Realistic upgrade time

[GTEO]

Hi everyone. I realize that this subject is a moving target, but I’m curious to hear what a realistic upgrade timeline would look like for a new hire today. Obviously a lot of unknown variables are in play, but is 8 to 10 years still a fair guess? Is there anything in the works that might lower this? I know that there’s a large Max 10 order signed, and I’ve read about the plans to double the flying capacity out of YYC over the next decade. Also, what DOH could hold a left seat today if they chose to? I understand that some people might not want to commute and would prefer to stay in the right seat at their home base. Thank you in advance!

[josejimenes33]

viewtopic.php?t=193799

[GTEO]

Fair enough. Thanks. Another variable would be senior pilots leaving for AC. I’m guessing that has slowed down with the new contract? I know it’s still early, but are more people turning down interviews and offers from AC?

[Canadaflyer46]

It's currently 9 years to upgrade in YYZ, 15 years for YYC.
Average age is mid-40s so not many retirements coming, and the fleet is actually shrinking lately. The Max10 order is to mostly replace what they have in NGs (that's why the execs always refuse to answer that question in town halls about whether we're actually adding tails or not).
In short, don't expect it to get any quicker.

[Inverted2]

Fair enough. Thanks. Another variable would be senior pilots leaving for AC. I’m guessing that has slowed down with the new contract? I know it’s still early, but are more people turning down interviews and offers from AC?

I heard a new AC hire pilots actually left AC for Westjet. So it’s sort of going both ways now I guess.

[vanislepilot]

Fair enough. Thanks. Another variable would be senior pilots leaving for AC. I’m guessing that has slowed down with the new contract? I know it’s still early, but are more people turning down interviews and offers from AC?

I heard a new AC hire pilots actually left AC for Westjet. So it’s sort of going both ways now I guess.

Is there truth to this? First time i’ve heard of such thing

[ant_321]

It's currently 9 years to upgrade in YYZ, 15 years for YYC.
Average age is mid-40s so not many retirements coming, and the fleet is actually shrinking lately. The Max10 order is to mostly replace what they have in NGs (that's why the execs always refuse to answer that question in town halls about whether we're actually adding tails or not).
In short, don't expect it to get any quicker.

You don’t think bringing Swoop and Sunwing in under the WestJet AOC will decrease upgrade times? That’s a fair number of tails.

[Canadaflyer46]

It's currently 9 years to upgrade in YYZ, 15 years for YYC.
Average age is mid-40s so not many retirements coming, and the fleet is actually shrinking lately. The Max10 order is to mostly replace what they have in NGs (that's why the execs always refuse to answer that question in town halls about whether we're actually adding tails or not).
In short, don't expect it to get any quicker.

You don’t think bringing Swoop and Sunwing in under the WestJet AOC will decrease upgrade times? That’s a fair number of tails.

The Swoop integration bid for October has already been filled, most junior captain still had 9 years seniority here.
As for the Sunwing merger, no idea how many planes they have but maybe it’ll bring it down to 8 years with any luck.

[CaptDukeNukem]

It's currently 9 years to upgrade in YYZ, 15 years for YYC.
Average age is mid-40s so not many retirements coming, and the fleet is actually shrinking lately. The Max10 order is to mostly replace what they have in NGs (that's why the execs always refuse to answer that question in town halls about whether we're actually adding tails or not).
In short, don't expect it to get any quicker.

You don’t think bringing Swoop and Sunwing in under the WestJet AOC will decrease upgrade times? That’s a fair number of tails.

Also bringing in the equivalent number of pilots. Most likely with certain fences.

[RockSalty]

It's currently 9 years to upgrade in YYZ, 15 years for YYC.
Average age is mid-40s so not many retirements coming, and the fleet is actually shrinking lately. The Max10 order is to mostly replace what they have in NGs (that's why the execs always refuse to answer that question in town halls about whether we're actually adding tails or not).
In short, don't expect it to get any quicker.

You don’t think bringing Swoop and Sunwing in under the WestJet AOC will decrease upgrade times? That’s a fair number of tails.

