Long term weather forcast

[dirtdr]

Can anyone help me out? I am looking for a site that gives reliable long term weather forecasts.

About a weeks worth of corcast would be ideal.... Estimated ceiling, winds, icing??

I am just looking for a rough idea if i can go out and burn holes in the sky on the weekend, or if i shud find other plans.

Thanks in advance

[CpnCrunch]

I don't think such a thing exists...

I just look at the regular env canada website (http://weatheroffice.gc.ca/) and theweathernetwork.com and see whether it says it's going to be sunny or cloudy. Go with whichever is most pessimistic. That's about the best you can get for a week ahead, although it can still be very hit and miss.

For a few days ahead you can also use the NOAA prog charts:

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/progs/

Beyond a day or two, the forecast isn't really much more than guesswork. If you check the 24-hour TAF the day before (YYC or other large airport should have this), it's usually fairly accurate.

[howard40]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml



use this and watch for a big " H " to sit over your area, Watch where the "H" comes from will help you with temp.
It will not! tellyou about local affects, for instance where I live has had a big H influence for a few days but due to airmass etc, it has been foggy mornings with clear but hazy afternoons. A big H means lighter winds... you use these maps and the other stuff mentioned to get a picture of what is probably going to happen . Of course 3 days out is more accurate than 7!
fly safe
a saturday morning look out the window is the best! but even then call FSS as you might get a surprise what can happen by 11 if you dont know whats coming

[flatface]

Deleted

[imarai]

If, as you say, you want a "rough idea", use the 7-day public weather forecast. If you want a 7-day forecast of ceilings, visibility, winds, and icing (really?) well, dream on.

[Beefitarian]

This one is pretty good.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/fourteenday/usaz0166

Of course it's only for Phoenix where the weather is actually predictable. Anywhere else... sorry.

[jump154]

Not sure why all the fuss about long term weather forecasts. I thought we all knew that the important thing is a last minute wind update from the Tower on short final, in case of variable tailwindshear.

[Beefitarian]

There's allready a site for that though. http://www.wunderground.com/

[Colonel Sanders]

You guys are too funny ... years from now, someone here
will mention "variable tailwind on final" and everyone will
crack up except the newbies.

Back on topic ... this is what I use:

http://www.intellicast.com/Travel/Outlook.aspx

You can step forward by changing the day under
"Travel Outlook / Forecast".

It's right up there with reading tea leaves and
astronomy, but ...

[goldeneagle]

It's right up there with reading tea leaves and
astronomy, but ...

I think you are confusing astronomy with astrology. Astrology is sort of like weather forecasting, right about 25% of the time. Astronomy is a very disciplined science.

FWIW, I've counselled all the kids, weather forecast is the ideal job, but none of them took me up on it. Where else can you work for an entire career, be wrong 90% of the time, not get fired for it, and end up with a fat government pension out of the deal ?????

[iflyforpie]

It's right up there with reading tea leaves and
astronomy, but ...

I think you are confusing astronomy with astrology. Astrology is sort of like weather forecasting, right about 25% of the time. Astronomy is a very disciplined science.

That's what you think. I spent over 20 years of my life believing Pluto was a planet and Ceres was an asteroid. I'm waiting for Betelgeuse to blow up, but they can only predict it within a million years!

[trampbike]

There's allready a site for that though. http://www.wunderground.com/

It's actually a pretty awesome website though! It can be used as a great educational tool.

If you are interested in meteorolgy, you can go to the Model Maps section and see how different levels of the atmosphere (ex: 300mb for the jet stream during the winter, 500mb for vorticity advection, 850mb for humidity, etc) relate to each other. You can also see how different models run. You can then compare all this with tephigrams and metars. It all helps a lot to understand how weather works, but it is obviously way too much work for a pilot...

Trust the NOAA or Environment Canada for forecasting (it doesn't matter where you get you information on the internet, the source is always the same: the GFS, GEM, NAM and a couple of other forecasting models). Keep in mind that the atmosphere is a chaotic system (deviations tend to increase very fast) which can only be approximated by even our best numerical analysis tools. It's much more comparable to physics than astrology. The problem is just that the error bar grows larger and larger as you try to predict further in time.

I like to use this link for my weather forecasts. You can zoom in for local or zoom out for the entire continent. You can overlay clouds etc.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northe ... dar?play=1

You won't forecast much with radar information alone though.

Can anyone help me out? I am looking for a site that gives reliable long term weather forecasts.

This doesn't exist.

About a weeks worth of corcast would be ideal.... Estimated ceiling, winds, icing??

You won't have anything solid beyond the 24h range for such things.

[PAJ]

Far from perfect but good for a peak into the next few days ...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MAV/

US based but some spill over.

PAJ

[YCL Boy]

You can also try this one, goes up to 5 days based on the GEM-REG (up to 24hrs) Then GEM-GLB (25 to 120hrs)
You can play with all the function, but in short click ANIMATE.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/c ... m_reg.html

[dirtdr]

Thanks for all the links, guys. Some good sites there that I was not aware of.

I realize these sites cannot be used for official weather briefings but will come in handy for planning. I share a plane that is parked 4 hour drive from where I live... So I need a general idea of whether or not to make the trek.

[La Mouette]

http://weatherspark.com/

[masterabhiram]

“As the most accurate source of weather forecasts and warnings in the world, AccuWeather is the clear leader in keeping people safe and out of harm's way,” said Dr. Joel N. Myers, Founder, President, and Chairman of AccuWeather. “Most important are the lives we have saved worldwide through our Superior Accuracy.

[CpnCrunch]

avalanche.ca (then click on the weather icon) actually has pretty decent long-range forecasts. It gives you a somewhat accurate idea of whether there are going to be any low pressure systems or precipitation in the general area within the next 5 days or so.

[co-joe]

Have you tried the Farmer's Almanac?

[W5]

I have been using https://www.ventusky.com worldwide. Does a better job than most.

[CpnCrunch]

windy.com is also useful for getting an idea of winds and cloud cover up to a few days ahead.