Timing the cycle

[altiplano]

I think the biggest issue here that pilots are forgetting is that regardless of the fact you've missed 10-15 years of income "gains" because of the market, everyone else is in the same boat.

Inflation has killed everyone. Every industry. Ask doctors.... same disparity in Canada vs US. It's no different.

Bullshit.

There isn't a group in this country or in this airline that is making basically the same they did 20 years ago. Not doctors, not bus drivers, not anyone else at this airline for sure.

ALPA is a great union. Do you think they would have let WS sign their deal if they didn't think it was the best they would get? This is why I've said multiple times now you will get an increase, but nothing like a "united" contract. The goalposts will shift but you'll be fighting this battle another 10-15 years. ALPA can only get you what they think they can, and it's literally shifting the posts on each negotiation.

ALPA doesn't "let" or "get" anything. They give resources and staff support. The pilot groups make their own choices.

Further, WJ Pilots are only on TA2 and their contract value wasn't solely dictated in wage gains. They scoped 2 airlines in that deal with Swoop and Sunwing. The value of that alone exceeds their wage gains.

You'll see between 12-20% (top end) based on my estimates on pattern bargaining. I highly doubt you'll see more. If Jazz can't even get their request approved, don't be surprised if the mother ship shuts things down a few weeks to keep the gains in that range.

So many ignorant statements here. Out of touch. "Jazz request approved" has nothing to do with us. Not to mention the fact that they're still locked in a 17 year contract and couldn't have been delivered nothing.

I'm not a pilot, nor am I a management schill. I do watch from the sidelines and analyze airlines financials.

Regardless of whether I'm on the picket line, the bar has been set with the WS negotiation. You're now in a downturn economically, and to expect anything more than what I've listed above will be surprising. I would be shocked if the flag carrier gave you larger gains than that (and would buy you dinner if they did)

You're clearly not on the sidelines as you are inserting yourself in discussion with a group of pilots. You make excuses for your reasoning, but really you're all over the map... first it's supply and demand, then it's labour mobility, then it's because every industry, then it's because what WestJet got, or what ALPA will let us do, now it's the recession.

You're talking straight out your @ss.

You clearly are a shill and appear to comment just for stuff like this. Zero to contribute beyond trying to sew doubt and tell us we aren't worth anything. Go back to your hole.

[RippleRock]

Unfortunately the game of "Whack a Mole" is just beginning. Just don't forget what they are, moles.

Our resolve is all that matters. If the informational pickets are any sign, we're well on our way.

See you all in YVR on Dec 8th.

[Goodman5]

I think the biggest issue here that pilots are forgetting is that regardless of the fact you've missed 10-15 years of income "gains" because of the market, everyone else is in the same boat.

Inflation has killed everyone. Every industry. Ask doctors.... same disparity in Canada vs US. It's no different.

ALPA is a great union. Do you think they would have let WS sign their deal if they didn't think it was the best they would get? This is why I've said multiple times now you will get an increase, but nothing like a "united" contract. The goalposts will shift but you'll be fighting this battle another 10-15 years. ALPA can only get you what they think they can, and it's literally shifting the posts on each negotiation.

The only way for you to get a massive increase is for Canada to have 3-4 incumbents who are *STRONG*. The only one who stands a chance in 3rd is Porter. Everyone else is already failing (Flair will be gone in 18 months if not sooner, Lynx likely pretty similar). Your best bet is to have shorter contracts (or ones you can reopen early).

You'll see between 12-20% (top end) based on my estimates on pattern bargaining. I highly doubt you'll see more. If Jazz can't even get their request approved, don't be surprised if the mother ship shuts things down a few weeks to keep the gains in that range.

Is it safe to say you’re not on the picket line?

I'm not a pilot, nor am I a management schill. I do watch from the sidelines and analyze airlines financials.

Regardless of whether I'm on the picket line, the bar has been set with the WS negotiation. You're now in a downturn economically, and to expect anything more than what I've listed above will be surprising. I would be shocked if the flag carrier gave you larger gains than that (and would buy you dinner if they did)

There it is folks. It’s the accountant, Michael Rousseau himself.

His try hard, wish-washy squabble and resentment for the pilot profession seaps through the screen. Must be him.

