Realistic upgrade time

[RockSalty]

Hello to everybody. Although I am aware that this is a dynamic objective, I'm interested to see what a reasonable upgrading timeline would entail for a new recruit today.
Obviously, there are many unknowable factors at play, but is 8 to 10 years still a reasonable estimate? Is there anything planned that could make this lessen? I am aware that a sizable Max 10 order has been placed, and I have read about the plans to increase YYC's flying capacity by twofold during the following ten years. What DOH today could, if they so want, hold a left seat? I realize that some folks might want to stay in the appropriate seat at their home base rather than commute.

Not only 10 years is reasonable but also it might increases.
Just remember, if you are a new FO in WJ:

1- your upgrade time will be delay by almost 400 Encore pilots that will flow here and upgrade before you cause their seniority number bit yours

2- all the Swoop pilots now are ahead of you for upgrade

3- the Sunwing merger is gonna be a battle and then you will see 250 hire FO in Sunwing with less on type experience than you can upgrade even before you do!

So yes I consider around 10-15 years now for upgrades!

Plenty of encore guys are leaving for AC instead of waiting for flow. There will not be 400 of them coming in ahead of you.

Plenty of swoop guys are quitting but even if they weren’t they were ahead of you for an upgrade at mainline regardless. We were already a single seniority list. As pink tails get painted teal it’ll just give upgrades to senior mainline FOs that have been waiting.

No merger goes through without someone getting pissed off, but at the end of the day if their seniority number on the merged list ends up higher than mine thanks to however ALPA handles it, it is what it is. I could give a rats ass if they’re 250 hours at sunwing right now.

[mantogasrsrwy]

Now that Swoop is gone the timeline is going to be a bit shorter. All those guys that took a pink left seat for less money than a senior FO at the mainline added at least a couple years to the upgrade time.

[JBI]

Not only 10 years is reasonable but also it might increases.
Just remember, if you are a new FO in WJ:

1- your upgrade time will be delay by almost 400 Encore pilots that will flow here and upgrade before you cause their seniority number bit yours

With the cancellation of the PTA, only the 260 Encore pilots on property that were hired on or before December 2022 will have a reserved seniority number. For what it's worth, Encore is now down to roughly 300 pilots total (down from a high of almost 600).

3- the Sunwing merger is gonna be a battle and then you will see 250 hire FO in Sunwing with less on type experience than you can upgrade even before you do!

It's honestly too early to tell what will happen with the merger and how it will affect upgrades in the next 5-10 years is anyone's guess. A while Sunwing did/does have some lower time new hire FOs, WestJet still has minimum upgrade requirements and it is a Management Right to set and impose reasonable experience requirements for upgrades. So while someone may have started with lower time than someone else (happens at WJ too), once they upgrade they will still have years and thousands of hours on the 737.

Before the new direction and the new contract I was hesitant to recommend a career at WestJet. However, now I do think that for some people it is an excellent opportunity. You will get a much quicker upgrade at Flair/Lynx and, to a certain extent, Porter. For many, that would be a better option. But depending on where you live (or want to live), your family situation, your scheduling requirements and the type of flying that you want to do, WestJet is a good spot for a career. Also, you need to remember that a 10th year WJ 737 FO is making more than 2nd year Flair/Lynx Captain and when that FO upgrades, they go to that YOS step on the Captain pay scale which is, very roughly, $100,000 more per year than a first year Flair/Lynx Captain. To be clear, that's not to disparage Flair/Lynx (just the opposite, they can be some great options), but the consideration and calculations are more complex than just "when will someone upgrade".

While I think retirements will slowly pick up at WJ, the reality is that there were a lot of pilots in their 30s hired between 2005-2015. The bulk of them will be Captains for another 20-25 years before they retire. Upgrades will primarily be as a result of growth as opposed to retirements. While the Sunwing merger will cause a little bit of stress amongst the pilots, in the long run I do think it sets WestJet up for more growth. Whether that leads to a significant drop in upgrade times is pretty tough to tell. My GUESS is that upgrades for the more junior bases for a pilot hired right now is in the 8-10 year range.

[shellkibbles]

Any updated info or thoughts on this?

What is the deal with WestJet upgrade times? They seem to have the longest upgrade time in North America and it still doesn't sound like its going to improve.

