Why is speculating about accidents bad?

[teacher]

Not being a crash investigator and not having to be unbiased why should I or any other pilot not speculate about an accident? I can tell you that the speculation around this accident has done more for tail plane stall and ice awareness than ANY FAA or TC bulletin. I for one have reviewed alot the data out there and realized how much I have forgotten and in the case of tail plane stalls how much I didn't know to begin with.

As long as the speculation is respectful I see no reason to "wait for the facts" or "keep my opinions to myself" as long as they are in good taste. Facts come out in pieces and the speculation than changes but that's all it is, speculation and unfounded theories. Nothing anyone in this forum or out in the world says will influence the investigation so why freak out. I'm sure even if it turns out that NOTHING that was hypothesized in this forum comes out to be a cause or otherwise a few lives will have been saved by the shear interest generated and theories making people like me say, "@#$! dude, I didn't know that!”

Fly safe, be kind and for God's sake, fly carefully and make it home safe.

[airbournesailor]

Couldn't agree more!

[Doc]

I'm with you 100%. I find it strange though, that we can have nine pages of speculation on an accident in KBUF, but we can't even mention a certain incident, a certain Dash 8 had in YYB?
Speculation is a good thing. It should be treated as a learning tool. It gets the mind to thinking...what if?

[Stinky]

I think the big difference was the speculation done with the KBUF accident was pretty informative and mature, the YYB incident was pretty much all about what a big f*&Kup the pilots were and somehow disolved into a Jazz bash.

[vortac]

I think it's because there is a minority of people who believe speculation is bad in helping us all to discuss a topic that brings awareness to us as pilots. These people happen to have a lot of power on Avcanada and have no problem torching a thread because it doesn't support their ideology.

And in the case of the Jazz threads, God forbid we suspect it may have been the pilots, which unfortunately will turn out to be the case here. Well have to wait for Jazz to finnish investigating themselves on this long after everyone has forgotten about it.

[slowstream]

There is nothing wrong with speculating, theorizing or asking questions, the problem as I see it (IMHO) namely with this site, is that all too often people engage before thinking, thinking that they the experience and knowledge which usually comes across as "matter of fact" and too righteous. Then things just like everything else tend to go downhill badly and the insults start, but that's just my observation and two cents, am I wrong?

I grew up with a few very wise expressions with I endorse and try to teach my children, that is, "we are given two ears and one mouth for a reason, so we can hear twice as much as we speak", the other is to "engage the brain before putting your mouth into drive!" I always found it a worthwhile sound and worthwhile practice.

[flyinthebug]

Teacher.. I think the key is a line you said..

quoteTeacher" As long as the speculation is respectful I see no reason to "wait for the facts" or "keep my opinions to myself" as long as they are in good taste". I couldnt agree more. I just posted an intresting ABC report in our 9 page discussion about Flt#3407 that shows some speculations orginally were incorrect. It became an intresting discussion that im sure we can all take something positive from. The speculation though and strong feelings, which turned out to be wrong now..I believe were premature ONLY because some people chose not to "wait and see" at least long enough to allow them to put out the fire! Thats where they lacked respect and the same people attacked the crew and suggested they were inexperienced.

Speculation (sometimes) and discussion is (always) a good thing.. as long as that elusive "level of respect" is maintained. After all, thats why we all come to this forum.. to discuss aviation matters.

Fly safe all. Cheers.

PS.. Who are these "high ranking" members that dont want discussions on our boards? Shouldnt they be the ones to leave if they don t like discussions on public forums?

[Highflyinpilot]

I beleive it's a good thing, if it is kept civil.

as said above, i've never researched tail plane stall as much until this came up on the kbuf thread.
I've actually learned stuff in that thread by people speculating and talking, NOTHING WRONG AT ALL WITH IT PEOPLE.

[ehbuddy]

Because many of the witnesses of the Q crash said they saw it in a vertical dive it made many of us guess because of the location (level flight and just outside of the marker, gear, flaps etc) that it was probably a tail stall. We are now seeing that this was not the case (altho ice probably was present on the tail).

But what that speculation did do was present a discussion on the dangers tail plane icing and the dramatic effect it can have. The NASA LEWIS video that I had mentioned and another forum member posted is an excellent example of this. Many forum members had never seen this video before and if it helps a crew down the road its worthwhile.

[Four1oh]

Maybe when it comes to the 'next time' we'll start a separate thread to speculate? That's been done before, and I think that works well, so that way the people who want no part in the speculation(learning) can post their sorrows and condolences in their own thread.