[PositiveRate27]

Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t accountant adamant that WS pilots would only get 3-4% on their last negots? By that metric I’d say his underestimate of 12-20% will put us right in the wheelhouse.

[flyingcanuck]

I just dont get why everyone says that WJ set the bar so we will be based off them.. so wait, WJ can set a bar but we cant? Makes no sense.

[PositiveRate27]

I just dont get why everyone says that WJ set the bar so we will be based off them.. so wait, WJ can set a bar but we cant? Makes no sense.

It’s a mentality that’s been ingrained by our own leadership for 2 decades. Those days are over.

[Fanblade]

I think the biggest issue here that pilots are forgetting is that regardless of the fact you've missed 10-15 years of income "gains" because of the market, everyone else is in the same boat.

Everyone is not in the same boat. We are trailing virtually everyone in Canada by a wide margin since 2003. No one. Not you. Not AC management. Not the government. No one is going to tell us the repeated losses we have endured over the last 20 years are permanent.

They get fixed right now. We are not asking.

We will not accept a penny less than we were worth 20 years ago. Full stop.

[Fanblade]

I just dont get why everyone says that WJ set the bar so we will be based off them.. so wait, WJ can set a bar but we cant? Makes no sense.

They are talking pattern bargaining and comparisons. WJ is what some people see as a proper comparable vs US carriers. All the Canadian legacy airlines merged into a single entity called Air Canada. Now those with a vested interest want to compare us to non legacy Canadian Airlines. Hold us to comparing to startups because there is no legacy left to compare with. It’s a strategy to keep Canada dislocated from overall global pilot wages. It’s a strategy to keep pilot wages in Canada depressed.

What these people don’t realize is there is another comparable. Ourselves from 2003 inflation adjusted to today. We are the only legacy. We are the only Canadian comparable.

There will be a strike, and long one, if 2003 wages inflation adjusted to today is not regained at a minimum.

[Fanblade]

I'm not a pilot, nor am I a management schill. I do watch from the sidelines and analyze airlines financials.

I read a bunch of your posts on the WJ forum during their run up to a strike. I’m not convinced the statement of who you are is completely transparent. You know an awful lot about Porter and it’s strategy. You interject into AC and WJ only during negotiations. Not just pilots. I suspect you will be here trying to antagonize the situation for the duration. (He will be folks. He has a history. Shows up to brow beat pilots during negotiations)

One of accountants early posts.

4 posts in 2 years doesn't really matter. I lurk and read all here, and have family who have worked at AC and been part of the messes since the 70's.

Too many strikes to count!

So what’s your angle? Porter is proactively raising pilot pay at to avoid a union. Unions at other airlines keep forcing you to benchmark higher? You don’t like it?

One Deluce brother in particular has a long history of participating on anonymous boards. Your writing style is similar.

Against my better judgment.

For the analyst in you. AC can afford to pay us our 2003 wages. If Porter has to pay a comparable wage? Good! The profession as a whole in Canada has had enough. We demand market rates. If you don’t like it? It means we are on the right track.

Actual potential cost impact not overly burdensome by our calculations
Our analysis suggests that even a significant pay increase for its pilots will be manageable for Air Canada. Based on Air Canada’s employee count as of the end of Q2/23, the ~4,500 pilots that AC employs account for ~12.5% of the total workforce (noting that pilot wages currently are likely well above the average/employee). Furthermore, based on our analysis of financials at U.S. legacy airlines, we estimate that Air Canada’s pilots make up 25-30% of the total wage bill. In addition, salaries, wages and benefits make up ~20.5% of the airline’s total expenses so if pilots are 30% of labour costs, they would account for ~6% of total Air Canada costs. If we assume that AC’s pilots receive a similar pay increase to WestJet’s pilots (24% over four years), the total potential increase in costs for Air Canada would be 1.5% in total (or 0.375%/year). Even at a 40% increase in pay rates, we still calculate a modest 2.5% increase in total costs for Air Canada (or 0.625%/year over four years).
In dollar terms, a 1.5% increase in costs for Air Canada (using our 2023 forecast as a baseline) would be ~$282 million (over four years). To put this in perspective, a $282 million cost swing would be the equivalent to a ~5% change in the price of jet fuel for Air Canada, which is a price swing experienced regularly for the airline industry

[rigpiggy]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/l ... c1bf&ei=13

Don't worry the liberals will step in...I would give a strike max 10 days before queen justine would legislate pilots back to work

[Dash.Trash]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/l ... c1bf&ei=13

Don't worry the liberals will step in...I would give a strike max 10 days before queen justine would legislate pilots back to work

Seriously?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?si=EDYeBfsV ... e=youtu.be

“Focus on the table, focus on the table, there’s a reason for that, it’s where the deals get done. And I need them focusing on that. I don’t need them focusing on hiring people to appear on TV shows to tell me to get ahead with back to work legislation. I think I proved in BC, I’m not going to listen to that.”


