Thanks! Yes, 401 comes from the “years to retirement” column for each pilot on the PSL. You’re quite right that not every pilot will fly until 65. I did mention one of my assumptions at the very end, namely that my calculus excludes attrition. Could you add another 100 to this list? Maybe. I’d wager it’s a little less than that, but it would be an uneducated guess.Gear Jerker wrote: ↑Sat Sep 13, 2025 2:52 pmSolid analysis, nice job.-TSRA wrote: ↑Wed Sep 03, 2025 1:08 pm Lets find the answer with mathematics.
The pilots per plane ratio at WJ right now are:
2,134 pilots/150 planes = 14.2 pilots per 737
209 pilots/7 planes = 29.9 pilots per 787
First, I'll focus on the narrobody side.
WJ currently operates 94NGs (36 -700s; 58 -800s) and 56 MAXs. (150 total narrow bodies)
The current order book (past, plus today's announcement) is for a total of 116 MAXs and 36 options (a split between -8s and -10s, but that's irrelevant since it won't affect pilot ratios much). Given all this, here is a scenario based approach to growth and pilot hiring:
Worst-case scenario:
Replace every NG; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 94 = 22 net new aircraft (2.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 2.4 x 14.2 = 34 net new pilots per year.
Mid-case scenario 1:
Replace every NG; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 94 = 58 net new aircraft (6.4 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 6.4 x 14.2 = 91 net new pilots per year.
Mid-case scenario 2:
Replace 700s only; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 116 - 36 = 80 net new aircraft (8.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 8.9 x 14.2 = 126 net new pilots per year.
Better case scenario:
Replace 700s; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 - 36 = 116 net new aircraft (12.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 12.9 x 14.2 = 183 net new pilots per year.
Best (but highly unlikely) scenario:
Keep all planes; exercise all options: Fleet growth = 116 + 36 = 152 net new aircraft (16.9 net new planes per year over the next 9 years). 16.9 x 14.2 = 240 net new pilots per year.
Summary: Over the next 9 years, the narrow body fleet will grow by between 22 and 152 net new aircraft resulting in a net new hiring of 312 to 2,158 pilots, not accounting for pilot retirements.
Now for the heavies. I'll keep this one simple since we don't have any publicly available delivery dates yet.
Worst case scenario:
7 new Dreamliners; no options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 net new aircraft. 7 x 29.9 = 209 net new pilots over the next 9 years.
Best case scenario:
7 new Dreamliners; all options exercised: Fleet growth = 7 + 4 = 11 net new aircraft. 11 x 29.9 = 329 net new pilots over the next 9 years.
Retirements:
401 total retirements over the next 9 years.
Grand summary for the next 9 years:
Worst case scenario: 29 net new tails; 922 total new hires (312 NB, 209 WB, 401 retirements). (102 pilots per year; 8.5 per month)
Best case scenario: 163 net new tails; 2,888 total new hires (2,158 NB, 329 WB, 401 retirements). (321 pilots per year; 27 per month)
The real number will be somewhere in between. PS, obviously this doesn't include attrition.
Just curious where the 401 total retirements/9 years figure comes from? I don't have exact data, and that sounds plausible, but I'm wondering if it's slightly on the low side. If this is just a matter of having access to the list and everyone's age, I think you could also factor in the amount that don't work until 65, and I'd suggest this could be as high as 25%, so another 100 pilots.
I have to hand it to the C suite. Lots of work has been happening behind the scenes, culminating in some great news the past few weeks. Barring any black swan events, I'd expect an IPO is not far off now.
As for C suite, I very much agree. A few quarters ago during an analyst call, somebody asked Scott Kirby (United CEO) if he genuinely intends on taking every one of the 150 787s they just ordered. His reply went something like “absolutely, every last one.” He then went on to describe a large order book as a competitive advantage. In this context, AvH has spearheaded a strong campaign (one I haven’t seen another WJ CEO pursue) to lobby the government into removing barriers from the sector. If he is successful and sometime over the next few years these barriers are reduced, the airline best positioned to benefit will be the one with the largest order book. If that fails, they still have the hedge I wrote about.
WJ has often been criticized for being too cautious. But, this order has almost no downside risk, but has significant upside potential. 4D chess from YYC.
