Flair Suspending Growth Plans amid Delivery Delays and Debt

[rooster]

Anyone who continues to work at Flair has seen the warning signs for well over a year now. If they choose to continue working for a dying company, that's their choice. The wheel joke made me laugh. Sorry not sorry.

So because they believe Flair will succeed and choose to ride it out, that's a them problem?

Yes. Leafs fans go through the same thing every year too, but you don't see anyone sympathizing with them. If you are in a relationship, and your partner time and time again cheats on you, but you continue to be with them anyways, that's your problem. No one is forced to be a part of something. You rise together, you fall together.

Comparing sports and ones livelihood, totally the same!

[flying4dollars]

New interview by the CEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5YWV0wh3es

That interview made me nervous. I feel like if the airline is profitable and you're asked "are you profitable?", you'd happily answer yes. If not, you'd give an answer like he just did. Driving the "we are bringing affordable travel to Canadians" slogan constantly in every interview in every press release seems to be the only trick this pony has. I don't know what the financials are like but I sure hope they are at least good enough to make it through the muddy waters. Competition is good for us all, as both consumers and professionally as pilots.

[digits_]

New interview by the CEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5YWV0wh3es

That interview made me nervous. I feel like if the airline is profitable and you're asked "are you profitable?", you'd happily answer yes. If not, you'd give an answer like he just did. Driving the "we are bringing affordable travel to Canadians" slogan constantly in every interview in every press release seems to be the only trick this pony has. I don't know what the financials are like but I sure hope they are at least good enough to make it through the muddy waters. Competition is good for us all, as both consumers and professionally as pilots.

Yeah, pretty evasive interview... It's not looking good. I hope I'm wrong.

[ads-b]

I’m curious why most post they’ll feel bad if flair goes bust. Maybe I’m to black and white but my thoughts are your working for a company not servicing debt at current ticket prices undercutting legitimate airlines and associated employees.

Bye

[Cavalier44]

I’m curious why most post they’ll feel bad if flair goes bust. Maybe I’m to black and white but my thoughts are your working for a company not servicing debt at current ticket prices undercutting legitimate airlines and associated employees.

Bye

It doesn't matter what I think of Flair as a business entity or if I think their business practices are flawed - I will still feel badly for the pilots who are there if Flair ultimately ceases to exist.

It should go without saying, but it sucks to lose one's job. It creates an enormous amount of uncertainty and stress in one's life, and for one's family as well. If you spend enough time in this industry, it's almost a certainty that at some point you'll be faced with a furlough, job loss, or even company bankruptcy. Lots of newcomers to this industry had their first taste of this just a couple of years ago - given that, I'm not surprised at all that other pilots in this unstable industry would feel badly - it's only natural when you've experienced the same thing yourself.

[Blackdog0301]

I’m curious why most post they’ll feel bad if flair goes bust. Maybe I’m to black and white but my thoughts are your working for a company not servicing debt at current ticket prices undercutting legitimate airlines and associated employees.

Bye

It doesn't matter what I think of Flair as a business entity or if I think their business practices are flawed - I will still feel badly for the pilots who are there if Flair ultimately ceases to exist.

It should go without saying, but it sucks to lose one's job. It creates an enormous amount of uncertainty and stress in one's life, and for one's family as well. If you spend enough time in this industry, it's almost a certainty that at some point you'll be faced with a furlough, job loss, or even company bankruptcy. Lots of newcomers to this industry had their first taste of this just a couple of years ago - given that, I'm not surprised at all that other pilots in this unstable industry would feel badly - it's only natural when you've experienced the same thing yourself.

The difference between this and what happened 4 years ago is Covid blindsided virtually everyone. This has been brewing for years, yet pilots continued flocking to it. When those aircraft got repossessed last year, that should have been the big red flag that made them realize it wasn't going to work, and gone to look for more stable work. Those who chose to ignore the warning signs are likely going to regret it soon. Very soon.

[rookiepilot]

New interview by the CEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5YWV0wh3es

That interview made me nervous. I feel like if the airline is profitable and you're asked "are you profitable?", you'd happily answer yes. If not, you'd give an answer like he just did. Driving the "we are bringing affordable travel to Canadians" slogan constantly in every interview in every press release seems to be the only trick this pony has.

That last line.

What, does he want the NDP/LIBS to subsidize $10 flights as well as $10 child care? Sounds like a politician.

They’re done. (Probably) Is what it is.

[boeingboy]

I find the loan figures interesting.

20 planes. 189 seats. Four sectors each per day (based on flight radar and is VERY generous). = 15,120 seats / day = 453,600 / month.