I would much rather have the liberals/NDP in power while we are in negotiations than any conservatives… Lisa Raitt anyone?

[Fanblade]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/l ... c1bf&ei=13

Don't worry the liberals will step in...I would give a strike max 10 days before queen justine would legislate pilots back to work

Seriously?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?si=EDYeBfsV ... e=youtu.be

“Focus on the table, focus on the table, there’s a reason for that, it’s where the deals get done. And I need them focusing on that. I don’t need them focusing on hiring people to appear on TV shows to tell me to get ahead with back to work legislation. I think I proved in BC, I’m not going to listen to that.”


I would much rather have the liberals/NDP in power while we are in negotiations than any conservatives… Lisa Raitt anyone?

Thanks for posting DT. I was about to myself. Rigpiggy isn’t paying attention.

As for the conservatives? Remember what happened under Harper was deemed illegal and eventually the right to strike became a constitutional right as a result. It should be a one off that has now been addressed.

Yes Doug Ford did attempt an end run with the notwithstanding clause but he eventually backed down. He and Harper have both left people wondering if a future Federal Conservative government would ignore the law once again. The apprehension is understandable.

Fact is if we think a politician will ignore the law? Don’t vote for them.

From a legal perspective. The whole issue has been challenged and resolved.

[JHR]

Well I hope that the hundreds of pilots who lowered wages in Canada by accepting flat pay will finally be able to band together and make amends! Hold the line!

[PositiveRate27]

Well I hope that the hundreds of pilots who lowered wages in Canada by accepting flat pay will finally be able to band together and make amends! Hold the line!

It’s more like thousands… close to 3/4 of the airline at this point.

[Dash.Trash]

Well I hope that the hundreds of pilots who lowered wages in Canada by accepting flat pay will finally be able to band together and make amends! Hold the line!

Interesting strategy blaming people who came here hoping to make things better, but no blame for those who negotiated and defended flat pay for over a decade.

I guarantee you a not insignificant number of pilots who’ve stood on the picket line and volunteered over the past couple months have endured flat pay. Yet no sign of our previous “leaders” who put us in this mess to begin with.

[PositiveRate27]

Well I hope that the hundreds of pilots who lowered wages in Canada by accepting flat pay will finally be able to band together and make amends! Hold the line!

Interesting strategy blaming people who came here hoping to make things better, but no blame for those who negotiated and defended flat pay for over a decade.

I guarantee you a not insignificant number of pilots who’ve stood on the picket line and volunteered over the past couple months have endured flat pay. Yet no sign of our previous “leaders” who put us in this mess to begin with.

It’s a talking point that’s rapidly going out of existence. Classic blame the victim to distract from the solution.

We are no longer having it.

[JHR]

Flatpayers had a choice. Not really victims. I would wager every pilot over the last 20 years took a paycut to join AC.

[PositiveRate27]

Flatpayers had a choice. Not really victims. I would wager every pilot over the last 20 years took a paycut to join AC.

Anyone who passes on arguably the most lucrative career in the country because of low pay in the first 4 years of a 30-35 year career doesn’t understand basic math. Voting with your feet sounds cute but when you’re on the outside looking in 25 years later your moral superiority won’t pay the bills.

The reality is that over the last 20 years, flat pay has been locked in for 10 of them by an inept and corrupt pilot association that has gladly eaten its young. Jazz can’t attract anyone but 250 hour college grads. They are parking planes left right and centre. Do you see them making substantial gains outside of bargaining? No, you don’t, because the idea of supply and demand is too simplistic in the aviation sector in Canada with our ATPL rules. Substantial wage increases have to be made during full bargaining with a galvanized pilot group and strong leadership. We haven’t had full bargaining here since 2014. For any pilot hired in 2014 ACPA threw away 1/3rd of their career for 2% per year. Any pilot that has opted to sit it out and “vote with their feet” waiting for AC to improve will now have about 3000 pilots ahead of them on the seniority list and given up about 10 years of payscale and pension contributions. Pretty stupid choice.

