With fast growing economies in India and China a little quick mathematics might help us look into the future of the global oil economy and America's future.
Total global oil consumption per day: 85 -95 million barrels/day
U.S.A.
population: 293 million people
Oil consumption: 22 million barrels/day
China
population: 1.29 billion people
Oil consumption: 4.6 million barrels/day
( A per capita U.S. equivalent consumption: 97 million barrels/day)
India
population: 1.065 billion people
Oil consumption: 2.2 million barrels/day
( A per capita U.S. equivalent consumption: 77 million barrels/day)
Total "equivalent" consumption adjusted for current consumption: 169.9 million barrels/day
If China's and India's economies, in the future, will demand the equivalent per capita oil consumption as the U.S.A.'s, the total global demand will increase by 170 million barrels/day. That is twice the global amount currently produced today. At $50.00/barrel today it is not hard to tell what is going to happen in the future. And with United States carrying record trade deficits and China holding U.S.A.'s largest cash reserve (Who's your daddy!?), the prospects for the American economy, if nothing serious is done and quickly, looks dim. And with Russia now supplying China with weapons and the European Union lowering the arms embargo against China things could get very serious for Americas future. Of course Bush's Unilateral policies may just work. Thoughts?
Global Oil and Math
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shimmydampner
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desksgo
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I enjoy your thoughts, you seem to have a knack for this area. No doubt this is going to get far worse before it gets better. Have you accounted for the US's upcoming invasion of Iran though? Then its on to Korea perhaps?
What a mess. I'm doing my part by staying in my jammies and not going outside.
What a mess. I'm doing my part by staying in my jammies and not going outside.
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just another pilot
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)The Chinese don't need anybody to supply them with weapons. They export huge quantities of their own weapons production. Some are indigenous designs, some copies of Soviet systems, some slightly modified.
No, these systems can't compare one-on-one with the new generation of US and European equipment. Most of them are even marginally inferior in apparent performance to the last generation of Western weapon systems. That said, for the most part, these systems are simple, dependable, and effective. When you combine that with large numbers, it's a proven war-winning recipe. If you doubt that, take a look at the contrasting gun performance and armour level of German WWII tanks and Allied tanks - especially the T-34.
I don't disagree with you post, Dex. I just wanted to point out that Russian supply of weapons itsn't really a necessary element of the Chinese becoming a more dominant world power. If the Sino-Soviet split had not happened, and the Chinese indigenous arms industry had not developed, then I have no doubt that the Chinese would be dependent upon Russian arms sales - but since that split, the Chinese have become increasingly independent of any outside supplier for their military needs.
No, these systems can't compare one-on-one with the new generation of US and European equipment. Most of them are even marginally inferior in apparent performance to the last generation of Western weapon systems. That said, for the most part, these systems are simple, dependable, and effective. When you combine that with large numbers, it's a proven war-winning recipe. If you doubt that, take a look at the contrasting gun performance and armour level of German WWII tanks and Allied tanks - especially the T-34.
I don't disagree with you post, Dex. I just wanted to point out that Russian supply of weapons itsn't really a necessary element of the Chinese becoming a more dominant world power. If the Sino-Soviet split had not happened, and the Chinese indigenous arms industry had not developed, then I have no doubt that the Chinese would be dependent upon Russian arms sales - but since that split, the Chinese have become increasingly independent of any outside supplier for their military needs.
Please don't tell my mother that I work in the Oilpatch...she still thinks that I'm the piano player at a whorehouse.
What the future holds
There is an excellent book that was published this year titled Collapse by Jared Diamond. I would recommend it to every one interested in this type of topic. It is all about societal collapse and how societies chose to succeed or fail. He goes over classic examples such as easter island and the mayans and modern ones like rwanda, then draws on his findings to make a solid conclusion. He gets into chinas rising oil consumption, which if it continues at the same rate, will double the worlds oil consumption.
Definately an awesome read.
Cheers
Definately an awesome read.
Cheers
I saw the best minds of my generation destroyed by madness.
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just another pilot
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moms come forth and cut me off.Dex ------ I'm kinda interested where you got your figures? I have in front of me the 2004 OPEC Annual report for themselves and all other oil producing and consuming countries in the world and your figures differ. They state that China for example, produces 3.297 million barrels/day all by itself, with KNOWN and PROVEN reserves of 24,000 millions of barrels. World per capita oil consumption is listed as 4.47 barrels/day.
