And so it Begins
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And so it Begins
Spirit stops hiring.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/27/spirit- ... issue.html
For those that think this hiring cycle will continue for ever, some of us have seen this movie before. Consider picking a seat that can weather a downturn.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/27/spirit- ... issue.html
For those that think this hiring cycle will continue for ever, some of us have seen this movie before. Consider picking a seat that can weather a downturn.
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Re: And so it Begins
Enough bull.
How about we revisit this when a half dozen large carriers follow suit?? One is an indicator of NOTHING. How can you show a trend with ONE example?
Doom and gloom about the aviation industry goes back as far as the Wright Brothers. The fact is that the industry will be tens of thousands of pilots SHORT, and will be for the foreseeable future.
How about we revisit this when a half dozen large carriers follow suit?? One is an indicator of NOTHING. How can you show a trend with ONE example?
Doom and gloom about the aviation industry goes back as far as the Wright Brothers. The fact is that the industry will be tens of thousands of pilots SHORT, and will be for the foreseeable future.
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Re: And so it Begins
Westerncanuck wrote: ↑Fri Oct 27, 2023 10:37 am Spirit stops hiring.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/27/spirit- ... issue.html
For those that think this hiring cycle will continue for ever, some of us have seen this movie before. Consider picking a seat that can weather a downturn.
While I do agree that we are in for some sort of economic downturn, if we're not already in one. Let's try to be intellectually honest at the very least. Spirit's hiring suspension and poor Q3 results have more to with the PW engine problems plaguing their large NEO fleet. Nearly half of their NEO fleet, is projected to be grounded by December 2024 due to these engine problems. So we can see the obvious problem with continuing to hire.
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Re: And so it Begins
Last edited by rookiepilot on Sat Nov 04, 2023 8:54 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: And so it Begins
Rumour has it that WS no longer "understaffed" and will be slowing hiring.
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Re: And so it Begins
And if you read the fine print, it states they are going to increase capacity by 10% instead of previous forecast for up to 16% increase.rookiepilot wrote: ↑Fri Oct 27, 2023 3:38 pm Southwest.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/southwest-a ... -1.1989754
That's not a slowdown, that's a slower ramp up than originally planned.
In a slowdown, they would be talking about reducing capacity, not increasing it.
Re: And so it Begins
Rookie, this is why people don’t respond well to you, it’s ok to be right but you’re literally laughing about the potential for pilots to lose their livelihood!rookiepilot wrote: ↑Fri Oct 27, 2023 3:38 pm LOL.![]()
Southwest.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/southwest-a ... -1.1989754
Gonna get fun.
I’ve told people to grab a seat and hold on, they also laughed but I won’t gloat, I’ll still feel bad for them.
There are signs and yet some are still in the denial phase, if inflation doesn’t come down more the bank governors will not stop until they “cool” the economy, problem is, their efforts almost always go past the breaking point.
A lot of mortgages are up for renewal in the next year or so, people will not have the extra money for trips etc, I know I’ll have at least 1100 less per month to spend at the current rates. How many people can afford an extra 1100 on housing when everything else has also skyrocketed, we are in for a hell of a storm.
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Re: And so it Begins
Avater,cdnavater wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 6:03 amRookie, this is why people don’t respond well to you, it’s ok to be right but you’re literally laughing about the potential for pilots to lose their livelihood!rookiepilot wrote: ↑Fri Oct 27, 2023 3:38 pm LOL.![]()
Southwest.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/southwest-a ... -1.1989754
Gonna get fun.
I’ve told people to grab a seat and hold on, they also laughed but I won’t gloat, I’ll still feel bad for them.
There are signs and yet some are still in the denial phase, if inflation doesn’t come down more the bank governors will not stop until they “cool” the economy, problem is, their efforts almost always go past the breaking point.
A lot of mortgages are up for renewal in the next year or so, people will not have the extra money for trips etc, I know I’ll have at least 1100 less per month to spend at the current rates. How many people can afford an extra 1100 on housing when everything else has also skyrocketed, we are in for a hell of a storm.
