Porter/Air Transat merger prediction

[cdnavater]

As the title says, I’m predicting Porter and Air Transat merger, discuss.
The recent (edit) joint venture announcement and rumour of AT acquiring 787 has me pondering this possibility. The goal of the joint venture that replaced the codeshare was to fill each other’s airplanes with connecting passengers which is perhaps a test to see to what level this is successful. It could also just be a precursor to any ongoing merger discussions happening behind closed doors.
Would it be a purchase by Porter of AT?
This would make sense since Porter would gain international operations but have nothing to give back to the competition bureau or the Europe counterparts, should be a straight forward process

[braaap Braap]

I see it heading that way. I'd guess within the next 10 years (assuming no more curveballs like Covid). Short term we get this E2 network established and Transat continues their financial turnaround.

RD made his generational wealth by selling Air Ontario to AC. What's to say in 10 years MD isn't looking for a similar move/exit strategy. We certainly have complementary networks/fleets. Problem with Porter buying Transat is I don't see the Porter product scaling well to a transoceanic long haul operation. How much does glassware weigh for 300+ people, snacks, etc. Where do you even put it all?

(edit to add)

I can also see the next move being joining an alliance. Oneworld would be my guess - Alaska already a member. Air Canada is with Star Alliance. Westjet, while not part of Skyteam, has the Delta partnership. Porter is now joining up with Alaska and I would guess once this pathetic experiment that is Waltzing Matilda/Connect finally dies and YTZ gains preclearance in 2025 American may be interested. They already seem interested in gaining exposure to YTZ.

[cjp]

That would be complicated (Porter acquiring Transat) - selling one entity to another is one thing (Air Ontario to AC) - acquiring an indebted airline for expansion is a whole other ball of wax - particularly one that is already unionized.

I don't see it happening, but again Michael may have a different vision than his father. Certainly fun to ponder.

[rudder]

I see it heading that way. I'd guess within the next 10 years (assuming no more curveballs like Covid). Short term we get this E2 network established and Transat continues their financial turnaround.

RD made his generational wealth by selling Air Ontario to AC. What's to say in 10 years MD isn't looking for a similar move.

It was SD. Or if you want to talk CEO, WD. Having said that, all siblings benefited from the two AC transactions (more from the later (arbitrated) than the former(negotiated)).

Regardless, PAH sourced its capital from many larger contributors. Whether MD or any other PAH owner or executive will reap a similar reward remains to be determined.

[braaap Braap]

I see it heading that way. I'd guess within the next 10 years (assuming no more curveballs like Covid). Short term we get this E2 network established and Transat continues their financial turnaround.

RD made his generational wealth by selling Air Ontario to AC. What's to say in 10 years MD isn't looking for a similar move.

It was SD. Or if you want to talk CEO, WD. Having said that, all siblings benefited from the two AC transactions (more from the later (arbitrated) than the former(negotiated)).

Thanks for the clarification

[CaptDukeNukem]

All this is way too far in the future for our pilot minds to comprehend. We drive buses, with wings. Let the smart people do what they do.

[fish4life]

I’m not sure it would be a purchase be either party since neither has the cash. I could see a merger but not one party outright purchasing the other.

[safetyfirst123]

ONEX?

[PropDog]

ONEX?

EIC. Now with direct dash 8 service ZSJ-YTZ

[cdnavater]

ONEX?

EIC. Now with direct dash 8 service ZSJ-YTZ

Using which EIC owned company?
Once in awhile I wonder if EIC has ever approached Chorus about buying Jazz, for the record I would not like that given what I know about company before and after these transactions.

[cdnavater]

I’m not sure it would be a purchase be either party since neither has the cash. I could see a merger but not one party outright purchasing the other.

I guess in reality a joint venture is somewhat a merger, without being privy to the revenue sharing metric, they would be coordinating their operations for a smooth flow of passengers and obviously have discussions on where and when to deploy to certain markets etc.
This being said, with AT starting to rebound a bit, not sure the shareholders would take a 5.00/share offer again, I would think they might just want roll the dice with the current plan.
So, your likely correct a merger would be more likely and boy would that be a thorn is ACs side, they might start to regret not going through with the purchase when they had the chance.

[PropDog]

ONEX?

EIC. Now with direct dash 8 service ZSJ-YTZ

Using which EIC owned company?
Once in awhile I wonder if EIC has ever approached Chorus about buying Jazz, for the record I would not like that given what I know about company before and after these transactions.

Bearter? Portimeter? Haha EIC reminds me of the Borg from Star Trek. Assimilate!

[cjp]

EIC. Now with direct dash 8 service ZSJ-YTZ

Using which EIC owned company?
Once in awhile I wonder if EIC has ever approached Chorus about buying Jazz, for the record I would not like that given what I know about company before and after these transactions.

Bearter? Portimeter? Haha EIC reminds me of the Borg from Star Trek. Assimilate!

Tranny Dash or Pansat

[rudder]

Neither company has the cash to buy the other.

