Air France 447 Reported Missing

[mabcan]

A detailed meteorological analysis about this flight :

http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/

[Widow]

The jet took off from Rio de Janeiro's Galeao International Airport at 11:30 p.m. Sunday. Its last known contact occurred at 02:33 a.m. Monday, the Brazilian air force spokesman said. It was not clear what that final contact was.

It was expected to check in with air traffic controllers at 03:20 a.m. but did not do so. Brazilian authorities asked the air force to launch a search mission just over three hours later.

Would anyone have been monitoring the ACARS messages? Why would they have waited until 3 hrs after expected check in to launch a search?

This is a terrible tragedy. My deepest heartfelt sympathy to everyone affected.

[Topspin]

I'm not going to say anything about the source, no idea on Argentinian news, but figured I'd put it up:

http://momento24.com/en/2009/05/27/bomb ... ce-flight/

Bomb threat on Air France flight

Posted on 27 May 2009 at 16:27

The airport safety delayed an Air France flight this evening before departring for Paris immediately after the company received a bomb threat over the phone at the airport of Ezeiza.

The Federal Police, along the Firemen’s direction and the Airport’s Safety proceeded to inspect the plane, that arrived this morning from the French city and, after a brief stop, it was preparing to return.

The routine procedure lasted approximately one hour and a half and, as sources of the airport reported all the passengers are ok and they were not evacuated.

[carholme]

Re ACARS:

http://avherald.com/h?article=41a81ef1&opt=0

[Widow]

Thanks for the link carholme ... I didn't find an answer to my question, but did find this comment interesting:

We Should Know The Where Air France's Plane Is
By sy levine on Tuesday, Jun 2nd 2009 11:08Z

There is no technical reason why the digital flight recorder data isn't sent in real-time to the ground. Then with-in a couple of seconds you have the planes position/location, its attitude, velocity, etc. safely stored on the ground and used for flight safety, aviation security and cost reduction. This data used in real-time could have also prevented 9/11. It has been intentionally withheld and the balck box's is stored on the operational plane for fear of litigation.

This is another example of horrific crashes that possibly could be prevented and flight recorder recovery actions that are both expensive and time consuming that don't prevent crashes. You can see my work on the BBC Channel 4 broadcast the "Black Box".

Sincerely,
Sy Levine

Think I'll look into that some more. Anyone have comments about this?

Back to my original question(s) -

Would anyone have been monitoring the ACARS messages? Why would they have waited until 3 hrs after expected check in to launch a search?

I did find a partial answer here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 01071.html

Kalispell, Mont.: How is the "automatic" electrical failure transmission generated? And who received it if there is no flight service stations monitoring that area where it was flying?

Doug Feaver: There are system monitors on such aircraft that report all kinds of things discretely to maintenance bases. As I understand it they are not monitored in real time; it was only after this flight's crew didn't call in at the right time that the airline began to search through the data stack.

I'm somewhat surprised that there wouldn't be some kind of auto-alert of critical failures through this system.

[YHZChick]

There is no technical reason why the digital flight recorder data isn't sent in real-time to the ground. Then with-in a couple of seconds you have the planes position/location, its attitude, velocity, etc. safely stored on the ground and used for flight safety, aviation security and cost reduction. This data used in real-time could have also prevented 9/11. It has been intentionally withheld and the balck box's is stored on the operational plane for fear of litigation.

This is another example of horrific crashes that possibly could be prevented and flight recorder recovery actions that are both expensive and time consuming that don't prevent crashes.

That's a pretty big assumption to make.
There is inherent risk in most things people do, whether it be crossing the street or flying. Risk can be minimized, but it will never be eliminated.
Death sucks and it's hard to accept, but I'm just not seeing how real-time data could have prevented 9/11, nor how the author can call this a horrific and preventable crash given no one even knows at this point what brought this bird down.

We already have a system in place to transmit position, velocity, attitude and other information.And critical information WAS transmitted to AF through ACARS.

