Westjet Buys 67 Boeing Planes

[lowoleo22]

Do we think Boeing will be able to deliver these orders? Will this create new hiring or is it simply to replace aging tails?

WestJet said on Wednesday it ordered 67 Boeing aircraft as part of a fleet renewal, including seven 787-9 Dreamliners, and 60 737-10 MAX narrowbodies as part of a fleet renewal plan.

The Calgary-based carrier said it also secured options for an additional 25 737-10 MAX and four Dreamliners, with deliveries running through 2034.

WestJet currently operates 193 passenger aircraft and has an order book of 123 jets and 40 options.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/calgary/article/ ... ewal-plan/

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I think it’ll be new hiring because all the news articles are referring to this as growth rather than replacements. The big question for me is when will the hiring start?

[daedalusx]

Some growth, some retirement will lead to some hiring… eventually. The airline is somewhat well staffed now post Sunwing integration and only taking 20 more pilots from the encore flow and those are mostly because of Sunwing crews going to AC or other opportunities.

And remember there’s also 34x 700 going away and Boeing ain’t delivering shit right now so it’ll take some time for the music to start again, especially considering this is a Max10 order which most likely won’t get certified until mid-late 2026 …

We still don’t have a fix for the LRD or the EAI problems on the Max8

[safetyfirst123]

Everybody seems to have high block hours, so I don't think the airline is that well staffed considering more are leaving due to the reduction bid out east. Supposedly hiring is to commence in January, and my guess is it will continue for the foreseeable future.

[dc-9-31]

Some growth, some retirement will lead to some hiring… eventually. The airline is somewhat well staffed now post Sunwing integration and only taking 20 more pilots from the encore flow and those are mostly because of Sunwing crews going to AC or other opportunities.

And remember there’s also 34x 700 going away and Boeing ain’t delivering shit right now so it’ll take some time for the music to start again, especially considering this is a Max10 order which most likely won’t get certified until mid-late 2026 …

We still don’t have a fix for the LRD or the EAI problems on the Max8

Boeing is averaging over 40 narrow-body deliveries per month recently.

[-TSRA]

Lets find the answer with mathematics.

The pilots per plane ratio at WJ right now are:

2,134 pilots/150 planes = 14.2 pilots per 737

209 pilots/7 planes = 29.9 pilots per 787

First, I'll focus on the narrobody side.

WJ currently operates 94NGs (36 -700s; 58 -800s) and 56 MAXs. (150 total narrow bodies)

The current order book (past, plus today's announcement) is for a total of 116 MAXs and 36 options (a split between -8s and -10s, but that's irrelevant since it won't affect pilot ratios much). Given all this, here is a scenario based approach to growth and pilot hiring:

Worst-case scenario:

Replace every NG; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 94 = 22 net new aircraft (2.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 2.4 x 14.2 = 34 net new pilots per year.

Mid-case scenario 1:

Replace every NG; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 94 = 58 net new aircraft (6.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 6.4 x 14.2 = 91 net new pilots per year.

Mid-case scenario 2:

Replace 700s only; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 36 = 80 net new aircraft (8.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 8.9 x 14.2 = 126 net new pilots per year.

Better case scenario:

Replace 700s; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 36 = 116 net new aircraft (12.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 12.9 x 14.2 = 183 net new pilots per year.

Best (but highly unlikely) scenario:

Keep all planes; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 = 152 net new aircraft (16.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 16.9 x 14.2 = 240 net new pilots per year.

Summary: Over the next 9 years, the narrow body fleet will grow by between 22 and 152 net new aircraft resulting in a net new hiring of 312 to 2,158 pilots, not accounting for pilot retirements.

Now for the heavies. I'll keep this one simple since we don't have any publicly available delivery dates yet.

Worst case scenario:

7 new Dreamliners; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 net new aircraft. 7 x 29.9 = 209 net new pilots over the next 9 years.

Best case scenario:

7 new Dreamliners; all options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 + 4 = 11 net new aircraft. 11 x 29.9 = 329 net new pilots over the next 9 years.

Retirements:

401 total retirements over the next 9 years.

Grand summary for the next 9 years:

Worst case scenario: 29 net new tails; 922 total new hires (312 NB, 209 WB, 401 retirements). (102 pilots per year; 8.5 per month)

Best case scenario: 163 net new tails; 2,888 total new hires (2,158 NB, 329 WB, 401 retirements). (321 pilots per year; 27 per month)

The real number will be somewhere in between. PS, obviously this doesn't include attrition.

