Kosovo Redux

[Phaedrus]

Ok, I missed out on the pulling of Ina’s Serbian propaganda posts, but since this issue has grown over the past 2 days, I thought a new thread might be in order.

There does seem to be a growing battle over whether or not Canada will recognize Kosovo, to the point that the Russians even ‘warned’ us not to take sides!?! In fact Putin yesterday said he may have to use military force in the region.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7258801.stm

For their part, the US said they are pulling all non-essential personnel out of Serbia. What looked like a clear-cut case of independence is now looking like it could turn into something else. What’s going on here?

[WJflyer]

The Russians are blustering. All talk, no action. I don't think the Russians are willing to start World War III over this, and we have seen this sort of talk before during the Cold War.


And they said the Cold War was over... well it ain't, it just froze for a decade.

[Wacko]

How many wars do you think the US can maintain at a time? They would have to pull guys out of Japan... and that's not gonna happen now The US is more concerned about the next president than what's going on in the world... and for some stupid reason if the US doesn't say anything.. everyone else seams to shut up too...


.... as for Russia... we're talking about the same president who ordered a sub to place a flag deep under water to claim norther Canada? By that logic I'm gonna shove my own personal flag up his @$$ and he'll be my b!tch.

I hope Kosovo gets independence...

[WJflyer]

How many wars do you think the US can maintain at a time? They would have to pull guys out of Japan... and that's not gonna happen now The US is more concerned about the next president than what's going on in the world... and for some stupid reason if the US doesn't say anything.. everyone else seams to shut up too...


.... as for Russia... we're talking about the same president who ordered a sub to place a flag deep under water to claim norther Canada? By that logic I'm gonna shove my own personal flag up his @$$ and he'll be my b!tch.

I hope Kosovo gets independence...

This will be in Europe's backyard, so if theoretically, if the Russians fly over to Serbia and roll into Kosovo, shooting against NATO troops, the Europeans have a fight on their turf, and it will be their responsibility to hold the tide against the Russians until the Americans can get fully mobilized. Despite the recent events in Afghanistan, where some of our NATO allies are less than willing to fight, this is something that will probably get the Europeans to shake off their boots and head to war.

[ScudRunner]

I think Europe and the EU have grown up enough to settle this on there own, It always confounded me that Canadians and Americans had to go into Europes back yard and clean up there sand box yet again. But I supose the fact that we didnt have any history in the region and could leave and where not neighbors after all was said and done, is part of the reason we are needed over there.

Solution recognize Serbia and Kosovo as territory's in the European Continent thus throwing the ball to the EU to sort out.

[Siddley Hawker]

Canada should be veeeerryyy careful about recognizing a unilateral declaration of independence by anyone. The PQ down here are grinning in anticipation of the percedent it will set if Canada recognizes a Kosovan UDI.

[Dust Devil]

Canada should be veeeerryyy careful about recognizing a unilateral declaration of independence by anyone. The PQ down here are grinning in anticipation of the percedent it will set if Canada recognizes a Kosovan UDI.

Completely different situations. The separation issue in Canada has more to do with cultural identity where as the Kosovo situation is about existence and genocide on both sides of the border. I would hope the PQ would be smart enough to recognize that. I also hope our government has the balls to tackle that issue. The Conservatives say they want to be heard on the international stage, Well now is the time to stand up and be counted.

[SQ]

How many wars do you think the US can maintain at a time? They would have to pull guys out of Japan... and that's not gonna happen now The US is more concerned about the next president than what's going on in the world... and for some stupid reason if the US doesn't say anything.. everyone else seams to shut up too...


.... as for Russia... we're talking about the same president who ordered a sub to place a flag deep under water to claim norther Canada? By that logic I'm gonna shove my own personal flag up his @$$ and he'll be my b!tch.

I hope Kosovo gets independence...

This will be in Europe's backyard, so if theoretically, if the Russians fly over to Serbia and roll into Kosovo, shooting against NATO troops, the Europeans have a fight on their turf, and it will be their responsibility to hold the tide against the Russians until the Americans can get fully mobilized. Despite the recent events in Afghanistan, where some of our NATO allies are less than willing to fight, this is something that will probably get the Europeans to shake off their boots and head to war.

Europeans are not cowards because they find other solutions than those red-neck americans who impose their strange conception of democracy to people who haven't asked anything to anybody. to not head to war systematicaly is proving your strenght. react like a bully is more or less a prove of brutality and limitations of your diplomatic means.
I hope europe will handle this as we can be sure a peacefull solution will be found.
but if you want to fight in afghanistan with your lil' friends outhere please go and don't come back, wich is not, let me recall you, a war but a mission of peacekipping.
can you make a difference between peacekeeping and war ?

[2R]

Last man standing rules should apply .
Close the borders and let the Serbs and Albanians fight it out .
Anyone who thinks that Nato or Russia should get involved should put on a pink tootoo and lead the charge cause they obviouslly have not thought it through.The world would be a safer place without the serbs or albanians .If we are to get involved in yet another balkans conflict it should be to get rid of both sides once and for all.

[Nark]

I hope europe will handle this as we can be sure a peacefull solution will be found.
but if you want to fight in afghanistan with your lil' friends outhere please go and don't come back, wich is not, let me recall you, a war but a mission of peacekipping.
can you make a difference between peacekeeping and war ?

You sure about that?

[Phaedrus]

Well, let me add a few more things into the mix then.