For those who say the upgrade time will decrease (ie less than ~10 years) can you please provide the data or assumptions you are basing these statements on? I keep hearing that people say there is a retirement bubble coming, but it all seems speculative to me and I still haven't seen any convincing data. For an upgrade to happen within 5 years you would need captains with less than 20 years of service to retire which is not going to happen. Growth seems off the table for now, focusing on leisure travel while Canadians are cutting spending, cargo seems weak, recruitment is closed, deliveries are very delayed and will probably be a trickle in replacement of the NG fleet.....

From my point of view I think the average upgrade time for a new hire today is about 10 years on average but doesn't factor in the Sunwing merger. If someone else sees the situation much differently I would like hear why.

Cheers,

[Canadaflyer46]

Any updated info or thoughts on this?

What is the deal with WestJet upgrade times? They seem to have the longest upgrade time in North America and it still doesn't sound like its going to improve.

For those who say the upgrade time will decrease (ie less than ~10 years) can you please provide the data or assumptions you are basing these statements on? I keep hearing that people say there is a retirement bubble coming, but it all seems speculative to me and I still haven't seen any convincing data. For an upgrade to happen within 5 years you would need captains with less than 20 years of service to retire which is not going to happen. Growth seems off the table for now, focusing on leisure travel while Canadians are cutting spending, cargo seems weak, recruitment is closed, deliveries are very delayed and will probably be a trickle in replacement of the NG fleet.....

From my point of view I think the average upgrade time for a new hire today is about 10 years on average but doesn't factor in the Sunwing merger. If someone else sees the situation much differently I would like hear why.

Cheers,

I think you sum it up well. Joining today you’ll have approx 800+ ahead of you waiting for an upgrade. Usually around 50 a year being upgraded, although I have heard as high as 80 projected. As you say, no growth planned currently with extra aircraft. Not much in the way of retirements. The Maxs coming will just replace older NGs. No new 87s and if anything reducing the FO positions available lately. This could all change once we get sold by Onyx of course and I am hoping to see some growth once there’s a stock price to be concerned about again. I certainly wouldn’t come to WJ expecting an upgrade, main reason people come here is because they live in Calgary and don’t want to commute which is a great reason. The scheduling can be fantastic here (you’ll still get your bad months) and guys have been getting off reserve quickly this year. Just don’t expect an upgrade for 10-15 years.

[JBI]

I think you sum it up well. Joining today you’ll have approx 800+ ahead of you waiting for an upgrade. Usually around 50 a year being upgraded, although I have heard as high as 80 projected. As you say, no growth planned currently with extra aircraft. Not much in the way of retirements. The Maxs coming will just replace older NGs. No new 87s and if anything reducing the FO positions available lately. This could all change once we get sold by Onyx of course and I am hoping to see some growth once there’s a stock price to be concerned about again. I certainly wouldn’t come to WJ expecting an upgrade, main reason people come here is because they live in Calgary and don’t want to commute which is a great reason. The scheduling can be fantastic here (you’ll still get your bad months) and guys have been getting off reserve quickly this year. Just don’t expect an upgrade for 10-15 years.

I agree with most of your calculations and your conclusions. While the company has been purposely coy with discussing how many of the new deliveries will simply be replacements verses growth I'd say I'm "slightly" more optimistic for growth.

We currently have 84 (89) 737 NGs total (according to plane spotters.net) 51 of those NGs were built/delivered between Feb 2009 and Nov 2017.

In the past at least, the Company has been following Leonardo Di Caprio's lead and generally has been getting rid of aircraft once they hit 20 years old.

The outstanding Max orders are 15 Max 8s and 42 Max 10s that are currently scheduled to be delivered by 2029. So in the next 6 years we have 35-ish aircraft to be retired, but 57 aircraft to be delivered and 51 NGs that are still less than 20 years old. That's a net gain of 20-25 aircraft.

Don't get me wrong, it's not the same type of growth as Porter's order for 75 E2s nor do we have the same retirement numbers as AC (plus they have new WB orders). Growth and upgrades at WJ WILL be slower than both places. But I do think there will be some growth.

[Bede]

This exercise is a fool's errand. The upgrade time for FO's who've been around for 9 years is about 9 years+/- 1 year. The farther down the list goes, the greater the uncertainty.

Keep in mind that, historically, the upgrade time is 15 years. For a 30 year career, 1/2 will be in the left seat, half in the right.

[Dronepiper]

What do you mean historically 15 years? Do you mean 15 years as an average across Canada? Do you mean 15 years at Air Canada?

Westjet upgrades (assuming most junior base), have never been more than 10 years. Wasn't Westjet a fairly quick upgrade for the first 10-15 years of it's operation?

