This can't be good

KAG · Post by **KAG** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 12:57 pm

I'm sure you all have heard the market meltdown today, largest drops in history (2 in as many weeks) were back to below Sept 11th numbers. I'm thinking this isn't going to be good for our load factors as alot of people have lost alot of money in the past weeks.

Good luck all weathering this storm.

2R · Post by 2R » Mon Oct 06, 2008 1:07 pm

Any good seat sales yet ???

Adam Oke · Post by **Adam Oke** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 1:15 pm

Could be a good time to start investing ...

mcrit · Post by **mcrit** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 1:44 pm

I hear Mr Leblanc is starting another airline.......

Duncan Idaho · Post by **Duncan Idaho** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 1:52 pm

On the plus side, oil dropped to 88 bucks a barrel due to worries of decreased demand. So the airlines make up some money there.

alpha1 · Post by **alpha1** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:13 pm

this is so not good....

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monit ... _bank_runs

robbreid · Post by **robbreid** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 3:34 pm

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27045699/ Jim Cramer - worth a watch.

This can't be good; at least 7 percent of Canadian registered corporate jets are currently listed for sale, that doesn't include two that were just sold, and the Global Air Ambulance (5) Lear 35's with an uncertain future.

Personally, I haven't seen this much movement since the 1980-1982 recession. That was devastating to aviation, and things are looking far, far more bleak than they did back then.

Kelowna Pilot · Post by **Kelowna Pilot** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 4:27 pm

History 101: The bigger the boom cycle, the bigger the resulting bust cycle.

scopiton · Post by **scopiton** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 5:00 pm

niche market...
niche market...

FICU · Post by **FICU** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 5:45 pm

Kelowna Pilot wrote:History 101: The bigger the boom cycle, the bigger the resulting bust cycle.

... and every bust is followed by another boom.

... a bear market is followed by a bull market.

... time will tell.

Kelowna Pilot · Post by **Kelowna Pilot** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 7:56 pm

... and every bust is followed by another boom.

... a bear market is followed by a bull market.

... time will tell.

That's generally right... the question is how long till the next upturn? What does history say? Usually maybe 5 to 6 years in Canadian Aviation.

That last real downturn in Canada started after the Air Canada - Canadian merger, which I think was 1999. It got really bad after 9-11, and didn't really pickup again until 2005/2006.

This is important for people to know, especially the wannabes.

Your success or failure depends on a very large degree to timing.

You do not want to be a 200 hour new CPL with $50,000 in flight training debt in a downturn environment.

You want to time your training so you finish at the start of an upturn.

CAL · Post by **CAL** » Mon Oct 06, 2008 8:48 pm

everything is timing...oh and some luck...
hang on to your seat...I think this one is going to test us all.....

ninjacrumb · Post by **ninjacrumb** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 3:48 am

Hope everyone likes the idea of working till they're 80. I know all my investments have taken a 24% plunge, so long freedom 55.

I kid. Buy now! Freedom 40!

YWGVOR · Post by **YWGVOR** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 5:04 am

1.00 CAD = 0.908222 USD
Canada Dollars United States Dollars
1 CAD = 0.908222 USD 1 USD = 1.10105 CAD

Just keeps slowly sliding...

palebird · Post by **palebird** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 6:34 am

This will not be good and you can be sure that the aviation world will be turned upside down..Airlines run on cash and what is the world short of now??? cash...you see all those banks going under or retrenching and demanding much more secure lending terms...as soon as somebody needs financing or refinancing that is when the airlines will start to choke, the fuel cost is helping these days but that is not going to save these puppies, will be interesting to see what remains after the smoke clears.. Iceland is on the verge of national bankruptcy and I know it is not a big country but I spent time there last year and they were all so smug and content with their wealth, not no more...

Rubberbiscuit · Post by **Rubberbiscuit** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 7:06 am

On a sidenote they did interviewed an Icelandic banker or investor yesterday and he said: "it has been a great party, but after every great party comes a hangover.... and this is going to be a really bad hangover"

RB

Duncan Idaho · Post by **Duncan Idaho** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 2:07 pm

Markets beaten to hell and gone once again today, TSX and DOW both lost 500 points.

alctel · Post by **alctel** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 2:42 pm

Rubberbiscuit wrote:On a sidenote they did interviewed an Icelandic banker or investor yesterday and he said: "it has been a great party, but after every great party comes a hangover.... and this is going to be a really bad hangover"

RB

Iceland is totally totally screwed.

So be glad you don't live there!

oneill10999 · Post by **oneill10999** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 5:47 pm

Sooooo, should i be gong to FLight school in JAnuary 2009, with the intention of graduating in jan 2010.... So ill be fresh out of pilot school in a year and a half from now.... IS the market going to be startying to rebuild by then??
WHat do you guys think?
Ive been trying to become a pilot for along time now.... and its a realll long story... but im now 26 years old, and going that 50,000$ n debt and planning on beginning MFC in Jan 2009, and completing their program in 1 year....so in a year and a half from now, ll be a freshie with a 200 hour CPL.....

What do u guys think? Will the market begining to turn upward by then?.... Remember .... this has been my dream forever, jst like every other pilots....so im not just going to pilot school on a whim.... as im sure you already assumed...considering im 26 years old with a university degree.

