Flair Airlines - Planes seized

[RoAF-Mig21]

It's because AC now has a fast-track training program for the 37, and AC reserves the right to put you on a course. So yeah, it would save them $$$.

Cool. You learn something new every day. I did not know that. Thanks for the info.

[cdnavater]

This is either gonna go one of two ways. Either flair weather's the storm, I'm sure with a big cash influx from their investors, and carries on, regardless of what somebody maybe heard a fueller in Ottawa say. Or things break down very quickly and we'll know in a week or two. Who knows, everything said on here is speculation.

Either way the folks on here are making gleeful posts about flair crashing when the reality is hundreds of your peers (not to mention every non pilot employee at the airline) are facing possible unemployment.

Say flair does end and westjet pilots strike, good luck being able to afford flights in May. Canada needs the competition, Flair failing would be a loss for all of us.

I couldn't agree more. It's one less option for pilots trying to find a decent job in this country, which is a win for management at the remaining airlines.

Agreed, less chance of getting a massive win on a contract renewal if other airlines aren't around to outbid each other for pilots.

No doubt, a negative outcome will be negotiating tool for management, see what happens when we pay too much to pilots!

[photofly]

It is possible flair is becoming a Ponzi scheme. If you book a flight for next month, your payment is being used to make these lease payments to keep the system afloat.

Isn't that literally how every airline operates?

(Not meant as a joke)

Paying today's creditors with tomorrow's revenue is normal business. Paying (fake) profits to today's investors with tomorrow's revenue - that's a Ponzi scheme.

[cdnavater]

It is possible flair is becoming a Ponzi scheme. If you book a flight for next month, your payment is being used to make these lease payments to keep the system afloat.

Isn't that literally how every airline operates?

(Not meant as a joke)

Paying today's creditors with tomorrow's revenue is normal business. Paying (fake) profits to today's investors with tomorrow's revenue - that's a Ponzi scheme.

Not selling your widgets for a profit and paying todays bills with 6 months forward revenue is a bad business plan?

[Localizer]

The one airline that actually wanted to serve smaller markets will now probably go under.
What a shame, flair made a huge difference in the Canadian aviation landscape and lowered prices of airfares for the past 6 years.
Their loads are absolutely amazing this week (obviously), but even in the few weeks prior, their core routes were performing well. But Flair did make some really stupid business decisions that ruined their reputation; such as the Tucson disaster.

It would be nice to see a government bail-out, given how flair has completely altered the Canadian Aviation landscape and given how they actually serve smaller airports in the country, but I doubt it'll happen since its not Air Canada.

We should not be bailing out companies with a business model that doesn’t work. That would kick the stone down the road and just delay the inevitable. ULCC model does not work in Canada.

ULCC’s work if you followed the method used in the USA. They subsidize the price of a ticket with cargo contracts that make up the bulk of their revenue. The bag charges are high to try and dissuade people from checking a bag, but if they do, they’ll pay fees to offset the cargo. The cost of the ticket and fees charged are all bonus money.

Good luck getting your hands on a decent cargo contract in Canada, AC/CargoJet have the lion’s share of the market wrapped up.

[Maurice]

Looking at todays Flair flights, don’t see any cancelled flights. Meanwhile WJ has cancelled their YYC-YKF flight.

Obviously this is very rocky for Flair at the moment, I’m
holding some optimism. Any airline going out of business does no good for Canadian aviation. Shame on the ones on here rooting for flair failure, we need to be propping each other up with support here.

More like shame on the airline with the unsustainable business model making the industry worse for every other carrier. US airlines with massive profits, raises and profit sharing while Canadian airlines are still losing money with unsustainable fares. Look at how much capacity US airlines have dropped to Canada and you can see something is broken up here - not saying Flair is all the problem in Canada for airlines, but they aren't helping.

[goldeneagle]

double post

[goldeneagle]

Paying today's creditors with tomorrow's revenue is normal business. Paying (fake) profits to today's investors with tomorrow's revenue - that's a Ponzi scheme.

In aviation there are some other interesting twists. ie, for all the big us airlines, the loyalty program is worth far more than the airline. Watch this to the end, it's enlightening. US airlines lose money on the flights, but make significant profit from the loyalty programs. more than enough to offset the operating losses.

https://youtu.be/ggUduBmvQ_4?list=FLhHX ... JKp6gqa0XA

[flyndad]

Probably the beginning of the end, they will have lost trust.

[MaxAuto]

I couldn't agree more. It's one less option for pilots trying to find a decent job in this country, which is a win for management at the remaining airlines.

Agreed, less chance of getting a massive win on a contract renewal if other airlines aren't around to outbid each other for pilots.

No doubt, a negative outcome will be negotiating tool for management, see what happens when we pay too much to pilots!

