Too Late or Too Much for Too Little in Return? or Should I G

[sapper6fd]

Good Afternoon all!

So here’s the scoop. I’m a 28 year old guy who has background in Military Engineering (ex Canadian Army). I’m currently working as a consultant (not related to the Military or Aviation) earning just over $60,000 a year. I just received my Canadian Ultralight Pilot permit which is something I’ve wanted to do since I was still in diapers and am now thinking to taking the plunge into the worth of a Commercial license. Before I make such a large financial investment I want to get a few answers to my questions from you guys – Pilots. (I’d ask Flight Schools but I believe their answers are biased in order to entice me to give them my hard earned cash!!!).

Before I go into the questions, I want to say I am NOT in any way going into this for the money. I’m in it for the love of flying. I do however want to resume my current life style within 5 – 10 years of finishing off a CPL. I’m willing to make big sacrifices (like giving up my $60 + K a year job to make $21,000 a year to start in a new industry). My other half is
completely supportive, to the point where she has even suggested I pour all of my current earnings into getting my CPL, and we live off of her high school teacher’s wages (we currently own our own home and have no debt so this wouldn’t be so bad).

First off, am I too old to get into the industry and be able to make a decent living within 5 – 10 years of obtaining a CPL? Is it realistic to think I can earn a living of $60,000 per year within 5 – 10 years? Am I bound for an industry which is declining, unsustainable and facing a flood of skilled pilots competing for 10 – 20 jobs each year? As far as I’m concerned (and I’m sure many of you will agree), this is an essential service that will always have a need for pilots.

Secondly, is this a good time to get into the industry? The economy is going to rebound, and once again airlines are going to be recovering, expanding and becoming profitable. Before I drop $XX,XXX into a CPL, I want to know I can get a return on that investment and resume my current life style within time. I have my fall back, but at what cost?
Your input on this is greatly appreciated.

sapper6fd

[Tango01]

Keep you current job, buy a nice airplane and fly for fun, go on vacations, eat the $100 hamburgers, do it all with no pressure, no negativity from this industry, no shady operators or crappy bosses, no worrying how you gonna put food on the table, none of that.

You are still very young, go for it if you really wanna do it, but kiss your current lifestyle goodbye for years to come...Your call, everyone has a different opinion on this, keep an open mind, but most important, don't live with any regrets.

Good luck

[square]

Your plans sound about as prepared and realistic as I've ever heard. And 28 is definitely not too old, I know lots of folks starting their first jobs in their 30s and 40s and loving it.

And 60k, 5 years into your flying career is perfectly reasonable. That's not a very hard standard to break, but some people take lower paying jobs for better lifestyle (ie: certain cities/schedules/career instructors/etc).


About the comment to keep your job and fly for fun .. well, personally I don't think that'd be very fun. I like being a part of the aviation industry more than twiddling knobs in a 172 in cruise, it's a fun job with great people. If I didn't do it for a living I probably wouldn't fly at all.

Well actually I'd probably get a 185 on floats

[MichaelP]

My other half is completely supportive

You are a very very lucky guy, women like this are few and far between; you can tell her she has the admiration of perhaps many on this forum.
I have seen AIDS many times (Aviation Induced Divorce Syndrome), loyal partners are too rare these days.

28 is far from being too old and you might find that your maturity and background will go down well with ethical operators.
Operators who pay slave wages to young inexperienced pilots are not places you would want to work at in any case.

I have known many 'mature' pilots in their late 30's get into the industry and through effort, suffering, and luck have achieved their desire to become airline pilots.
Some of these chaps had high paying jobs and rubbed noses with rich people, but passion, if you catch it, is hard to ignore.

This industry is always in flux... I don't know if it's a good time to get into it but I do know that a lot of schools are in difficulty unless they have off shore clientele.
This means perhaps that there will be a shortage of CPLs from this period while many new CPLs will have already got 'proper' jobs (not aviation related) by the time they would be employable.
The passionate ones who hang on seem to make it in the end.

[fortis risk]

I love the industry and always have, there are its negatives to be sure but overall its dynamic and full of interesting people.