[flieslikeachicken]

WestJet under Onex likes to order 737 types that are not yet certified, hold the order for several years, then complain and cancel/modify.

I initially wrote MAX types, but then remembered that they chose to go for the uncertified 737BCF over the several already certified conversions.

[CaptDukeNukem]

Lets find the answer with mathematics.

The pilots per plane ratio at WJ right now are:

2,134 pilots/150 planes = 14.2 pilots per 737

209 pilots/7 planes = 29.9 pilots per 787

First, I'll focus on the narrobody side.

WJ currently operates 94NGs (36 -700s; 58 -800s) and 56 MAXs. (150 total narrow bodies)

The current order book (past, plus today's announcement) is for a total of 116 MAXs and 36 options (a split between -8s and -10s, but that's irrelevant since it won't affect pilot ratios much). Given all this, here is a scenario based approach to growth and pilot hiring:

Worst-case scenario:

Replace every NG; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 94 = 22 net new aircraft (2.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 2.4 x 14.2 = 34 net new pilots per year.

Mid-case scenario 1:

Replace every NG; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 94 = 58 net new aircraft (6.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 6.4 x 14.2 = 91 net new pilots per year.

Mid-case scenario 2:

Replace 700s only; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 36 = 80 net new aircraft (8.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 8.9 x 14.2 = 126 net new pilots per year.

Better case scenario:

Replace 700s; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 36 = 116 net new aircraft (12.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 12.9 x 14.2 = 183 net new pilots per year.

Best (but highly unlikely) scenario:

Keep all planes; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 = 152 net new aircraft (16.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 16.9 x 14.2 = 240 net new pilots per year.

Summary: Over the next 9 years, the narrow body fleet will grow by between 22 and 152 net new aircraft resulting in a net new hiring of 312 to 2,158 pilots, not accounting for pilot retirements.

Now for the heavies. I'll keep this one simple since we don't have any publicly available delivery dates yet.

Worst case scenario:

7 new Dreamliners; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 net new aircraft. 7 x 29.9 = 209 net new pilots over the next 9 years.

Best case scenario:

7 new Dreamliners; all options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 + 4 = 11 net new aircraft. 11 x 29.9 = 329 net new pilots over the next 9 years.

Retirements:

401 total retirements over the next 9 years.

Grand summary for the next 9 years:

Worst case scenario: 29 net new tails; 922 total new hires (312 NB, 209 WB, 401 retirements). (102 pilots per year; 8.5 per month)

Best case scenario: 163 net new tails; 2,888 total new hires (2,158 NB, 329 WB, 401 retirements). (321 pilots per year; 27 per month)

The real number will be somewhere in between. PS, obviously this doesn't include attrition.

Holy crap dude. Use chatGPT much? Ask it how many girlfriends you’ll have in your life

[-TSRA]

Lets find the answer with mathematics.

The pilots per plane ratio at WJ right now are:

2,134 pilots/150 planes = 14.2 pilots per 737

209 pilots/7 planes = 29.9 pilots per 787

First, I'll focus on the narrobody side.

WJ currently operates 94NGs (36 -700s; 58 -800s) and 56 MAXs. (150 total narrow bodies)

The current order book (past, plus today's announcement) is for a total of 116 MAXs and 36 options (a split between -8s and -10s, but that's irrelevant since it won't affect pilot ratios much). Given all this, here is a scenario based approach to growth and pilot hiring:

Worst-case scenario:

Replace every NG; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 94 = 22 net new aircraft (2.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 2.4 x 14.2 = 34 net new pilots per year.

Mid-case scenario 1:

Replace every NG; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 94 = 58 net new aircraft (6.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 6.4 x 14.2 = 91 net new pilots per year.

Mid-case scenario 2:

Replace 700s only; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 36 = 80 net new aircraft (8.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 8.9 x 14.2 = 126 net new pilots per year.

Better case scenario:

Replace 700s; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 36 = 116 net new aircraft (12.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 12.9 x 14.2 = 183 net new pilots per year.

Best (but highly unlikely) scenario:

Keep all planes; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 = 152 net new aircraft (16.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 16.9 x 14.2 = 240 net new pilots per year.

