Losing another tail?

[Timetoflyagain]

…was taxiing down E at YYZ, and on the Porter/Westjet ramp there’s a Flair plane, black paint over the “Flair” and a new registration starting with E on the tail…couldn’t get a pic…anyone know what’s up?


….just found on the TC export register…CFLKI, 737-8 exported to Ethiopia Feb29/2024….

[Jetpipe Overheat]

It's one of the four that were seized last year. The three B38M's in that group are going to Ethiopian. The other two were cycled through YKF for the export process. The fourth B738 is currently in export process to the US.

[flyinhigh]

You mean to tell me one of the most sought after aircraft has been sitting for a year in YYZ. Find that very hard to believe.

Do you have any references for this? Those four previous aircraft would have been exported within short order.

[twa22]

…was taxiing down E at YYZ, and on the Porter/Westjet ramp there’s a Flair plane, black paint over the “Flair” and a new registration starting with E on the tail…couldn’t get a pic…anyone know what’s up?


….just found on the TC export register…CFLKI, 737-8 exported to Ethiopia Feb29/2024….

That plane was one of 4 seized in March 2023... it was flown to YLK Barrie Lake Simcoe Regional in April 2023, then it just flew back Feb 19 2024 to YYZ... Info is available on Flightradar24 if you have one of the higher tier subscriptions

[CFM Symphony]

Strange situation. Massive shortage of narrowbodies world-wide. A lessor eager to repossess (and I assume to redeploy and continue to earn revenue). Then the planes sit on the ground for a whole year.

[ant_321]

You mean to tell me one of the most sought after aircraft has been sitting for a year in YYZ. Find that very hard to believe.

Do you have any references for this? Those four previous aircraft would have been exported within short order.

I thought it was strange as well but it is true. I was approached to see if I was available to do a test flight on one of the 4 just a few weeks ago. I believe there may still be a couple sitting in Barrie.

[Jetpipe Overheat]

You mean to tell me one of the most sought after aircraft has been sitting for a year in YYZ. Find that very hard to believe.

Do you have any references for this? Those four previous aircraft would have been exported within short order.

I think you mean one of the most sought after NEW aircraft? These are not new aircraft, one is a high time -800 NG. If an aircraft doesn't fit your fleet, who do you think pays to cover the gap? All four aircraft fell off of the Flair Maintenance program and went straight to storage. The lessor doesn't have an AMO, any maintenance short falls would be negotiated with the next customer. Interior, paint, avionics options, supplements all cost lots of $$$ if the aircraft you want to lease doesn't fit your fleet. The lessor isn't going to eat that cost, especially in a seller's market.

So, no, nothing is within short order when it comes to buying/leasing an airplane. My reference. I know the guy that ferried those aircraft, he's typing this message.

[newlygrounded]

You mean to tell me one of the most sought after aircraft has been sitting for a year in YYZ. Find that very hard to believe.

Do you have any references for this? Those four previous aircraft would have been exported within short order.

I thought it was strange as well but it is true. I was approached to see if I was available to do a test flight on one of the 4 just a few weeks ago. I believe there may still be a couple sitting in Barrie.

If you're comfy sharing how/what does a test flight pay?

[CaptDukeNukem]

You mean to tell me one of the most sought after aircraft has been sitting for a year in YYZ. Find that very hard to believe.

Do you have any references for this? Those four previous aircraft would have been exported within short order.

I thought it was strange as well but it is true. I was approached to see if I was available to do a test flight on one of the 4 just a few weeks ago. I believe there may still be a couple sitting in Barrie.

If you're comfy sharing how/what does a test flight pay?

Probably the same as a regular flight

[ant_321]

You mean to tell me one of the most sought after aircraft has been sitting for a year in YYZ. Find that very hard to believe.

Do you have any references for this? Those four previous aircraft would have been exported within short order.

I thought it was strange as well but it is true. I was approached to see if I was available to do a test flight on one of the 4 just a few weeks ago. I believe there may still be a couple sitting in Barrie.

If you're comfy sharing how/what does a test flight pay?

It was being staffed by a ferry company (can’t even remember what it’s called) and they were having a hard time finding someone on short notice. Someone contacted me to see if I was available, I wasn’t. I believe the pay was $1000USD but can’t recall for sure. It was a short conversation.

[newlygrounded]

I thought it was strange as well but it is true. I was approached to see if I was available to do a test flight on one of the 4 just a few weeks ago. I believe there may still be a couple sitting in Barrie.

If you're comfy sharing how/what does a test flight pay?

It was being staffed by a ferry company (can’t even remember what it’s called) and they were having a hard time finding someone on short notice. Someone contacted me to see if I was available, I wasn’t. I believe the pay was $1000USD but can’t recall for sure. It was a short conversation.

Wonder if it was Nomadic? Thanks for the reply btw!