That being said, no this industry is not sustainable at its current level. Fuel scarcity and their side effects will continue to erode aviations fundamental strengths. There will be a significant shift in the size and scope of aviation over time that will see a diminishing of prospects. Its not that I think aviation will disappear, but it will be smaller and more specialized.

This isn't just my opinion, most economists will tell you the same thing. Sticking our heads in the sand won't change it.

[square]

I rather doubt fuel scarcity will be the end of us. Why not make an electric engine you can just juice up off a reactor or electrical plant of some kind? There's industrial shovelers with 3500 hp that are totally electric.

[fortis risk]

How much does an electric shoveler weigh? Or a reactor?

[fortis risk]

Square, just think right now how many airlines have trouble making money?

Now add oil scarcity to the mix. Just know that oil scarcity isn't that there will be no oil, but that with supply diminishing and demand increasing.....

[MichaelP]

Just know that oil scarcity isn't that there will be no oil, but that with supply diminishing and demand increasing.....

In 1976 I was told to fly the Condor at 2,200 RPM to save fuel... It didn't like it and neither did I. That was the fuel crisis of the seventies when it was running out!
Now you would not believe there ever was a fuel crisis with all the mothers driving their kiddywinks to school in the morning and blocking the roads with their big gas guzzling SUVs. You can't risk your precous children in small cars can you.
What ever became of school busses? Kids walking to school or even bicycling!
So is there really a fuel crisis?
Why are Chrysler marketing big Hemi powered cars if there is a fuel shortage?

No, we'll find a way of flying big airliner busses around the sky.
If oil was running out Boeing would not be gearing up to build anything powered by it.
Not to say that we should not be as economical as possible of course.

[square]

Well this threads getting derailed pretty quickly lol. sapper6fd, I say do it man.

How much does an electric shoveler weigh? Or a reactor?

OK, I didnt think I'd have to clarify this but, I wasn't suggesting we hook the electric shoveler up to the airplane to power the engines. Nor that you'd carry a reactor, though that's definitely not impossible. Just that we can get clean power off of reactors that could hook into the grid just like the coal-fired and hydro plants we use today. You could just plug in the airplane overnight and charge up the batteries.

I see it as a much more likely outcome that we'll figure something out, out of the many possibilities available to us, rather than just give up on air travel because it's a toughy.

[North Shore]

Why are Chrysler marketing big Hemi powered cars if there is a fuel shortage?

Umm, didn't Chrysler just get bailed out by the taxpayers and Fiat (a large manufacturer of small cars) because they were making products that no-one wanted to buy, and thus went bankrupt?

So is there really a fuel crisis?

Not quite yet (although you could argue that the $ 140/bbl last summer was the start of it..), but it's a-comin' - and well within the working lifespan of most on this board. Even allowing for the effects of the current recession, we are using roughly 1000 barrels of oil a second - it simply cannot go on forever, even though we would all wish it to do so..

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Eco ... 6Dj05.html

What will this all mean for aviation? I'd guess that specialty operations (some heli work, medevacs, fire suppression, corporate) are going to be safe, but the era of jetting off to maui for a two-weeker, or to Grand Prairie to visit grandma, is going to come to a grinding halt, or at least suffer a large cutback..

That being said, there is some encouraging work done on oil from algae - so perhaps not all is lost..also, a complete re-vamp of our transportation system could change things. By that, I mean that I've heard that aviation is responsible for something like 3% of global Co2 emissions, so I'd guess that it is thus about 3% of global fuel useage, the rest being used by cars, buses, trucks and the like. If we all decide that producing and transporting food and other consumer goods, and jet-set holidays are more important to us than driving in our individual cars to work everyday, then fuel useage should drop, price likewise, and the system should go on for a few more years yet..

Back to our original poster: follow your dreams, but be aware that the road will probably involve many twists and turns, and may even come to an end before you even get going...make sure that you have a solid plan 'B' in case things go sideways on you..

Good luck!

[Shiny Side Up]

OK, I didnt think I'd have to clarify this but, I wasn't suggesting we hook the electric shoveler up to the airplane to power the engines. Nor that you'd carry a reactor, though that's definitely not impossible. Just that we can get clean power off of reactors that could hook into the grid just like the coal-fired and hydro plants we use today. You could just plug in the airplane overnight and charge up the batteries.