Summary: Over the next 9 years, the narrow body fleet will grow by between 22 and 152 net new aircraft resulting in a net new hiring of 312 to 2,158 pilots, not accounting for pilot retirements.

Now for the heavies. I'll keep this one simple since we don't have any publicly available delivery dates yet.

Worst case scenario:

7 new Dreamliners; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 net new aircraft. 7 x 29.9 = 209 net new pilots over the next 9 years.

Best case scenario:

7 new Dreamliners; all options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 + 4 = 11 net new aircraft. 11 x 29.9 = 329 net new pilots over the next 9 years.

Retirements:

401 total retirements over the next 9 years.

Grand summary for the next 9 years:

Worst case scenario: 29 net new tails; 922 total new hires (312 NB, 209 WB, 401 retirements). (102 pilots per year; 8.5 per month)

Best case scenario: 163 net new tails; 2,888 total new hires (2,158 NB, 329 WB, 401 retirements). (321 pilots per year; 27 per month)

The real number will be somewhere in between. PS, obviously this doesn't include attrition.

Holy crap dude. Use chatGPT much? Ask it how many girlfriends you’ll have in your life

There are services out there that can show if AI has been used to compose text. I highly recommend them for those who have lost faith in another human’s ability to write more than 2 organized sentences. Also, happily married, but Thanks for your thoughts…

[CaptDukeNukem]

Lets find the answer with mathematics.

The pilots per plane ratio at WJ right now are:

2,134 pilots/150 planes = 14.2 pilots per 737

209 pilots/7 planes = 29.9 pilots per 787

First, I'll focus on the narrobody side.

WJ currently operates 94NGs (36 -700s; 58 -800s) and 56 MAXs. (150 total narrow bodies)

The current order book (past, plus today's announcement) is for a total of 116 MAXs and 36 options (a split between -8s and -10s, but that's irrelevant since it won't affect pilot ratios much). Given all this, here is a scenario based approach to growth and pilot hiring:

Worst-case scenario:

Replace every NG; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 94 = 22 net new aircraft (2.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 2.4 x 14.2 = 34 net new pilots per year.

Mid-case scenario 1:

Replace every NG; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 94 = 58 net new aircraft (6.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 6.4 x 14.2 = 91 net new pilots per year.

Mid-case scenario 2:

Replace 700s only; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 36 = 80 net new aircraft (8.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 8.9 x 14.2 = 126 net new pilots per year.

Better case scenario:

Replace 700s; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 36 = 116 net new aircraft (12.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 12.9 x 14.2 = 183 net new pilots per year.

Best (but highly unlikely) scenario:

Keep all planes; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 = 152 net new aircraft (16.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 16.9 x 14.2 = 240 net new pilots per year.

Summary: Over the next 9 years, the narrow body fleet will grow by between 22 and 152 net new aircraft resulting in a net new hiring of 312 to 2,158 pilots, not accounting for pilot retirements.

Now for the heavies. I'll keep this one simple since we don't have any publicly available delivery dates yet.

Worst case scenario:

7 new Dreamliners; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 net new aircraft. 7 x 29.9 = 209 net new pilots over the next 9 years.

Best case scenario:

7 new Dreamliners; all options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 + 4 = 11 net new aircraft. 11 x 29.9 = 329 net new pilots over the next 9 years.

Retirements:

401 total retirements over the next 9 years.

Grand summary for the next 9 years:

Worst case scenario: 29 net new tails; 922 total new hires (312 NB, 209 WB, 401 retirements). (102 pilots per year; 8.5 per month)

Best case scenario: 163 net new tails; 2,888 total new hires (2,158 NB, 329 WB, 401 retirements). (321 pilots per year; 27 per month)

The real number will be somewhere in between. PS, obviously this doesn't include attrition.

Holy crap dude. Use chatGPT much? Ask it how many girlfriends you’ll have in your life

There are services out there that can show if AI has been used to compose text. I highly recommend them for those who have lost faith in another human’s ability to write more than 2 organized sentences. Also, happily married, but Thanks for your thoughts…

lol. K.

That’s all I have to say.

[JBI]

Holy crap dude. Use chatGPT much? Ask it how many girlfriends you’ll have in your life

How is this chatGPT? Looks like some solid basic math with clear assumptions.

WestJet will be the first to tell you that they don't determine staffing on crews per plane, but rather number of block hours. Nonetheless, crews per plane is a good assumption at its starting point.

