Dreamliner Down in India

[cdnavater]

Data recorder(s?) are going to U.S for reading, talking about damage which is not surprising.
Investigators seem to be confirming the RAT was out, there is a caveat to that, it apparently could come out for hydraulic loss as well. I don’t think that would cause the descent into the ground.
Preliminary report expected in a month.

[pdw]

If the crash was the result of performance due to atmospheric conditions, then it's because of incorrect loading and/or incorrect programming where the airplane was configured for failure.

Looking at some of the higher groundspeeds (see max tire-speed discussions Bolivia/la pas) needed at high altitudes to get airborne it’s possible the groundspeed achieved here at the chosen power setting may not have been quite enough for these “atmospheric conditions”, seeing also the density altitude got to a record (higher) in early altitude. Anybody see that unbelievable DA number?
.

[Rooster69]

Alright folks. Please, of please, stop quoting the obviously moronic, talking out of their rear end’s, posters. I have the clowns blocked but then they get quoted and voila their posts pop up. I feel slightly stupider every time I read some of the uneducated posts.

Cheers.

[Jean-Pierre]

If the crash was the result of performance due to atmospheric conditions, then it's because of incorrect loading and/or incorrect programming where the airplane was configured for failure.

Looking at some of the higher groundspeeds (see max tire-speed discussions Bolivia/la pas) needed at high altitudes to get airborne it’s possible the groundspeed achieved here at the chosen power setting may not have been quite enough for these “atmospheric conditions”, seeing also the density altitude got to a record (higher) in early altitude. Anybody see that unbelievable DA number?
.

True.

[Eric Janson]

I can't think of a scenario where both engines would fail at exactly the same time. If they failed at exactly the same time I can only think there must have been some corruption or fault in the FADEC system.

How about this for a possible scenario? They lose an engine at (or approaching) V1. I"m guessing the right engine. They continue the takeoff (hence the long take-off roll). They get airborne on one engine and in the heat of the moment someone thinks they are shutting down and securing the failed engine but instead shuts down the good engine.

Thoughts?

I would expect to see the aircraft yaw and see some rudder input if this was the case.

The video quality isn't great but I can't see either.

Hopefully we will get some more info after 30 days.

[cdnavater]

I can't think of a scenario where both engines would fail at exactly the same time. If they failed at exactly the same time I can only think there must have been some corruption or fault in the FADEC system.

How about this for a possible scenario? They lose an engine at (or approaching) V1. I"m guessing the right engine. They continue the takeoff (hence the long take-off roll). They get airborne on one engine and in the heat of the moment someone thinks they are shutting down and securing the failed engine but instead shuts down the good engine.

Thoughts?

I would expect to see the aircraft yaw and see some rudder input if this was the case.

The video quality isn't great but I can't see either.

Hopefully we will get some more info after 30 days.

I just heard that the Captain said, paraphrasing it, failed to achieve thrust, falling, mayday mayday mayday

[cncpc]

I just heard that the Captain said, paraphrasing it, failed to achieve thrust, falling, mayday mayday mayday

Do we know it was the Captain said this? It contains a cause analysis, "failed to achieve thrust" and I would expect that is something that would come from the Captain. As it is paraphrased, it leaves open one other possibility. Failed to achieve (takeoff, adequate, any, etc) thrust.

"Falling" indicates that the Mayday followed the beginning of descent, not at liftoff or before.

[Dry Guy]

No, they are making up quotes to fit their theory.

[cdnavater]

No, they are making up quotes to fit their theory.

Who is “they”? Got it from this guy who does his research and by his own admission doesn’t usually comment this early in an investigation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIgnR0zw3FU

[Dias]

I just see another YouTuber profiting off people's deaths with wild clickbait theories that aren't logical.

[Dias]

Are we sure the fuel wasn't half full of water? Monsoon season recently started and maybe a storage tank hatch is leaky. It would be easy to test but perhaps they're embarrassed to say that's what happened. Like how Malaysia is embarrassed to say their pilot killed everyone on purpose.

[30westpirate]

If there was a major aircraft fault (FADEC corruption or some crazy anomaly) the FAA would’ve had an emergency AD out by now.

The engine failure drill starts at 400 AGL, they got to 630 feet. Probably they shut down the wrong engine. Or fuel contamination.

[Dias]

625' ASL. AMD is at 189 feet ASL.

[pdw]

180ft ASL at departure end (AMD 05 thresh/skyvector-info).

At terminal location (189ft) how high up is the temperature gauge itself situated ?

