EXPECTED NUMBER OF RETIREES AT AC.

[a2btrail]

When were the last few hiring booms at AC?

2007

2011 - 2012

2016 - 2019

2022 - present [mass hiring rate to end mostly by end of next year].

[Canadaflyer46]

If you’re applying to AC now as this latest hiring boom starts to wind down then I very much doubt you’ll see WB captain. But this is Canada, you won’t see that anywhere unless you got in the door a long time ago (excluding Cargojet who are the lowest paid in the world currently).
That’s not to say you can’t get some seniority and get a great gig eventually as NB captain or WB FO picking your days off and layovers. WB captain is not the be all and end all.

[WillC]

We have a website made by ALPA to get an estimate for the upgrade times. I was hired a year ago and can be 330 WB captain, bottom reserve, in 24 years from now. 777 captain bottom reserve 26 years from now. For narrow body, 220 captain on reserve in 3 years and a block in 8 years. That's for the YYZ base, more for the other bases.

[Inverted2]

All fine if you want to spend the final years of your career on reserve with a lousy schedule.

Depends if you value the bigger pay over quality time away from work.

[Core]

We have a website made by ALPA to get an estimate for the upgrade times. I was hired a year ago and can be 330 WB captain, bottom reserve, in 24 years from now. 777 captain bottom reserve 26 years from now. For narrow body, 220 captain on reserve in 3 years and a block in 8 years. That's for the YYZ base, more for the other bases.

I don't know if that too accurate. Isn't 330 capt today going about 2010?

[jpilot77]

We have a website made by ALPA to get an estimate for the upgrade times. I was hired a year ago and can be 330 WB captain, bottom reserve, in 24 years from now. 777 captain bottom reserve 26 years from now. For narrow body, 220 captain on reserve in 3 years and a block in 8 years. That's for the YYZ base, more for the other bases.

I don't know if that too accurate. Isn't 330 capt today going about 2010?

Junior 330 CA is 2203 in YUL, 1933 in YYZ.

[vanislepilot]

We have a website made by ALPA to get an estimate for the upgrade times. I was hired a year ago and can be 330 WB captain, bottom reserve, in 24 years from now. 777 captain bottom reserve 26 years from now. For narrow body, 220 captain on reserve in 3 years and a block in 8 years. That's for the YYZ base, more for the other bases.

How accurate is this? Does this assume everyone stays on all the way to 65 and 0 fleet expansion?
I mean dayum. some of these planes won’t exist in 26 years.
how long to hold ES-30 Captain? LOL

[jpilot77]

We have a website made by ALPA to get an estimate for the upgrade times. I was hired a year ago and can be 330 WB captain, bottom reserve, in 24 years from now. 777 captain bottom reserve 26 years from now. For narrow body, 220 captain on reserve in 3 years and a block in 8 years. That's for the YYZ base, more for the other bases.

How accurate is this? Does this assume everyone stays on all the way to 65 and 0 fleet expansion?
I mean dayum. some of these planes won’t exist in 26 years.
how long to hold ES-30 Captain? LOL

Not sure if it calculates average age of retirement and other factors (percentage of pilots that go on long term disability etc…) it also can’t account for expansion.

[Hysteria]

We have a website made by ALPA to get an estimate for the upgrade times. I was hired a year ago and can be 330 WB captain, bottom reserve, in 24 years from now. 777 captain bottom reserve 26 years from now. For narrow body, 220 captain on reserve in 3 years and a block in 8 years. That's for the YYZ base, more for the other bases.

8 years to hold a line as a 220 CA? what are upgrade times on 320/737? anticipate reserve life on those too?

[WillC]

About that website: The career planner uses your seniority number, date of birth, date of hire, planned retirements, and published fleet plan to project the positions available to you at any point in your future career. There are some factors that can not be taken into account, but it gives a general idea of what to expect.

For the 320, 5 years for reserve and 9 for a block
For the 737, 6 years for reserve and 10 for a block.

And that's for me, who was hired almost a year ago.

[Airbusses]

Well a guy from my PIT is holding a block on the 220 CA list, hired early 2018.

[Airbusses]

I'm a block holder, CA list as well.