The current unknown variables are how quickly deliveries will be made. Boeing does seem to be ramping up production of the 737 Max and they're behind to WJ on something like 20+ 737s.

[daedalusx]

Holy crap dude. Use chatGPT much? Ask it how many girlfriends you’ll have in your life

How is this chatGPT? Looks like some solid basic math with clear assumptions.

WestJet will be the first to tell you that they don't determine staffing on crews per plane, but rather number of block hours. Nonetheless, crews per plane is a good assumption at its starting point.

The current unknown variables are how quickly deliveries will be made. Boeing does seem to be ramping up production of the 737 Max and they're behind to WJ on something like 20+ 737s.

Exactly. This isn’t ChatGPT slop by a mile, just some rare high quality effort posting.

[-TSRA]

Holy crap dude. Use chatGPT much? Ask it how many girlfriends you’ll have in your life

WestJet will be the first to tell you that they don't determine staffing on crews per plane, but rather number of block hours.

No doubt. But without suitable info and projections, I wouldn’t know where to begin to make a prediction for future block hours. I think a plane/pilot ratio is the next best proxy. It’s not perfect. For example, doubling the 787 fleet will make a big difference in scale so the widebody ratio may decline a little going forward. On the other hand attrition will likely more than make up for that when it comes to total pilots needed.

[co-joe]

That's some solid math there. I respect and can relate to someone who has a math mind. There's really no bad news for WSers with this aircraft order other than the darn thing isn't certified, but converting -10 orders into -8s would mean the same thing for crew numbers. Maybe Onex actually wants to run an airline after all.

[safetyfirst123]

I will echo posts above, thank you -TSRA for your contribution here. Nukem, not so much. I also like to look at numbers based on realistic assumptions to get an idea of where the ship is going. Right now this likely means indefinite hiring at Westjet, which is a good thing for everybody. Maybe management stating they need to hire 400 pilots next year isn't too far off.

[cdnavater]

Lets find the answer with mathematics.

The pilots per plane ratio at WJ right now are:

2,134 pilots/150 planes = 14.2 pilots per 737

209 pilots/7 planes = 29.9 pilots per 787

First, I'll focus on the narrobody side.

WJ currently operates 94NGs (36 -700s; 58 -800s) and 56 MAXs. (150 total narrow bodies)

The current order book (past, plus today's announcement) is for a total of 116 MAXs and 36 options (a split between -8s and -10s, but that's irrelevant since it won't affect pilot ratios much). Given all this, here is a scenario based approach to growth and pilot hiring:

Worst-case scenario:

Replace every NG; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 94 = 22 net new aircraft (2.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 2.4 x 14.2 = 34 net new pilots per year.

Mid-case scenario 1:

Replace every NG; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 94 = 58 net new aircraft (6.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 6.4 x 14.2 = 91 net new pilots per year.

Mid-case scenario 2:

Replace 700s only; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 36 = 80 net new aircraft (8.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 8.9 x 14.2 = 126 net new pilots per year.

Better case scenario:

Replace 700s; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 36 = 116 net new aircraft (12.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 12.9 x 14.2 = 183 net new pilots per year.

Best (but highly unlikely) scenario:

Keep all planes; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 = 152 net new aircraft (16.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 16.9 x 14.2 = 240 net new pilots per year.

Summary: Over the next 9 years, the narrow body fleet will grow by between 22 and 152 net new aircraft resulting in a net new hiring of 312 to 2,158 pilots, not accounting for pilot retirements.

Now for the heavies. I'll keep this one simple since we don't have any publicly available delivery dates yet.

Worst case scenario:

7 new Dreamliners; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 net new aircraft. 7 x 29.9 = 209 net new pilots over the next 9 years.

Best case scenario:

7 new Dreamliners; all options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 + 4 = 11 net new aircraft. 11 x 29.9 = 329 net new pilots over the next 9 years.

Retirements:

401 total retirements over the next 9 years.

Grand summary for the next 9 years:

Worst case scenario: 29 net new tails; 922 total new hires (312 NB, 209 WB, 401 retirements). (102 pilots per year; 8.5 per month)

Best case scenario: 163 net new tails; 2,888 total new hires (2,158 NB, 329 WB, 401 retirements). (321 pilots per year; 27 per month)

The real number will be somewhere in between. PS, obviously this doesn't include attrition.

