Dominoes...|/

[thepoors]

https://www.paxnews.com/news/airline/ai ... nts-report

[Sharklasers]

Just turning up the heat on the government to get moving on those leeff loans!
With the stroke of the pen Transat will go from life support to having the strongest balance sheet in Canada or maybe even North America!

[Core]

https://www.paxnews.com/news/airline/ai ... nts-report

Those of us who've been in the industry for a while know this happens almost every fall at Transat for the lull before Xmas. Look back and you'll see these avnews releases almost yearly. It's usually 150-300. 400 is a bit high.

[Tbayer2021]

https://www.paxnews.com/news/airline/ai ... nts-report

Those of us who've been in the industry for a while know this happens almost every fall at Transat for the lull before Xmas. Look back and you'll see these avnews releases almost yearly. It's usually 150-300. 400 is a bit high.

May be higher due to all their grounded birds?

[BillytheKid]

Does this mean Air Transat wouldn't be a good place for a career?

[Stratopaused]

Transat is completely dropping three routes next summer, without adding anything new. They're increasing some frequencies, but also reducing others, so those balance out, and it isn't apparent that there's anything to replace the dropped routes. The hypothesis that they're giving up North American routes to Porter so that they can focus on international flying seems not to be coming to fruition; rather, they're just yielding market share to AC.

[CaptDukeNukem]

Transat is completely dropping three routes next summer, without adding anything new. They're increasing some frequencies, but also reducing others, so those balance out, and it isn't apparent that there's anything to replace the dropped routes. The hypothesis that they're giving up North American routes to Porter so that they can focus on international flying seems not to be coming to fruition; rather, they're just yielding market share to AC.

While I agree with some of your thoughts, I think there’s many facets at play here. The porter/transat JV is still kinda fresh. It’s hard to pin down exactly how this affects the markets. AC has always had a solid foundation in this type of work, so customers will always fall back on what is secure and easy, but I’m not convinced Transat is at a crossroads. They know where they do best, and will continue to pump those routes.

[cdnavater]

Transat is completely dropping three routes next summer, without adding anything new. They're increasing some frequencies, but also reducing others, so those balance out, and it isn't apparent that there's anything to replace the dropped routes. The hypothesis that they're giving up North American routes to Porter so that they can focus on international flying seems not to be coming to fruition; rather, they're just yielding market share to AC.

As the thread title states, dominoes, bookings will fall off with the recent announcement as travellers want a guaranteed vacation and not having to worry about a last minute rebook if something happens.
This is going to get worse before it gets better

[CaptDukeNukem]

Transat is completely dropping three routes next summer, without adding anything new. They're increasing some frequencies, but also reducing others, so those balance out, and it isn't apparent that there's anything to replace the dropped routes. The hypothesis that they're giving up North American routes to Porter so that they can focus on international flying seems not to be coming to fruition; rather, they're just yielding market share to AC.

As the thread title states, dominoes, bookings will fall off with the recent announcement as travellers want a guaranteed vacation and not having to worry about a last minute rebook if something happens.
This is going to get worse before it gets better

I’m not as convinced as you are regarding FA layoffs causing a sharp decline in bookings. They’ve always laid off a certain amount, albeit this year is considerably higher. People will book vacations regardless and roll the dice. Travel insurance companies will probably do well this year.

[Stratopaused]

I’m not as convinced as you are regarding FA layoffs causing a sharp decline in bookings. They’ve always laid off a certain amount, albeit this year is considerably higher. People will book vacations regardless and roll the dice. Travel insurance companies will probably do well this year.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/air-tra ... -1.7084191

The company said it has used this measure several times before, noting the move complies with the collective agreement and "is common in the industry."...For instance, it said an average of 455 flight attendants were temporarily laid off per year from 2010 to 2016.

They haven't done this in eight years, so this isn't a normal seasonal reduction.