What you’re witnessing now is the revolt of thousands of pilots who took it on the chin coming here knowing that the contract would one day expire and they would have to stand arm and arm to make substantial improvements.

ACPA is history. Flat pay is history.

The time is now.

[Fanblade]

Flatpayers had a choice. Not really victims. I would wager every pilot over the last 20 years took a paycut to join AC.

A little history.

Flat pay or other iterations of it have been around AC for over 60 years. Not 20. Pilots decades retired now endured it.

It was 2 years. Was introduced at a time when AC was taking pilots straight out of college or flying schools and into Second Officer positions. At a time when if you were late 20’s? You were too old. It was considered a type of apprenticeship.

When the industry changed from 3 crew to 2 crew starting in the 1980’s a glut of pilots took place. Layoffs took place. The joke being you needed a lunar landing to get hired. 5000 hrs to fly a Navaho. Turbine time? Good luck.

In the 70’s age discrimination became a thing and AC started hiring a few old men in their 30’s. In the late 80’s AC stopped hiring low time pilots because they were going directly into the right seat. Everything changed to hiring experience rather than apprenticeship. But new hire flat pay didn’t change with it to recognize the experience.

In 2012 ACPA negotiated and later had an arbitrator ram down their throat, a doubling of flat pay to 4 years.

Over the last 60 years new hire pay evolved from an apprenticeship period of two years for young inexperienced aviators in their early 20’s to four years for very experienced, direct entry Captain capable, pilots in their 30’s with families.

There was a time when an argument for flat pay could be made. By the late 1980’s that argument was gone yet new hire pay persisted. By 2012 it became an absolute abomination that desperately needs to be put 6 feet under.

[EPR]

100% accurate Fanblade!

[accountant]

Flatpayers had a choice. Not really victims. I would wager every pilot over the last 20 years took a paycut to join AC.

Anyone who passes on arguably the most lucrative career in the country because of low pay in the first 4 years of a 30-35 year career doesn’t understand basic math. Voting with your feet sounds cute but when you’re on the outside looking in 25 years later your moral superiority won’t pay the bills.

The reality is that over the last 20 years, flat pay has been locked in for 10 of them by an inept and corrupt pilot association that has gladly eaten its young. Jazz can’t attract anyone but 250 hour college grads. They are parking planes left right and centre. Do you see them making substantial gains outside of bargaining? No, you don’t, because the idea of supply and demand is too simplistic in the aviation sector in Canada with our ATPL rules. Substantial wage increases have to be made during full bargaining with a galvanized pilot group and strong leadership. We haven’t had full bargaining here since 2014. For any pilot hired in 2014 ACPA threw away 1/3rd of their career for 2% per year. Any pilot that has opted to sit it out and “vote with their feet” waiting for AC to improve will now have about 3000 pilots ahead of them on the seniority list and given up about 10 years of payscale and pension contributions. Pretty stupid choice.

What you’re witnessing now is the revolt of thousands of pilots who took it on the chin coming here knowing that the contract would one day expire and they would have to stand arm and arm to make substantial improvements.

ACPA is history. Flat pay is history.

The time is now.

The irony is that in the 70's and one could even say the 80's, pilots handled far more of the manual flying than they do now.

You have zero sympathy from the public / etc when now the computers do most. You have no sympathy from those with 20-30 years of experience.

If anything, this is why those with so much experience deserve to have the increases, and you "earn your dues" in the first 5-10 years. Is flat pay for year 1-4 even an issue when you make massive amounts in your later years? No different than most professions. Pay your dues, bide your time, move up and earn the rewards.

[cheeky cough]

Ignorant post.


ig·no·rant
/ˈiɡnərənt/
adjective
lacking knowledge or awareness in general; uneducated or unsophisticated.
"he was told constantly that he was ignorant and stupid"

[vanislepilot]

Flatpayers had a choice. Not really victims. I would wager every pilot over the last 20 years took a paycut to join AC.

