Global Pilot Shortange a Looming Crisis in Canada

This forum has been developed to discuss aviation related topics.

Moderators: sky's the limit, sepia, Sulako, lilfssister, North Shore, I WAS Birddog

goldeneagle
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1351
Joined: Mon Jan 02, 2006 3:28 pm

Post by goldeneagle »

whipline wrote: From what you just wrote are you trying to say that the pilot group will screw over the new hires to get better wages for the more senior pilots? If so thats your own pilots doing the screwing, not the company and certainly not the "kids."
Amazing how nobody seems to remember the 'Tier 1' and 'Tier 2' thing from a couple decades back. The senior pilots already hired on the 'Tier 1' pay scale, did indeed allow the airlines to institute a 'Tier 2' where all new hires were brought in at a lower scale, and kept on that lower scale, forever. Eventually all the Tier 1 guys retired out of the system, and everybody left in the 'senior' positions, are those that came in on the Tier 2 scale.

25 years ago, a senior heavy captain on the Tier 1 pay scale, made more dollars than the equivalent position pays today, and that captain was paid in 1982 dollars, each of which bought a heck of a lot more than a dollar buys today. Everybody on here want's to make a big deal about this, but, they do indeed miss the important points invovled, that captain 25 years ago had a LOT more responsibility than the equivalent captain today.

Some examples:-

The old guy used to take off from YVR headed to europe, in an airplane that was already fuel critical at takeoff, required step climbs to even get the range required, and did so navigating with an adf, a compass and a sextant. As often as not, they had little/no real weather reports from the enroute areas over the polar areas. Today, the airplanes have plenty of fuel capacity for the intended route, have precise wind reports from the route, and airplanes that can tell the crew a precise position to within a few feet at any point along the route.

The old guy would hand bomb a 707 down an ndb approach into iceland on the way, so the airplane could have a drink. This would often happen after the airplane had been hand bombed for a few hours at altitude, because the autopilot wasnt functional, or, wasn't holding it's altitude very well, not due to poor maintanence etc, but simply because the equipment was not actually up to the job, it was old vaccuum tube junk. Once that airplane started the descent out of the flight levels, it was committed, there wasn't enough gas to do another climb and continue. Today, that same trip is done in rvsm airspace much of the way, and the crew is not even permitted to hand bomb it across the pond, a very precise autopilot is a no-go mel item. Engines have become more fuel efficient, so, the concept of a committed approach due to fuel just doesn't exist anymore, technology improvements have allowed us to regulate those out of existence, and with that, went the mind boggling decisions made by the old senior captain to actually start the descent, knowing full well that no matter what they found at low altitude, the airplane was committed to a landing.

The job has changed over the years. Technology advances have, and continue to, marginalize the role of the pilot in transport aircraft operations. The pay scale reflects this. In the 70's and 80's, airlines paid up to get experience into the cockpit. Today, they pay up to get technology into the airframes. In that model, something has to give, and, the pay scale for the flight crews is what is giving. It's cheaper and safer to invest the money up front into technology in the cockpit, but, that leaves less in the kitty for putting wages in the cockpit.

Is this a bad thing, well, that depends entirely on your perspective. As a pilot, it sure looks bad, because there's limited potential for wage increases as aircraft develop. As a passenger, it's a huge improvement, just look at the accident statistics over the years. ILS replaced the NDB approach. Then TCAS started to replace the pilots eyeballs. First INS, and now GPS, have replaced the navigator. Computer components have replaced the second officer, computers do a much better job of managing functions that used to be the domain of the sideways seat. After you sweep aside a lot of the touchy feely crap, the hard bottom line is, technology makes the airplanes safer for the travelling public. The meat and potatoes of the zero/zero autoland lives in the avionics bay, not in the two front seats.

For those who really think pilot associations or unions are the answer, take a good long look at history. The navigator went the way of the do-do bird before associations and unions were the norm in the industry. The unions were willing to sacrifice the sideways seat to technology, to protect the pay scale of those in the front seats. The unions willingly bought into the 2 tier pay structure to protect the incomes of those already on tier 1.

The role of the pilot is being marginalized by technology, and will continue to go farther and farther in that direction. If you dont believe that, google a bit on UAV, and look just what applications are already running with no pilots on board at all. The union is a democratic thing, so, when a new tier comes into vote, the majority of members already in the top tier, will vote for the status quo on tier 1, at the expense of the folks at tier 2. We've seen this already in history. This is actually why they are called 'associations', and not really 'unions', because an association will sacrifice the new kids for the benefit of the old members, a union typically will not.