Your worst case is missing something, I don’t know the answer but how many of the 56 Max aircraft are leased and approaching heavy checks.
9 years is a long time to not factor in lease returns of some or all of the Maxes in that time period.

[fish4life]

Lets find the answer with mathematics.

The pilots per plane ratio at WJ right now are:

2,134 pilots/150 planes = 14.2 pilots per 737

209 pilots/7 planes = 29.9 pilots per 787

First, I'll focus on the narrobody side.

WJ currently operates 94NGs (36 -700s; 58 -800s) and 56 MAXs. (150 total narrow bodies)

The current order book (past, plus today's announcement) is for a total of 116 MAXs and 36 options (a split between -8s and -10s, but that's irrelevant since it won't affect pilot ratios much). Given all this, here is a scenario based approach to growth and pilot hiring:

Worst-case scenario:

Replace every NG; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 94 = 22 net new aircraft (2.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 2.4 x 14.2 = 34 net new pilots per year.

Mid-case scenario 1:

Replace every NG; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 94 = 58 net new aircraft (6.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 6.4 x 14.2 = 91 net new pilots per year.

Mid-case scenario 2:

Replace 700s only; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 36 = 80 net new aircraft (8.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 8.9 x 14.2 = 126 net new pilots per year.

Better case scenario:

Replace 700s; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 36 = 116 net new aircraft (12.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 12.9 x 14.2 = 183 net new pilots per year.

Best (but highly unlikely) scenario:

Keep all planes; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 = 152 net new aircraft (16.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 16.9 x 14.2 = 240 net new pilots per year.

Summary: Over the next 9 years, the narrow body fleet will grow by between 22 and 152 net new aircraft resulting in a net new hiring of 312 to 2,158 pilots, not accounting for pilot retirements.

Now for the heavies. I'll keep this one simple since we don't have any publicly available delivery dates yet.

Worst case scenario:

7 new Dreamliners; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 net new aircraft. 7 x 29.9 = 209 net new pilots over the next 9 years.

Best case scenario:

7 new Dreamliners; all options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 + 4 = 11 net new aircraft. 11 x 29.9 = 329 net new pilots over the next 9 years.

Retirements:

401 total retirements over the next 9 years.

Grand summary for the next 9 years:

Worst case scenario: 29 net new tails; 922 total new hires (312 NB, 209 WB, 401 retirements). (102 pilots per year; 8.5 per month)

Best case scenario: 163 net new tails; 2,888 total new hires (2,158 NB, 329 WB, 401 retirements). (321 pilots per year; 27 per month)

The real number will be somewhere in between. PS, obviously this doesn't include attrition.

Your worst case is missing something, I don’t know the answer but how many of the 56 Max aircraft are leased and approaching heavy checks.
9 years is a long time to not factor in lease returns of some or all of the Maxes in that time period.

On the low end airlines tend to get rid of planes that are 20 years old so between them sitting around during the grounding and Covid I’d be surprised if any airlines are retiring and of their Max’s before 2034 other than the odd hanger queen

[planenuts]

Non of the maxes are even close to being on the chopping block. All the 700's are leaving and the 800's will slowly be phased out over the coming years. We'll probably still have a bunch in 2030 so they will be around in numbers for a while yet. I believe we will eventually exercise all options......now - if we could only get rid of the Q's...

[cdnavater]

Lets find the answer with mathematics.

The pilots per plane ratio at WJ right now are:

2,134 pilots/150 planes = 14.2 pilots per 737

209 pilots/7 planes = 29.9 pilots per 787

First, I'll focus on the narrobody side.

WJ currently operates 94NGs (36 -700s; 58 -800s) and 56 MAXs. (150 total narrow bodies)

The current order book (past, plus today's announcement) is for a total of 116 MAXs and 36 options (a split between -8s and -10s, but that's irrelevant since it won't affect pilot ratios much). Given all this, here is a scenario based approach to growth and pilot hiring:

Worst-case scenario:

Replace every NG; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 94 = 22 net new aircraft (2.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 2.4 x 14.2 = 34 net new pilots per year.

Mid-case scenario 1:

Replace every NG; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 94 = 58 net new aircraft (6.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 6.4 x 14.2 = 91 net new pilots per year.