[55+]

I would make an assumption at this point there is enough data taken from both recorders to present investigators a direction to look at in analyzing the sequence of events up to and including impact. What struck me the aircraft lifted off , climbed wings level, landing gear extended and then at some point a catastrophic loss of lift. I didn’t see any wing drop, yaw or surface movement also the aircraft seemed to maintain the nose attitude until it hit the building. However enhancement of the available video especially the departure example may reveal differences.
This certainly could be a “ human factors “ deadly crash. No doubt the complete picture will be known in due time. On a more appalling note there were elements of social media posting pictures and video of human remains, thankfully MSN didn’t stoop that low.

[Dias]

180ft ASL at departure end (AMD 05 thresh/skyvector-info).

At terminal location (189ft) how high up is the temperature gauge itself situated ?

4.8m

[Dry Guy]

If there was a major aircraft fault (FADEC corruption or some crazy anomaly) the FAA would’ve had an emergency AD out by now.

They haven't even looked at the black box data yet. India is still deciding if they want to send them to America or try to read them themselves. They say they are damaged. I'm starting to feel we may never know what truly happened.

[pdw]

180ft ASL at departure end (AMD 05 thresh/skyvector-info).

At terminal location (189ft) how high up is the temperature gauge itself situated ?

4.8m

Down on the river water-elev is 40m ASL, which, then it would be 21-22m (70ft) lower than the airport thermometer readings. For that DA (at-rotation DA calculation) using 1:30pm numbers of wundermap IAHMED42 (Thaltej wundermap station 5nm west of the river/6nm WNW of accident-alt location) would be a 2926ft DA for that 180ft rotation-elevation. (If temp 90F & dewpoint 75F with 29.59 down closer to the river … DA 2600ft)

For the accident altitude DA (437agl of airport), the start of acc sequence is 507ft higher than river-elevation (using early altitude numbers reported), there is a (Chekhla) wundermap station 15nm east of this airport (well away from the river); that data IMO is already super indicative of a much-higher DA just ‘above the deck’. The significant air current moving immediately above this hot/dry-air inversion transition is a massive NE flow sinking/drawing/subsiding out of much higher and hottest elevations east/northeast of AMD into LO out onto the cooler/cooling ocean towards southwest.

[pdw]

Checkhla/Sanand wundermap weather station O310 ISANAN83:

Noting the data from 2:30pm to allow for airmass (the extreme heat/dry inversion air nearing 45C plus from NE) travel southward/westward from above AMD accident/sequence-start location. Also, using the 29.76 Chekhla barometer reading can interpolate for the even 1000ft msl, in rounding the 507ft estimation above river/water elevation to nearest 1000 ASL.

Surface pressure at Chekhla station 29.76, interpolates 28.89 for 1000-ft msl/870ft-agl above that area. Temp for Chekhla/Sanand records 110F and dew point 78F. That already reaches a DA of 4773.8ft using those numbers for the1000ASL flight level there, combined with that station’s ENE/NE flow/surface-readings around that time. This weather station’s location is 12nm west of the local river where it flows nearest the accident sequence-start/altitude site.

edit: The camera angle is from a raised (10-20ft higher) location and runway 23 slopes down 9ft in tkof southwest. Q: From such downward camera angle how would that additional height/angle from a pole etc affect those views of what altitude appears to be attained using that wingspan width comparison/measurement half-mile or more beyond the runway departure-end already?

[Eric Janson]

If there was a major aircraft fault (FADEC corruption or some crazy anomaly) the FAA would’ve had an emergency AD out by now.

The engine failure drill starts at 400 AGL, they got to 630 feet. Probably they shut down the wrong engine. Or fuel contamination.

The altitudes quoted all appear to come from the ADS-B data.

My understanding is that these are uncorrected based on a 1013.25/29.92 altimeter setting

The aircraft never reached 400' agl as is clearly shown on the video.

[SpyPilot]

It would appear that pdw has stepped up his game to an even higher level of WTF.

[pdw]

A WTF Accident (SpyPilot tm)

clearly shown

The wingspan, and some; that looks more like 300’. It definitely appears lower than suggested on early data (the top of the tailfin, the nose, wingtips … yeah they’re scratching 300’ for sure)

[pdw]

At terminal location (189ft) how high up is the temperature gauge itself situated ?

4.8m

I understood at major airports the height of the anemometer is a min 33ft high (10m), but wasn’t aware of the temp or barometer.

EDIT!
((Can we import a smoke photo image such as the one “taken from a distance” from the Simon Hadecky site? Just realized it seems to have been taken from a SW angle (pointing NE) and captures both that lower heavy smoke of the acc going right as well as then the higher/thinning inversion drifting/going overhead the camera shot/angle. That type of photo can highlight the LL shear transition for illustration.))

[Pacqing]

I thought he was removed, I'm tired of reading "the smoke blowing out his butt"

[Rooster69]

It would appear that pdw has stepped up his game to an even higher level of WTF.

lol.

It is like, tell me you understand nothing about aviation by writing complete gibberish.