Despite what the company said, commercial aviation expert John Gradek believes Air Transat’s winter flight schedule may be affected due to the layoffs. Air Transat typically operates a "robust schedule" to sun destinations such as Florida, the Caribbean and Mexico, but the temporary layoffs suggest it won't be flying as much during the winter travel season compared to last winter, said the faculty lecturer in supply networks and aviation management at McGill University...Air Transat's move is "a little unusual," Gradek added. "Typically, you'd see a slight reduction in seasonal workforces," he said. "This one is a little too, too large for me." While the company said financial challenges and reduced travel demand aren’t factors behind the temporary layoffs, Gradek said he is concerned about the airline's survival. He said Air Transat has to address its problem of being nearly a billion dollars in debt. “So they need to either refinance that debt, restructure it, or they might be at risk in terms of not being able to support the operations with that level of debt on their books,” he said.

[Sharklasers]

2016-2020 was aviations second golden age and they didn’t need to layoff. 2020-2022 they had almost 100% layoffs due to covid followed by the post covid travel boom. This is just a return to mean.
Once Trudeau wipes TRZs debt I’m sure everyone will be recalled.

[CaptDukeNukem]

2016-2020 was aviations second golden age and they didn’t need to layoff. 2020-2022 they had almost 100% layoffs due to covid followed by the post covid travel boom. This is just a return to mean.
Once Trudeau wipes TRZs debt I’m sure everyone will be recalled.

If it ain’t Trudeau it’ll be Quebec. But I agree. Hence my post above about dominos not falling

[Sharklasers]

2016-2020 was aviations second golden age and they didn’t need to layoff. 2020-2022 they had almost 100% layoffs due to covid followed by the post covid travel boom. This is just a return to mean.
Once Trudeau wipes TRZs debt I’m sure everyone will be recalled.

If it ain’t Trudeau it’ll be Quebec. But I agree. Hence my post above about dominos not falling

Exactly.
Hopefully they get the debt restructuring out of the way before the pilots start to negotiate. It will be more difficult to extract significant gains with the sword hanging over the pilots. Then we can all get into the rhythm of pattern bargaining.

[Stratopaused]

This is just a return to mean.

You've completely ignored what I wrote above:

Transat is completely dropping three routes next summer, without adding anything new. They're increasing some frequencies, but also reducing others, so those balance out, and it isn't apparent that there's anything to replace the dropped routes.

These layoffs aren't just because of winter slowdowns, because they're reducing capacity next summer as well. They're going to be operating fewer flights throughout the year, and it doesn't seem like those FAs will be recalled in the spring.

Also, eliminating debt doesn't just magically make a company viable. They're not just massively indebted, they're also burning cash faster than they generate revenue. Wiping out a debt just means that they'll start digging the hole again right away. Bankruptcy doesn't miraculously save businesses that can't be maintained as going concerns.

[SergeFortin]

This is just a return to mean.

You've completely ignored what I wrote above:

Transat is completely dropping three routes next summer, without adding anything new. They're increasing some frequencies, but also reducing others, so those balance out, and it isn't apparent that there's anything to replace the dropped routes.

These layoffs aren't just because of winter slowdowns, because they're reducing capacity next summer as well. They're going to be operating fewer flights throughout the year, and it doesn't seem like those FAs will be recalled in the spring.

Also, eliminating debt doesn't just magically make a company viable. They're not just massively indebted, they're also burning cash faster than they generate revenue. Wiping out a debt just means that they'll start digging the hole again right away. Bankruptcy doesn't miraculously save businesses that can't be maintained as going concerns.

well obviously the company is burning cash faster than they generate revenue precisely because of the debt with it's huge interest rate and also because of the p&w engines trouble. THe last issue should be overcome by 2025-26. Without these 2 issues, the company would be making profits so their business plan seems to be all right

[fish4life]

This is just a return to mean.

You've completely ignored what I wrote above:

Transat is completely dropping three routes next summer, without adding anything new. They're increasing some frequencies, but also reducing others, so those balance out, and it isn't apparent that there's anything to replace the dropped routes.

These layoffs aren't just because of winter slowdowns, because they're reducing capacity next summer as well. They're going to be operating fewer flights throughout the year, and it doesn't seem like those FAs will be recalled in the spring.