As of yet, electric motor and battery technology simply isn't feasable for use in aircraft. What Fortis was getting at was, no you don't need the shovelor to power the aircraft, but you do need the electric motor that powers it. As of yet internal combustion powerplants deliver the best power to weight ratio of any source we have (with the exception of rockets - which of course have their own disadvantages disqualifying them from use). Chemical batteries by their nature also tend to use some of the heaviest materials available to store power.

In 1976 I was told to fly the Condor at 2,200 RPM to save fuel... It didn't like it and neither did I. That was the fuel crisis of the seventies when it was running out!

Out of curiosity, how much did the fuel cost back then? It probably still didn't cost as much during the "shortage" than it does now. The price of it will only continue to rise. The available naturally derived oil and gas on this planet (and I dare say this galaxy - as only planets with a long biohistory will have oil on them) is a finite amount. Eventually it will run out. In answer to your question why do they continue to make things that use it is simply because they still can, gambling (and reasonably so) on the supply will not run out during their lifetimes, knowing that as well the consumers and users of such products are also assuming so. rest assured though, the powers that be have a pretty good idea how much is left, all that really matters is forcasting the rate at which it will be consumed.

In my own estimation, our current best bet is looking at ways to reduce consumption and alternative sources of fuel, that is to say synthetic means of manufacturing it and processes like funding research of biodiesels, and making ethanol and methanol viable, but that's just my opinion.

Back on topic though, and maybe even to more doom and gloom, maybe not, all I can say is get into it because you enjoy doing it and need the lifestyle change that the work in aviation provides. It does sound like you still have the choice to be able to fly for fun though, and personally you should look at that as well and see if you can meet your expectations as a fun flyer too. It sounds like you have an expectation of being able to achieve a certain lifestyle with aviation that seems more based upon how much you will be expecting to be earning, in which case a career in aviation (or any career these days, but aviation less so) has no guarantees.

[square]

Good post

rest assured though, the powers that be have a pretty good idea how much is left, all that really matters is forcasting the rate at which it will be consumed.

The problem with this is that the powers that be are pretty myopic in their priorities. Quite naturally though. They're concerned for their jobs and many look only as far ahead as their support in the next election. Not too sure about Canada but I've heard in the states a congressman needs to raise $10k a week from the day he's elected just to pay for his campaign. He'll be concerned with what's going on in the papers, not the journals. So I wouldn't count on the powers that be to do anything at all about the problems of the next generation.

[MichaelP]

HOTOL would not use oil based fuels and would whizz you to Australia in a couple of hours

Perhaps we are too old to be around when some really super air/space planes finally come out powered by hydrogen and other highly inflammable but green fuels synthesized using electricity from nuclear power plants.

Perhaps huge carbon recovery plants will be built to change pollution back into petrol?

I think there will be pilots required for some time yet until Airbus and Boeing finally certify pilotless airliners controlled by operators on the ground as many military aircraft already are.
Fly by wire has been certified connecting the pilot through five computers that do the job better in 90% of the circumstances so why not pilotless altogether?

I sat on the Skytrain a while ago and there was a little boy looking out of the windows as we went over the Fraser river and it occured to me that there was no driver!
At the same age I remember leaning back as a great steam locomotive came tramping into the station. It was awesome seeing this monster machine with steam gushing out its sides coming past me.
Men and machines... driving steam locos, imagining flying Spitfires, the dreams of my youth...
Today it's an automated world we are creating, taking ourselves out of the equation.

Except for a lot of us on here, we still fly old aeroplanes that take personal skill and I hope, like those who still practice archery, that we will continue to be able to do what we do.

[square]

The military can fly all the UAV's they want, but I doubt many passengers will ever shell out money to be onboard an airplane with no cappy. Especially those that use Windows.

[Shiny Side Up]

The problem with this is that the powers that be are pretty myopic in their priorities. Quite naturally though. They're concerned for their jobs and many look only as far ahead as their support in the next election.

Not quite the "powers that be" that I was talking about, but yes they're part of the problem as well.

[square]

Ah, well if your powers that be are those among Big Oil, you're probably right that they'll plan to profit off an energy crisis. ExxonMobil's got the coin to put any elaborate scheme into place. But only after they've milked er for all she's worth.