New information provided by sources within Air France suggests, that the ACARS messages of system failures started to arrive at 02:10Z indicating, that the autopilot had disengaged and the fly by wire system had changed to alternate law. Between 02:11Z and 02:13Z a flurry of messages regarding ADIRU and ISIS faults arrived, at 02:13Z PRIM 1 and SEC 1 faults were indicated, at 02:14Z the last message received was an advisory regarding cabin vertical speed. That sequence of messages could not be independently verified.

ACARS is monitored in real time by the airlines. If an aircraft requires some type of maintenance upon landing, it allows the airline to have the people and parts in place and ready to go when the airline lands. Similarly, if medical personnel are required at the gate, this too owuld be transmitted through ACARS.

It would be wrong to assume that the information being reported by the media at this time represents the full amount of information which Air France has or had.

[Widow]

I don't disagree with you about the prevention aspect, but with respect to the search and recovery aspects, costs in both time and money could be greatly reduced if

a) critical failures transmitted an instant alert
b) we ALWAYS knew exact location

It was one thing when C-GAQW "disappeared" - this is something quite different, and yet the same. The families of the people on this flight are going through the same things we were - only on a much "grander" scale.

[tiggermoth]

This data used in real-time could have also prevented 9/11.

This is another example of horrific crashes that possibly could be prevented

Maybe I am missing something somewhere, but I don't see how having a real time link to the ground from the FDR would "prevent" the crash as whoever this was claims. Unless there is some way to takeover the controls from the terrorists and fly the plane via radio control, a real time downlink wouldn't have prevented s**t. Same with flying close to or through a storm system. Would the real time downlink of the aircraft status be able to put the plane back together by itself in flight, or prevent lightning from striking in the first place. NO!! These so called experts really have no idea what these boxes are for and how they work. All they do is record the data that the aircraft systems give them. They do NOT fly the plane.

The other thing that ticked me off in that article is how the author states that "recovery actions that are expesive and don't prevent crashes." Ummm, the information retrieved from FDR and CVR over the years has taught many things that have been used to improve safety. People need to learn the facts before they claim to be experts and write articles after a large catastrophe.

Rant over.

My thoughts and prayers for the families of the victims and I sincerely hope that they find the remainder of the wreckage and learn the real cause, for the sake of the families.

Tigger

[YHZChick]

I don't disagree with you about the prevention aspect, but with respect to the search and recovery aspects, costs in both time and money could be greatly reduced if

a) critical failures transmitted an instant alert
b) we ALWAYS knew exact location

It was one thing when C-GAQW "disappeared" - this is something quite different, and yet the same. The families of the people on this flight are going through the same things we were - only on a much "grander" scale.

Again, the critical failures DID transmit an instant alert.
Had there not been a catastrophic electrical system failure, we also would have known their exact position.

[MrWings]

They apparently spotted wreckage, in the middle of the ocean, about 24 hours after the aicraft was reported missing. That is a pretty good response time.

They had a pretty good idea of the time and position of when something went wrong.

[supertrooper]

Big assumption here but since story is the plane flew through a thunderstorm and could of lost electronics could the radio's have been knocked out resulting in the military responding with fighter aircraft? The area it was flying through was military controlled and I can see no response raising red flags and possible military action such as getting shot down? You would never hear about that though.

[tiggermoth]

My apologies, I forgot to add that I completely agree with the thought that a real time LOCATION dowlink. For example the Spidertracks or Latitude systems are excellent and cheap. These would really reduce the amount of search time. Its not that I disagree with the real time downlinks, they are a great tool, but to say they alone could have "prevented"
9/11 and this crash is just not right.

a) critical failures transmitted an instant alert

Well, the system on this Airbus did send out a bunch of critical alerts, but the trouble in a case like this is the total system failure, and possible breakup of the aircraft in flight. The alerts would only be sent until there was no more power to send them. I wonder how hard it would be to build a system for sending these alerts that is completely isolated from the aircraft power systems. That would help there for sure.

[Widow]

Again, the critical failures DID transmit an instant alert.
Had there not been a catastrophic electrical system failure, we also would have known their exact position.

Was there a person who would have been alerted to the critical failure transmissions though? I am stuck on this:

It was expected to check in with air traffic controllers at 03:20 a.m. but did not do so. Brazilian authorities asked the air force to launch a search mission just over three hours later.