I might suggest that you do research into what the US has invested into the Chinese economy because it's "tenacles" are great. For example, ALL of the Big Three auto makers have plants and production facilities there and I think you'll find when you research that neither China nor Chinese business owns or controls GM, Chrysler or Ford.....and with the rising purchasing power in China, they are selling cars like hot-cakes. It's also rather odd that Chinese government officials and their military Generals just completed a tour of US training facilities with the proposed idea of training some of their pilots in the US and learning some of the new-age weapons technology. They completed the tour by ordering up billions of dollars worth of new Boeing a/c for their airline industry....and I believe the majority of Boeing is American owned and controlled. Since their #1 contract-supplier is the US military, I believe the US government would want to ensure that Boeing wasn't Chinese owned or controlled either.
Russia, Germany, England, France, Canada, the US and Korea have been supplying the world, including both Chinas, with weapons for decades, so what's new there? All Saddam's fighters were either Russian or French and all his French helicopter spare parts came from Marseilles, France and Ft. Erie, Ont at the Eurocopter plant. Maybe I'm misunderstanding something here because I don't see anything new in that department anyway. Canada, through their Commercial Business Company, makes $2.5B/year selling arms all over the world and they sell to China also.
I might suggest that you do research into what the US has invested into the Chinese economy because it's "tenacles" are great. For example, ALL of the Big Three auto makers have plants and production facilities there and I think you'll find when you research that neither China nor Chinese business owns or controls GM, Chrysler or Ford.....and with the rising purchasing power in China, they are selling cars like hot-cakes. It's also rather odd that Chinese government officials and their military Generals just completed a tour of US training facilities with the proposed idea of training some of their pilots in the US and learning some of the new-age weapons technology. They completed the tour by ordering up billions of dollars worth of new Boeing a/c for their airline industry....and I believe the majority of Boeing is American owned and controlled. Since their #1 contract-supplier is the US military, I believe the US government would want to ensure that Boeing wasn't Chinese owned or controlled either.
Russia, Germany, England, France, Canada, the US and Korea have been supplying the world, including both Chinas, with weapons for decades, so what's new there? All Saddam's fighters were either Russian or French and all his French helicopter spare parts came from Marseilles, France and Ft. Erie, Ont at the Eurocopter plant. Maybe I'm misunderstanding something here because I don't see anything new in that department anyway. Canada, through their Commercial Business Company, makes $2.5B/year selling arms all over the world and they sell to China also.
Hello Dex,
For more info on oil, go to the American Petroleum Institute web site API.
Second, no country will ever even come close to consuming what the USA is using, per capita.
Still world demand is on the rise and so is the price. No wonder that Diamond is selling and will sell a lot more of those cute little diesel twins. Schools cannot afford to operate without them...
Yes there are more oil reserves available, but they will be more expensive, because all the inexpensive oil is already being extracted.
As for arms sales no one need the mighty USA, and do not discount the performance of their aircraft or the quality of some country's pilots.
Also do not forget the old saying that the ultimate weapon of mass destruction is still the Kalashnikov. It has killed more people than anything else...
Cheers
For more info on oil, go to the American Petroleum Institute web site API.
Second, no country will ever even come close to consuming what the USA is using, per capita.
Still world demand is on the rise and so is the price. No wonder that Diamond is selling and will sell a lot more of those cute little diesel twins. Schools cannot afford to operate without them...
Yes there are more oil reserves available, but they will be more expensive, because all the inexpensive oil is already being extracted.
As for arms sales no one need the mighty USA, and do not discount the performance of their aircraft or the quality of some country's pilots.
Also do not forget the old saying that the ultimate weapon of mass destruction is still the Kalashnikov. It has killed more people than anything else...
Cheers
Success in life is when the cognac that you drink is older than the women you drink it with.
LH wrote:Dex ------ I'm kinda interested where you got your figures? I have in front of me the 2004 OPEC Annual report for themselves and all other oil producing and consuming countries in the world and your figures differ. They state that China for example, produces 3.297 million barrels/day all by itself, with KNOWN and PROVEN reserves of 24,000 millions of barrels. World per capita oil consumption is listed as 4.47 barrels/day.
