Pilot Hiring 2025

[altiplano]

Air Canada Upgrade Forecast (Seniority 5800)
Assuming ~400 seniority moves per year

100-150 retirements
Seniority #5800/5800

28 airbus 220
15 321xlr (30 delivery’s/half will be replacements)
5 737 (lynx fins could be swapped out for new 737s)
14 787-10

• Capt 220 (YYZ): ~2.62 years
• FO 777 (YYZ): ~2.66 years
• FO 787 (YVR): ~2.81 years
• FO 787 (YYZ): ~3.00 years
• FO 787 (YUL): ~3.21 years
• FO 777 (YUL): ~3.59 years
• Capt 737 (YYZ): ~3.65 years
• Capt 319 (YYZ): ~3.92 years
• Capt 220 (YUL): ~4.12 years
• Capt 737 (YUL): ~4.06 years
• Capt 320 (YYZ): ~4.30 years
• FO 777 (YVR): ~4.57 years
• Capt 220 (YVR): ~4.84 years
• Capt 320 (YUL): ~4.76 years
• Capt 320 (YVR): ~5.25 years
• Capt 737 (YVR): ~5.74 years
• Capt 330 (YUL): ~9.11 years
• Capt 330 (YYZ): ~10.14 years
• Capt 787 (YUL): ~10.78 years
• Capt 787 (YYZ): ~10.92 years
• Capt 787 (YVR): ~11.37 years
• Capt 777 (YUL): ~11.07 years
• Capt 777 (YYZ): ~11.64 years
• Capt 777 (YVR): ~12.45 years

Does this seem accurate? Fabricated by ChatGPT.

You're a ways off.

Let's start with 400 seniority moves per year. There's a few years we will see around 150, but mostly you would expect about 100 retirements/year. How do you call that 400?

You also aren't factoring that we haven't had much of a bid since CA1 a year ago. It's just been little bullshit reductions or shuffles. When a big bid does go with actual vacancies in groups you will see a backlog of people that have been waiting to move take those WB FO seats and NB CA seats.

Maybe year 5/6 for 320/737 is close for some guys hired 2 years ago. But for someone hired today? Seniority number 6000? I don't think so. Same with 777/787 FO, that's going to truck up closer to 10 years eventually.

And there is no way that 787/777 CA seats go to guys with 11 years. More like double it.

You should use the calculator on the union website. It tells you what you can hold and when based on known fleet plan, expected crewing in each base, and expected retirements. It's not perfect but I think it is probably better than Chat GPT.

Post what you get here on it. I bet it's over 25 years for S/N 5800 to hold 777 CA.

[BTD]

Air Canada Upgrade Forecast (Seniority 5800)
Assuming ~400 seniority moves per year

100-150 retirements
Seniority #5800/5800

28 airbus 220
15 321xlr (30 delivery’s/half will be replacements)
5 737 (lynx fins could be swapped out for new 737s)
14 787-10

• Capt 220 (YYZ): ~2.62 years
• FO 777 (YYZ): ~2.66 years
• FO 787 (YVR): ~2.81 years
• FO 787 (YYZ): ~3.00 years
• FO 787 (YUL): ~3.21 years
• FO 777 (YUL): ~3.59 years
• Capt 737 (YYZ): ~3.65 years
• Capt 319 (YYZ): ~3.92 years
• Capt 220 (YUL): ~4.12 years
• Capt 737 (YUL): ~4.06 years
• Capt 320 (YYZ): ~4.30 years
• FO 777 (YVR): ~4.57 years
• Capt 220 (YVR): ~4.84 years
• Capt 320 (YUL): ~4.76 years
• Capt 320 (YVR): ~5.25 years
• Capt 737 (YVR): ~5.74 years
• Capt 330 (YUL): ~9.11 years
• Capt 330 (YYZ): ~10.14 years
• Capt 787 (YUL): ~10.78 years
• Capt 787 (YYZ): ~10.92 years
• Capt 787 (YVR): ~11.37 years
• Capt 777 (YUL): ~11.07 years
• Capt 777 (YYZ): ~11.64 years
• Capt 777 (YVR): ~12.45 years

Does this seem accurate? Fabricated by ChatGPT.