Also bringing in the equivalent number of pilots. Most likely with certain fences.

At least with the swoop integration a bunch of those ex captains are leaving to chase the 4 bars somewhere else

[dontcallmeshirley]

You don’t think bringing Swoop and Sunwing in under the WestJet AOC will decrease upgrade times? That’s a fair number of tails.

Also bringing in the equivalent number of pilots. Most likely with certain fences.

At least with the swoop integration a bunch of those ex captains are leaving to chase the 4 bars somewhere else

Why would they leave if they're still getting paid captain rates?

[Canadaflyer46]

Also bringing in the equivalent number of pilots. Most likely with certain fences.

At least with the swoop integration a bunch of those ex captains are leaving to chase the 4 bars somewhere else

Why would they leave if they're still getting paid captain rates?

They’re getting paid their old rate (the one that’s the lowest in the world for a 737 captain) until their new FO rate catches up, which it does at year 3. Huge gift in CA2 for them, I wouldn’t have given them jack shit.
Remember for a certain group of them this was never about pay. It was all about having the left seat and telling mommy you’re a 737 captain.

[dontcallmeshirley]

They’re getting paid their old rate (the one that’s the lowest in the world for a 737 captain) until their new FO rate catches up, which it does at year 3. Huge gift in CA2 for them, I wouldn’t have given them jack shit.
Remember for a certain group of them this was never about pay. It was all about having the left seat and telling mommy you’re a 737 captain.

I have nothing against people who chose Swoop after the first few years. They chose to take the lower rate and ended up benefiting from it.

The worse WAWCONs should never have been agreed to, but they were. Once they were agreed to, it would be better to keep WestJetters in those seats than off the street 1500 hour instructors. I'm sure we've all heard the Swoop horror stories.

[Airbrake]

They’re getting paid their old rate (the one that’s the lowest in the world for a 737 captain) until their new FO rate catches up, which it does at year 3. Huge gift in CA2 for them, I wouldn’t have given them jack shit.
Remember for a certain group of them this was never about pay. It was all about having the left seat and telling mommy you’re a 737 captain.

I have nothing against people who chose Swoop after the first few years. They chose to take the lower rate and ended up benefiting from it.

The worse WAWCONs should never have been agreed to, but they were. Once they were agreed to, it would be better to keep WestJetters in those seats than off the street 1500 hour instructors. I'm sure we've all heard the Swoop horror stories.

The worse conditions were not agreed to, they were provided to everyone via Mr Kaplan.

[dontcallmeshirley]

The worse conditions were not agreed to, they were provided to everyone via Mr Kaplan.

Yes, I don't know why that slipped my mind.

[rudder]

Perhaps the more relevant question(s) would be:

How fast to $100k?

$150k?
$200k?
$250k?
$300k?

Voluntary overtime and P/S doesn’t count.

[dontcallmeshirley]

Perhaps the more relevant question(s) would be:

How fast to $100k? 3 years

$150k? 5 years
$200k? As soon as you are captain (step 1)
$250k? Step 5 captain (basically as soon as you make captain)
$300k? Step 12 captain.

Voluntary overtime and P/S doesn’t count.

[CaptDukeNukem]

You don’t think bringing Swoop and Sunwing in under the WestJet AOC will decrease upgrade times? That’s a fair number of tails.

Also bringing in the equivalent number of pilots. Most likely with certain fences.

At least with the swoop integration a bunch of those ex captains are leaving to chase the 4 bars somewhere else

You may find yourself being one of those four bar pilots just trying to survive the industry one day. Many other things will happen that will throw wrenches in the industry. Economic events… wars… and even just the desire of people to move from one place to the other.

Many captains can’t take the pay cut to an FO position so yes, i expect some to chase another four bar position.

[maverick12]

Also bringing in the equivalent number of pilots. Most likely with certain fences.