Could that be right? If someone somewhere was alerted to the critical system failures between 02:10Z and 02:14Z and they didn't check in as expected at 02:20Z ... why was it another three hours before a search was launched? Or was one launched by some entitity prior to the Brazilian air force?

They apparently spotted wreckage, in the middle of the ocean, about 24 hours after the aicraft was reported missing. That is a pretty good response time.

It may seem good to you, but looking at it from the other side ... as someone who has experienced that wait ... it's kinda hard to understand why I can know where my telephone is but I don't know where an airplane is.

[YHZChick]

Again, the critical failures DID transmit an instant alert.
Had there not been a catastrophic electrical system failure, we also would have known their exact position.

Was there a person who would have been alerted to the critical failure transmissions though? I am stuck on this:

It was expected to check in with air traffic controllers at 03:20 a.m. but did not do so. Brazilian authorities asked the air force to launch a search mission just over three hours later.

Could that be right? If someone somewhere was alerted to the critical system failures between 02:10Z and 02:14Z and they didn't check in as expected at 02:20Z ... why was it another three hours before a search was launched? Or was one launched by some entitity prior to the Brazilian air force?

They apparently spotted wreckage, in the middle of the ocean, about 24 hours after the aicraft was reported missing. That is a pretty good response time.

It may seem good to you, but looking at it from the other side ... as someone who has experienced that wait ... it's kinda hard to understand why I can know where my telephone is but I don't know where an airplane is.

Just because they lost contact and communication does not neccessarily mean that the aircraft has crashed. There are still mechanical controls that allow the the pilots to control rudder and elevator trim until (hopefully) power can be restored. Certainly, there were some very serious problems occuring as evident by the ACARS transmissions, however unlike say, Swiss Air, there was no voice communication that would without a doubt indicate the aircraft had crashed.

If your phone was in the Atlantic ocean, I doubt you'd have much luck finding it.
Air France has done a BANG UP job in handelling this in regards to the families. They had a crisis centre established at CDG well before media reports of the lost aircraft, and also made every effort to contact families in advance.

Would you rather be told your family member had perished before that was known for fact?

[MrWings]

With all due respect, this is not a rescue mission.

And if it was, for that position in the world, it is still a good response time.

In the end, it all comes down to $ and personal liberties. Do we all need to be wearing real-time transmitting GPS's so that our family and friends can know our whereabouts 24-7? Not for me.

Someone like Steve Fossett could have afforded a system like that. Apparently not for him either

I appreciate the families' need for certainty and closure. But when you hear an aircraft has disappeared in the middle of the ocean @ 35,000 ft. after reporting electrical failures, you hope for the best but expect the worst.

[Widow]

Just because they lost contact and communication does not neccessarily mean that the aircraft has crashed.

It may not mean it has crashed, but it does mean it is "missing" and may be in trouble!

... there was no voice communication that would without a doubt indicate the aircraft had crashed.

Lack of mayday or panpan or other voice communication, again, does not mean that there is no emergency - after all, the a/c is missing! Radio failures or lack of time are obvious explanations.

Would you rather be told your family member had perished before that was known for fact?

I'm not sure of your point in asking this question. When an airplane with your loved one on board is missing, you will not believe they have perished until it is proven. But missing is pretty f*ing scarey, and not knowing is just as bad as knowing. I do speak from experience. And something else I can tell you, some people will not believe until they have a body. One thing is for sure, I would have liked to know the a/c was missing as soon as it was known to be missing, and not three hours later, or seven hours later just as it appears on the evening news. I would have liked to know that search efforts had begun immediately, just in case ....

[YHZChick]

From reading another (and significantly more active) forum, it is my understanding that radio voice communication can be quite difficult in this area of the world.

When things go sideway on the flightdeck, communicating takes a backseat to getting a situation under control.

You don't send out SAR just because an aircraft "may be in trouble", and just because there is no communication from an aircraft doesn't mean it's missing. You are using what we know NOW to fill in the blanks on what may or may not have been known at 2:30Z.