[Bede]

What do you mean historically 15 years? Do you mean 15 years as an average across Canada? Do you mean 15 years at Air Canada?

Westjet upgrades (assuming most junior base), have never been more than 10 years. Wasn't Westjet a fairly quick upgrade for the first 10-15 years of it's operation?

Aviation industry wide, all of history.

If I recall the most junior Canadian FO at one time had 10 years in. No hiring for 10 years.

[onspeed]

Upgrades at AC are currently inside 2 yrs on the 220. Anyone looking to make money should be looking at AC and not WJ. Do some math on the wages your giving up over the 6-10 yrs longer you will sit in the right seat at WJ.

[AirCandida]

Upgrades at AC are currently inside 2 yrs on the 220. Anyone looking to make money should be looking at AC and not WJ. Do some math on the wages your giving up over the 6-10 yrs longer you will sit in the right seat at WJ.

That's true if money and only money was the deciding factor, and not life style, home location, family, affordability, etc.

[rudder]

This exercise is a fool's errand. The upgrade time for FO's who've been around for 9 years is about 9 years+/- 1 year. The farther down the list goes, the greater the uncertainty.

Keep in mind that, historically, the upgrade time is 15 years. For a 30 year career, 1/2 will be in the left seat, half in the right.

True. But that is more historical than projective.

There are pilots at AC that are going to do 35-40 years as CA. That’s right - CA pay for nearly 4 decades.

Right time - right place. Probably not the case for a pilot hired in 2024 at AC.

[Bede]

This exercise is a fool's errand. The upgrade time for FO's who've been around for 9 years is about 9 years+/- 1 year. The farther down the list goes, the greater the uncertainty.

Keep in mind that, historically, the upgrade time is 15 years. For a 30 year career, 1/2 will be in the left seat, half in the right.

True. But that is more historical than projective.

There are pilots at AC that are going to do 35-40 years as CA. That’s right - CA pay for nearly 4 decades.

Right time - right place. Probably not the case for a pilot hired in 2024 at AC.

True but there's also pilots at AC that are going 35-40 years as an FO- not because they have to obviously.

WRT the comment above about 2 year upgrade on A220. Yes that's correct but that's because no one senior wants to bid it, not because that's what the growth warrants.

For a more accurate comparison- look at an AC captain with a similar schedule to a WJ pilot. Then see how long they've been there.

[onspeed]

This is 100% the case, if you have the experience then AC is the place to be. Your career earnings at AC with 35 / 40 years in the left seat will massively outweigh what you can do at WJ.

This exercise is a fool's errand. The upgrade time for FO's who've been around for 9 years is about 9 years+/- 1 year. The farther down the list goes, the greater the uncertainty.

Keep in mind that, historically, the upgrade time is 15 years. For a 30 year career, 1/2 will be in the left seat, half in the right.

True. But that is more historical than projective.

There are pilots at AC that are going to do 35-40 years as CA. That’s right - CA pay for nearly 4 decades.

Right time - right place. Probably not the case for a pilot hired in 2024 at AC.

[canadian_aviator_4]

This exercise is a fool's errand. The upgrade time for FO's who've been around for 9 years is about 9 years+/- 1 year. The farther down the list goes, the greater the uncertainty.

Keep in mind that, historically, the upgrade time is 15 years. For a 30 year career, 1/2 will be in the left seat, half in the right.

True. But that is more historical than projective.

There are pilots at AC that are going to do 35-40 years as CA. That’s right - CA pay for nearly 4 decades.

Right time - right place. Probably not the case for a pilot hired in 2024 at AC.

True but there's also pilots at AC that are going 35-40 years as an FO- not because they have to obviously.

WRT the comment above about 2 year upgrade on A220. Yes that's correct but that's because no one senior wants to bid it, not because that's what the growth warrants.

For a more accurate comparison- look at an AC captain with a similar schedule to a WJ pilot. Then see how long they've been there.

It’s the debate pay vs schedule. You can’t have it all.

[rudder]

True. But that is more historical than projective.

There are pilots at AC that are going to do 35-40 years as CA. That’s right - CA pay for nearly 4 decades.

Right time - right place. Probably not the case for a pilot hired in 2024 at AC.

True but there's also pilots at AC that are going 35-40 years as an FO- not because they have to obviously.

WRT the comment above about 2 year upgrade on A220. Yes that's correct but that's because no one senior wants to bid it, not because that's what the growth warrants.

For a more accurate comparison- look at an AC captain with a similar schedule to a WJ pilot. Then see how long they've been there.