You're a ways off.

Let's start with 400 seniority moves per year. There's a few years we will see around 150, but mostly you would expect about 100 retirements/year. How do you call that 400?

You also aren't factoring that we haven't had much of a bid since CA1 a year ago. It's just been little bullshit reductions or shuffles. When a big bid does go with actual vacancies in groups you will see a backlog of people that have been waiting to move take those WB FO seats and NB CA seats.

Maybe year 5/6 for 320/737 is close for some guys hired 2 years ago. But for someone hired today? Seniority number 6000? I don't think so. Same with 777/787 FO, that's going to truck up closer to 10 years eventually.

And there is no way that 787/777 CA seats go to guys with 11 years. More like double it.

You should use the calculator on the union website. It tells you what you can hold and when based on known fleet plan, expected crewing in each base, and expected retirements. It's not perfect but I think it is probably better than Chat GPT.

Post what you get here on it. I bet it's over 25 years for S/N 5800 to hold 777 CA.

+1

[Canadianpilot2024]

I factored in 12 new hires for NB and 16 for WB

There also on average about 100-150 retirements happening per year now, but looking at the alpa pension calculator, there will be about 140 retirements per year on average for the next 20+ years.

Also didn’t account for new DBM credit or Vacation credit which will require additional pilots by 2027 to fufill contract obligations (cue the grievance bs… I know)

Also didn’t account for the 330/767 potentially being retired at some point.

Also looking at the pension calculator app on ALPA (thanks for the suggestion), roughly 10 years for 220 captain YVR, 12 years 737 captain, 28 years 787 captain yvr for a new hire (5800)

[30westpirate]

Also looking at the pension calculator app on ALPA (thanks for the suggestion), roughly 10 years for 220 captain YVR, 12 years 737 captain, 28 years 787 captain yvr for a new hire (5800)

This is more accurate, even then it’s a bit generous, it takes into account an average retirement age of 63. In reality most are going to 65, some with 40 years in.

[altiplano]

I factored in 12 new hires for NB and 16 for WB

There also on average about 100-150 retirements happening per year now, but looking at the alpa pension calculator, there will be about 140 retirements per year on average for the next 20+ years.

Also didn’t account for new DBM credit or Vacation credit which will require additional pilots by 2027 to fufill contract obligations (cue the grievance bs… I know)

Also didn’t account for the 330/767 potentially being retired at some point.

Also looking at the pension calculator app on ALPA (thanks for the suggestion), roughly 10 years for 220 captain YVR, 12 years 737 captain, 28 years 787 captain yvr for a new hire (5800)

Your "growth" crew are already here. Remember late deliveries. I think your 140/year average for 20 years is incorrect too.

I think what you see on the union projection is probably more realistic.

[flying4dollars]

I factored in 12 new hires for NB and 16 for WB

There also on average about 100-150 retirements happening per year now, but looking at the alpa pension calculator, there will be about 140 retirements per year on average for the next 20+ years.

Also didn’t account for new DBM credit or Vacation credit which will require additional pilots by 2027 to fufill contract obligations (cue the grievance bs… I know)

Also didn’t account for the 330/767 potentially being retired at some point.

Also looking at the pension calculator app on ALPA (thanks for the suggestion), roughly 10 years for 220 captain YVR, 12 years 737 captain, 28 years 787 captain yvr for a new hire (5800)

I'm a year 4 320YZ CA. It shows me 787CA YVR 20 years from now. So 28 years for a current hire is likely accurate though I don't know how to manipulate the calculator even with changing the user supplied info cuz it defaults my APOS to 320CA.

[Flyboy736]

Also looking at the pension calculator app on ALPA (thanks for the suggestion), roughly 10 years for 220 captain YVR, 12 years 737 captain, 28 years 787 captain yvr for a new hire (5800)

This is more accurate, even then it’s a bit generous, it takes into account an average retirement age of 63. In reality most are going to 65, some with 40 years in.