Serbia may have a good point about its traditional claims on Kosovo, yet any solution they spin that allows them to keep the territory will only last 5-10 yrs maximum. The reason is that Kosovo is over 90% Albanian (Muslim) and growing. The future belongs to those who show up for it, and people of Slavic ethnicity are being out-bred by their Turkish-Albanian-Muslim counterparts by a factor of something like 3 to 1. Whatever little chance the Serbs have of holding onto this land now is diminishing by the year. I believe that this model is also in place in the majority of European countries, as well as most of the breakaway Russian republics (some of which have yet to break away). So how Europe and Russia deal with this issue bears watching very closely. Yugoslavia has a habit of focusing the issues of the world, then igniting them.

Also, in the last 72 hours, Turkey has sent troops into (Kurdish) Northern Iraq. Reports vary as to the extent and numbers of troops involved (between 1000 and 10,000 troops), but there has already been significant fighting and with no clear objective seems likely to end in weeks or months rather than days.

This is how World Wars start. Not with one incident, but with many things happening in seemingly separate areas, but happening too quickly to react properly or prevent in time. Given the number of other hotspots that could combust on short notice to create the perfect storm, the question is: what would it take?

[mellow_pilot]

What's the polarizing issue here? I don't see how this can go global...

Russia's gettin ballsy, but to spark a full-on big one?

[Nark]

Didn't a small regional war spread awful fast in 1914?

Same area no?

[mellow_pilot]

well, yeah. But what does anyone have to gain there now?

[Phaedrus]

It's not that anyone has anything in particular 'to gain' in Yugoslavia. Neither will an issue like Kosovo, by itself, go global. It's that when the pace of events becomes faster than our collective ability to control them, we have reached a state of chaos.

And in a potentially unrelated vain, why are the Japanese building advanced naval 'cruisers' anyways?

[Nightshiftzombie]

Last year I listened to a CBC radio program on the aftermath of the Balkan Wars. Had a few interviews with "Average Joe" Serbians. Without fail all the Serbs interviewed, blamed foreign meddling for ripping apart Serbia, and viewed it as a betrayal that NATO went to war in support of "Muslim Terrorists." A lot of the talk reminded me of Germany in the 30's. I just hope Serbia can let Kosavo go and move on. It never works out well when nations carry around old grudges.

[ottawa,kan]

Would it be totally impolite to ask why you don't just let the PQ go??? If our eastern elitists wanted to go it alone I'd be all for it.

[2R]

Read the Treaty of Paris 1783 .the articles are as clear as the signatures on it .
Not as much fun as the Alaska treaties of 1845 .But after you have read them you may have a gentler view of the "futile "efforts of some seperatists .France sold them off for other interests .
The Alaske treaties are very interesting as the countries involved could make a case to revisit those deals
The Russians have hinted at that prospect during the Artic discussions.After Bushes many failures and defeats the last super power may not be able to negoitiate from a position of strength.

[F,D and H]

well, yeah. But what does anyone have to gain there now?

In odd '14 the only thing that Russia had to gain was to save face and show that it was a "great world power" by not allowing the Austrians to basically wipe out the Serbs. The Germans again to remain a "great world power" didn't want their buddies the Austrians getting wiped out by the Ruskies. Of course because the French wanted to keep the Rusks as their buddys had to join the party to show that they were a "great world power" The Brits were actually going to take the German's side until they saw how comparable their navy was becoming to theirs and they couldn't have that now. A "great world power" has the biggest navy not the second biggest!
PILLOW FIGHT!!!!!!!!!

Oh well if there is a war it will probably only last a couple of weeks anyways....X-mass the latest..

[Phaedrus]

Stinson wrote:

Would it be totally impolite to ask why you don't just let the PQ go???

Well for one thing, Quebec is somewhat between central Canada and the maritimes, so it would be pretty awkward. Secondly, we already had a vote 10 years ago, and it turns out that more than half of the people there want to stay. With immigration being greater than the birth rate (which is negative in Quebec) that situation is never going to reach a majority.

F, D and H wrote:

Oh well if there is a war it will probably only last a couple of weeks anyways

A war between a middle power (European or Russian) and Serbia/Kosovo would only last a few weeks. A war between middle powers would be another thing entirely. Those types of things always drag people in...there's too much at stake.
I don't think this situation would be allowed to escalate to that point. But if there were a few more things going on in the world geopolitical scene at the same time...

[mellow_pilot]

How can a birth rate be negative? People are being un-born?

[Phaedrus]

A negative birthrate is one that is less than 2.1
It means that your population is having fewer babies than the current generation, and will begin to decrease (when old age takes effect). 2.1 is the replacement birthrate or requirment for neutral growth. Anything over 2.1 and you have positive growth.

In Canada today, the birthrate is 1.5, well below replacement levels. We only grow because of immigration. The US only just meets the 2.1 threshold. Every European country and Russia has a negative birthrate. That's why it doesn't really matter what the Serbs want to do in Kosovo, they'll never win. The future belongs to those who show up for it. That would be the Muslims...

[ottawa,kan]

I thought 2.3 was more the stable rate...due to infant and teen mortality, some choosing not to have kids, some being gay, some being infertile, woman waiting until their mid thirties to have kids, etc. The US rate is only slightly positive due to the huge influx of latinos in years past having more kids than the more established population does. And of course we have immigration too. Lucky us, the latinos are almost all catholic.

[mellow_pilot]

So that's a positive birthrate which results in a negative growth rate...

[F,D and H]

F, D and H wrote:

Oh well if there is a war it will probably only last a couple of weeks anyways

A war between a middle power (European or Russian) and Serbia/Kosovo would only last a few weeks. A war between middle powers would be another thing entirely. Those types of things always drag people in...there's too much at stake.
I don't think this situation would be allowed to escalate to that point. But if there were a few more things going on in the world geopolitical scene at the same time...

Dude that was sarcasm (it's what people said about WWI)