I might suggest that you do research into what the US has invested into the Chinese economy because it's "tenacles" are great. For example, ALL of the Big Three auto makers have plants and production facilities there and I think you'll find when you research that neither China nor Chinese business owns or controls GM, Chrysler or Ford.....and with the rising purchasing power in China, they are selling cars like hot-cakes. It's also rather odd that Chinese government officials and their military Generals just completed a tour of US training facilities with the proposed idea of training some of their pilots in the US and learning some of the new-age weapons technology. They completed the tour by ordering up billions of dollars worth of new Boeing a/c for their airline industry....and I believe the majority of Boeing is American owned and controlled. Since their #1 contract-supplier is the US military, I believe the US government would want to ensure that Boeing wasn't Chinese owned or controlled either.
Russia, Germany, England, France, Canada, the US and Korea have been supplying the world, including both Chinas, with weapons for decades, so what's new there? All Saddam's fighters were either Russian or French and all his French helicopter spare parts came from Marseilles, France and Ft. Erie, Ont at the Eurocopter plant. Maybe I'm misunderstanding something here because I don't see anything new in that department anyway. Canada, through their Commercial Business Company, makes $2.5B/year selling arms all over the world and they sell to China also.
My population and "real" oil consumption figures are from the CIA website. Simple mathematics made the "equivalent" consumption figures. This was a basic calculation and didn't even calculate for growth. If you have the OPEC report please tell us what it says about US and India daily oil consumption figures. No matter if the CIA figures are off a few million, the fact remains the world is consuming 85-95 million barrels a day and if China and India (alone) were to consume the same oil barrels per capita we are talking over 170 million barrels of oil per day. That is two times the current global consumption. Maybe China and India wont quite demand the same per capita oil consumption as the United States, but these are fast growing economies and their demand for oil will be large and can easily surpass Americas consumption and together surpass the global output today. Have you even considered the environmental impact of the globe consuming over 200 million barrels a day? Or the fact that the US is in such a sensitive economic position, rising oil prices could severely crash the economy. I am talking $150/barrel in 2 years and rising; Don't laugh, Goldman Sachs this week predicted that figure.
US is in massive debt (with interest), with very large, growing, trade deficits and China carrying the largest USA cash reserve. With a stroke of a pen (or a lighter) China *could* render American currency pretty much worthless. Of course it is not in China's interest at this time to devalue US currency, but it does show the power China has over the US. If there were ever an oil production supply crunch....... With the Iraqi war spinning America further into debt (with interest) things dont look rosy for Americas future. For some reason I dont think Bush will pull a JFK and sign an order like Executive Order 11110 http://www.archives.gov/federal_registe ... nnedy.html http://www.jfklibrary.org/exec_orders/eo11110.html to circumvent the (Private) Federal Reserve for some interest free capital. JFK didn't live long enough to implement the order. With Bush giving massive tax breaks and spending like there is no tommorrow it looks like more conquest and war is in Americas future.
I thought there was an arms embargo against China. I would be interested to see any evidence that Canada and/ or the US Germany etc sold arms to China.
I appologize for any runons and/or spelling grammar etc, I posted this under time constraints.
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just another pilot
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world oil crunch
Dex:
I think you are pretty much on track. The u.s. efforts at hegemony in the middle east are all the evidence that anyone needs. If oil prices double within a year from the current 55 bbl, as the main stream media pundits keep harping, it will be cruch time. The civil transportation industry at all levels will be screwed, not to mention western world economies.
I think you are pretty much on track. The u.s. efforts at hegemony in the middle east are all the evidence that anyone needs. If oil prices double within a year from the current 55 bbl, as the main stream media pundits keep harping, it will be cruch time. The civil transportation industry at all levels will be screwed, not to mention western world economies.
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North Shore
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Where is the oil going to come from? There's lots left in various nooks and crannies all over the world, but the rate at which it can be produced is soon going to start dropping. Combined with increased demand = rising prices.
Geez, sure wish that I could afford to buy a Smart car.
http://www.biodieselnow.org
Geez, sure wish that I could afford to buy a Smart car.
http://www.biodieselnow.org
Say, what's that mountain goat doing up here in the mist?
Happiness is V1 at Thompson!
Ass, Licence, Job. In that order.
Happiness is V1 at Thompson!
Ass, Licence, Job. In that order.
Dex -----if you you are using figures supplied by the CIA, I will say no more concerning your figures. I might suggest that you pick a more reliable source for your worldwide stats on anything. If you are saying that China could cripple the US economy if they so desired, then that proves that you better go back to university and punch your Prof up-side the head for feeding you wrong information.
