United 767 strikes tractor trailer and light pole landing in Newark

[pdw]

There is a flight radar track comparison of the three subsequent flights and this track boughs to the left quite a bit at that critical point. But that probably means the whole aircraft could be over 50-60ft left of extended centreline already, then add the left crab. The ADS-B out antennae is closer to the middle of the plane than the upfront left seat pilot (farthest left), the Pilot flying and eyeing for the lights.

See all the variables already that combine to stretch it up against the left limit? Wouldn’t have lost the lights for more than a few seconds though, just at this crucial point of 1/4 final where crab requirement (thru the shear) changes to the opposite/right side. Slower (cautious) response to abrupt change in crab-requirement to right would be what puts the left-crabbed cockpit way more left (but still only just enough) there just as the aircraft proceeds descending/transitioning through the shear.

[pdw]

Has anyone seen the cockpit displacement calculation yet for that left crab here? For that left crosswind til late approach? See that it takes it at least up to the 4 deg PAPI usability limit left of this centreline? 35 feet left looks like about 4.( PAPI is right side)

At the road, if a previous poster’s claim that it is 1600ft from tdz (and PAPI) is correct, 4 degrees offset from centreline measured from the tdz is 111ft laterally. There is no crab angle that a 200ft airplane could be at to exceed that 4 degrees offset limit as I understand.

Not sure which exact point from this centreline this unusual/restricted 4 degree angle gets measured. The “111” barely works for that idea even the fact it was already tracking somewhat left of extended rwy centreline; so in my estimation the breach of the 4deg line — if the ultimate forward nose-end additionally crabs far enough left as well in this shear bump — any PAPI blackout (3-5sec max) can only have occurred at about/around/after 1/4nm/6.5sec remaining before snapping the light pole.

So it does almost work here esp if the 4deg and centreline intersect nearer to the beginning of the runway. It must be something like that …. seeing that a 4 degree angle is very shallow coming across the middle all-the-way over from that right side. Once on airport property the PAPI has done its job (runway starts so close to the perimeter), and here there’s also reminder to be on centreline 2 miles back.

(the drawing works … double checked)

[pdw]

Surprised they didn't hit the concrete wall - must have come very close.

A simple go-around would have prevented this - it's not a difficult manoeuver to fly.

Hopefully we will see a report at some point.

Seeing it was actually the first approach there after the rwy change decision by ATC, and the next 3 planes (at least) didn’t even know it had an issue (ie what will be their story here) . Is there a certain point here where you can see it was right for them to opt to go around (for any reason) before the last 5-10 seconds here?

Annyway, I’m guessing, yes, (hoping) the prelim might have some interesting info here.

[SpyPilot]

I'm hoping that we don't see another post from pdw until the preliminary report is released.

[Canoehead]

https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/Pag ... FA194.aspx

[Eric Janson]

Direct link to the preliminary report:-

https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/Doc ... Report.pdf

Crew was inexperienced on Type (no breakdown of 757 vs 767 hours). Not sure if they should have been scheduled together.

757 and 767 are 2 different aircraft with a common cockpit.

Despite the low approach they still touched down past the 1000' markers.

The vertical profile shows the aircraft well below the '4 reds' PAPI profile - that's not a stable approach and that's a go-around in my book.

Sounds like the PNF was looking inside the whole time and had no idea what was going on outside.

Somehow they missed both the bread truck and the concrete wall.

[pdw]

Here the decay is underway in the blink of an eye, and as the FO states ‘ no chance to announce an go-around’. Pilot flying also states clearly ‘no shear forewarned’, yet two runway switches in a short time due to strong winds …

Note that prelim states “10 degrees” left of centreline .. yet “airnav newark” still shows us “PAPI unuseable 4deg left ..” ie not trustworthy 4deg left of the centreline (snapped light pole well left of centreline)