Also, eliminating debt doesn't just magically make a company viable. They're not just massively indebted, they're also burning cash faster than they generate revenue. Wiping out a debt just means that they'll start digging the hole again right away. Bankruptcy doesn't miraculously save businesses that can't be maintained as going concerns.

well obviously the company is burning cash faster than they generate revenue precisely because of the debt with it's huge interest rate and also because of the p&w engines trouble. THe last issue should be overcome by 2025-26. Without these 2 issues, the company would be making profits so their business plan seems to be all right

Without federal debt Canada would pay for healthcare for free essentially since interest payments are more than healthcare spending unfortunately the debt at AT exists and CCAA may give some help but with the value of aircraft especially the desirability of the neo’s their creditors may just cancel any orders and repurpose them to more stable airlines.

[Localizer]

This is just a return to mean.

You've completely ignored what I wrote above:

Transat is completely dropping three routes next summer, without adding anything new. They're increasing some frequencies, but also reducing others, so those balance out, and it isn't apparent that there's anything to replace the dropped routes.

These layoffs aren't just because of winter slowdowns, because they're reducing capacity next summer as well. They're going to be operating fewer flights throughout the year, and it doesn't seem like those FAs will be recalled in the spring.

Also, eliminating debt doesn't just magically make a company viable. They're not just massively indebted, they're also burning cash faster than they generate revenue. Wiping out a debt just means that they'll start digging the hole again right away. Bankruptcy doesn't miraculously save businesses that can't be maintained as going concerns.

Just a shit disturber who has no idea what they’re talking about.

There will be no ACMI’s operating and frames are down due to P&W issue, also, more FA’s required in summer than winter.

[Localizer]

You've completely ignored what I wrote above:



These layoffs aren't just because of winter slowdowns, because they're reducing capacity next summer as well. They're going to be operating fewer flights throughout the year, and it doesn't seem like those FAs will be recalled in the spring.

Also, eliminating debt doesn't just magically make a company viable. They're not just massively indebted, they're also burning cash faster than they generate revenue. Wiping out a debt just means that they'll start digging the hole again right away. Bankruptcy doesn't miraculously save businesses that can't be maintained as going concerns.

well obviously the company is burning cash faster than they generate revenue precisely because of the debt with it's huge interest rate and also because of the p&w engines trouble. THe last issue should be overcome by 2025-26. Without these 2 issues, the company would be making profits so their business plan seems to be all right

Without federal debt Canada would pay for healthcare for free essentially since interest payments are more than healthcare spending unfortunately the debt at AT exists and CCAA may give some help but with the value of aircraft especially the desirability of the neo’s their creditors may just cancel any orders and repurpose them to more stable airlines.

[Brakefans]

well obviously the company is burning cash faster than they generate revenue precisely because of the debt with it's huge interest rate and also because of the p&w engines trouble. THe last issue should be overcome by 2025-26. Without these 2 issues, the company would be making profits so their business plan seems to be all right

Debt servicing, engines issues, fuel prices, exchange rate, slowing economy… there’s always a good reason. Time to take it behind the barn and shoot it. Reality is that Canada/Europe market has more than enough capacity, there’s no need to bail anyone out.

[Landingstrip]

well obviously the company is burning cash faster than they generate revenue precisely because of the debt with it's huge interest rate and also because of the p&w engines trouble. THe last issue should be overcome by 2025-26. Without these 2 issues, the company would be making profits so their business plan seems to be all right

Debt servicing, engines issues, fuel prices, exchange rate, slowing economy… there’s always a good reason. Time to take it behind the barn and shoot it. Reality is that Canada/Europe market has more than enough capacity, there’s no need to bail anyone out.

Unfortunately I completely agree. Let's stop wasting tax dollars propping up businesses. Socializing losses and privatizing profits. It has to stop. Let things fail. We need our tax dollars going to things like infrastructure and military like its meant to be.