Why is it do you suppose, that China resists all efforts to value her currency on the open world market? Do you have any idea? What do you surmise would happen if she did value her currency on the world monetary market? I won't waste the space here because it's too long. I suggest you get in touch with a knowledgeable money broker, who deals in the international monetary market. You are so far off-base that you aren't even in the ball park. To be blunt, China can cripple NO country in the world until she values her currency on the open market. Right now her currency is worth what the world money markets decide that it's worth. Do not be foolish enough to believe that the Chinese buy items on the world market with the Chinese yuan..........they use American dollars, otherwise they couldn't buy a bag of shit. When she does value her currency on the world market, she knows and so do a lot of others, exactly what will happen and it ain't pretty. Boris Putin knows a fair amount about that also. When you find out a way of getting China to do that, then you'll make an awful lot of wealthy Chinese gentlemen very happy and will have solved a horrendous problem for the WTO because they now have a member who has a currency that they can't value because the Chinese won't prove what gold reserves they have/don't have to back that currency up. That's all any currency is worth, because the actual paper is worth nothing........it's what it represents in that country's gold reserves that makes it worth anything..
In answer to your questions..........The US consumes between 20 and 22 millions of barrels/day. China produces 3/4 of her needs "in country" and from her own resources. The total world oil consumption stands at 75 millions of barrels/day or 4.47 barrels per capita. Don't fret about us in Canada either because we produce more than we consume. We supply the US with 15% of the oil that they use. If we didn't do that then we are totally self-sufficient. Since we do export that amount to the US, we import from Venezuela and that oil goes to sustain Eastern Canada. Venezuela went on a national strike last year and it lasted for 6 months, shutting down everything to do with oil. The Saudis and OPEC advised at that time that they could not make up the shortfall and oil industry experst were predicting then exactly what is happening now, but they didn't realize the seriousness of the future increase.
Lastly, I've been cutting back on my oil needs for almost 20 years........I use synthetic oil in my vehicles.
Why is it do you suppose, that China resists all efforts to value her currency on the open world market? Do you have any idea? What do you surmise would happen if she did value her currency on the world monetary market? I won't waste the space here because it's too long. I suggest you get in touch with a knowledgeable money broker, who deals in the international monetary market. You are so far off-base that you aren't even in the ball park. To be blunt, China can cripple NO country in the world until she values her currency on the open market. Right now her currency is worth what the world money markets decide that it's worth. Do not be foolish enough to believe that the Chinese buy items on the world market with the Chinese yuan..........they use American dollars, otherwise they couldn't buy a bag of shit. When she does value her currency on the world market, she knows and so do a lot of others, exactly what will happen and it ain't pretty. Boris Putin knows a fair amount about that also. When you find out a way of getting China to do that, then you'll make an awful lot of wealthy Chinese gentlemen very happy and will have solved a horrendous problem for the WTO because they now have a member who has a currency that they can't value because the Chinese won't prove what gold reserves they have/don't have to back that currency up. That's all any currency is worth, because the actual paper is worth nothing........it's what it represents in that country's gold reserves that makes it worth anything..
In answer to your questions..........The US consumes between 20 and 22 millions of barrels/day. China produces 3/4 of her needs "in country" and from her own resources. The total world oil consumption stands at 75 millions of barrels/day or 4.47 barrels per capita. Don't fret about us in Canada either because we produce more than we consume. We supply the US with 15% of the oil that they use. If we didn't do that then we are totally self-sufficient. Since we do export that amount to the US, we import from Venezuela and that oil goes to sustain Eastern Canada. Venezuela went on a national strike last year and it lasted for 6 months, shutting down everything to do with oil. The Saudis and OPEC advised at that time that they could not make up the shortfall and oil industry experst were predicting then exactly what is happening now, but they didn't realize the seriousness of the future increase.
Lastly, I've been cutting back on my oil needs for almost 20 years........I use synthetic oil in my vehicles.
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Vickers vanguard
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It's all by prior agreement and goes back over 50 years. We don't HAVE TO, we just signed an agreement to do so.
Where the confusion comes in about oil is that most people think oil is oil and it's that simple.......but it's far from that simple. There are different grades of oil.......some more "sweet" or pure than others and some very crude and it takes many diffent systems, time and money to refine. One of the prime areas in the world for "sweet" crude is Nigeria and the waters off Nigeria in the South Atlantic. Nigeria is having a problem with "insurgents' and guerrillas causing damage ot rigs and pipelines. That drives up the insurance costs and the resultant overhead for those companies producing that oil. The costs invariably get passed on down the line to us and others. Canada has 88 biilion barrels of oil in the Athabasca Tar Sands and it's "sweet", but costly to extract from the sand, so again there's oil and then there's oil.......it's not all the same and the Saudi oil isn't all "sweet" either. They don''t have anywhere near the ability to refine all that they produce and they send it to the west where it can be refined. The American refineries are the biggest in the world, but they cannot keep up with the demand for the REFINED product, so it must sit in "tank farms" until they can refine it. Therefore, there's a demand for oil yes, but the oil is present in the country, but the demand is outstripping the ability to refine it until they build more refineries......which there are big plans about right now. In the meantime, they rely on Mexico and Canada to help them get the refined product to the public and between both countries, we ship them almost 3/4 of what they import.