I think it's the opposite. Management often makes the argument by saying we need to stay competitive to justifying lower wages. ULCC don't work in big countries with cities few and far between. That's Canada. If you're not first you're last. AC and WestJet came first. West coast East coast.

It works in the US and Europe because there are so many places to see and things to do. Up and down relatively quick flights.

[VmcAllTheWayDown]

Probably the beginning of the end, they will have lost trust.

Not to sure about this. The average flair ticket buyer would purchase the ticket again in a matter of months if it cost $75 round trip vs $299 one way with a major carrier. Sunwing issue in December is an example. Lots of public out cry lots of “NEVER AGAIN” yet seats are still filled

[‘Bob’]

Anyone who didn’t see this coming is blind.

[dumbbell daddy]

If anything happens to Flair this will not be good for wage and working conditions in this country. I bet AC management is salivating over all these Boeing qualified guys being available soon.

Doesn't matter. Being "Boeing qualified" doesn't mean you'll be flying a Boeing at AC. Boeing, RJ, Embraer, it's all the same. An ex Flair guy may end up right seat on an A220 and a Porter guy from the Q400 on the 777.

Yes it does matter. I worked at AC and subsequently resigned during COVID. In PIT they can force you on any piece of equipment. If you have Boeing or Airbus time they can force you on the wide bodies. You will also loose your WB FO course right. No offence but the VPFO MS said it himself. He doesn't like a new hire Dash pilot sitting right seat in a 777 going across the pond.

[Localizer]

Looking at todays Flair flights, don’t see any cancelled flights. Meanwhile WJ has cancelled their YYC-YKF flight.

Obviously this is very rocky for Flair at the moment, I’m
holding some optimism. Any airline going out of business does no good for Canadian aviation. Shame on the ones on here rooting for flair failure, we need to be propping each other up with support here.

More like shame on the airline with the unsustainable business model making the industry worse for every other carrier. US airlines with massive profits, raises and profit sharing while Canadian airlines are still losing money with unsustainable fares. Look at how much capacity US airlines have dropped to Canada and you can see something is broken up here - not saying Flair is all the problem in Canada for airlines, but they aren't helping.

Our government is what’s broken. We over tax people to use the airport and treat it as a “luxury” instead of the economic driver that it really is. We have airports collecting outrageous AIF fees, and NavCanada fees are a joke considering the services continue to go to shit. If you wanna get to the brass tax of what’s broken … Canada is broken … and I can’t lay that at the feet of Trudeau because it’s been happening since deregulation.

[rooster]

Anyone who didn’t see this coming is blind.

Good golly you fortune tellers all said the same thing in their first year of inception in the ULCC game. Then you all said it again the year after when it didn't happen. Then you said it in 2019 when the fleet was all classics. Then you said it in 2020 during the pandemic and THIS TIME IT WOULD BE LIGHTS OUT FOR REALLL. Then you said it in 2021 during their expansion announcements with the MAX. See the trend?

Settle the f*ck down for f*cks sakes. Ya'll love to jump on a headline like pack rats!

[RoAF-Mig21]

If anything happens to Flair this will not be good for wage and working conditions in this country. I bet AC management is salivating over all these Boeing qualified guys being available soon.

Doesn't matter. Being "Boeing qualified" doesn't mean you'll be flying a Boeing at AC. Boeing, RJ, Embraer, it's all the same. An ex Flair guy may end up right seat on an A220 and a Porter guy from the Q400 on the 777.

Yes it does matter. I worked at AC and subsequently resigned during COVID. In PIT they can force you on any piece of equipment. If you have Boeing or Airbus time they can force you on the wide bodies. You will also loose your WB FO course right. No offence but the VPFO MS said it himself. He doesn't like a new hire Dash pilot sitting right seat in a 777 going across the pond.

Cool thanks for the info. When you say "Doesn't like a new hire Dash pilot sitting right seat in a 777 going across the pond", does that mean he doesn't like it but it's still possible, or it's not alowed? What managers like and what's legal (CARs and Union rules, etc) are two different things. I'm not offended at all. This is all good info. I care for facts, not "fuzzy warm feelings"

[jpilot77]

Doesn't matter. Being "Boeing qualified" doesn't mean you'll be flying a Boeing at AC. Boeing, RJ, Embraer, it's all the same. An ex Flair guy may end up right seat on an A220 and a Porter guy from the Q400 on the 777.

Yes it does matter. I worked at AC and subsequently resigned during COVID. In PIT they can force you on any piece of equipment. If you have Boeing or Airbus time they can force you on the wide bodies. You will also loose your WB FO course right. No offence but the VPFO MS said it himself. He doesn't like a new hire Dash pilot sitting right seat in a 777 going across the pond.