Mid-case scenario 2:

Replace 700s only; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 36 = 80 net new aircraft (8.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 8.9 x 14.2 = 126 net new pilots per year.

Better case scenario:

Replace 700s; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 36 = 116 net new aircraft (12.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 12.9 x 14.2 = 183 net new pilots per year.

Best (but highly unlikely) scenario:

Keep all planes; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 = 152 net new aircraft (16.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 16.9 x 14.2 = 240 net new pilots per year.

Summary: Over the next 9 years, the narrow body fleet will grow by between 22 and 152 net new aircraft resulting in a net new hiring of 312 to 2,158 pilots, not accounting for pilot retirements.

Now for the heavies. I'll keep this one simple since we don't have any publicly available delivery dates yet.

Worst case scenario:

7 new Dreamliners; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 net new aircraft. 7 x 29.9 = 209 net new pilots over the next 9 years.

Best case scenario:

7 new Dreamliners; all options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 + 4 = 11 net new aircraft. 11 x 29.9 = 329 net new pilots over the next 9 years.

Retirements:

401 total retirements over the next 9 years.

Grand summary for the next 9 years:

Worst case scenario: 29 net new tails; 922 total new hires (312 NB, 209 WB, 401 retirements). (102 pilots per year; 8.5 per month)

Best case scenario: 163 net new tails; 2,888 total new hires (2,158 NB, 329 WB, 401 retirements). (321 pilots per year; 27 per month)

The real number will be somewhere in between. PS, obviously this doesn't include attrition.

Your worst case is missing something, I don’t know the answer but how many of the 56 Max aircraft are leased and approaching heavy checks.
9 years is a long time to not factor in lease returns of some or all of the Maxes in that time period.

On the low end airlines tend to get rid of planes that are 20 years old so between them sitting around during the grounding and Covid I’d be surprised if any airlines are retiring and of their Max’s before 2034 other than the odd hanger queen

Note that I said leased, airlines don’t retire owned airplanes but leases often go back before the expensive heavy checks are due.

[safetyfirst123]

Non of the maxes are even close to being on the chopping block. All the 700's are leaving and the 800's will slowly be phased out over the coming years. We'll probably still have a bunch in 2030 so they will be around in numbers for a while yet. I believe we will eventually exercise all options......now - if we could only get rid of the Q's...

Serious question, why get rid of the Q? Unless Westjet got smaller jets such as the E2 or A220?

[-TSRA]

Your worst case is missing something, I don’t know the answer but how many of the 56 Max aircraft are leased and approaching heavy checks.
9 years is a long time to not factor in lease returns of some or all of the Maxes in that time period.

On the low end airlines tend to get rid of planes that are 20 years old so between them sitting around during the grounding and Covid I’d be surprised if any airlines are retiring and of their Max’s before 2034 other than the odd hanger queen

Note that I said leased, airlines don’t retire owned airplanes but leases often go back before the expensive heavy checks are due.

You’re not wrong in the sense that my back of the envelope math excluded MAX retirements. The question I wanted to answer is the same one that many of our colleagues are asking: how many NGs are we retiring? What is the worst case scenario if we retire all NGs and convert no options?

Many feel frustrated that management isn’t directly answering that question. I don’t speak for management, but I imagine that’s for 2 reasons:
1. Forward looking uncertainty. The company itself doesn’t know how growth will pan out over the next 10 years. They run similar (albeit much more rigorous) best/worst case scenario analyses as I did. There are numerous macro factors beyond management’s control that also affect the ability to grow.
2. Signaling growth as a competitive advantage. Imagine if management said “we’re buying 100 MAXs, and retiring 100 NGs.” How would you manage your strategy if you were a competitor? Having a large order book combined with ambiguity regarding fleet replacement is a great hedge against competitors’ strategies. It prepares WJ for growth, but hedges against the risk of it not working out by retaining the ability to return leases/retire owned a/c.

In a sense, the worst case scenario is worse even than returning some MAX leases. One can argue that the company could start shrinking and even eventually disappear. Such assumptions were beyond the scope of what I was trying to figure out.

[-TSRA]

Right now this likely means indefinite hiring at Westjet, which is a good thing for everybody. Maybe management stating they need to hire 400 pilots next year isn't too far off.

