Is it a good time to move to Jazz?

[Buzz Lightyear]

Hello all,

Lately, everybody is talking about the recession to come, based on fuel prices that seem out of control and the US economy that is weaker everyday and should soon hit us too. Some say it's just gonna be a slowdown in growth, others are more pessimistic and already talk about major layoffs at AC and Jazz.

I doubt anyone can really predict what is really going to happen but I was wondering if moving to Jazz now was a reasonable move or if it's just going ahead of troubles? My friends at Jazz tell me aircraft will keep flying and new contracts (charter in the Carribean) will help Jazz go through turbulence but if I were a brand new FO I would probably look at the months to come with less confidence knowing I would be among the first ones to be thanked.

I'm seeking your views on the matter, especially those of you already at Jazz. How do you feel things will evolve within the next year or two?

Fly safe

Buzz

[piggy]

Hello all,

Lately, everybody is talking about the recession to come, based on fuel prices that seem out of control and the US economy that is weaker everyday and should soon hit us too. Some say it's just gonna be a slowdown in growth, others are more pessimistic and already talk about major layoffs at AC and Jazz.

I doubt anyone can really predict what is really going to happen but I was wondering if moving to Jazz now was a reasonable move or if it's just going ahead of troubles? My friends at Jazz tell me aircraft will keep flying and new contracts (charter in the Carribean) will help Jazz go through turbulence but if I were a brand new FO I would probably look at the months to come with less confidence knowing I would be among the first ones to be thanked.

I'm seeking your views on the matter, especially those of you already at Jazz. How do you feel things will evolve within the next year or two?

Fly safe

Buzz

Thats a very tough situation. I just watched an interview with airline analysts that said if oil goes to 140-150 a barrel the entire industry will be bankrupt with the notable exception of southwest and westjet.
The dash8 will never be a problem for jazz. It is the CRJ. It is older and not fuel efficient enough at todays fuel prices. One has to remember also that oil (and gold), has gone up from 50-60/barrel to 135/barrel in one year. Demand has not over doubled in the last year. its gone up on hedge fund managers, speculators, geopolitical issues and a weak us dollar. it should correct but lots of guys calling for 200 oil. i think if that happens we are all in trouble (not just pilots). demand for oil will slow, people react by driving less, the us is in recession, so this should temper oils price rise. but nobody knows???
I think to quit your current job in these times you have to be very cautious in your approach. This analysts i watched says there is between 400-600 too many a/c operating rgt now in the usa, and they will be parked if oil stays high. if that happens there will be a potential reduction in the us of 5000 pilots-mitigated perhaps by some retirements. so i believe tough times ahead. you have to make your own decision obviously, just make sure you have a fall back plan-can you return to your old job on lay off or leave of absence for example.
Canada 's economy is strong in the western provinces due to resources and weak in ontario and quebec. So "overall" this means canada is plugging away just fine. this will continue to be the case with ontario becoming even weaker. canada is One of the few countries (other than emerging economies) that are doing well due to the fact that we have what everyone wants. copper/gold/potash/oil, etc. They do say though that our greatest trading partner is in deep shit and that it will start to affect canada soon.
The problems with subprime and the housing crisis in the usa may just be the beginning of the storm, after the dust settles on that, the feds will start to look at inflation -a growing concern, in fact many are comparing inflation in china, india to the poor political decisions of the 1970s in n america resulting in stock crashes and rapid inflation rise.
i can speculate for ever on the possibilities going forward.
This means (according to more than one economist) that in the next few years int rates in n america could reach DOUBLE DIGITS due to inflation.
the fact is you cannot have raw commodities quadruble in value and now have major inflation in the long run.
when they raise rates housing and stocks will hurt. this in combo with a major correction in the emerging economies will cause oil to crash posssibly-having said that many believe we are in a commodities supercycle like the 70's and these high prices are here for the next 20 yrs.
it is always doom and gloom and then when its over , everyone forgets , the market forgets quickly. fear and greed drive everything.
fuel costs are eating airlines alive, its a difficult time and that includes discount carriers. They are more likely by far to survive-even grow. AC and jazz will not escape this. Jazz may just stay the same size. just be ready for a rollercoaster ride. if you can get back to your old job on layoff go to jazz. If you get on the crj and get some jet time, go to westjet, they will continue to hire during this(although it may slow a little) and will be the most stable job in canada (and n america)

just my guess..

good luck

[Buzz Lightyear]

Thanks for this analysis piggy. I believe it's a hard choice as you never really know how things will turn out...will Jazz be strong enough to face what's coming ahead without any layoffs like it happened in the past at Transat, AC and other major airlines?