[Realitychex]

The troubles are compounding like MELS for 777 Partners.

https://theathletic.com/5327405/2024/03/08/777-everton/

https://theathletic.com/5320707/2024/03 ... l-eurocup/

It all points to one conclusion. Cash is drying up.

It appears that Flair is one tail short currently. They operated 20 tails, including a full sched with a Jetlines A320 on Friday March 8th, with all tails flying an avg of over 13 block hours a day.

Any weather, any IROP and the rolling delays will be eye watering.

Meanwhile, the remaining Flair tail in OZ hasn't flown a revenue flight since March 1st.

Best keep eyes peeled on this impending train wreck.

It's March break season now, but that ends abruptly on Sunday April 7th and with the exception of the May L/W, its crickets until the last week of June.

People forget that although WS was designed, and succeeded in being profitable 4 quarters a year, by far the weakest quarter was not the 4th or 1st quarter, but the second quarter....April 1 to June 30th.

[WJ200]

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/flair-airli ... -1.2046489

Another tile gets pulled on the Jenga tower that is Flair right now. In Jones's world, it's never Flair's fault and litigation is the answer.

[fish4life]

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/flair-airli ... -1.2046489

Another tile gets pulled on the Jenga tower that is Flair right now. In Jones's world, it's never Flair's fault and litigation is the answer.

So essentially the regulator doesn’t want the finance company to release customers forward booking funds because they may never fly those flights ?

[rudder]

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/flair-airli ... -1.2046489

Another tile gets pulled on the Jenga tower that is Flair right now. In Jones's world, it's never Flair's fault and litigation is the answer.

So essentially the regulator doesn’t want the finance company to release customers forward booking funds because they may never fly those flights ?

Any credit based purchase transaction is typically managed by a third party. Therefore, the third party assumes some degree of financial liability if the underlying product or service is not provided.

In order to mitigate that liability, there is typically a ‘hold back’ on purchases. This holdback amount is normally a function of the service agreement and may contain liquidity requirements (covenants).

If the liquidity thresholds are not met, there may be provisions to increase the amount or percentage of the holdback. This was happening to AC in 2008/2009 when it teetered on re-entering CCAA.

[Realitychex]

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/flair-airli ... -1.2046489

Another tile gets pulled on the Jenga tower that is Flair right now. In Jones's world, it's never Flair's fault and litigation is the answer.

Jones thinks he’s the second coming of MOL when in fact he’s more like the second coming of Baghdad Bob, the hapless Iraqi information minister.

When your tier 2 card processor decides to hang on to the cash to cover their rear ends, the rest of the suppliers will quickly take note.

No daily reconciliation and payment of all amounts owing? No services provided, no product delivered. CCAA is inevitable in this scenario.

Flair’s revenue from Jan 9th through March 6th would have been a disaster, resulting in payables being juggled to ensure those screaming the loudest got paid with others getting the “mañana , mañana“ routine.

Consider that from Sun Feb 4 to 7th, Flair had about 36,200 seats available to cover their fixed and variable costs. That changed to 56,700 from Sunday Mar 10-13th.

Higher levels of earned revenue should have been transferred from the credit card processor to Flair over the past week or so as the unearned revenue, (Ontario school break advance bookings), convert into earned revenue as the flights are operated.

The earned revenue today is paying for yesterday’s long delayed payables. How are today and tomorrows bills being covered with 31% additional flying, compared to early Feb, with the post spring break / Easter l/w cliff approaching is the big question, and likely the reason the credit card processor has taken this action.

Lest anyone forget, WS’s weakest quarter was ALWAYS the 2nd quarter, which happens to start in 16 days.

[Realitychex]

Flair missed payroll today, with, as usual, SJ blaming it on a "glitch" at ADP.

Naturally, the "glitch" at ADP, who do payroll for hundreds if not thousands of companies, only impacted Flair, which would suggest that the glitch was more of a "we ain't issuing payroll cheques 'till you fund the payroll" sort of thing.

Flair will juggle the cash today, with a number of suppliers calls not being returned, so they can make payroll.

Flair is playing solitaire with a deck of 21. It is an unwinnable battle.

The earned revenue coming in today from the massive March capacity increase is paying off deferred bills from January, and perhaps earlier.

The quid pro quo is the 30%+ increase in Spring break flying has increased their costs and those bills will have to be paid just as the March / Easter break period ends and Flair goes back into the revenue doldrums from April 8 until the last week of June.

And Flair has a $1.5m a month bill to CRA beginning April 1.

2Q was always WS's slowest quarter. It'll be no different at Flair.

It's inevitable that suppliers will simply stop providing services.

Some advice to flight crews: No one, other than SJ himself, should put their own credit card down to pay for any Flair services, ( fuel / catering / groundhandling etc). You will be an unsecured creditor and will lose it all.