That’s a phrase from the trading world. I apologize if it doesn’t take well with the employee world.
I am not laughing. I am well aware of the challenges likely coming, and am deeply concerned.
Do you know how much effort, to personal zero benefit, I have invested in warning people, (targeting young pilots here) exhorting them to prepare for what is (probably) coming, in every forum or community I have a presence over the last 2 years, to get their affairs in order?
Zero thank you’s here.
This isn’t my first rodeo, its my third major cycle, and this makes the other 2 look like a garden party.
Many have received this thoughtfully in other communities I am involved in (and I’m not the only one sounding warnings), but specifically here its largely been an arrogant response, which is either denial at work or bored retirees who are immune, cluttering up the threads with stupid comments.
I’ve learned its largely a fruitless exercise. Few want to learn. Anyway its too late now. Things are moving too fast.
Last edited by rookiepilot on Sat Oct 28, 2023 6:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: And so it Begins
LOL, what does that mean to you? In young person it’s laughing out loud not lots of love, this is what I was referring to.rookiepilot wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 6:31 amAvater,cdnavater wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 6:03 amRookie, this is why people don’t respond well to you, it’s ok to be right but you’re literally laughing about the potential for pilots to lose their livelihood!rookiepilot wrote: ↑Fri Oct 27, 2023 3:38 pm LOL.![]()
Southwest.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/southwest-a ... -1.1989754
Gonna get fun.
I’ve told people to grab a seat and hold on, they also laughed but I won’t gloat, I’ll still feel bad for them.
There are signs and yet some are still in the denial phase, if inflation doesn’t come down more the bank governors will not stop until they “cool” the economy, problem is, their efforts almost always go past the breaking point.
A lot of mortgages are up for renewal in the next year or so, people will not have the extra money for trips etc, I know I’ll have at least 1100 less per month to spend at the current rates. How many people can afford an extra 1100 on housing when everything else has also skyrocketed, we are in for a hell of a storm.
That’s a phrase from the trading world. I apologize if it doesn’t take well with the employee world.
I am not laughing. I am well aware of the challenges likely coming, and am deeply concerned.
Do you know how much effort, to personal zero benefit, I have invested in warning people, (targeting young pilots here) exhorting them to prepare for what is (probably) coming, in every forum or community I have a presence over the last 2 years, to get their affairs in order?
This isn’t my first rodeo, its my third major cycle, and this makes the other 2 look like a garden party.
Many have received this thoughtfully (and I’m not the only one sounding warnings), but specifically here its largely been an arrogant response, which is either denial at work or bored retirees who are immune, cluttering up the threads with stupid comments.
I’ve learned its largely a fruitless exercise. Few want to learn. Anyway its too late now. Things are moving too fast.
I agree however, it’s going to get fun but not the good kind of fun, the lots of people losing everything kind of fun, I’ve also been through a few of these cycles and I don’t know if this will completely get rid of the shortage but in Canada and the US if a couple companies fold, that should help the supply side out a little.
The US paying pilots 500.00/hr, that will surely come in to play when things take a turn!
Anyhow, try not to gloat when it does come crumbling down
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Re: And so it Begins
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Last edited by rookiepilot on Sat Nov 04, 2023 8:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: And so it Begins
Yep, definitely failed there, as a Captain, I can guarantee I would have done that differently. The flight would’ve been delayed until a proper method of accommodation was figured out, crappy customer service there!rookiepilot wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 6:52 am Then I read stuff like this while the crew watches.
This isn’t me. This has never been me. This entire crew……
Naw, Avater. I could care less what happens, when seeing this kinda attitude. “Not my job”
I won’t gloat, but I am out of the advice business, permanently, as I said months ago on this site.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.7010937
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Re: And so it Begins
.cdnavater wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 7:25 amYep, definitely failed there, as a Captain, I can guarantee I would have done that differently. The flight would’ve been delayed until a proper method of accommodation was figured out, crappy customer service there!rookiepilot wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 6:52 am Then I read stuff like this while the crew watches.