[Hangry]

Some real inaccurate info on this thread. It does not take years and years to hold a block as a NB captain.

A good block maybe.

[NotDirty!]

Some real inaccurate info on this thread. It does not take years and years to hold a block as a NB captain.

A good block maybe.

It’s a prediction, which probably errs on the side of caution. I held a block as a NB captain in YYZ, less than 5.5 years after I came to AC, and would have likely done so much sooner, had it not been for COVID.
That being said, there are now 2000+ pilots junior to me, so a new hire today has a lot further to climb to get to where I am. When I started in early 2018, there were fewer than 3800 pilots on the list. Now it’s up to 5300ish?
The latest bid shows upgrades going to pilots hired a year ago… so things are still looking good… but I’m not sure that’s sustainable for the next new hire 1000 numbers junior to them.

[NotDirty!]

Some real inaccurate info on this thread. It does not take years and years to hold a block as a NB captain.

A good block maybe.

I’m not sure a “good” block exists on most of our NB fleets… even the most senior pilots get a mixed bag of flying!

I suppose part of the question is what constitutes a “good” block? Different pilots have different priorities, so what I consider good may be terrible for the next guy!

[Ash Ketchum]

I wouldn't be suprised if new hires being hired today have to wait 4-5 years to upgrade unless flat pay goes away in the new contract and new hire FOs make good money. At the moment, it seems that understandably most new hires are choosing the junior upgrade route to get off flat pay even though junior NB captain comes with a tough lifestyle.

[flying4dollars]

We have a website made by ALPA to get an estimate for the upgrade times. I was hired a year ago and can be 330 WB captain, bottom reserve, in 24 years from now. 777 captain bottom reserve 26 years from now. For narrow body, 220 captain on reserve in 3 years and a block in 8 years. That's for the YYZ base, more for the other bases.

This isn't very accurate. I was hired 15 months ago and am holding 320 CA. At 11 months in I could have held 220 CA. Widebody will be in 2030's according to crewsware which seems a bit more accurate but who knows what the fleet will look like by then.

[flying4dollars]

Some real inaccurate info on this thread. It does not take years and years to hold a block as a NB captain.

A good block maybe.

I’m not sure a “good” block exists on most of our NB fleets… even the most senior pilots get a mixed bag of flying!

I suppose part of the question is what constitutes a “good” block? Different pilots have different priorities, so what I consider good may be terrible for the next guy!

Accurate!

[DanWEC]

We have a website made by ALPA to get an estimate for the upgrade times. I was hired a year ago and can be 330 WB captain, bottom reserve, in 24 years from now. 777 captain bottom reserve 26 years from now. For narrow body, 220 captain on reserve in 3 years and a block in 8 years. That's for the YYZ base, more for the other bases.

I don't know if that too accurate. Isn't 330 capt today going about 2010?

Junior 330 CA is 2203 in YUL, 1933 in YYZ.

With that grasp of numbers you could work for Freeland!

[FatPilot]

We are going to move to single pilot airplanes... everyone will be a Captain.

[CaptDukeNukem]

We are going to move to single pilot airplanes... everyone will be a Captain.

Don’t forget electric powered

[bob99]

We have a website made by ALPA to get an estimate for the upgrade times. I was hired a year ago and can be 330 WB captain, bottom reserve, in 24 years from now. 777 captain bottom reserve 26 years from now. For narrow body, 220 captain on reserve in 3 years and a block in 8 years. That's for the YYZ base, more for the other bases.

How accurate is this? Does this assume everyone stays on all the way to 65 and 0 fleet expansion?
I mean dayum. some of these planes won’t exist in 26 years.
how long to hold ES-30 Captain? LOL

The seniority projections assume a retirement age of 65, and DO NOT take into account any potential early retirements, terminations, resignations, or deaths. It also obviously doesn't account for future expansion.

[Daniel Cooper]

500

[Say Altitude]

I've heard the Jan 2024 seniority list will only show a change, on average, of 88 numbers.

[jpilot77]

Don’t forget COVID caused a lot of pilots who were due to retire from 2020-2025ish to pull the plug early. The ALPA career progression app had retirements going back up in 2026 or 27.