[fortis risk]

Square, what I was referring to was the fact that your electric shovel is heavy, in fact weight is to its advantage. Whereas aircraft tend to do better with less weight. So suggesting the technology is transferable is a bit of a stretch.

There is a tendency among those who would deny the reality of peak oil to refer to the two oil crisis' in the 1970's as similar to what is happening now. It couldn't be further from the truth. The first "crisis" was as a result of the Yom Kippur war, a number of oil producing states in protest of the US backing of Israel reduced the flow of oil to the US, forcing up the price. The second "crisis" was after the Iranian Revolution the flow of oil was reduced and as a result world supply was diminished.

At that time there was far less demand and far more supply, all the elasticity in the market that existed then has disappeared.

The price of oil has been kept very low compared to other commodities when inflation is factored in. In addition the cost of oil has to be realized in terms other than just monetary. How many lives have been lost in wars over oil, and how much environmental degradation.

When we look at aviations future it would be prudent for us to look objectively at our resources and not simply state that technology will save us.

[MichaelP]

Economics often go against good sense...
In the case of oil, if we make efforts to use less then we will probably push the price of oil upwards in time.
Does it cost more to make a pint of gasoline than a pint of beer?
If it does then a gallon of gasoline would cost more than 8 pints of beer.
Save the planet, drink more beer and don't drive.

I always work towards using less fuel... I drove economical cars like my first one, a Viva HA with a 1057cc engine while my older brother had a Cutlass Supreme with a 442 Cubic inch V8.

Now we operate the most fuel efficient aeroplanes on this field

[mark_]

At 28, you're still a pup. In a couple blinks of an eye, you'll be like me...40 years old, making big money but full of regrets, and flying ultralights to get my fix.

Mark

[mbflyer]

At 28, you're still a pup. In a couple blinks of an eye, you'll be like me...40 years old, making big money but full of regrets, and flying ultralights to get my fix.

Mark

What he said.

If this is something you really want - then standard of living is totally irrelevant. The problem with making $60G/yr and going into this ( but it appears it isn`t a problem for you) is that you grow accustomed to a standard of living that would bedifficult to transition out of in order to fly.

You have a supportive wife, relatively no debt and the ability to do this. If it works out and you get a decent job flying - awesome. if it works out and you get a decent job flying and you make $60K/yr - even better.

[atpl53]

First off, am I too old to get into the industry and be able to make a decent living within 5 – 10 years of obtaining a CPL? Is it realistic to think I can earn a living of $60,000 per year within 5 – 10 years? Am I bound for an industry which is declining, unsustainable and facing a flood of skilled pilots competing for 10 – 20 jobs each year? As far as I’m concerned (and I’m sure many of you will agree), this is an essential service that will always have a need for pilots.

You are NEVER too old to get into aviation. Expectations will change based on age. Got my PPL at 40. Fly corporate jets today. I am one of those lucky ones who has a very supportive spouse.(she actual thinks I'm crazy...but that's another topic for a separate thread...) She also makes REAL money which allows me to work the low wages, long hours, downturns, live away from home...and all the other things which can be thrown at you from time to time.

My Granny always told me, "Do what you love and the money will follow". That can be true here as well. When people ask me about pursuing a career in aviation I always tell that a burning desire to fly is the most important criteria. After that, its easy.

Dan

P.S. I still hold a valid exit strategy!!!!

[square]

P.S. I still hold a valid exit strategy!!!!

Does it all hinge on never having signed a prenup? Wise man!

[sapper6fd]

Well thanks everyone for the advice. I've decided to go for it, and have checked out quite a few flight schools, narrowed it down to two. Does anyone think there is an advantage / disadvantage to learing on something other than a Cessna or a Piper? IE Diamond DA20's? Reason I ask is there is a rather descent flight school (where my old Ultralight instructor also teaches out of) that uses the modern DA20's and the cost is dual / solo time is the same as other schools using 172's.


Reagrds

sapper6fd

[AeroDiaz]

I say go for it. But first, get this on a legal document with your lawyer and a couple of witnesses. ; )

My other half is
completely supportive, to the point where she has even suggested I pour all of my current earnings into getting my CPL, and we live off of her high school teacher’s wages

Cheers and happy fying bro!