At least with the swoop integration a bunch of those ex captains are leaving to chase the 4 bars somewhere else

You may find yourself being one of those four bar pilots just trying to survive the industry one day. Many other things will happen that will throw wrenches in the industry. Economic events… wars… and even just the desire of people to move from one place to the other.

Many captains can’t take the pay cut to an FO position so yes, i expect some to chase another four bar position.

What pay cut? They are pay protected

[co-joe]

Why would they leave if they're still getting paid captain rates?

Forced base change is a real fear, and forced downgrade, and you can't discount the distaste, for being an FO for the rest of your life (if you're over 55) to a bunch of people who hate your guts. No disrespect meant to current WS'ers, Swoop nearly put me out of a job, and I hate how Clive used them to whipsaw the WS pilot group. I'll be happy to see the last pink plane gone for good.

[Hangry]

Also bringing in the equivalent number of pilots. Most likely with certain fences.

At least with the swoop integration a bunch of those ex captains are leaving to chase the 4 bars somewhere else

You may find yourself being one of those four bar pilots just trying to survive the industry one day. Many other things will happen that will throw wrenches in the industry. Economic events… wars… and even just the desire of people to move from one place to the other.

Many captains can’t take the pay cut to an FO position so yes, i expect some to chase another four bar position.

There is a very large difference in chasing 4 bars and actively undercutting the collective bargaining of a pilot group.

I hope they enjoy the job hunt. Or not. Good riddance.

[AlanSutton]

Hello to everybody. Although I am aware that this is a dynamic objective, I'm interested to see what a reasonable upgrading timeline would entail for a new recruit today.
Obviously, there are many unknowable factors at play, but is 8 to 10 years still a reasonable estimate? Is there anything planned that could make this lessen? I am aware that a sizable Max 10 order has been placed, and I have read about the plans to increase YYC's flying capacity by twofold during the following ten years. What DOH today could, if they so want, hold a left seat? I realize that some folks might want to stay in the appropriate seat at their home base rather than commute.

[GTEO]

Thanks for the replies. It’s good to hear different perspectives from people on the inside. Fleet expansion will obviously be the biggest variable going forward, and 787 growth could change the timeline quite a bit. We will have to see how that plays out. But needless to say, I would never go in with a hard number in mind. I know that nine years could easily become much much longer. It’s just nice to have an idea of where things sit today.

[Oleo 4]

Its difficult to put a hard number on upgrade times as we state it in present day for variables that we can not control in the future. I know of a Captain who was to upgrade years ago at 5 years but ended up being 7 for organizational changes. Myself, I was to upgrade in 8 years but covid pushed that to 10. That was the high number as the upgrades post covid and post organizational restructuring have brought that number to 8-9 without any new fleet or additional bases etc. The 87 has brought on additional First Officers as the network expands (Narita) as we do not have a RP program on that aircraft. Many of our colleagues choose not to commute to the junior CA base (YYZ) which causes further variances in 8-9 years. Additionally, WestJet has never had many retirements, however this seems to be changing and will continue to develop as the 1996-2000 generation of pilots near the twilight of their careers.

O

[NTPilot]

Hello to everybody. Although I am aware that this is a dynamic objective, I'm interested to see what a reasonable upgrading timeline would entail for a new recruit today.
Obviously, there are many unknowable factors at play, but is 8 to 10 years still a reasonable estimate? Is there anything planned that could make this lessen? I am aware that a sizable Max 10 order has been placed, and I have read about the plans to increase YYC's flying capacity by twofold during the following ten years. What DOH today could, if they so want, hold a left seat? I realize that some folks might want to stay in the appropriate seat at their home base rather than commute.

Not only 10 years is reasonable but also it might increases.
Just remember, if you are a new FO in WJ:

1- your upgrade time will be delay by almost 400 Encore pilots that will flow here and upgrade before you cause their seniority number bit yours

2- all the Swoop pilots now are ahead of you for upgrade

3- the Sunwing merger is gonna be a battle and then you will see 250 hire FO in Sunwing with less on type experience than you can upgrade even before you do!

So yes I consider around 10-15 years now for upgrades!