Anyone who passes on arguably the most lucrative career in the country because of low pay in the first 4 years of a 30-35 year career doesn’t understand basic math. Voting with your feet sounds cute but when you’re on the outside looking in 25 years later your moral superiority won’t pay the bills.

The reality is that over the last 20 years, flat pay has been locked in for 10 of them by an inept and corrupt pilot association that has gladly eaten its young. Jazz can’t attract anyone but 250 hour college grads. They are parking planes left right and centre. Do you see them making substantial gains outside of bargaining? No, you don’t, because the idea of supply and demand is too simplistic in the aviation sector in Canada with our ATPL rules. Substantial wage increases have to be made during full bargaining with a galvanized pilot group and strong leadership. We haven’t had full bargaining here since 2014. For any pilot hired in 2014 ACPA threw away 1/3rd of their career for 2% per year. Any pilot that has opted to sit it out and “vote with their feet” waiting for AC to improve will now have about 3000 pilots ahead of them on the seniority list and given up about 10 years of payscale and pension contributions. Pretty stupid choice.

What you’re witnessing now is the revolt of thousands of pilots who took it on the chin coming here knowing that the contract would one day expire and they would have to stand arm and arm to make substantial improvements.

ACPA is history. Flat pay is history.

The time is now.

The irony is that in the 70's and one could even say the 80's, pilots handled far more of the manual flying than they do now.

You have zero sympathy from the public / etc when now the computers do most. You have no sympathy from those with 20-30 years of experience.

If anything, this is why those with so much experience deserve to have the increases, and you "earn your dues" in the first 5-10 years. Is flat pay for year 1-4 even an issue when you make massive amounts in your later years? No different than most professions. Pay your dues, bide your time, move up and earn the rewards.

Pay dues you say?
Do you accept cash, credit or AMEX points?
Is there a No tip option or am I forced to fork over 18,25, or 35%?

[RippleRock]

Why? Why are you guys engaging a Muppet?

Accountant reminds me of Dr. Bunsen Hunnydew's sidekick Beaker. Likely looks the same, and sounds come out, but its just gibberish.

[PositiveRate27]

Flatpayers had a choice. Not really victims. I would wager every pilot over the last 20 years took a paycut to join AC.

Anyone who passes on arguably the most lucrative career in the country because of low pay in the first 4 years of a 30-35 year career doesn’t understand basic math. Voting with your feet sounds cute but when you’re on the outside looking in 25 years later your moral superiority won’t pay the bills.

The reality is that over the last 20 years, flat pay has been locked in for 10 of them by an inept and corrupt pilot association that has gladly eaten its young. Jazz can’t attract anyone but 250 hour college grads. They are parking planes left right and centre. Do you see them making substantial gains outside of bargaining? No, you don’t, because the idea of supply and demand is too simplistic in the aviation sector in Canada with our ATPL rules. Substantial wage increases have to be made during full bargaining with a galvanized pilot group and strong leadership. We haven’t had full bargaining here since 2014. For any pilot hired in 2014 ACPA threw away 1/3rd of their career for 2% per year. Any pilot that has opted to sit it out and “vote with their feet” waiting for AC to improve will now have about 3000 pilots ahead of them on the seniority list and given up about 10 years of payscale and pension contributions. Pretty stupid choice.

What you’re witnessing now is the revolt of thousands of pilots who took it on the chin coming here knowing that the contract would one day expire and they would have to stand arm and arm to make substantial improvements.

ACPA is history. Flat pay is history.

The time is now.

The irony is that in the 70's and one could even say the 80's, pilots handled far more of the manual flying than they do now.

You have zero sympathy from the public / etc when now the computers do most. You have no sympathy from those with 20-30 years of experience.

If anything, this is why those with so much experience deserve to have the increases, and you "earn your dues" in the first 5-10 years. Is flat pay for year 1-4 even an issue when you make massive amounts in your later years? No different than most professions. Pay your dues, bide your time, move up and earn the rewards.

Sympathy from the public doesn’t matter one iota. This is between us and our employer. We are responsible for the same amount of lives and arguably far more liabilities than ever before. One lapse in judgment, one single off day and we can influence the company’s bottom line far more than any other employee… like say… an accountant. We have to be on every single day. That is what we are being compensated for and that is why we won’t settle for a dollar less than our predecessors.