all that Flair has not defaulted on this lease. It is a yes or no question. They will not answer.



The summer schedule demands 30% fleet growth. Those tails need to be leased, imported and inducted by now if they are going to be flown the summer.

As people like SPR have shown here, aircraft are actually going away from the fleet. People like him are attacked for telling the truth. We should get direct answers from management. Starting with whether Flair is in default on C-FLKJ.

OK, I take everything tbalyx says with the largest grain of salt i can. But highlighting an aircraft on a list of other aircraft isn't proof of anything, let alone the company defaulting on payments.

[tbaylx]

The thing about lessors is when you stop paying them they take their aircraft back and then you aren't flying anymore.

All our aircraft in our fleet are operating when they haven't been hit by ground service equipment and we already have the first 3 additional spring aircraft on the property. Believe whoever you'd like, but the fact that we're operating our fleet and continuing to onboard additional aircraft would seem to indicate that we're paying our lessors and that you're posting rumors to drive an agenda.

[Sharklasers]

The thing about lessors is when you stop paying them they take their aircraft back and then you aren't flying anymore.

All our aircraft in our fleet are operating when they haven't been hit by ground service equipment and we already have the first 3 additional spring aircraft on the property. Believe whoever you'd like, but the fact that we're operating our fleet and continuing to onboard additional aircraft would seem to indicate that we're paying our lessors and that you're posting rumors to drive an agenda.

Jetsgo received delivery of its last airplane 60 days before throwing the chains on the doors.

Canada 3000 received A319 MSN 1598 9 days before abruptly shutting down.

Sky service received their last 757 4 months before the collapse

All of these things means nothing, it is unusual that flair has exported 8 painted fins in the last 6 months including 5 painted fins in the last 3 weeks. Does it mean anything? Who knows but budget airlines run until they don’t and we see the pax crying the blues on the CBC. If flair isn’t paying the leases I’m sure they would keep flying the fins until the fuel gets shut off like all the failed Canadian airlines of the past.

Flair isn’t Jetsgo and has survived to this point so I guess we will see how the summer shakes out.

[GRK2]

Ok, so I'm hoping that I'm not being accused of "ad hominem" attacks by the OP, but I still don't' see any proof of defaults or anything that (even remotely) proves anything really. You'll have to try harder to spread the dirty laundry.

Did anyone see that Flair is helping the Ukrainian refugees with onward travel for them once they arrive in Canada? Doesn't sound much like a failing airline to me.

Standing by...

[ThinMargins]

1

[ThinMargins]

The thing about lessors is when you stop paying them they take their aircraft back and then you aren't flying anymore.

All our aircraft in our fleet are operating when they haven't been hit by ground service equipment and we already have the first 3 additional spring aircraft on the property. Believe whoever you'd like, but the fact that we're operating our fleet and continuing to onboard additional aircraft would seem to indicate that we're paying our lessors and that you're posting rumors to drive an agenda.

You are a smart person and I respect you. But in this case both you and I know that wasn’t my question.

We all know that Flair is operating these aircraft today.

I asked whether they were paying their lessors. I gave a specific tail number C-FLKJ. All you need to do, is confirm for the rest of us that Flair is not in default. You will make me a liar and you will be proved right. One phone call to the finance team and you can give everyone comfort.

Just because someone is living in a house doesn’t mean they’re paying rent. Just like it’s hard to evict deadbeat tenants, it takes time to repossess aircraft. Flair owes us honesty and transparency. People are making decisions about their careers, you should help them.

[averageatbest]

The thing about lessors is when you stop paying them they take their aircraft back and then you aren't flying anymore.

All our aircraft in our fleet are operating when they haven't been hit by ground service equipment and we already have the first 3 additional spring aircraft on the property. Believe whoever you'd like, but the fact that we're operating our fleet and continuing to onboard additional aircraft would seem to indicate that we're paying our lessors and that you're posting rumors to drive an agenda.

You are a smart person and I respect you. But in this case both you and I know that wasn’t my question.

