Industry Future

[CanuckPilot19]

Hello everyone,

I'm currently.about to finish off my CPL with all my ratings and I've been starting to ponder about the short to medium term future of the aviation industry in North America. I understand that a "experienced pilot shortage" is generally what we've been dealing with for the last several years (not including COVID) and the regionals are generally the ones having trouble putting pilots in seats. I've been seeing a few indicators that definately has me concerned for the future. In particular the state of the Canadian economy - it has definately seen better days and we may even be looking at some sort of a recession. (if we aren't already in one) As we get deeper and deeper into this economic downturn might this have a similar impact on the amount of business for commercial carriers of both cargo and passengers?

Obviously there has been some less than stellar news coming out of the USA as well (ex cargo shortage, possible Fedex layoffs) and while I understand the aviation industry in the USA and Canada could not be more different, such headlines can't be taken as positive news.

I wondered if anyone who has experience in the airline/commercial operation world could give their thoughts as to where we might be headed and what the future could look like, especially for those just about to start their careers like myself.

[Fly0nTheWall]

Hello everyone,

I'm currently.about to finish off my CPL with all my ratings and I've been starting to ponder about the short to medium term future of the aviation industry in North America. I understand that a "experienced pilot shortage" is generally what we've been dealing with for the last several years (not including COVID) and the regionals are generally the ones having trouble putting pilots in seats. I've been seeing a few indicators that definately has me concerned for the future. In particular the state of the Canadian economy - it has definately seen better days and we may even be looking at some sort of a recession. (if we aren't already in one) As we get deeper and deeper into this economic downturn might this have a similar impact on the amount of business for commercial carriers of both cargo and passengers?

Obviously there has been some less than stellar news coming out of the USA as well (ex cargo shortage, possible Fedex layoffs) and while I understand the aviation industry in the USA and Canada could not be more different, such headlines can't be taken as positive news.

I wondered if anyone who has experience in the airline/commercial operation world could give their thoughts as to where we might be headed and what the future could look like, especially for those just about to start their careers like myself.

One thing I've come to learn about aviation, there will be downturns and there will be layoffs. It's inevitable. When or where that happens is the million dollar question. If anyone can predict that, I'd suggest you quit flying and start up a lucrative career in aviation consulting . Honestly, if you enjoy flying and want to make a career of it, just get started and work hard at it. Things like networking, staying on good terms with employers when you leave places, and generally just being a half decent human being to work with helps when things go south. For example, you might be bummed to be on the furlough list at your 704/705 operator, but if that 702/703 operator really liked you, they might be inclined to let you work for them again for a bit until you get called back. Nothing comes easy, but also the downturns never last forever...unless we manage to slip into a infinite recession

[cdnavater]

In addition to what was said, even if there is a recession near term and layoffs, I believe that it will ramp back up faster than past downturns, we definitely have a shortage of pilots and it would take an extended catastrophic recession with multiple failures to change that. Even a two year recession won’t suddenly have this massive supply of pilots, we are only see a couple hundred new pilots per year.

I wondered if anyone who has experience in the airline/commercial operation world could give their thoughts as to where we might be headed and what the future could look like, especially for those just about to start their careers like myself.

[Red_Comet]

There is always risk in involved in any career, but aviation is particularly sensitive to economic cycles. That said, most big consulting firms seem to be predicting that the aviation industry will be healthy and growing going forward as the demand for travel rises globally over time. I do think this is the likely future, so regardless of what happens in Canada, your skills will be in demand.

I also don't think we'll ever have the glut of pilots we had in the past as the era of large scale military pilot training is over. Also, the cost of training keeps going up, so that is not going to entice pilots either. Furthermore, many forget the stringent medical requirements that are going to keep most out of the profession.

I would say the greatest sources of risk as a pilot would be the looming carbon credit limits, which would single-handedly crater the passenger airline industry by effectively limiting air travel to the upper classes. There is also the inevitable transition away from the US dollar that is currently happening throughout most of the non-Western world, which will have radical implications for the western economies.

Are there stable, better paying jobs? Absolutely. I decided against aviation as a career in my youth due to the terrible working conditions pilots had in the preceding decades. So from that perspective, it only seems to be getting better as the supply issue is finally resulting in measurable improvements.