ACPA seniority calculator had a 65 retirement age so you could see the worst case scenario and be pleasantly surprised. Shame doesn't exist anymore

[AV80R]

I believe the average retirement age is going to significantly drop in the future. My sense is that the younger generation doesn't think it's a good idea to work to 65 like the previous ones wanted to. Work life balance is more important to them instead of only money. Especially when their salary largely goes to income taxes and gets eaten by inflation.

[cdnavater]

I believe the average retirement age is going to significantly drop in the future. My sense is that the younger generation doesn't think it's a good idea to work to 65 like the previous ones wanted to. Work life balance is more important to them instead of only money. Especially when their salary largely goes to income taxes and gets eaten by inflation.

Is there anything out there with age demographics at AC now, I’m curious to know what the ratio is of close to retirement and 20somethings.
The average age of retirement may drop but that may not happen for 30 years when the current younger generation gets closer to that age.
I’m betting there will be close to a decade of very few retirements, 20-30 annually before it starts to pick up again.

[Flyboy736]

I believe the average retirement age is going to significantly drop in the future. My sense is that the younger generation doesn't think it's a good idea to work to 65 like the previous ones wanted to. Work life balance is more important to them instead of only money. Especially when their salary largely goes to income taxes and gets eaten by inflation.

Is there anything out there with age demographics at AC now, I’m curious to know what the ratio is of close to retirement and 20somethings.
The average age of retirement may drop but that may not happen for 30 years when the current younger generation gets closer to that age.
I’m betting there will be close to a decade of very few retirements, 20-30 annually before it starts to pick up again.

Your bet is incorrect. 100 pilots a year are hitting 65 until 2028 when it goes to 150 pilots a year for a decade before going back down to 100 pilots a year. That's forced retirements, so a lot more than 20-30 annually

[rudder]

I believe the average retirement age is going to significantly drop in the future. My sense is that the younger generation doesn't think it's a good idea to work to 65 like the previous ones wanted to. Work life balance is more important to them instead of only money. Especially when their salary largely goes to income taxes and gets eaten by inflation.

Is there anything out there with age demographics at AC now, I’m curious to know what the ratio is of close to retirement and 20somethings.
The average age of retirement may drop but that may not happen for 30 years when the current younger generation gets closer to that age.
I’m betting there will be close to a decade of very few retirements, 20-30 annually before it starts to pick up again.

Your bet is incorrect. 100 pilots a year are hitting 65 until 2028 when it goes to 150 pilots a year for a decade before going back down to 100 pilots a year. That's forced retirements, so a lot more than 20-30 annually

That is actually still a very low retirement attrition rate. Averaged out to 125/yr that is just a 2% annual retirement rate. Extrapolated, that means moving up 2500 numbers in 20 years. From seniority 6000 to 3500. Even adding back in early-out and GDIIP, perhaps up to seniority number 3000.

[cdnavater]

I believe the average retirement age is going to significantly drop in the future. My sense is that the younger generation doesn't think it's a good idea to work to 65 like the previous ones wanted to. Work life balance is more important to them instead of only money. Especially when their salary largely goes to income taxes and gets eaten by inflation.

Is there anything out there with age demographics at AC now, I’m curious to know what the ratio is of close to retirement and 20somethings.
The average age of retirement may drop but that may not happen for 30 years when the current younger generation gets closer to that age.
I’m betting there will be close to a decade of very few retirements, 20-30 annually before it starts to pick up again.

Your bet is incorrect. 100 pilots a year are hitting 65 until 2028 when it goes to 150 pilots a year for a decade before going back down to 100 pilots a year. That's forced retirements, so a lot more than 20-30 annually

That’s good, because it could be worse than what rudder just posted which doesn’t sound good for new hires coming in, 20 years to get half wayish up the list is a long time. Some growth would help that situation however can’t bank on that.
Glad I’m wrong

[Flyboy736]

Is there anything out there with age demographics at AC now, I’m curious to know what the ratio is of close to retirement and 20somethings.
The average age of retirement may drop but that may not happen for 30 years when the current younger generation gets closer to that age.
I’m betting there will be close to a decade of very few retirements, 20-30 annually before it starts to pick up again.