So $15 of each ticket sold goes to paying lease payments alone. Not including the other 300 million in debt.

Yes I know this isn’t the most accurate way to run numbers without asm info pm but it’s some quick napkin math to show $10 air fares just don’t work.

You do know that not EVERY seat sells for $10 right? I'm quite shocked at how many here believe that's how ULCC's work. Let me explain. Flair advertises YYC-LAS for $30. Well maybe 20 seats sell at that price (it's the bait deal). The next set of available seats will actually sell for $79 (still cheap). Then once those seats are gone, the next set goes for $199 and so on.

The math significantly changes when you factor that in.

I’m aware. That’s why I called it napkin math and stated it’s hard to know accurate figures without rasm and casm figures. Which we will never know for a private company.

I’m actually going to revise my figures since SJ is quoted as stating they have a 90% load factor. $17 of each ticket is going to lease payments alone. Even for seats being sold at 199, that makes it tough to make money when the largest costs aren’t even being considered.

Here’s what we know:

Flair was behind on lease payments.

Flair was behind on cra accounts.

SJ wouldn’t didn’t answer the “are you profitable” question on BNN earlier today stating instead that they are a private company. Even WJ/Onex have no issues stating when they are profitable or not. You can answer that question without using numbers. My guess is, he didn’t want to lie on national television as that would probably come back to bite him as ceo in any bankruptcy disputes with creditors.

You can also figure it out that the Max costs in the neighborhood of $7000/hour to operate. That's just for the plane to break even, never mind and electric bills, office rent, spares, or debt repayment. At 4 legs per day (on average) they need to radically increase the frequency they operate at, and increase the price of tickets. The ULCC model doesn't work unless you have very short legs and high frequency

[cdnavater]

I’m curious why most post they’ll feel bad if flair goes bust. Maybe I’m to black and white but my thoughts are your working for a company not servicing debt at current ticket prices undercutting legitimate airlines and associated employees.

Bye

You know, I’m with you for the most part, I do feel bad(empathy) but at the same time there are a couple employees there that have done a lot of damage to the profession and continued that trend by going to Flair after inflicting so much damage at Swoop.
I would not have shed a single tear had SR gone out of business, my only regret there, is they got DOH on our list even though they were the biggest detriment to our contract. Then the scabs had the nerve to complain about our contract, @#$! them.
As for Flair, I am assuming most who can go elsewhere will, those who can’t will ride it out, keep in mind the thing driving wages is the competition for Pilots. This will put a supply back in the market.
For the record, I wouldn’t care if Flair sold seats for a dollar if they weren’t supplementing the low fares with low wages and not honouring the contract they do have, taking liberties with the language, the management could all lose their houses for all I give a shit!

[boeingboy]

They do own spare parts.....

LOL - they will show up one morning to find their planes were not repossessed - but they are up on blocks cause the wheels were!

Making a joke like this at the expense of the many fellow pilots that work there, whose careers hinge on their success tells me exactly what kind of person you are.

You're a real winner boeingboy. Grow up

Wow - cant even let someone lighten the mood with a joke that was clearly a joke. Grow some hair.

I've been around the block too many times to see this again. As was said already - anyone still staying around at a company that has never made a dime, cant pay its bills, and continuously making questionable decisions to stay afloat pretty much is going to get what's coming to them and each day that goes on - with more and more flags going up - I have less and less sympathy. It's fine to say give the company a chance in the first couple of years - but by now - everyone should be very weary of what's to come. It doesn't take a masters degree to see what's wrong here.

Maybe it's just me getting old - but the people that go to these cheap startups that have dubious business plans are just hurting not only themselves - but the whole industry, as when these companies eventually go under it just floods the market with people and it drives down everything again. These companies are toxic for the industry as a whole.

[Ash Ketchum]

I always thought Flair was the most stable of all the ULCCs in Canada. If they aren't doing well I can only imagine how Lynx and Jetlines are doing. I hope Flair pulls through and all the pilots get to keep their jobs.

[MaxAuto]

I always thought Flair was the most stable of all the ULCCs in Canada. If they aren't doing well I can only imagine how Lynx and Jetlines are doing. I hope Flair pulls through and all the pilots get to keep their jobs.

Lynx seems to be taking it slow and
Jetlines seem to have taken the charter route and also taking it slow.

Flair went full scale fast in an environment that doesn't really support ULCC.