There is NO shortage of pilots out there, we all know this. There's still multiple applications on file, for every opening that comes up. What there is starting to be, is a shortage of folks that'll work cheap. This you can see in the job adds, but, every one of those adds is still finding a willing employee, just as soon as the wage gets up to a liveable wage. But it does the industry good to have headlines these days, shortage of qualified pilots, note the world 'qualified'.

The current generation of new birds coiming from the big manufacturers are being certified under the old set of rules, but, the industry is now prepping for the next major hurdle. While you dont see it yet in the 787, it's successor will indeed inherit all of the technology found in the UAV programs currently used to deliver weapons into hostile airspace. I expect the 797 cockpit will have only one seat, and, the second pilot will be on the other end of a data link, firmly parked in an office complex somewhere. That pilot can be the 'second' for a dozen or so flights at the same time, and the public WILL buy into it on the grounds this system will indeed prevent another 9/11.

When that day comes, and the first transport aircraft is certified for single crew ops, with data links to the ground for the 'second set of eyes', the pilots associations will indeed sacrifice the right seat, to protect the wages of the guys in the left seat. History shows us this, they have done it before, and will do it again. Part of that sacrifice is being realistic, they KNOW the job is being replaced by more efficient technology.

This industry is only two generations away from the old 'and then there were none...' swan song, and it's 2 generations of aircraft technology, not 2 generations of the folks driving it. Whatever numbers boeing and airbus choose to put on the generation that comes after what's currently nearing certification, one thing you can bet on, the cockpit will have 2 seats, but, certification will be done with one of them empty.
---------- ADS -----------
 
Hedley
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 10430
Joined: Thu May 27, 2004 6:40 am
Location: CYSH
Contact:

Post by Hedley »

a shortage of folks that'll work cheap
Bingo.

GE, are you sure you're a pilot? You're far too intelligent and insightful to be simply a unionized heavy equipment operator.
---------- ADS -----------
 
pitot
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 126
Joined: Mon Feb 23, 2004 8:59 pm

Post by pitot »

Trey,

Although some of what you said i do agree with, I definately have to disagree with you lumping people together who work the ramp and people who fly for free. Being you just got out of school you may not be aware but I know when i started flying, comming out of school and straight into a plane was virtually unheard of and that was only 10 years ago. 95% of the people had to start on the ramp and if you were very lucky you could get off in 3 mths. I only had to spend a year. I considered myself lucky. Now it's a slight bit different, but besides working for free its still gonna be tough for you to go straight to a cockpit from school. I learned alot during my time on the ramp. I don't look back at it as a negative thing at all. I hope by the time you get to a position of power you change your opinion on rampies, and i'll be curious to know what your first job is! :)


P
---------- ADS -----------
 
trey kule
Rank 11
Rank 11
Posts: 4766
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 7:09 pm

Post by trey kule »

Well pitot

I "just got out of school" nearly 40 years, and many thousands of flying hours ago. My 'first aviaition job' was in 1971

Having said that, I was maybe a little harsh on the pilot wannabees who work the ramp. Howver, let me say that I think that being a rampie is an important job , that if you are not going to misfuel, bend metal, or generally wreck things, is better done by people who are not pilots.
My biggest complaint is when you pull up and request fuel that when you go to sign the fuel ticket what you are given is a resume...I think the younger generation calls it 'networking'. Not sure how that works for someone you just met who, instead of doing their job, is being paid by their employer to find their next one. I am rambling here.

What is not understood by many of the young pilots who will prostitute themselves with ego centric rationalizations is that it is very hard for a good company which trains well, pays well, and treats their pilots well, to compete with some of these sleazo companies because their costs are so different. .And the pilots that work for them for virtually nothing are part of the problem.

As an aside, for the most part, companies that pay their pilots absolutely nothing tend not to be around for the long haul..Its very short term thinking as an untrained pilot who doesnt give a shit about the company can do a tremedous amount of damage to the aircraft on a daily basis.

and I will say it again..I cant do much about the sleazo operators, but I can about the sleazo pilots who will work for them...And I hope that some other operators will do the same...It will mean ultimately better pay and the ridding of the sleazos if pilots understoond that taking one of thses no pay jobs was a career staller.

Lastly, golden eagle...nice post
---------- ADS -----------
 
Accident speculation:
Those that post don’t know. Those that know don’t post
pitot
Rank 3
Rank 3
Posts: 126
Joined: Mon Feb 23, 2004 8:59 pm

Post by pitot »

Well, Trey upon rereading your post i had made a mistake on the whole fresh outta school thing. :oops: That being said I still thought you were a bit harsh on the rampies, as you said. That was it, That's all. Although I am glad to hear you are doing your part to weed out the guys who do work for the aforementioned slum companies and for that i say kudos to you! :lol: Now I sit back and hope I didn't miss read this post too!!

