Post horribly inaccurate forecasts here

hazatude · Post by **hazatude** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:18 pm

Sis...quit being racist against Germans

lilfssister · Post by **lilfssister** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:20 pm

Uh...I am about 1/8 German...and that was Auto, not Otto

hazatude · Post by **hazatude** » Wed Aug 09, 2006 2:27 pm

Why all the hate? Feel the love. Embrace me...

master switch · Post by **master switch** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 8:54 am

hazatude wrote:Why all the hate? Feel the love. Embrace me...

i'll do more than embrace you if you give me an accurate weather forecast

hazatude · Post by **hazatude** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 10:30 am

I usally split the difference between environment Canda and the TAF...I'm correct more than 50% of the time.

FL410 · Post by **FL410** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 10:42 am

Doesn't Environment Canada actually put out the TAF as well though?

hazatude · Post by **hazatude** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 11:08 am

Environment Canada phone recording that all the radio stations use.

lilfssister · Post by **lilfssister** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 4:56 pm

Yes, Environment Canada issues the TAFs.

hazatude · Post by **hazatude** » Sat Aug 12, 2006 6:48 pm

lilfssister just nudges me awake and I know it's going to be a beautiful day.

lilfssister · Post by **lilfssister** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 4:22 am

hazatude wrote:lilfssister just nudges me awake and I know it's going to be a beautiful day.

Definitely, hands down, no doubt, the most inaccurate forecast to date!

master switch · Post by **master switch** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 8:11 am

METAR CABC 261500Z 26008KT 15SM BKN028 BKN240 15/10 A3004 RMK CU5CI0 CI TR SLP173=

TAF CABC 261139Z 261212 25005KT P6SM SKC FM1800Z 26008KT P6SM SCT060 BECMG 0306 18008KT RMK NXT FCST BY 18Z=

METAR CDEF 261500Z 26006KT 15SM BKN034 BKN040 15/07 A3001 RMK CU6SC2 SLP165=

TAF CDEF 261139Z 261224 29006KT P6SM FEW040 FM1500Z 25012KT P6SM SCT050 RMK NXT FCST BY 18Z=

master switch · Post by **master switch** » Fri Oct 06, 2006 10:25 am

METAR CYYY 061500Z 04011KT 30SM BKN036 12/08 A3051 RMK SC5 SLP332=

METAR CYYY 061600Z 03010KT 30SM SCT025 13/09 A3050 RMK SC4 SLP329=

METAR CYYY 061700Z 03011KT 30SM SCT027 13/08 A3050 RMK SC4 SLP329=

TAF CYYY 061239Z 061301 VRB03KT P6SM SKC
BECMG 1618 06010KT
BECMG 2301 VRB03KT
RMK NXT FCST BY 20Z=

why no amd after the 1500?

hydro · Post by **hydro** » Fri Oct 06, 2006 8:10 pm

master switch wrote:
why no amd after the 1500?

Environment Canada has a list of criteria for what should constitute an amendment. I don't know exactly whats on the list, I think less than 1500ft might be on it, or below 1000 ft for sure. Bkn above 3000, and sct at 2000 ft doesn't affect operations enough to warrant an amendment.

hydro

C-GPFG · Post by **C-GPFG** » Fri Oct 27, 2006 10:05 am

Not "horrible", but not what I wanted to see after driving into work...

METAR CYKZ 271700Z 12009KT 15SM SCT017 BKN061 OVC072 05/02 A2999 RMK SC3SC4AC1 SLP165=

TAF CYKZ 271139Z 271224 05005KT P6SM FEW030 BKN120
FM1800Z 09012KT P6SM OVC070
FM2300Z 09012KT 6SM -RA BR OVC020
RMK NXT FCST BY 18Z=

master switch · Post by **master switch** » Sat Nov 04, 2006 6:05 am

SPECI CYYY 041234Z 25003KT 12SM -SHSN OVC030 RMK SC8 PCPN VRY LGT=

TAF CYYY 041140Z 041224 26005KT P6SM BKN060
BECMG 1416 22008KT RMK NXT FCST BY 18Z=

couldnt thye see the snow that was less than an hour away coming and make the taf reflect that?

Icebound · Post by **Icebound** » Sat Nov 04, 2006 8:52 am

master switch wrote:SPECI CYYY 041234Z 25003KT 12SM -SHSN OVC030 RMK SC8 PCPN VRY LGT=

TAF CYYY 041140Z 041224 26005KT P6SM BKN060
BECMG 1416 22008KT RMK NXT FCST BY 18Z=

couldnt thye see the snow that was less than an hour away coming and make the taf reflect that?

I dont think you can characterize the situation as "snow coming".

Its a large area of SC with tops probably below 8000 in most cases, and overall, probably less than 5 percent of the area showing any precipitiation at all.

Overall, I'd say the TAF is pretty good.

...

master switch · Post by **master switch** » Sun Nov 19, 2006 7:23 pm

METAR CYYY 200200Z 34008KT 3SM -SN FEW012 BKN017 OVC022 M00/M03 A3007 RMK CF2SC5SC2 SLP191=

TAF CYYY 192339Z 200012 35015KT P6SM OVC020 TEMPO 0012 OVC025
BECMG 0204 34008KT RMK NXT FCST BY 06Z=

Icebound · Post by **Icebound** » Mon Nov 20, 2006 2:46 pm

master switch wrote:METAR CYYY 200200Z 34008KT 3SM -SN FEW012 BKN017 OVC022 M00/M03 A3007 RMK CF2SC5SC2 SLP191=

TAF CYYY 192339Z 200012 35015KT P6SM OVC020 TEMPO 0012 OVC025
BECMG 0204 34008KT RMK NXT FCST BY 06Z=

Is that supposed to be NOVEMBER, 2006???