CHeers

Any advice....? or thoughts.?.. and only serious stuff please... Please dont purposely tear my dream apart... Just give me some wisdom and lucid advice..

Thanks Guys

rampking · Post by **rampking** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 6:01 pm

Dude,

I think you just answered your own question....if it's your dream to fly....to hell with what these bunch of losers got to say. Go to flt. school bust your balls and get done as quick as you can and get working on getting that first job. You seem pretty passionate about it so you have whas required. If anyone tells you that it's gonna be easy they are lying. Every body I know has a shit story about gettin on. Myself included........my two cents for what it's worth.

King

Gear Up · Post by **Gear Up** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 8:43 pm

"Any good seat sales yet ??? "

Well, we're selling seats for JetsGo prices YYC-YVR and YEG-YVR. So, depends if you wanna go to YVR for a weekend of fun....er...well....rain!

GU

Kelowna Pilot · Post by **Kelowna Pilot** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 8:48 pm

Ive been trying to become a pilot for along time now.... and its a realll long story... but im now 26 years old, and going that 50,000$ n debt and planning on beginning MFC in Jan 2009, and completing their program in 1 year....so in a year and a half from now, ll be a freshie with a 200 hour CPL.....

What do u guys think? Will the market begining to turn upward by then?.... Remember .... this has been my dream forever, jst like every other pilots....so im not just going to pilot school on a whim.... as im sure you already assumed...considering im 26 years old with a university degree.

1. Your university degree counts for d*ck in this industry. Canadian aviation has blue-collar trades culture and mentality. Frankly you'd be more marketable if you had a practical trade a future employer could make use of, such a electricians ticket.

2. You finish during a downturn (and the downturn that is coming up is going to be a big one that'll probably last several years), and you, as a 200 hour pilot, are going to be in for the most brutal, most frustrating experience of your life. Unless you've got a family connection, you're going to be competing with A LOT of other guys out there for positions that don't exist. Do a search on this forum using the term 'Lurker'.

How are you going to service your $50,000 debt? Assuming you even get a job on the ramp or as an instructor, will you even make enough to pay your debt and eat?

This is not what you want to hear, probably. But before you go $50,000 in debt you should know what you're getting into, and take the risk based on a clear-headed analysis of the risk, rather than dreams and emotion.

It's too bad you couldn't have finished your training 2 years ago. If you had done that, then it would be a bit of a different story.

Gear Up · Post by **Gear Up** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 9:24 pm

O'Niel,

Fug this Kelowna Pilot dude. Go for your dream and never look back. As they say....no guts ....no glory. Life is too short not to take a chance in the hope that your dream will come true.

PS. Do yourself a favour and try to weed out the naysayers of this industry. Typically, the naysayers are the ones with shitty jobs only because thats all they deserve.

Go for it buddy !!! Live your dream !! I did and I was one of the lucky ones cuz it came true.

GU

Kelowna Pilot · Post by **Kelowna Pilot** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 9:58 pm

O'Niel,

Fug this Kelowna Pilot dude. Go for your dream and never look back. As they say....no guts ....no glory. Life is too short not to take a chance in the hope that your dream will come true.

PS. Do yourself a favour and try to weed out the naysayers of this industry. Typically, the naysayers are the ones with shitty jobs only because thats all they deserve.

Go for it buddy !!! Live your dream !! I did and I was one of the lucky ones cuz it came true.

GU

Yeah, and O'Niel should also be careful not to listen to people who are so young that they've never witnessed or lived through a significant downturn. Or people in the flight training industry who are out to "make the sale".

O'Neil's concern is that he's likely to finish his training in a downturn environment, and perhaps a severe one judging by the way things are looking. It's a very legitimate worry, and he's putting a lot of borrowed money on the line for this.

He needs to be very cautious and aware of the risks.

If I were O'Niel, I would delay flight training for 2 to 3 years and save as much money as possible so I could stay out of as much debt as possible, and hopefully be able to finish at the start of the next upturn.

That's not nay-saying, that's just cold advice. I've seen what downturns are like. You do not want to be a 200 hour pilot with a large debt in a downturn environment.

Duncan Idaho · Post by **Duncan Idaho** » Tue Oct 07, 2008 10:17 pm

OK, O'Neil. From the first words of your posts I was hoping Kelowna Pilot wouldn't pick up on it because every time he hits his avcanada bookmark he tells us all about our imminent doom. Whatever you are doing, whatever industry you are in, whatever the circumstances are, according to Kelowna Pilot we all are about to be phased into heaps of smoking dung.

Don't listen to him, if you asked him what's up 3 weeks ago he would tell you that due to current and rising oil prices we are all going to starve and die a short period of days thereafter. Now that oil has dropped from the $150's to the $80's, oil doesn't matter, it's the stock market. When the stock market recovers, it'll be nuclear proliferation, then it'll be a fresh water shortage, then it'll be asbestos, then it'll be the instability of our planet's core, and then it'll be oil again.

It's true, the stock market sucks. So if you wanna start working while the stock market sucks, it might take you as much as a year extra working the ramp. I think working the ramp is kind of fun, but don't take my advice. It may lead to your painful doom according to Kelowna Pilot.

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