Your bet is incorrect. 100 pilots a year are hitting 65 until 2028 when it goes to 150 pilots a year for a decade before going back down to 100 pilots a year. That's forced retirements, so a lot more than 20-30 annually

That’s good, because it could be worse than what rudder just posted which doesn’t sound good for new hires coming in, 20 years to get half wayish up the list is a long time. Some growth would help that situation however can’t bank on that.
Glad I’m wrong

Hate to break it to you, but at 5800 seniority level to get through 2900 pilots (halfway) with what I posted that's 24 years. It'll probably be a bit faster for a new hire as that projection was not calculating older people hired within the last 2/3 years but 20 years seems realistic to me

[DSHTRSH]

Some info that might provide some with a little insight;

I applied in early November, took 10 days from application submittal to interview schedule email.
Interviewed the beggining of December and was told that it will take roughly 12 weeks to hear back; sucessful or not.

I ehco the previous comments of roughly 290 pilots for 2026. Thats what they told me at the interview.

[Av8andsleep]

I factored in 12 new hires for NB and 16 for WB

There also on average about 100-150 retirements happening per year now, but looking at the alpa pension calculator, there will be about 140 retirements per year on average for the next 20+ years.

Also didn’t account for new DBM credit or Vacation credit which will require additional pilots by 2027 to fufill contract obligations (cue the grievance bs… I know)

Also didn’t account for the 330/767 potentially being retired at some point.

Also looking at the pension calculator app on ALPA (thanks for the suggestion), roughly 10 years for 220 captain YVR, 12 years 737 captain, 28 years 787 captain yvr for a new hire (5800)

I'm a year 4 320YZ CA. It shows me 787CA YVR 20 years from now. So 28 years for a current hire is likely accurate though I don't know how to manipulate the calculator even with changing the user supplied info cuz it defaults my APOS to 320CA.

Ok to sum this up for new hires who want to come in, getting hired now you’re looking at ~10-12 years to upgrade on a narrow and 20+ years for a WB upgrade. WB FO looking at 5+ years ? Plus/minus a couple years depending on retires and other factors? How are ground schools looking nowadays, is it all 220 for new hires or are the RP spots or 37 positions in the initials ?

[Flyboy736]

I factored in 12 new hires for NB and 16 for WB

There also on average about 100-150 retirements happening per year now, but looking at the alpa pension calculator, there will be about 140 retirements per year on average for the next 20+ years.

Also didn’t account for new DBM credit or Vacation credit which will require additional pilots by 2027 to fufill contract obligations (cue the grievance bs… I know)

Also didn’t account for the 330/767 potentially being retired at some point.

Also looking at the pension calculator app on ALPA (thanks for the suggestion), roughly 10 years for 220 captain YVR, 12 years 737 captain, 28 years 787 captain yvr for a new hire (5800)

I'm a year 4 320YZ CA. It shows me 787CA YVR 20 years from now. So 28 years for a current hire is likely accurate though I don't know how to manipulate the calculator even with changing the user supplied info cuz it defaults my APOS to 320CA.

Ok to sum this up for new hires who want to come in, getting hired now you’re looking at ~10-12 years to upgrade on a narrow and 20+ years for a WB upgrade. WB FO looking at 5+ years ? Plus/minus a couple years depending on retires and other factors? How are ground schools looking nowadays, is it all 220 for new hires or are the RP spots or 37 positions in the initials ?

Ground spots these days are not very useful for knowing the future, as by the time you get here it will probably change. But digressing, 737 has had a lot of hiring with the rouge transition, with some filler RP positions. Currently 220 is more internal transfers as YVR base continues to grow, however they are expecting a large amount of new fins in 2026 so I expect a large hiring run on that in the near future.