Then it might possibly be a bogus METAR.... If you got that from NAVCAN's web site, I would tell them:

NOAA's sequence for that period has:

CYYY 200100Z 22002KT 30SM OVC020 03/00 A2982 RMK SC8 SLP099
CYYY 200200Z 31005KT 30SM OVC025 03/M00 A2981 RMK SC8 SLP098
CYYY 200300Z 31005KT 30SM OVC025 03/M00 A2980 RMK SC8 SLP092
CYYY 200347Z 30005KT 30SM -SHRA OVC025 RMK SC8
CYYY 200400Z 29006KT 30SM -SHRA OVC025 02/00 A2979 RMK SC8 SLP090

Nearby CYBC has

CYBC 200100Z AUTO 30004KT 9SM SCT031 OVC039 03/M00 A2981 RMK SLP097
CYBC 200200Z AUTO 34002KT 9SM OVC036 03/00 A2980 RMK SLP093
CYBC 200300Z AUTO 32003KT 9SM OVC032 03/M00 A2979 RMK SLP089
CYBC 200339Z AUTO 32005KT 9SM BKN021 OVC032 OVC053 03/M00 A2978

Note that the SLP is more in the area of 090 and QNH 2980 for both stations, more-or-less verifying each other.

Your METAR has a pressure almost 30 mb higher, most unlikely.

C-GPFG · Post by **C-GPFG** » Wed Nov 22, 2006 6:40 am

SPECI CYKZ 221308Z 00000KT 4SM BR SCT007 RMK SC2=
SPECI CYKZ 221321Z 00000KT 3SM BR BKN007 RMK SC6=
SPECI CYKZ 221329Z 00000KT 3SM BR SCT009 BKN230 RMK SC2CS1=

TAF AMD CYKZ 221320Z 221324 VRB03KT P6SM SKC TEMPO 1314 4SM BR BECMG 1618 06008KT
RMK NXT FCST BY 18Z=

Wondering why they put SKC when there were clouds around 700' 12 minutes before the new TAF.

bob sacamano · Post by **bob sacamano** » Wed Nov 22, 2006 7:02 am

METAR CYIV 221300Z 12002KT 15SM BKN100 BKN250 M04/M05 A2974 RMK
AC6CI0 SLP088=

TAF CYIV 221249Z 221301 06007KT P6SM SCT006 OVC090 TEMPO 1315 3SM
-FZRA BR BKN006 OVC090

C-GPFG · Post by **C-GPFG** » Wed Nov 22, 2006 4:50 pm

cpl_atc wrote:
C-GPFG wrote:SPECI CYKZ 221308Z 00000KT 4SM BR SCT007 RMK SC2=
SPECI CYKZ 221321Z 00000KT 3SM BR BKN007 RMK SC6=
SPECI CYKZ 221329Z 00000KT 3SM BR SCT009 BKN230 RMK SC2CS1=

TAF AMD CYKZ 221320Z 221324 VRB03KT P6SM SKC TEMPO 1314 4SM BR BECMG 1618 06008KT
RMK NXT FCST BY 18Z=

Wondering why they put SKC when there were clouds around 700' 12 minutes before the new TAF.
The TEMPO covers the clouds you describe, does it not?

It does not. There's nothing regarding clouds in the TEMPO.

Flying Nutcracker · Post by **Flying Nutcracker** » Tue Feb 13, 2007 11:58 pm

Let's see if anyone can find anything go bad with this forecast... It is from Feb 14 2007 0539Z

CYHZ 140539Z 140606 VRB03KT P6SM SCT240
BECMG 1113 08005KT
FM1500Z 12005KT P6SM SCT015 OVC100
TEMPO 1618 P6SM -SHSN BKN015
FM1800Z 12010KT P6SM BKN015 OVC070
TEMPO 1821 3SM -SN
FM2100Z 12017KT 3SM -SN OVC015
TEMPO 2123 1SM -SN VV010
PROB40 2223 1SM -PL
FM2300Z 11020KT 1/2SM SN BLSN VV004
TEMPO 2301 1SM -SN -PL OVC010
FM0100Z 11020KT 3/4SM -SN -PL BR OVC008
TEMPO 0305 1/2SM -RA FG OVC002
FM0500Z 12025G35KT 1/2SM -RA FG OVC002

C-GPFG · Post by **C-GPFG** » Sun Aug 09, 2009 8:30 am

last night.. CYYZ FM091500 22010KT P6SM BKN030 FM091700 24015G30KT P6SM BKN030 BKN130

SPECI CYYZ 091521Z CCA 34017KT 1SM +TSRA SCT010 OVC025CB 21/ RMK SF3CB5 PRESRR=

gustind · Post by **gustind** » Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:18 am

C-GPFG wrote:last night.. CYYZ FM091500 22010KT P6SM BKN030 FM091700 24015G30KT P6SM BKN030 BKN130

SPECI CYYZ 091521Z CCA 34017KT 1SM +TSRA SCT010 OVC025CB 21/ RMK SF3CB5 PRESRR=

They issued the Severe thunderstorm warning that afternoon didn't they?

C-GPFG · Post by **C-GPFG** » Sun Aug 09, 2009 9:32 am

The civil forecast did.

Post horribly inaccurate forecasts here

I trust the TAF

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