Where the confusion comes in about oil is that most people think oil is oil and it's that simple.......but it's far from that simple. There are different grades of oil.......some more "sweet" or pure than others and some very crude and it takes many diffent systems, time and money to refine. One of the prime areas in the world for "sweet" crude is Nigeria and the waters off Nigeria in the South Atlantic. Nigeria is having a problem with "insurgents' and guerrillas causing damage ot rigs and pipelines. That drives up the insurance costs and the resultant overhead for those companies producing that oil. The costs invariably get passed on down the line to us and others. Canada has 88 biilion barrels of oil in the Athabasca Tar Sands and it's "sweet", but costly to extract from the sand, so again there's oil and then there's oil.......it's not all the same and the Saudi oil isn't all "sweet" either. They don''t have anywhere near the ability to refine all that they produce and they send it to the west where it can be refined. The American refineries are the biggest in the world, but they cannot keep up with the demand for the REFINED product, so it must sit in "tank farms" until they can refine it. Therefore, there's a demand for oil yes, but the oil is present in the country, but the demand is outstripping the ability to refine it until they build more refineries......which there are big plans about right now. In the meantime, they rely on Mexico and Canada to help them get the refined product to the public and between both countries, we ship them almost 3/4 of what they import.
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Vickers vanguard
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another very good posting LH !
enjoyed the discussion on the chineese currency........
how do you see the chineese economy 5 years down the line ?
and one last question.........what the future holds for IRAQ ? what do you really think was the aim behind the US action in IRAQ ?
things are taking time and the country is still in dire state. On the political front, not much improvements.....
Was oil really a factor in all this story? or was it something else ? what do you think ?
enjoyed the discussion on the chineese currency........
how do you see the chineese economy 5 years down the line ?
and one last question.........what the future holds for IRAQ ? what do you really think was the aim behind the US action in IRAQ ?
things are taking time and the country is still in dire state. On the political front, not much improvements.....
Was oil really a factor in all this story? or was it something else ? what do you think ?
Vickers Vanguard ------China is going nowhere, but up now that they joi9ned the WTO. Slowly but surely, certain elements of democracy are being introduced to the economy and I think far in the future the same thing will happen to them as happened to the Soviets, but they aren't here yet. I ain't no expert, but I love reading financial books, opinions and watching the market because I realized a long time ago that those assholes that play the market can have a big effect just in one day if they decide to sell off a million shares of something and make a quick profit........and drive my price for it way up or way down whether I want the damn shit or not. Same as Allan Greenspan.........he talks and the "financial powers" worldwide stop and lsiten because if he farts the wrong way, someplace over the next 6 months maybe a 100,000 people will loose their jobs or worse.
The big danger for China is internal. There's a lot of wealth stored up internally in China and when they value their currency on the world market, then they run the risk of a lot of that capital leaving China enmasse into investments in the world ecomomy and that wealth may well stay external forever. China has valued her currency herself, but offered up no proof to anyone else that she can back that valuation up with proven gold reserves, so everyone else is taking China on her word because to offend her could be dangerous, should she prove in the future to have that back-up. So it's like you apply for and get a MC and state that you have such and such financial resources, but don't allow anyone to confirm that and they give you the credit based on their trust and belief that you are a wealthy man. They don't want to run the risk of pissing you off and loosing further revenue that you might generate for them, should you PROVE to be wealthy.
Iraq?.......a bad mistake that MIGHT just prove to be a success ONLY because of what is happening in neighbouring countries right now and that's only pure luck that it's happening now. I refer to Saudi Arabia allowing certain votes to take place recently and the happenings in Lebanon and Egypt. IF the clergy climb on board then it might just work, but without them it matters not what anyone does because the Imans in that part of the world hold the power. The Americans didn't work with them when they invaded Iraq, realized their mistake afterwards and are now trying to correct that. Just remember, the Soviets didn't pay heed to the power of the Pope or the Catholic Church and history is now showing that the Pope was a major catalyst in Poland and Russia and that's where the whole foundation of Communism in Europe started to crumble over time. Like Sralin supposedly replied when he was cautioned about the power of the Pope, "So how many Divisions does the Pope have?". He'd have found out if he'd have lived that long........and I'm not a member of the Catholic Church either by the way.