[Cat Driver]

and I think that works well, so that way the people who want no part in the speculation(learning) can post their sorrows and condolences in their own thread.

We should have another thread for the Jazz incidents so the rest of us can not speculate.

[Skyhunter]

Playing devils advocate for a minute.....

Speculation is bad because....

Maybe by speculation we come to a possible conclusion that is wrong. We change the way we do things based on inaccurate information. That change causes us to react inappropriately to a set of circumstances we encounter which in turn causes a new accident.

Ok... back to just me.

Speculation is not bad... but it can be bad if acted on inappropriately. But something to consider for sure before just saying it is ok to speculate. Take everything with a grain of salt, and think before you speak.

[FamilyGuy]

Skyhunter the difference between the general public or media speculating and pilots speculating is that pilots here should have a clue.

Pilots here should be able to take even the tiniest morsol of info and apply it logicaly to what they do. If they can't, well I just can't agree that pilots are that stupid.

The general public and media should not speculate or hypothesis at all on the cause of an accident - they don't have the basic understanding.

Pilots however, SHOULD be thinking about what happened. I'd go so far as to say if a pilot isn't thinking about what might have happened he's a damn fool. As Doc has pointed out, what exactly are pilots supposed to do in the year(s) waiting for the official report???? Hope for the best until the ever benevolent TSB tells us what to do?

[seniorpumpkin]

I for one have learned a ton by reading other people's speculations. You do have to take things with a grain of salt, I certainly don't treat speculations as the "word of god", but there is a lot of valuable information that some people here have to share.
I agree that even if the information is raw, and there are no for sure bits of evidence, speculation is still a great exercise for the brain. It gets me thinking and motivated to learn more about how to do my job in a safer way.

[square]

Is it not obvious? The dash could've gone down because the tail fell off or something completely beyond the pilots' control. We don't know. We have no way of knowing. We've seen a picture of twisted metal, that's about it. And it's awfully disrespectful to the memory of the crew for a bunch of SPPs and newspapers to be going around saying 'oh well, they screwed this and that up and I wouldn't have done it because I know better.' Which is what the families will be reading if they google up what went wrong.

That's why it's bad. Now if an issue is raised that people have questions about, obviously you can discuss an issue, and it's great if people can learn something. But to be pinning accusations against the crew based on some disjointed line of logic you have connecting a weather report to a witness report is just really low class.

Oh, and to speak to the argument that we have some duty to learn all we can with this news, I'd like to ask if you've read and learned from the conclusions of the thousands of carefully constructed accident reports on file with the TSB and NTSB.

[seniorpumpkin]

I haven't been following the dash 8 thread, and I wasn't really referring to it.
You have a good point Square, families and loved ones don't need to hear speculations and opinions about plane crashes. It does bother me a lot to read the ridiculous reports in the news about plane crashes, and how wrong they can be.
This however is a pilot forum page. It is designed for pilots to talk amongst themselves. We are not reaching out to the families involved in plane crashes, we are not making our voices heard over the loudspeaker to just anyone who will listen. I really believe the intent of most of the speculation here is purely for discussion purposes. I also agree that we must endeavor to be respectful of crews involved, and use some sensitivity especially when the incident has such a tragic end.
You've got me on the TSB and NTSB reports, I haven't gone searching for any cold case files or anything, although it's a pretty good idea, and I do read every accident report I see. I consider that an important part of my job.

[xsbank]

I think its human nature to stare at a car crash and try and speculate as to what happened. For maybe a minute after, we modify our driving. 'Plane crashes, however, have our undivided attention because of what we do. We integrate 'the event' into our operations and 'the event' lasts a lot longer, maybe our lifetimes.

We will never know all the details but we know that some of our compatriots died in a way that I hope I (nor anyone on this site) will never duplicate - one way to avoid that is to discuss 'the event' here, just exactly as a normal flight department would do in a "safety meeting."

If somebody stepped in front of a bus, would it not be reasonable to say something rude about what a waste of a life that was, especially if you thought that it was an unutterably stupid thing to do? That is no different than trashing the pilots who f*rted about with that RJ recently, had a double flameout and crashed; the two dorks in the empty KingAir who smoked into a canyon, somewhere they were not supposed to be?

I think its more important to discuss 'the event,' even if we have no accurate info, because what we are doing is an "educated guess" at what happened. I think that being too PC about all this and worrying too much about the families is doing us and the victims a disservice.

Sorry.