Is AT a safe bet?

[Romain]

I recently received a contract to join Air Transat but am not sure if it would be a safe move.

On one side some of my colleagues who have friends working at AT say that they are really enjoying it and I heard that they plan to grow to 50 planes in the near future.
On another side, there's this $1.5 billion debt that scares me quite a bit as I'd like not to be out of a job in the next few years if it goes bad.
Anyone would have any input?

Thank you.

[braaap Braap]

I think they are slowly turning the ship around. I dont think any Liberal party in power will let them disappear. Ive heard they are really revamping and finding operational efficiencies. Obviously no one knows what the future holds but I could see a Canadian Aviation world where Porter and Transat join and we have 1) AC and Fam 2) Westjet/Onyx and 3) Transat/Porter, with whatever flavours of the month ULCC squabble over the rest.

[ant_321]

I’ve been hearing for 10 years, Transat will be bankrupt in no time, and they keep on trucking. The financials don’t look good but they seem to always find away to keep going.

[CaptDukeNukem]

I think they are slowly turning the ship around. I dont think any Liberal party in power will let them disappear. Ive heard they are really revamping and finding operational efficiencies. Obviously no one knows what the future holds but I could see a Canadian Aviation world where Porter and Transat join and we have 1) AC and Fam 2) Westjet/Onyx and 3) Transat/Porter, with whatever flavours of the month ULCC squabble over the rest.

I would agree with the entire statement. Transat looked in dire straights at one point but seem to have made a recovery. The codeshare between porter and Transat seems to be working nicely and will continue to expand.

Every time someone makes a career move it’s always a gamble.
The only thing certain in life is death and taxes.

[DanWEC]

In an article about a year ago a rep for the QC govt went on record, in writing, saying they would not let Transat fail.
However the Fed seems to be trying their best with double digit loan interest.

They're essentially breaking even while covering the interest, but I don't believe the structure is sustainable. It could take 20 years to pay the principal back while suffocating growth. I believe something has to change, I'm just not sure what. The nuclear would be another ACE holding-esque restructuring, but I assume repayment and credit negotiations would have to be exhausted.

It may be a different story in another 5-10-25 years, (There WILL be the next SARS, Covid, war, financial crisis, etc) but for now there is a such a demand for air travel, and such a rapid Canadian population influx, that there is a massive demand for lift. TS has existing infrastructure, pilots, slots, AC orders and standing lease agreements. Even if TS itself somehow crumbles under the debt repayment we'll all just be wearing another colour hat on the flight deck labour side almost immediately.

Lot of pros at TS; Good pay, unmatched schedule and QOL,
But.... it's a risk. At least with an AC furlough you know you're coming back eventually. Not sure if I could say the same for another TS furlough.

[WF9F]

Quebec has poured so much money into TS combined with the fact they owe a shit pile of money they won’t be allowed to go under. I’d have no fear in taking the contract if I was you. They probably have the best job security in the country, the nation of Quebec() won’t allow it to go under as has been stated before. They fly good equipment, have good routes and from what I hear from friends it’s a good place to work.

[altiplano]

What's the hourly rate at TS now?

12 year 320 CA?

How many days/month?

[Tbayer2021]

What's the hourly rate at TS now?

12 year 320 CA?

How many days/month?

The scales only go up to 11 years so a 12th year CA is making $262.22 as of April 30th of this year. Goes up to $268.78 next year and both 321 and 330 pilots get pair the same. As for schedule, a quick look at the captain side of things shows anywhere between 10-20 days a month mainly depending on whether they have a reduced block or not. Most with a normal block are between 12-16 days a month. This time of the year is mostly Europe, so a bunch of those work days are layovers in Europe. Yes I do count layovers as work.

[Tbayer2021]

What's the hourly rate at TS now?

12 year 320 CA?

How many days/month?

The scales only go up to 11 years so a 12th year CA is making $262.22 as of April 30th of this year. Goes up to $268.78 next year and both 321 and 330 pilots get pair the same. As for schedule, a quick look at the captain side of things shows anywhere between 10-20 days a month mainly depending on whether they have a reduced block or not. Most with a normal block are between 12-16 days a month. This time of the year is mostly Europe, so a bunch of those work days are layovers in Europe. Yes I do count layovers as work.

This being said, I had to go a fair ways down on the schedule since most of the top half has either reduced block, vacation or both.