P
---------- ADS -----------
 
Captain_Canuck
Rank 4
Rank 4
Posts: 220
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 10:06 am
Location: At your mums house!

Post by Captain_Canuck »

GE, that was probably the most intelligent posting I have ever seen on here. When I posted that article, I was wondering what kind of response that was going to garner from the “old boys club” that resides on here. My thoughts were correct! Some how, Jazz got thrown in to the mix as usual for their decision to hire 250 hours pilots and mould them into what they want. I happens all over the world except Canada and the US because our civil and private aviation sectors are so developed. Personally, I don’t think there is anything wrong with taking a “competent” pilot at 250 hours and training them up to whatever standards to company dictates. I would imagine that these low time pilots are under such tough scrutiny from other pilots. Sim instructors and such that most of them will wash out from the pressure……or not. I hope they succeed. I wonder if some of the constant bitter comments from the usual band of suspects comes from a slight bit of jealousy. Jealousy because these guys at their low low time, are being offered something that you had to bust you asses for years to get or may have never got!!

Just a thought.

Again GE….awesome post!
---------- ADS -----------
 
Hedley
Top Poster
Top Poster
Posts: 10430
Joined: Thu May 27, 2004 6:40 am
Location: CYSH
Contact:

Post by Hedley »

I don’t think there is anything wrong with taking a “competent” pilot at 250 hours and training them up to whatever standards to company dictates
If you think this is ok, sure:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pinnacle_A ... estigation
http://www.ntsb.gov/events/2005/Pinnacl ... actual.pdf
---------- ADS -----------
 
Captain_Canuck
Rank 4
Rank 4
Posts: 220
Joined: Mon Feb 05, 2007 10:06 am
Location: At your mums house!

Post by Captain_Canuck »

Sad really that those guys had to go and hot dog around in an airplane!

But I dont see what that has to do with having 250 hours!

Pilots should be responsible and follow the company SOP's! This can happen to a 250 hours pilot just as easily as a 8000 hour pilot!
---------- ADS -----------
 
snoopy
Rank (9)
Rank (9)
Posts: 1118
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 6:19 pm
Location: The Dog House

Post by snoopy »

Golden Eagle,
GREAT post!!!

Interestingly, you said: "...What there is starting to be, is a shortage of folks that'll work cheap. This you can see in the job adds, but, every one of those adds is still finding a willing employee, just as soon as the wage gets up to a liveable wage..."

From here: http://www.avcanada.ca/forums2/viewtopic.php?t=37102

Job Description: Allison Air Service is currently seeking to hire a full-time pilot due to an upcoming fleet expansion. Initial flight duties will be as PIC on our 206 and 210 aircraft in addition to F/O duties on the Navajo Chieftain. Further advancement within the company fleet is based on the individual’s skill sets and attitude.

Salary: $ 2200/month to start, with raises based on additional qualifications

Case in point, and hardly a liveable wage. Whatever happened to seeking skilled employees and paying fair wages?
---------- ADS -----------
 
“Never interrupt someone doing something you said couldn’t be done.” Amelia Earhart
Kelowna Pilot
Rank 6
Rank 6
Posts: 481
Joined: Mon Jul 10, 2006 11:48 am

Post by Kelowna Pilot »

Salary: $ 2200/month to start, with raises based on additional qualifications

Case in point, and hardly a liveable wage. Whatever happened to seeking skilled employees and paying fair wages?

Aviation employers have grown very accustomed to the idea that pilots will work for wages and do things no one else would because they "love" their jobs.

It sets up a situation where pilots are ripe for exploitation because they're driven more by emotion and dreams than cold logic.

What we're seeing now is an industry upswing. I'll save the 'shortage' talk for the flying school sales managers. Enjoy it while it lasts and make the most of it. Sooner or later the pendulum will swing the other way.
---------- ADS -----------
 
User avatar
complexintentions
Rank 10
Rank 10
Posts: 2186
Joined: Thu Aug 19, 2004 3:49 pm
Location: of my pants is unknown.

Post by complexintentions »

Goldeneagle,

A well-written, thoughtful post that I enjoyed. But I would like to engage you on a couple of points that I respectfully don't quite agree on.