No oil comes out of the ground in the Middle east or elsewhere without some kind of American or Canadian resources or technology involved.....not one drum.. We either explore for it, drill for it, build the rigs for it, supply (build) the other equipment for it, supplly the crews for it, transportation for it, shipping for it, oil field fire-fighting abilities for it, all the insurance for those various resources, the Unions for it or the refining capibilitties for it. At some point in all of it worldwide, people MUST deal with us before it ever gets to our fuel tanks......otherwise they are screwed. There are appromiately 1,449 oil rigs in the Gulf right now and each and everyone of them has some American/Canadian involvement in them in some way....and in many cases, that involvement is 100%. Those rigs all sit in the Gulf on water and the crews and supplies must all be flown there. Canadian Helicopters International out of St. John's, NFLD does the vast majority of that worldwide under thier name and other various company names that they also own 100% of.......ditto for the North Sea. Saftety Boss, Red Deer, AB are the pre-eminent leaders worldwide in oil field fire-fighting and were the leaders in putting out the burning Kuwaiti oil fields. Those resources must be present in ALL oil fields or else the insurance companies will not insure the rigs. If they won't insure the rigs, then the Unions will not allow their members to work on those rigs. If the insurance isn't present, then the insurance firms that service the a/c firms wiill not issue insurance for those a/c and everything grinds to a halt regardless of what the King of Arabia wants. Now do you think that if you were insuring oil rigs in all the Middle East, Iraq and Nigeria right now, that you would be demanding low premiums or high ones from your customers? If you are paying those high premiums, who do you think you will pass on those costs to? Would you be happy with George W. Bush then for making your exploration for oil more dangerous then? If you were driving your car in some place where a war was going on, do you think your insurance rates would be the same as now or higher? You don't even want to know what the premium/day would be for insurance on an ocean-going oil rig in good times, never mind one operating within a defined combat zone with insurgents blowing things up everyday.
The big danger for China is internal. There's a lot of wealth stored up internally in China and when they value their currency on the world market, then they run the risk of a lot of that capital leaving China enmasse into investments in the world ecomomy and that wealth may well stay external forever. China has valued her currency herself, but offered up no proof to anyone else that she can back that valuation up with proven gold reserves, so everyone else is taking China on her word because to offend her could be dangerous, should she prove in the future to have that back-up. So it's like you apply for and get a MC and state that you have such and such financial resources, but don't allow anyone to confirm that and they give you the credit based on their trust and belief that you are a wealthy man. They don't want to run the risk of pissing you off and loosing further revenue that you might generate for them, should you PROVE to be wealthy.
Iraq?.......a bad mistake that MIGHT just prove to be a success ONLY because of what is happening in neighbouring countries right now and that's only pure luck that it's happening now. I refer to Saudi Arabia allowing certain votes to take place recently and the happenings in Lebanon and Egypt. IF the clergy climb on board then it might just work, but without them it matters not what anyone does because the Imans in that part of the world hold the power. The Americans didn't work with them when they invaded Iraq, realized their mistake afterwards and are now trying to correct that. Just remember, the Soviets didn't pay heed to the power of the Pope or the Catholic Church and history is now showing that the Pope was a major catalyst in Poland and Russia and that's where the whole foundation of Communism in Europe started to crumble over time. Like Sralin supposedly replied when he was cautioned about the power of the Pope, "So how many Divisions does the Pope have?". He'd have found out if he'd have lived that long........and I'm not a member of the Catholic Church either by the way.