This isn’t me. This has never been me. This entire crew……
Naw, Avater. I could care less what happens, when seeing this kinda attitude. “Not my job”
I won’t gloat, but I am out of the advice business, permanently, as I said months ago on this site.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british- ... -1.7010937
Last edited by rookiepilot on Sat Nov 04, 2023 8:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: And so it Begins
There's a reason Spirit is the first one to stop hiring, and it has nothing to do with the world imploding. It's because passengers are choosing to fly on legacy carriers instead of ULCCs: https://onemileatatime.com/insights/air ... softening/
rookie has been issuing dire warnings about the economy since 2020, and so far none of them have come true. The prediction about $200 oil was made over a year ago, and it currently sits at $85. He's been probing corporate pilots to find out if business travel has died off as a sign of cutbacks by corporations that foresee a dim future, but it hasn't. If he keeps making predictions of a recession, eventually he'll be right, but one correct prediction out of a thousand does not make one omniscient.The consensus among legacy carriers is that demand remains strong, though fuel prices increasing significantly are a concern, and they also have big labor cost increases to pay for, including new pilot contracts. But they don’t seem to see a big drop-off in demand, and are still reporting strong bookings, including for long haul flights...
However, it seems that people are (perhaps oddly) booking away from ultra low cost carriers, and instead booking the legacy carriers. Is it because people are continuing to “treat” themselves to a better experience, or how does one reconcile that?
Over the summer, ultra low cost carriers underperformed because so much of the demand was centered around Europe. And now in the time of year where demand is less focused on long haul travel, they’re still struggling.
Is this just a really strange time for consumer behavior? Has the demand for ultra low cost carrier travel in the United States just changed permanently?...
The legacy airlines have largely reported record revenue, though also with record costs. This seems to come down to strong leisure demand, with travelers splurging on premium cabins, and also strong demand for long haul travel, including to Europe.
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Re: And so it Begins
I think I know exactly why it’s ULCC’s are getting hit first (it won’t stop there, though).
But why don’t you tell us your theory, SPR, being a wiser amateur economist than me.
But why don’t you tell us your theory, SPR, being a wiser amateur economist than me.

Re: And so it Begins
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while, so predictions can happen eventually.
I'm in construction and property, and doing just fine, always have been. A slowdown in growth isn't a downturn, and even a downturn doesn't mean everyone is suddenly homeless. Living life as a catastrophic oracle is no way to exist.
Some people forget that we learn from every event and recession, and there are an increasing number of measures and strategies in place to prevent collapsing.
Hasn't the housing bubble been bursting every year since 1992?
Ride whatever wave you can find and be happy instead of focusing on every possible potential negative and riding them down.
I'm in construction and property, and doing just fine, always have been. A slowdown in growth isn't a downturn, and even a downturn doesn't mean everyone is suddenly homeless. Living life as a catastrophic oracle is no way to exist.
Some people forget that we learn from every event and recession, and there are an increasing number of measures and strategies in place to prevent collapsing.
Hasn't the housing bubble been bursting every year since 1992?
Ride whatever wave you can find and be happy instead of focusing on every possible potential negative and riding them down.
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Re: And so it Begins
I’m in Toronto. Just finished a big Reno job.DanWEC wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 2:21 pm Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while, so predictions can happen eventually.
I'm in construction and property, and doing just fine, always have been. A slowdown in growth isn't a downturn, and even a downturn doesn't mean everyone is suddenly homeless. Living life as a catastrophic oracle is no way to exist.
Some people forget that we learn from every event and recession, and there are an increasing numbet of measures in place to prevent collapsing.
Hasn't the housing bubble been bursting every year since 1992?
Ride whatever wave you can find and be happy instead of focusing on every possible potential negative and riding them down.
Your comments conflict with every tradesman and supplier I’ve talked to. But do carry on.
And no, saying we’ve learned anything just tells me your level of knowledge. That’s a laugh.
This is what I’ve done for a living for nearly 30 years, so I must find the occasional nut once in awhile.