[flying4dollars]

I really liked what the company's vision was in the beginning, I was not a fan of their execution. Constantly changing the schedule, frequency, announcing new city pairs then dropping 1/3 of them before the initiation date, opening new bases and closing others etc. There was no consistency. It was downright frustrating for passengers and crew alike. If the only YVR-YYC flight of the day was cancelled, it took days to recover because of lack of frequency. Meanwhile other a/c are being deployed to LA Burbank with 60 pax down and back. Many of those 'new boutique' routes did poorly. Don't get me wrong that was one of my favourite airports to fly into but I think in over a dozen flights operating into there, only once we carried over 100 pax. I think slow, deliberate growth should have been the game plan. Increasing frequency on trunk routes should have been the next step. Once established, grow another layer outside those routes etc.

Instead they grew too fast and too aggressively and as a result, Flair has been in the news for things like delinquency far too often. Missed payments, outstanding tax debts and unpaid vendors. At least the employees were always paid on time (I was anyways). But these kinds of financial lapses are NOT the sign of a healthy airline. There's some really good people at Flair and for their sake, and for the travelling publics, I hope they are able to responsibly turn things around.

[ACYYC]

That reporter knows (and we all know) Flair isn't profitable. He was trying to get the CEO to come out and say it.

Profitable airlines don't have aircraft repossessed, they don't take out loans at Payday Loan interest rates, and they don't fall so far behind in taxes that the CRA gets a court order to seize assets.

Makes me wonder who else Flair is behind on payment with? Fuelers? Ground Handlers?

[Stable_Approach]

I really liked what the company's vision was in the beginning, I was not a fan of their execution. Constantly changing the schedule, frequency, announcing new city pairs then dropping 1/3 of them before the initiation date, opening new bases and closing others etc. There was no consistency. It was downright frustrating for passengers and crew alike. If the only YVR-YYC flight of the day was cancelled, it took days to recover because of lack of frequency. Meanwhile other a/c are being deployed to LA Burbank with 60 pax down and back. Many of those 'new boutique' routes did poorly. Don't get me wrong that was one of my favourite airports to fly into but I think in over a dozen flights operating into there, only once we carried over 100 pax. I think slow, deliberate growth should have been the game plan. Increasing frequency on trunk routes should have been the next step. Once established, grow another layer outside those routes etc.

Instead they grew too fast and too aggressively and as a result, Flair has been in the news for things like delinquency far too often. Missed payments, outstanding tax debts and unpaid vendors. At least the employees were always paid on time (I was anyways). But these kinds of financial lapses are NOT the sign of a healthy airline. There's some really good people at Flair and for their sake, and for the travelling publics, I hope they are able to responsibly turn things around.

Launching a successful ULCC requires deploying a lot of assets in a short period of time and putting them to work. Very hard to serve even a dozen destinations with only 5 aircraft. Need deep pockets to absorb years of losses before you can see any profit.

[Maurice]

Rumor is Flair is losing pilots and it could start to impact flying, anyone have any evidence of this? Would intensify the cash flow problems in a hurry.

[Canadaflyer46]

Pretty sure I’d be like a rat off a sinking ship right now, who would not be trying to get out before everyone is locked out? The writing is on the wall unfortunately. I wish all of you the best and hope that everyone can move on expeditiously while the hiring at other airlines is still continuing.

[lostaviator]

They can’t even come up with a consistent message. Suspending growth yesterday, job ads for rapid growth today.

[rookiepilot]

Rumor is Flair is losing pilots and it could start to impact flying, anyone have any evidence of this? Would intensify the cash flow problems in a hurry.

Ask Michael Myers. He think’s everything is fine

[CaptDukeNukem]

Rumor is Flair is losing pilots and it could start to impact flying, anyone have any evidence of this? Would intensify the cash flow problems in a hurry.

Ask Michael Myers. He think’s everything is fine

I’m still waiting to hear back from tbaylx. But I guess they don’t have internet down under

[flyinhigh]

Rumor is Flair is losing pilots and it could start to impact flying, anyone have any evidence of this? Would intensify the cash flow problems in a hurry.

Rumour, it’s fact and has been ongoing for awhile.

[afterburner&smoke]

They can’t even come up with a consistent message. Suspending growth yesterday, job ads for rapid growth today.

Job adds? Where?

[flying4dollars]

They can’t even come up with a consistent message. Suspending growth yesterday, job ads for rapid growth today.

Job adds? Where?

PCC

[Aviator12]

https://x.com/flairairlines/status/1753 ... RqKVqfpf4g

One minute they are suspending growth next minute they are expanding apparently

[porcsord]

One minute they are suspending growth next minute they are expanding apparently

I could also be attempting to stop the hemorrhaging.