The facts will come out in due course. You are jumping to conclusions and second guessing without having adequate information.

It may not, given your experience, be what you want to hear, but there are reasons why Air France, the Brazilian SAR, French SAR, etc acted the way they have (which again, will become more apparent as more facts are known). I didn't want to hear the cancer in a loved one was inoperable, and it may not have made sense to me ("why can't you just cut him open and take it out? They do that with tumors all the time"), but it didn't change the fact it was, and me being a layman when it comes to surgery, it was best to leave those decisions to the professionals.

Patience please, and a little respect for the professionalism of the various agencies involved.

[Widow]

When you combine the ACARS critical alerts with lack of call-in, inability to contact and known weather, the aircraft was known to be missing. Missing does mean

1. not in its proper or usual place and unable to be found
2. not able to be traced and not known to be dead

If the ACARS alerts were not known until hours after the failure to call-in, then I can understand a delay in calling SAR – that is why I asked if an actual person would have been aware of the critical alerts.

I am not jumping to conclusions, second-guessing or comparing a missing aircraft to inoperable cancer. I have asked questions and made comments, based on my personal experience.

[Doc]

I figure three things could result in the instant demise of an airliner.

1. A bomb
2. Military action.
3. Flight into a very large cell.

Number 3, gets my vote.

[matrix]

If the ACARS alerts were not known until hours after the failure to call-in, then I can understand a delay in calling SAR – that is why I asked if an actual person would have been aware of the critical alerts.

I've heard that it's not unusual for flights in this part of the Atlantic to not be heard calling in at their reporting points in that area of the Atlantic. Apparently the comms are not that great out there.

Also, it's possible that no one was actually monitoring these ACARS messages since it's probably used more as a diagnostic tool for once the aircraft is on the ground.

I do find it kinda sad that in this day there are many parts of the world with no radar coverage (including right here in Canada). I'm not totally aware of all the technology involved in having a satellite based system, but I'm sure it is possible.

[Cat Driver]

I've heard that it's not unusual for flights in this part of the Atlantic to not be heard calling in at their reporting points in that area of the Atlantic. Apparently the comms are not that great out there.

The South Atlantic route where that A330 went down in very remote and does not have nearly the traffic the North Atlantic has.

Radio communications are generally via either relay through another aircraft on VHF if you can raise one or by HF.

HF and the ITCZ can be difficult due to atmospheric problems.

Having flown both the North Atlantic Route and the South Atlantic route I can say for sure the southern route is more remote, we never rely on VHF or HF as we carry two Satellite phones which have never let us down.

I am amazed they found it so fast considering where it went down...therefore their information was far more accurate than the public is being told.

This accident has enormous liability and technical issues and no one involved in this will be making any comments for a long time.

If they recover the so called black boxes they will have a far better chance of finding out exactly what went wrong.

For those who have never flown in the ITCZ the thunder storms can be awesome, I have seen them with tops above 70,000 feet.

[Widow]

A U.S. Navy report based on similar disasters, released under the Freedom of Information Act late last year, found it was possible to recover aircraft wreckage including the black boxes from depths of up to 6,000 metres

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/content/view/17640/

[Lost in Saigon]

I figure three things could result in the instant demise of an airliner.

1. A bomb
2. Military action.
3. Flight into a very large cell.

Number 3, gets my vote.

4. Crew incapacitation. Then flew straight into a very large cell on autopilot.
(maybe one in the bunk, two sleeping on the flightdeck)

Might explain the lack of communication with ATC, or other aircraft, and the inability to recover from flying into a very large cell.

Other aircraft in the area never heard AF447 request or advise of a deviation after their INTOL position report at 01:30z

[Cat Driver]

Falling asleep a few hours after take off knowing they are approaching an active ITCZ?

[atpl53]

My thoughts go out to friends and family of all involved, including those at Air France. I was in Dallas at CAE doing my recurrency when this news broke. I was humbled by the response of those at CAE. There were constant postings on the CCTV and the entire operation took on a very quiet mode of grief and respect. We are a small fraternity and once again our heart has been broken.