We all know that Flair is operating these aircraft today.

I asked whether they were paying their lessors. I gave a specific tail number C-FLKJ. All you need to do, is confirm for the rest of us that Flair is not in default. You will make me a liar and you will be proved right. One phone call to the finance team and you can give everyone comfort.

Just because someone is living in a house doesn’t mean they’re paying rent. Just like it’s hard to evict deadbeat tenants, it takes time to repossess aircraft. Flair owes us honesty and transparency. People are making decisions about their careers, you should help them.

Do you expect an answer other than "we are paying our creditors in full and on time"?

[daedalusx]

The thing about lessors is when you stop paying them they take their aircraft back and then you aren't flying anymore.

All our aircraft in our fleet are operating when they haven't been hit by ground service equipment and we already have the first 3 additional spring aircraft on the property. Believe whoever you'd like, but the fact that we're operating our fleet and continuing to onboard additional aircraft would seem to indicate that we're paying our lessors and that you're posting rumors to drive an agenda.

You are a smart person and I respect you. But in this case both you and I know that wasn’t my question.

We all know that Flair is operating these aircraft today.

I asked whether they were paying their lessors. I gave a specific tail number C-FLKJ. All you need to do, is confirm for the rest of us that Flair is not in default. You will make me a liar and you will be proved right. One phone call to the finance team and you can give everyone comfort.

Just because someone is living in a house doesn’t mean they’re paying rent. Just like it’s hard to evict deadbeat tenants, it takes time to repossess aircraft. Flair owes us honesty and transparency. People are making decisions about their careers, you should help them.

Do you expect an answer other than "we are paying our creditors in full and on time"?
[/.

[Floop]

I'd love some details on where this rumour about FLKJ's lease came from? Why that aircraft specifically?

[SPR]

I still don't' see any proof of defaults or anything that (even remotely) proves anything really.

I posted a screenshot from the Civil Aircraft Register showing eight aircraft have left the fleet in the last two months. Is that not proof of "anything"? Are you saying you don't believe that the screen shot is real? Because you can go verify yourself. Or are you implying that the Register can't be trusted and is, as you put it earlier, "fake news"? What part of eight aircraft being exported isn't true?

[GRK2]

SPR,

What part of any of the reasons already given to you don't you understand? There has been no fleet reduction and Flair continues to acquire tails as advertised. Indeed, as already explained by tbaylx, three more tails are "on the property", and Flair continues to hire for the next year. Just because the world continues to trade/buy/sell aircraft for a tasty profit, does not mean Flair is losing tails. Registries change as owners move/buy/sell assets yet Flair still has the same number of tails on the property. If Flair has lost the numbers you claim they have, a rather large number of employees would have been furloughed, which isn't the case at all. You claim 8 have "left the fleet." The math on cew reductions only would be an over-staff of over 100 pilots if your speculations were actually true. Still hiring and growing as you might see from their website.

I asked you a question previously that you still haven't, or won't, answer. Why do you even care? What's your angle here?

You seem to take a dark delight in trying to put Flair in a bad light which, gathering by the latest responses here, is not having the effect you'd like.

Which is why your posts are looking suspiciously like you are shilling for the competition.

[Tbayer2021]

I still don't' see any proof of defaults or anything that (even remotely) proves anything really.

I posted a screenshot from the Civil Aircraft Register showing eight aircraft have left the fleet in the last two months. Is that not proof of "anything"? Are you saying you don't believe that the screen shot is real? Because you can go verify yourself. Or are you implying that the Register can't be trusted and is, as you put it earlier, "fake news"? What part of eight aircraft being exported isn't true?

You posted a screenshot claiming it was proof of Flair defaulting on its debts. While it is proof of said and other aircraft leaving the fleet, it doesn't even come close to being proof of Flair defaulting.

You demand Flair provides answers to their financial status, yet you see no need in providing evidence to your claim? You don't see a problem with any of this? If you're so concerned with pilots having current and factual information to make an informed career decision. Why don't you help them out and provide proof of Flair going bankrupt?