It’s the debate pay vs schedule. You can’t have it all.

A massive pay raise at AC without significant improvements in working conditions would be a fail.

20% of AC pilots are living the life. 80% work 15-18 days per month.

It shouldn’t be about robbing Peter to pay Paul. It should be about imposing penalties on the employer for inefficiencies in flying.

[vanislepilot]

This exercise is a fool's errand. The upgrade time for FO's who've been around for 9 years is about 9 years+/- 1 year. The farther down the list goes, the greater the uncertainty.

Keep in mind that, historically, the upgrade time is 15 years. For a 30 year career, 1/2 will be in the left seat, half in the right.

True. But that is more historical than projective.

There are pilots at AC that are going to do 35-40 years as CA. That’s right - CA pay for nearly 4 decades.

Right time - right place. Probably not the case for a pilot hired in 2024 at AC.

True but there's also pilots at AC that are going 35-40 years as an FO- not because they have to obviously.

WRT the comment above about 2 year upgrade on A220. Yes that's correct but that's because no one senior wants to bid it, not because that's what the growth warrants.

For a more accurate comparison- look at an AC captain with a similar schedule to a WJ pilot. Then see how long they've been there.

I’m sure a bunch of flat pay FOs are more than happy to 4x their salary and sacrifice having a “good schedule”.
If you are young enough with no kids schedule may not be a priority

[nohojob]

Or if you're old enough with no more kids...

[yowflyer23]

Are retirements going to pick up at Westjet at some point? i.e. would someone joining in the next couple years enjoy a nice bump in seniority in 10 years or is the pilot group quite young?

[Canadaflyer46]

Are retirements going to pick up at Westjet at some point? i.e. would someone joining in the next couple years enjoy a nice bump in seniority in 10 years or is the pilot group quite young?

Quite young, I think I read somewhere the average age was 47 but don’t quote me. Anyway we had 21 retirements in 2023. WestJet doesn’t have a retirement age and some guys do stay on into their 70s and enjoy the handbuilt skeds

[nohojob]

So I guess the 70 years old guys are not flying the line (instructors), unless they do Canada only ?

[UnderRDR]

So I guess the 70 years old guys are not flying the line (instructors), unless they do Canada only ?

They get hand built schedules to operate in Canada only. Or they abuse the system and bid reserve and rarely get called since they can only be called out for Canadian only flights.......

[CaptDukeNukem]

True. But that is more historical than projective.

There are pilots at AC that are going to do 35-40 years as CA. That’s right - CA pay for nearly 4 decades.

Right time - right place. Probably not the case for a pilot hired in 2024 at AC.

True but there's also pilots at AC that are going 35-40 years as an FO- not because they have to obviously.

WRT the comment above about 2 year upgrade on A220. Yes that's correct but that's because no one senior wants to bid it, not because that's what the growth warrants.

For a more accurate comparison- look at an AC captain with a similar schedule to a WJ pilot. Then see how long they've been there.

It’s the debate pay vs schedule. You can’t have it all.

Sure you can. But it’ll take 85% of your career to get there.

[josejimenes33]

The comparison of WJ upgrade time vs AC upgrade time is very interesting and I will take the Air France example to try to explain that this will not change in the current state.

Current upgrade time is around 8 to 10 years in Air France. Why? Because the company is great, the medium schedule and long haul schedule are great and based on social bidding too. There is no flat pay, either medium or long haul positions are desirable, because the schedule doesn't change with your seniority in one way or another. The normal flow (FO medium then long haul, then CA medium then long haul) is not an obstacle to lifestyle or doesn't imply any massive pay cut. The upgrade time has been steady for years except during high retirement phases.

Replace Air France with WestJet in my statement and you will find exaclty what currently happens in WJ. Same upgrade time bracket and same flow (modulo fleet size of course).

AC, in its current state, is exactly the opposite regarding choices and options depicted above. Flat pay in force, normal FO to CA flow bypassed because of it and because of seniority bidding still applying (and may not change in the future contract), there is no proper lifestyle and decent schedule in horizon within a 5 to 6 years timeframe.

At WJ we cannot have everything. If we had flat pay and/or seniority bidding we may have a fast upgrade time but crazy lifestyle.
At AC if they had social bidding, they would have a great lifestyle from the junior positions, but the upgrade time would be the same than the current WJ one.

Nothing is perfect, but everything is linked. You can't have super fast upgrade without proper stability and decent lifestyle (with the exception of an hypersonic growth).