If I were to guess, I’d say hiring will pick up significantly once more 787s show up. I think over the next 2-3 years you’ll see slight growth - perhaps 3 -700s retired for every 4 MAX deliveries. I imagine all -700s will be gone or close to gone before we even have a single new Dreamliner on the property. (Anecdotally, have a look at how many -700s have starlink installed. I believe the answer is zero. Why invest in a machine you don’t plan on operating for much longer?).

Once the Dreamliners show up, growth and hiring will pick up. This will be in part because of the widebodies, but also because the 737 fleet growth will start becoming more noticeable in order to feed the long haul ops. So for hiring projections, I’d estimate some hiring picking up over the next 3 years followed by much more aggressive hiring towards the end of the decade and into the ‘30s. But this is just my own best guess with no insider knowledge.

[crystalpizza]

The other elephant in the room here that may be worth mentioning is the (current) uncertain long term future of Encore. Someone in this thread did mention getting rid of the Q's, which is a valid point as some of them will surpass 20 years in service in the next 10 years. Will there be a fleet renewal for those as well at some point; will they shrink/be folded into WJ mainline with the flying picked up by the additional 737s; does WJ think it's feasible to revert to the pre-2013 operation with 737s flying regional routes at a lower frequency. Etc, etc.

[Mach1]

Honestly, there's not point in projecting into the future with WJ.

Maybe it'll grow like a weed. Maybe it'll shrink.

What will happen for certain is, we'll get a new CEO and everything being done and planned now will be erased and replaced with the vision of the new CEO. All this has happened before, and all this will happen again.

[Gear Jerker]

Lets find the answer with mathematics.

The pilots per plane ratio at WJ right now are:

2,134 pilots/150 planes = 14.2 pilots per 737

209 pilots/7 planes = 29.9 pilots per 787

First, I'll focus on the narrobody side.

WJ currently operates 94NGs (36 -700s; 58 -800s) and 56 MAXs. (150 total narrow bodies)

The current order book (past, plus today's announcement) is for a total of 116 MAXs and 36 options (a split between -8s and -10s, but that's irrelevant since it won't affect pilot ratios much). Given all this, here is a scenario based approach to growth and pilot hiring:

Worst-case scenario:

Replace every NG; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 94 = 22 net new aircraft (2.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 2.4 x 14.2 = 34 net new pilots per year.

Mid-case scenario 1:

Replace every NG; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 94 = 58 net new aircraft (6.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 6.4 x 14.2 = 91 net new pilots per year.

Mid-case scenario 2:

Replace 700s only; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 36 = 80 net new aircraft (8.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 8.9 x 14.2 = 126 net new pilots per year.

Better case scenario:

Replace 700s; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 36 = 116 net new aircraft (12.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 12.9 x 14.2 = 183 net new pilots per year.

Best (but highly unlikely) scenario:

Keep all planes; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 = 152 net new aircraft (16.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 16.9 x 14.2 = 240 net new pilots per year.

Summary: Over the next 9 years, the narrow body fleet will grow by between 22 and 152 net new aircraft resulting in a net new hiring of 312 to 2,158 pilots, not accounting for pilot retirements.

Now for the heavies. I'll keep this one simple since we don't have any publicly available delivery dates yet.

Worst case scenario:

7 new Dreamliners; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 net new aircraft. 7 x 29.9 = 209 net new pilots over the next 9 years.

Best case scenario:

7 new Dreamliners; all options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 + 4 = 11 net new aircraft. 11 x 29.9 = 329 net new pilots over the next 9 years.

Retirements:

401 total retirements over the next 9 years.

Grand summary for the next 9 years:

Worst case scenario: 29 net new tails; 922 total new hires (312 NB, 209 WB, 401 retirements). (102 pilots per year; 8.5 per month)

Best case scenario: 163 net new tails; 2,888 total new hires (2,158 NB, 329 WB, 401 retirements). (321 pilots per year; 27 per month)

The real number will be somewhere in between. PS, obviously this doesn't include attrition.

Solid analysis, nice job.

Just curious where the 401 total retirements/9 years figure comes from? I don't have exact data, and that sounds plausible, but I'm wondering if it's slightly on the low side. If this is just a matter of having access to the list and everyone's age, I think you could also factor in the amount that don't work until 65, and I'd suggest this could be as high as 25%, so another 100 pilots.

I have to hand it to the C suite. Lots of work has been happening behind the scenes, culminating in some great news the past few weeks. Barring any black swan events, I'd expect an IPO is not far off now.