One isn’t publicly traded so a stock swap is not an option.

It remains in both carriers interest (currently) to maintain a strong commercial relationship based on schedule and interline fares. TS needs to focus on north/south and NATL city pairs. Porter should be North America minus leisure routes best served by TS.

Porter seems to be following the Alaska Airlines script. Sign as many commercial agreements as possible.

I don’t see merger or acquisition in either carriers future. PAH may revisit an IPO attempt again. But that requires full financial transparency and disclosure.

[PropDog]

Using which EIC owned company?
Once in awhile I wonder if EIC has ever approached Chorus about buying Jazz, for the record I would not like that given what I know about company before and after these transactions.

Bearter? Portimeter? Haha EIC reminds me of the Borg from Star Trek. Assimilate!

Tranny Dash or Pansat

lol Pansat, that’s the one

[cdnavater]

Bearter? Portimeter? Haha EIC reminds me of the Borg from Star Trek. Assimilate!

Tranny Dash or Pansat

lol Pansat, that’s the one

Nope “TransPort” should I copyright this name

[flyinhigh]

Porter will procure TS as follows.

Once all the Emb fleet is here AND St Hubert is built, Porter will sell both the YOW hanger and Terminal and make a butt load, pay most the EMB fleet off outright, than turn around and IPO. With minimal debt from the sale of both Hangar and Terminal the IPO will be stupid successful, make them even more money at which point discussions will ensue about a buy out or merger.

As Porter pilots are not organized (because we don’t need it right now, not my words) they will get eatin up and spit out during merger discussions by the TS pilots who have protections in place and are already planning for this eventuality. Porter pilots will rally, bitch and complain but be able to do nothing.

In the end, fences are put in place and we all hate each other for our career choices.. The End

[flyinhigh]

All this is way too far in the future for our pilot minds to comprehend. We drive buses, with wings. Let the smart people do what they do.

So what, it can still be discussed. Seems that anything that might affect your golden egg you try to shut down immediately lately.

This whole topic is a moot point for a long time, but is still fun to think about, unless you know your going BOTL and loose your training train. Haha

[goingnowherefast]

Porter will procure TS as follows.

Once all the Emb fleet is here AND St Hubert is built, Porter will sell both the YOW hanger and Terminal and make a butt load, pay most the EMB fleet off outright, than turn around and IPO. With minimal debt from the sale of both Hangar and Terminal the IPO will be stupid successful, make them even more money at which point discussions will ensue about a buy out or merger.

As Porter pilots are not organized (because we don’t need it right now, not my words) they will get eatin up and spit out during merger discussions by the TS pilots who have protections in place and are already planning for this eventuality. Porter pilots will rally, bitch and complain but be able to do nothing.

In the end, fences are put in place and we all hate each other for our career choices.. The End

Bingo!
However, I expect Porter pilots will have unionized by this point. The big wild card is the number of Jazz pilots who move over and blame JAZ ALPA instead of Jazz management for the mess going on there. Those that blame JAZ MEC for the mess created by Jazz management will hinder Porter from organizing.

In the context of this thread, it's worth it just for the merger protections.

[cdnavater]

Porter will procure TS as follows.

Once all the Emb fleet is here AND St Hubert is built, Porter will sell both the YOW hanger and Terminal and make a butt load, pay most the EMB fleet off outright, than turn around and IPO. With minimal debt from the sale of both Hangar and Terminal the IPO will be stupid successful, make them even more money at which point discussions will ensue about a buy out or merger.

As Porter pilots are not organized (because we don’t need it right now, not my words) they will get eatin up and spit out during merger discussions by the TS pilots who have protections in place and are already planning for this eventuality. Porter pilots will rally, bitch and complain but be able to do nothing.

In the end, fences are put in place and we all hate each other for our career choices.. The End

Bingo!
However, I expect Porter pilots will have unionized by this point. The big wild card is the number of Jazz pilots who move over and blame JAZ ALPA instead of Jazz management for the mess going on there. Those that blame JAZ MEC for the mess created by Jazz management will hinder Porter from organizing.

In the context of this thread, it's worth it just for the merger protections.

I do believe Porter is setting itself up for a merger, the whole separation of Porter dash and E2 operations has no logical answer other than commercial reasons. By commercial, I don’t mean easier to start a new AOC than add a type. The amount of work involved is the same, the regulator would consider the track record of original Porter for approval purposes, in other words a new operator would have more to prove before being granted an AOC without a track record. I can almost guarantee that most things required for the “start up” were carbon copies from Porter, things like an SMS program, de-ice training, etc.
In a merger situation, Porter dash will be left out, possibly set up as a CPA provider for the new merged airline, they’ve taken steps to separate the two as distinct operations, all under the guise that the regulator required it. You mean to tell me that, as long as they’ve been involved in aviation they couldn’t predict a conflict with the call sign.
There is nothing new being tried here, these are time tested actions which have always eventually lead to a whip saw maneuver.