No oil comes out of the ground in the Middle east or elsewhere without some kind of American or Canadian resources or technology involved.....not one drum.. We either explore for it, drill for it, build the rigs for it, supply (build) the other equipment for it, supplly the crews for it, transportation for it, shipping for it, oil field fire-fighting abilities for it, all the insurance for those various resources, the Unions for it or the refining capibilitties for it. At some point in all of it worldwide, people MUST deal with us before it ever gets to our fuel tanks......otherwise they are screwed. There are appromiately 1,449 oil rigs in the Gulf right now and each and everyone of them has some American/Canadian involvement in them in some way....and in many cases, that involvement is 100%. Those rigs all sit in the Gulf on water and the crews and supplies must all be flown there. Canadian Helicopters International out of St. John's, NFLD does the vast majority of that worldwide under thier name and other various company names that they also own 100% of.......ditto for the North Sea. Saftety Boss, Red Deer, AB are the pre-eminent leaders worldwide in oil field fire-fighting and were the leaders in putting out the burning Kuwaiti oil fields. Those resources must be present in ALL oil fields or else the insurance companies will not insure the rigs. If they won't insure the rigs, then the Unions will not allow their members to work on those rigs. If the insurance isn't present, then the insurance firms that service the a/c firms wiill not issue insurance for those a/c and everything grinds to a halt regardless of what the King of Arabia wants. Now do you think that if you were insuring oil rigs in all the Middle East, Iraq and Nigeria right now, that you would be demanding low premiums or high ones from your customers? If you are paying those high premiums, who do you think you will pass on those costs to? Would you be happy with George W. Bush then for making your exploration for oil more dangerous then? If you were driving your car in some place where a war was going on, do you think your insurance rates would be the same as now or higher? You don't even want to know what the premium/day would be for insurance on an ocean-going oil rig in good times, never mind one operating within a defined combat zone with insurgents blowing things up everyday.
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Vickers vanguard
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LH...thanks for shedding some light on the oil issue......it's always a pleasure to read your postings in the political forum.....very informative indeed 
one question remains.....the reason or reasons for the intervention in IRAQ ?
Was it just a matter of a regime change ? if that's the case, who would have benefited from that ?....I'm not a military expert but I'm sure there could have been a better way to do that. Why not invade the south part of the country with the shia majority and the northern part with the kurds, arm and train both and let them do the dirty job in the center of the country....with enough air support and logistics. I'm sure the civilian losses would have been less and we would not have seen that chaos that followed...looting,crimes,etc..... it's their own country and they know it better than anybodyelse. Once a democratic regime was established and the army formed, there would have been no turning back.
anyway, I think I'm to idealist and things don't happen like that...... I'm sure there's more to it than what meet the eye.....I'd be curious to know the underlying reasons....
one question remains.....the reason or reasons for the intervention in IRAQ ?
Was it just a matter of a regime change ? if that's the case, who would have benefited from that ?....I'm not a military expert but I'm sure there could have been a better way to do that. Why not invade the south part of the country with the shia majority and the northern part with the kurds, arm and train both and let them do the dirty job in the center of the country....with enough air support and logistics. I'm sure the civilian losses would have been less and we would not have seen that chaos that followed...looting,crimes,etc..... it's their own country and they know it better than anybodyelse. Once a democratic regime was established and the army formed, there would have been no turning back.
anyway, I think I'm to idealist and things don't happen like that...... I'm sure there's more to it than what meet the eye.....I'd be curious to know the underlying reasons....
Vickers Vanguard ------all the US "high brows" had to do was look at the recorded British history in that area from the 20's. They didn't or they did and thought that they could do better. The Brits were twice as stupid to join them because they had their own British Army history of recorded records and probably some still alive that had fought there in the 20's. So as far as stipidity and ignorance goes, Tony Blair has George Bush beat "in spades". because he had the graves of British KIA in Iraq during the 20's to look at as a reminder. As far as "collateral damage" is concerned, the days when you can conduct any kind of war without killing civilians is long gone and in fact, many times nowadays, the civilian population are the ones who will be the direct targets in reality. People get a lot more annoyed and quicker when they see women and children killed than they will when they see numerous soldiers dead. You mentioned "democratic regime" also. They have no history of any form of democracy, so they don't even understand what it is....so how do you establish something that you first have to explain to people who don't speak your language? In short, the whole scenario was a huge ill-thought-out adventure that's costing the US approximately $4B/month. Nobody should worry about the US and that monthly cost though because they haven't come close to what the monthly cost was for Vietnam yet. They still got a long way to go yet.
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Vickers vanguard
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Agreed, but............better late(democracy) than never !!!LH wrote: You mentioned "democratic regime" also. They have no history of any form of democracy, so they don't even understand what it is.....
I think a lot do understand democracy, or at least the basics.....look what happened in Lebanon, Iran, Egypt..etc.....
there is so much the west can do without even endangering any of their citizens by just using trade sanctions and political pressure, but they have to do it in one front using one standard for all, no double standards .....which has never been the case so far.....and yes, you'll have sometimes to get the military overthere for that .