Anyone else has an opinion on this?

[ourkid2000]

I'm an AME for Jazz and right now things look pretty good. We're flat out all the time and the company has resorted to outsourcing in order to keep up with the work. This, in turn, has forced the company to do some major hiring.

However, I've been screwed around with in this industry enough times to know that where there's smoke there's fire. With all the talk going around, it's really just a matter of time before we get hit. As everyone else seems to believe, once the busy summer season is over I expect to be out of a job. If not then, at least by next year.

[FL510JC]

Great analysis Piggy,

But then again no need for a crystal ball, or a super computer to know we are headed for troubled times.

Piggy is right Buzz L. If you have an option to keep your old employer in the cards do so. Then again it’s hard for them to great you with open arms if they themselves aren’t doing so well after you've left.

I think it’s a “you do or you don’t” situation. You take your chances get a new rating on your licences, get some experience with larger heavier aircraft and if things go sour here at home you can always find work in parts of the world where the economy is not as dependent on the USA. Many pilots have done this in the past to then return when things pick-up... or you stay where you are and wait.

I did have a chuckle or two reading how West Jet was the only company out there with a bright future and nothing to worry about because they are the most stable in North America... remember boys and girls this is aviation we are talking about here and there are no guaranties, none...Bigger and brighter have fallen in the past.

Granted WJ will probably not go under less a major blunder, but it’s not out of the question for them to stop growth and even down-size. (even Superman has his kryptonite)
One things for sure... No airline will see me invest in their stock in the near future, not even West Jet.

Again Piggy great analysis, it puts lots of the pieces together and should be in all the new hires and those to be as a must read. You did fail to mention the up-coming U.S election. It has major repercussions in the way the economy will react.

Cheers and remember “Hands up and chin down”

[termerair]

Great discussion guys and tough decision indeed for you Buzz!

For a guy with your experience, I would say you should give it a try unless there is a good chance you go captain on the Embraer you're flying now.

The problem with Jazz is that you never know what you will end up with until the day of your groundschool. It doesn't help at all to make a decision! If you get the Dash 8 in Toronto and get stuck there for years because of the recession then I would say you lost the game. If you are able to get the RJ in Montreal then you're laughing because you will have improved your current conditions...

Another option would be to apply to a Medevac company that gives you some good rotations. Something like a 2 or 3 weeks On/Off and then you commute from home. With your time you should be able to land a captain spot somewhere on the King Air. This way you would be building some Multi/Turbine PIC time and that can't really hurt! And don't forget the medevac companies will never go "tits up" just because the government pays for everything! Even though the fuel is at 1000$ a barrel people will still be sick and ill (especially with what they drink and eat...)!

If I were you I would still apply, go through the whole process and see what happens... You can still turn it down if you don't want to go for it! A better option could just pop up in the mean time! From what I have heard Jazz is a great company, at least worth to give it a try!

Cheers

Termerair

[flydream]

Hey buzz!
You know that i'm not qualified to answer your question,but I don't think anybody is as nobody knows what's gonna happen at Jazz and in Canada generally speaking.Sure we hear the recession is coming,but who knows,maybe Jazz will do just fine,maybe they will just stop hiring with no layoff,or maybe they will layoff a good percentage of their pilots.As you told me once,only you can make the decision.
I just wanted to react about the base.Of course if you really want the CRJ and you end up on the Dash,you're screwed.But for the base,I wouldn't be too worried about it.If you don't get what you want right away,you'll get it a couple of months after.
A guy from the last groundschool was among the last on the seniority list,he ended up on the CRJ in Calgary,and he wanted Toronto as he's from Ontario.The thing is there were lots of guys from Ontario and they all picked Toronto.But there's someone from the previous groundschool that wanted Calgary and got Toronto,so they will be able to switch,I think it will take around 4 months.Not bad.
I would tend to agree with Temerair,if you don't go captain soon in your company (or FO on a bigger plane) it would be logical to look somewhere else.But that's just me.I know how much you like your present base (and I really understand!),it's not that easy to find a better pilot job in the same city.If you ever decide to move (and not to Jazz),aim at medevac and corporate companies,sick people and rich businessmen will always travel.
Good luck!