See Avater what I’m talking about, now?
Look, the world is what it is, not what we think it should be.
Re: And so it Begins
rookiepilot wrote: ↑Sat Oct 28, 2023 2:26 pm I’m in Toronto. Just finished a big Reno job.
Your comments conflict with every tradesman and supplier I’ve talked to. But do carry on.
And no, saying we’ve learned anything just tells me your level of knowledge. That’s a laugh.




I'm quite comfortable thank you, and it's getting better every year. The last 5 have been fantastic. Why don't you tell me more about my own industry?

Re: And so it Begins
I know some guys that worked for Dan part time during covid and let's just say I don't think he ever has problem with work coming in.
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Re: And so it Begins
[/quote]
rookie has been issuing dire warnings about the economy since 2020, and so far none of them have come true. The prediction about $200 oil was made over a year ago, and it currently sits at $85. He's been probing corporate pilots to find out if business travel has died off as a sign of cutbacks by corporations that foresee a dim future, but it hasn't. If he keeps making predictions of a recession, eventually he'll be right, but one correct prediction out of a thousand does not make one omniscient.
[/quote]
Rookie was pretty spot on about inflation spiking. That plus the squeeze of higher interest rates is not done impacting the economy Actually far from it and things will get worse for many people.
If you don’t think this is going to hit discretionary spending, which most travel is these days with business travel yet to recover, then you haven’t lived through multiple down cycles in this industry. Will the pilot shortage mitigate the impact for pilots? Probably, but I wouldn’t bet on it if you’re junior in a position.
rookie has been issuing dire warnings about the economy since 2020, and so far none of them have come true. The prediction about $200 oil was made over a year ago, and it currently sits at $85. He's been probing corporate pilots to find out if business travel has died off as a sign of cutbacks by corporations that foresee a dim future, but it hasn't. If he keeps making predictions of a recession, eventually he'll be right, but one correct prediction out of a thousand does not make one omniscient.
[/quote]
Rookie was pretty spot on about inflation spiking. That plus the squeeze of higher interest rates is not done impacting the economy Actually far from it and things will get worse for many people.
If you don’t think this is going to hit discretionary spending, which most travel is these days with business travel yet to recover, then you haven’t lived through multiple down cycles in this industry. Will the pilot shortage mitigate the impact for pilots? Probably, but I wouldn’t bet on it if you’re junior in a position.
Re: And so it Begins
The bulk of this is due to P&W engines on that particular model of 320 having major inspection issues, downing the airframes for lengthy periods.Westerncanuck wrote: ↑Fri Oct 27, 2023 10:37 am Spirit stops hiring.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/27/spirit- ... issue.html
For those that think this hiring cycle will continue for ever, some of us have seen this movie before. Consider picking a seat that can weather a downturn.
I believe they also we're being courted at one point, by one of the eastern low cost carriers (JetBlue?) when things fell through. ULCC is a tough business. Discriminating, price sensitive customers. Harsh working environment with high turnover for staff. I would imagine their customer base is also the most affected right now regarding credit issues due to insolvency.
Not surprised. A like most reiterate, until the major put a pause on hiring or growth - I wouldn't sound the general alarm just yet. Federal is still raising rates at this point...BoC has stopped for now.
Re: And so it Begins
So that means our dollar is going to take a hit. How will that be for travel and operating costs?
Re: And so it Begins
Unclear, I think with the end in sight and a return to normal interest rates being discussed (Q4/2024-Q2/2025), people will taper some of their heavier spending in the short, but continue to maintain a lifestyle, which includes travel.
The Baby Boomer generation, which has fairly vast wealth and is not affected by interest rate manipulation (debt is low to nil), is helping to maintain an even keel.
Regarding costs passed to airlines, they pay people a lot of money to analyze future costs regarding their respective operations. I imagine they've factored conservatively for exchange and interest rate changes.
Steady as she goes.
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Re: And so it Begins
The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Oh, wait: https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/air-c ... 58425.html