What bugs me is how can you justify using taxpayer money to fund such operation like in IRAQ without real financial incentives or strategic benefits... and I still don't understand which one of these was the driving factor .....wonder though !!!
How is the US planning to recoupe their costs once all this is over ?
Vickers Vanguard ------ how are you going to have embargoes of any kind against a country if everyone else isn't in it with you? The UN tried it against Iraq and all the while it was in force, Canada, France, Russia, Germany, North Korea, China and South Africa were doing business with Saddam. Then people wonder why the US would be pissed off, when they are flying guard on the "no fly zone' with the Brits and weapons made by France Germany, etc, etc. are being fired against them. If that was a family that was supposed to be working together, it would be termed "dysfunctional".
Bottom-line: the mistake was made during the first Gulf War when everyone was working together, they had Saddam Hussein "on his knees" and he could've been "taken out" easily........BUT Bush Sr. pulled-up and stopped. The supposed reason was the danger of fighting further and causing more deaths amongst the Iraqi civilian population. If WW2 would have ended the same way, does anyone really think that Germany wouild have been "put down" or that Hitler would have disappeared somehow. We had Hitler on his knees and we finished the job and that was the end of him period. Why fight the same stupid war twice and loose even more lives?
Bottom-line: the mistake was made during the first Gulf War when everyone was working together, they had Saddam Hussein "on his knees" and he could've been "taken out" easily........BUT Bush Sr. pulled-up and stopped. The supposed reason was the danger of fighting further and causing more deaths amongst the Iraqi civilian population. If WW2 would have ended the same way, does anyone really think that Germany wouild have been "put down" or that Hitler would have disappeared somehow. We had Hitler on his knees and we finished the job and that was the end of him period. Why fight the same stupid war twice and loose even more lives?
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Vickers vanguard
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you're right LH.......they had him during the first gulf war !!!!! but didn't go all the way to baghdad ! and you know what ? there would have been no need for useless embargo, much less civilian casualties and the infrastructure would have been mostly intact .......
But I really think that the reason for not removing the regime at that time was done on purpose......probably to keep him in the area so he can represent a constant threat for the gulf countries.....and god knows what else !! I don't get it yet, but it seems that for some powers, there is a need to maintain some tensions if they exist or come up with a plan to create them if they don't.
But I really think that the reason for not removing the regime at that time was done on purpose......probably to keep him in the area so he can represent a constant threat for the gulf countries.....and god knows what else !! I don't get it yet, but it seems that for some powers, there is a need to maintain some tensions if they exist or come up with a plan to create them if they don't.
Vickers -------every year that the Vietnam War went on Canadian Commercial (the international business agency of the Canadian government) made an estimated $1.5B USD off of supplies for that war to the US. I served in that war and every boot I put on was made in Montreal....ditto for the rest of my battle fatigues and ALL ammo I fired from the a/c, including the 15 rockets I carried. ALL napalm was made by Dow Chemical of Montreal........but remember....Canada didn't approve of that war and wasn't involved......Right! I could continue, but you see the point. The amount of international trade in arms that passes through Canadian ports, bound for other countries world-wide is beyond imagination. I constantly hear about the illegal weapons that crime organizations have in Canada and it's supposed that they come across the border from the US. Some do of course, but the vast majority are stolen from the docks and warehouses of Vancouver and Montreal. Smith & Wesson, Ruger, Colt, etc, etc are all made under license in the Far East and elsewhere worldwide and shipped all over the place.......they NEVER see the US and weren't made there. Why bother bringing something over the damn border when it sits in containers, bound from other countries and for other countries and sits awaiting further shipment from Canadian soil. The RCMP can back-up all those statements and figures......it's no secret.
Supplying buyers wih arms is a major international industry for brokers and countries and most of the conflicts in the world couldn't have happened without that arms trade. Stop that and you've solved a big problem......but it ain't going to happen because it's been going on since Nobel invented dynamite. Take a look at the weapons Saddam had and how many of them were Iraqi-made. You could do the same for the whole Middle East for that matter and with the exception of Israel, the vast majority of their weapons are foreign made.
Supplying buyers wih arms is a major international industry for brokers and countries and most of the conflicts in the world couldn't have happened without that arms trade. Stop that and you've solved a big problem......but it ain't going to happen because it's been going on since Nobel invented dynamite. Take a look at the weapons Saddam had and how many of them were Iraqi-made. You could do the same for the whole Middle East for that matter and with the exception of Israel, the vast majority of their weapons are foreign made.