[CaptDukeNukem]

well obviously the company is burning cash faster than they generate revenue precisely because of the debt with it's huge interest rate and also because of the p&w engines trouble. THe last issue should be overcome by 2025-26. Without these 2 issues, the company would be making profits so their business plan seems to be all right

Debt servicing, engines issues, fuel prices, exchange rate, slowing economy… there’s always a good reason. Time to take it behind the barn and shoot it. Reality is that Canada/Europe market has more than enough capacity, there’s no need to bail anyone out.

Unfortunately I completely agree. Let's stop wasting tax dollars propping up businesses. Socializing losses and privatizing profits. It has to stop. Let things fail. We need our tax dollars going to things like infrastructure and military like its meant to be.

Military?

Lol. What?

[cdnavater]

Debt servicing, engines issues, fuel prices, exchange rate, slowing economy… there’s always a good reason. Time to take it behind the barn and shoot it. Reality is that Canada/Europe market has more than enough capacity, there’s no need to bail anyone out.

Unfortunately I completely agree. Let's stop wasting tax dollars propping up businesses. Socializing losses and privatizing profits. It has to stop. Let things fail. We need our tax dollars going to things like infrastructure and military like its meant to be.

Military?

Lol. What?

As usual your ignorance is present, Canada is way behind on military spending and forgiving a loan for almost a billion dollars for a company that is constantly not doing well would be better spent on the 42 billion shortfall on military spending it should be for NATO commitments.
Infrastructure also is better investment because it’s GOOD paying jobs that all Canadians benefit from, you know, like bridges and roads!

[CaptDukeNukem]

Unfortunately I completely agree. Let's stop wasting tax dollars propping up businesses. Socializing losses and privatizing profits. It has to stop. Let things fail. We need our tax dollars going to things like infrastructure and military like its meant to be.

Military?

Lol. What?

As usual your ignorance is present, Canada is way behind on military spending and forgiving a loan for almost a billion dollars for a company that is constantly not doing well would be better spent on the 42 billion shortfall on military spending it should be for NATO commitments.
Infrastructure also is better investment because it’s GOOD paying jobs that all Canadians benefit from, you know, like bridges and roads!

I think you need a hug.

I was laughing at our military. Yes it needs money. It needs trillions of dollars in my opinion.

We buy 30 year old submarines that don’t float from the UK.

We have f-18s flying across the country from bagotville to cold lake pretending like they do things.

We have Hercules aircraft looking for a ELT signal from a training airport.

I suggest that my tax dollars be used with common sense. And this isn’t happening

[cdnavater]

Military?

Lol. What?

As usual your ignorance is present, Canada is way behind on military spending and forgiving a loan for almost a billion dollars for a company that is constantly not doing well would be better spent on the 42 billion shortfall on military spending it should be for NATO commitments.
Infrastructure also is better investment because it’s GOOD paying jobs that all Canadians benefit from, you know, like bridges and roads!

I think you need a hug.

I was laughing at our military. Yes it needs money. It needs trillions of dollars in my opinion.

We buy 30 year old submarines that don’t float from the UK.

We have f-18s flying across the country from bagotville to cold lake pretending like they do things.

We have Hercules aircraft looking for a ELT signal from a training airport.

I suggest that my tax dollars be used with common sense. And this isn’t happening

Ok, that makes more sense, common sense, vote Poilievre!

[CaptDukeNukem]

As usual your ignorance is present, Canada is way behind on military spending and forgiving a loan for almost a billion dollars for a company that is constantly not doing well would be better spent on the 42 billion shortfall on military spending it should be for NATO commitments.
Infrastructure also is better investment because it’s GOOD paying jobs that all Canadians benefit from, you know, like bridges and roads!

I think you need a hug.

I was laughing at our military. Yes it needs money. It needs trillions of dollars in my opinion.

We buy 30 year old submarines that don’t float from the UK.

We have f-18s flying across the country from bagotville to cold lake pretending like they do things.

We have Hercules aircraft looking for a ELT signal from a training airport.

I suggest that my tax dollars be used with common sense. And this isn’t happening

Ok, that makes more sense, common sense, vote Poilievre!

Axe the tax!