First of all, I very much enjoyed your ode to the steam-driver skipper. I am after all, the same curious mix of technical logician and diehard romantic that most pilots are: one shelf full of aeronautical manuals and reference books, one full of Ernest Gann and Saint Antoine d'Exupéry. Many times over my career I have felt I was born too late. But...I would disagree vehemently that the captain of old had a lot, or any, more responsibilty than a modern wide-body captain. Perhaps you are confusing workload with responsibility? 450 souls in the back, for 17 hours over all kinds of extreme territory - both environmentally and politically at times - is still a massive responsibility. The fact that the modern pilot has infinitely more tools at his/her disposal doesn't change that fact.

The very technology you seem to admire, has also led to challenges in modern aircraft that didn't even exist when Cappy 707 was driving on the gauges. His aircraft was more crude technologically - but it was also lighter, slower, flew lower, and had a shorter range. After performing his heroic feat of airmanship, he had not crossed half as many timezones, and was very likely on a layover the length of which has long since disappeared in this cost-conscious age - not the minimum allowed by ever-flexible "regulations". Would it surprise you to know that "mind-boggling" decisions like Commit to Destination are still made every day by large aircraft? If anything, fuel is planned tighter than it ever was in the seventies, again, due to rising costs.

I could go on, but really my point is its all about perspective...the challenges facing modern aviators vs. 30 years ago are as similar as a 707 is to a 777. As in...not at all.

It's more than a bit glib to state that the "meat and potatoes of a zero-zero autoland lives in the avionics bay". The aircraft handling part, perhaps. But if that autoland switches itself on - or off - when not commanded to by the meatsacks in the two front seats...we have a real problem. As I said, I understand your romantic admiration of the mentioned 707 pilot, but to somehow place him above the modern pilots still taking the responsibility for lives and hardware that far exceeds in both amount, and complexity, what old Cappy ever had to move...is just that, romanticism.

Technology. I don't think anyone has tried to use touchy feely crap to suggest it hasn't improved safety exponentially! But there is a logical disconnect in your opinion. You state that pilots wages have decreased due to higher investment in technology. I agree. By that logic, the pilot has become one of the cheaper parts of the operation. Why then, would airlines invest more heavily in automation, when it is the more expensive option?

The technology for unmanned flight has been around for a long time. Do they just keep a second body in the right seat because the accountants feel sorry for him? I think not. If your scenario of the FO working several flights at once was already practical and financially viable, it would be in place. Period. But given that there have been plenty of scenarios where both crewmembers actually on board an aircraft have been overwhelmed by workload and had accidents/incidents, how does removing one crewmember, assigning his workload remotely with telemetry (introducing another possibility for technical failure, in itself), and splitting it with several aircraft - enhance safety, with which you credit technology with? How does this elaborate system reduce cost, which is any airlines true goal? As you say, the hardware now costs far more than the pilots wage. No one is debating it's possible, but that isn't the same thing as practical, or financially viable.

I would love to see the hard proof that the "industry will indeed inherit all of the technology found in the UAV programs". We have a/c slated to start arriving in 2017 and as far as I know there will be two seats installed in the flight deck. No doubt there will continue to be all kinds of improvements in safety, situational awareness systems, human/machine interfaces and the like. But when the development of a new type takes billions, and new aircraft cost a quarter of a billion dollars a copy, the cost of installing an entire infrastructure to remote the work of one crewmember/flight, does not really make sense. And the reduction from three crewmembers to two, is not the same as reducing from two to one, from a mathematical redundancy point of view. I'm surprised you would raise it as a historical argument.

Lastly, I disagree that the public will buy into it on the grounds that it will indeed prevent another 9/11, because obviously it won't. UAV's would just change the terrorist attack vector to an earthbound pilot from trying to penetrate the cockpit door. Or try to disrupt the power supply(s) to the telemetry, hack the control system, etc etc...the only change really is to the elaborateness of the plot. I think people would balk at doubling their ticket prices so that now they can be hijacked by someone not even on their flight...the one where if the lone pilot goes into cardiac arrest, the same guy on the ground can land it for them. Technical possibilities often don't come to fruition simply because they fail to recognize human psychology.

At any rate it is interesting to debate, but I think the lack of energy resources - whether real or perceived, take your pick - will have far more immediate consequences than any new implementation of technology. Personally I would be quite happy to go to work a joystick in an office and sleep in my own bed every night, and then fly/travel on my own time in my personal P-51! But I respectfully disagree that we are as close to wide-spread pax UAV or single pilot transport ops, as you believe.
---------- ADS -----------
 
I’m still waiting for my white male privilege membership card. Must have gotten lost in the mail.
Post Reply

Return to “General Comments”