[Dark Helmet]

Just ask yourself these questions:

1. How is your present company. Do you have good opportunities to move and get some good experience there? How is the sched. people, etc. During a downturn, are you Ok with staying there for a couple of years? (someone mentioned you fly an Emb, Is it an Emb Jet?)

2. What is your ultimate career goal? Can you get there from your present company?

3. At Jazz, would you have to move, commute, do they have a base on where you live?

It all depends on that. As far as layoffs, it is possilble, things are headind south here. However, there is still movement. WJ will continue to hire for next few years, as will CX, EK, etc.....Like everyone said, nobody knows for sure what may happen.

Hope that helps, Good luck.

[SQ]

niche market =
air inuit will never lay off
first air
KBAL will allways hire, they have some B200. not obliged to go the bush way
China
cathay hire S/o at 1000 hrs
Middle east hires F/o on jet with your experience and time
keewatin 2on/2off
Morning star
Georgian direct to AC

As long as Air Canada can pay Jazz, Jazz will be ok
the one to look at is AC
you'd better wait to have enough time to go WJ
Jazz really sucks, bad ops, bad ramp crew, good maintenance, bloody management, bad pay, good pilots, seems that everybody is working on killing this company from inside and AC with it.
not the same spirit as WJ at all...

[Buzz Lightyear]

Just ask yourself these questions:

1. How is your present company. Do you have good opportunities to move and get some good experience there? How is the sched. people, etc. During a downturn, are you Ok with staying there for a couple of years? (someone mentioned you fly an Emb, Is it an Emb Jet?)

2. What is your ultimate career goal? Can you get there from your present company?

3. At Jazz, would you have to move, commute, do they have a base on where you live?

Thank you all for your feedback!

I'm asking myself these very same questions.

1. My present company is great in many ways : I get the days off that I want, the people are great, I'm based in a great city and the sched is relatively ok. I may moreover have opportunities to move to a bigger aircraft (I'm not presently on a jet ), I just don't know when. And the cherry on the cake: it is, in my opinion, a safe company to be with in case of a downturn.

Reading this you may wonder why I even asked about Jazz? Well mainly because it's the talk of the moment among pilots and I wanted to have your opinions in case the opportunity arises (no they haven't called me yet).

I obviously have reasons (good or bad) for considering other companies but I won't get into details here.

I appreciate your views and I hope to make the right choice when/if the time comes.

Brace yourself for the bumpy ride ahead!

B.

[North Shore]

Well, now that we are a few days down the road, and considering AC's layoff announcement yesterday, I'd be giving a lot of thought to your current situation, and the prospect of giving it up to go BOTL at an airline. Ya, you'll get a seniority #, and work with a great group of people, yadda, yadda, but the pay blows initially, and how long will you continue to be employed there? Maybe take a leave from your current job, and go, but if I were in your shoes, I wouldn't leave your current gig for Jazz, going into a softening economy... Then there's the price of oil..if that keeps on going up, then even the 'safe' airlines like WJ and Cx etc will be reassessing their business plans..

[bandit1]

This topic is now irrelevant considering the fact that jazz stopped all hiring.

[Grease Nipple]

The problem with Jazz is you pay union dues for the privelage of making the lowest wages in the industry.

[johnkruk]

I had an interview for a position in London as an AME a month ago. They just called me and want to go forward with it. Very strange as they seem to be downsizing. Seems like a risky move for sure. Was wondering is the downsizing going to be more of an AirCanada thing or Jazz or both.

[ATG]

I thought jazz put on a hiring freeze June 17th?.. or does that not count towards previous interviewed positions?

London is also a "heavy" Base which i hear jazz is somewhat behind on with some of the a/c

yes? no?

Cheers!

[ourkid2000]

I heard a crazy rumor today about Jazz shutting down its heavy maintenance completely and contracting it all out. A vicious rumor I know, but still.

[KAG]

with the planned hiring of 120 new pilots at WJ in the first half of next year, I would say there will be a trickle down effect and Jazz will find themselves short FO's. In that case, would they have to recall all the guys that took LOA's first then hire?

[Jet Driver]

They could recall the guys on LOA's, but they aren't obligated to come back to work until the term expires on their LOA. Someone who took a 3 year leave and is making better money flying overseas will likely go the full term or not come back at all if they like the new job. If none of the guys on leaves are ready to come back early, then they will indeed start hiring again if there is a shortage.