Cool thanks for the info. When you say "Doesn't like a new hire Dash pilot sitting right seat in a 777 going across the pond", does that mean he doesn't like it but it's still possible, or it's not alowed? What managers like and what's legal (CARs and Union rules, etc) are two different things. I'm not offended at all. This is all good info. I care for facts, not "fuzzy warm feelings"

New hires without jet time aren’t going FO on the wide bodies. You’ll get narrow body FO or wide body RP.

[RoAF-Mig21]

New hires without jet time aren’t going FO on the wide bodies. You’ll get narrow body FO or wide body RP.

Make sense. Thanks for the info.

On a personal note, I'm not concerned about that. I have plenty of jet time... and I'm not going to AC anytime soon anyway.

[Just another canuck]

No cash for fuel at airports. The airports themselves are irrelevant as its it the fuel provider (Shell etc) that provide fuel across the country. The into plane providers work at the behest of the oil companies and paid by them who, in turn, invoice the airlines.

Second rumor - if the other lessors are 'concerned' they would pull their aircraft as soon as they are not paid. No one has done so. If in the next week we don't see other lessors 'seizing' their aircraft then it lends credence to the fact that leases are being paid.

The building has caught fire, there are flames everywhere and you’re telling everyone not to panic.

A company has to pay their employees. Next they should be paying their lessors. There’s been issues with both these receiving their money now, so what about contracts further down the list like fuel, de-ice, grooming, catering, maintenance, Navcanada and others? If the employees are being stiffed for OT and the lessors are grounding planes, then I can’t imagine the rest are being paid when they’re supposed to either.

But maybe I’m wrong. Would I apply to Flair? No. Would I book a flight on Flair? No. Would I recommend any friends/family book with Flair? No.

[Big Pistons Forever]

It works in the US and Europe because there are so many places to see and things to do. Up and down relatively quick flights.

That is the Canadian Conundrum. The tyranny of a small population living far apart makes the ULCC model hard to execute at a profit. This is exacerbated by successive federal governments both Conservative and Liberal, that used aviation as a general revenue source instead of supporting a sustainable national air transportation sector.

No ULCC has lasted and sadly, I don’t think this time it is going to be different

[jpilot77]

New hires without jet time aren’t going FO on the wide bodies. You’ll get narrow body FO or wide body RP.

Make sense. Thanks for the info.

On a personal note, I'm not concerned about that. I have plenty of jet time... and I'm not going to AC anytime soon anyway.

No stress, just explaining what happens to anyone who comes over what they can expect.

[cjp]

Let's work together to help our brothers and sisters find a new home. If they (Flair) were having trouble getting flight crew before, I think they (Flair) inadvertently called a rapid deplanement.

At this point, any Flair colleagues will be welcome with open arms at Porter should worst come to worst.

I liked the competition Flair was providing the industry for WAWCON - at least on the surface. I was unaware of the points JHR was citing. If they prove true, then that is truly unfortunate.

[Old fella]

No cash for fuel at airports. The airports themselves are irrelevant as its it the fuel provider (Shell etc) that provide fuel across the country. The into plane providers work at the behest of the oil companies and paid by them who, in turn, invoice the airlines.

Second rumor - if the other lessors are 'concerned' they would pull their aircraft as soon as they are not paid. No one has done so. If in the next week we don't see other lessors 'seizing' their aircraft then it lends credence to the fact that leases are being paid.

The building has caught fire, there are flames everywhere and you’re telling everyone not to panic.

A company has to pay their employees. Next they should be paying their lessors. There’s been issues with both these receiving their money now, so what about contracts further down the list like fuel, de-ice, grooming, catering, maintenance, Navcanada and others? If the employees are being stiffed for OT and the lessors are grounding planes, then I can’t imagine the rest are being paid when they’re supposed to either.

But maybe I’m wrong. Would I apply to Flair? No. Would I book a flight on Flair? No. Would I recommend any friends/family book with Flair? No.

Certainly valid observation there Canuck.I share same concerns on booking any travel at present on Flair, and I said similar to family/friends and acquaintances who are doing any travelling especially families with kids. Taking it one step further, I don’t recall airlines like Encore, Swoop, Jazz, Porter , Sunwing, Air Transat et al having aircraft seized due non payment arrears.Perhaps Flair bit off more that it can chew covering West to East in a country with second largest world land mass and 40th spot in world population.

[BGH]

One hedge fund cockroach sees a better income for his planes somewhere else & takes them back,another sees a chance to make money & leases them aircraft to replace these - looks like a normal day.

[cdnavater]

I read an article that mentioned the leases in question were pandemic leases at an approximate 200,000/month, same aircraft are now leasing for 4-600 grand per month.
If they couldn’t make money with cheap leases, how will they grow now?
Best case, they get enough money together to keep the current or slightly smaller fleet going and grow more organically as demand dictates.
One thing for sure, 8 dollar airfare is not profitable, must’ve been using the AIFs etc that were being collected as revenue for the bills.
Anyone know how often those fees are due for remittance? Is is monthly, semi monthly or bi annually?