The End of Aviation?
Moderators: sky's the limit, sepia, Sulako, lilfssister, North Shore, I WAS Birddog
Fossil fuels are used for a whole mess of other things besides "powering" something, so when we change over from our reliance on fossil fuels, we haven't even begun to get started by curtailing or substituting their use in transportation. Start with a majority of plastics.
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Right Seat Captain
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LH wrote:Fossil fuels are used for a whole mess of other things besides "powering" something, so when we change over from our reliance on fossil fuels, we haven't even begun to get started by curtailing or substituting their use in transportation. Start with a majority of plastics.
Things that started out as oil:
- All plastics (styrofoam, PVC, Polyethylene,....) and just about all rubber
- nylon, polyester
- detergent
- insulation
- paint
- vitamins and medicine
- Fertilizer
- Asphalt
The list goes on...
It's also important to note that many of these things CANNOT be produced using biofuel, mainly due to the fact that biofuel does not contain the same material as crude oil.
.........and cars will be VERY much lighter because after you strip all the plastic off of them there isn't all that much left. I wonder if the Amish will step-in and start up some Rent-a-Horse-and-Buggy outlets? Still a problem there though because horses fart and that's methane gas and that contibutes to the "green house effect". 
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North Shore
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Just a few quotes, and observations:
Good thread, JBI. See, I wasn't just getting bushed when I brought this up on Dominion Bay!
That is true, but it doesn't really help matters much, as the rateat which it is produced is minimal compared to the rate at which we use it (~Millon Bbl/day vs 20Million Bbl/day.)As of recent, the second-largest KNOWN oil reserves in the world are right here in Canada....at Ft. McMurray, AB. The conservative estimate of KNOWN oil and gas reserves in the world is enough to last the world for 80 years
Economists...if those guys were doctors, they would have been sued into poverty by malpractice by now - they always have some excuse as to why their black magic didn't work. That being said, it's not that easy, W2. As soon as the price of oil goes up to the point where biofuels become economical, then they will be produced, and then the price of oil will go down, due to lack of demand, and so there will be an uneasy co-existence for years, while we merrily burn up a vital (plastics, medicines, etc...) non-renewable resource. Also, the price of oil in North America is so heavily subsidised, biofuels don't really stand much of a chance. Subsidies, you say? Yup. Several US$ Billion a year to prop up the Saudi regime; Iraq is costing about $500 million a week, all of it out of the defence budget, and all to safeguard oil supply. If that was factored in to the price per barrel, then things might be a little different...The reality is that our addiction to fossile fuels will change only when it becomes economically necessary. Our economy and culture is so intertwined with fossil fuels that the change will only take place when they become prohibitively expensive.
The beauty of some of those things (plastics, for example)is that the oil is still there in the finished product, and can be chemically converted back into the original substance - a good argument for a strong recycling program...Also, the quantities of oil that we use to produce these things pales in comparison to the amount that we "waste" on transportation...Things that started out as oil:
- All plastics (styrofoam, PVC, Polyethylene,....) and just about all rubber
- nylon, polyester
- detergent
- insulation
- paint
- vitamins and medicine
- Fertilizer
- Asphalt
Good thread, JBI. See, I wasn't just getting bushed when I brought this up on Dominion Bay!
Say, what's that mountain goat doing up here in the mist?
Happiness is V1 at Thompson!
Ass, Licence, Job. In that order.
Happiness is V1 at Thompson!
Ass, Licence, Job. In that order.
Actually I have quite a bit of research under my belt in this area. In my home at this minute are 15 samples of plastics (psuedo plastics if you prefer) that require NO petrochemicals in thier manufacture. One nice clear sample that I have in front of me, is manufactured out of cornstarch and is biodegradeable when bombarded with UV light. The point I am making is that options are available. Many have been available for quite some time, but we as a people must be prepared to invest in the future.
I know, fat chance of that, but I continue to hope.
I know, fat chance of that, but I continue to hope.
My information comes from OPEC. They are the largest producers, but the vast majority of the world's oil producers are NOT members of OPEC....and that's a common misconception furthered by the news media. As a example:
(1) 40% of the oil imported into the US goes towrds anything to do with gas or diesel fuel.
(2) the US imports 55% of its' oil needs. 15.1% from Mexico; 15.0% from Canada; 14.4% from Venezuela; 5.9% from Nigeria and the rest from Arab countries.
(3) world consumption: 76 million barrels/day. Estimated reserves: 3 trillion barrels/day. World per capita consumption over the last 10 years: 4.47 barrels/day.
(4) Canada prduces 2.749 million barrels/day and our consumption is 2.040 million barrels/day.
(5) The top 10 oil producers in the world are:
1. Saudi Arabia - 8.528 million barrels/day
2. US - 8.091 million barrels/day
3. Russia - 7.014 m/b/day
4. Iran - 3.775 m/b/day
5. Mexico - 3.560 m/b/day
6. Norway - 3.408 m/b/day
7. China - 3.297 m/b/day
8. Venezeula - 3.137 m/b/day
9. Canada - 2.749 m/b/day
10. UAE - 2.550 m/b/day
The world produces annually 28,180 millions of barrels/day and consumes annually 28,460 millions of barrels/day.
The prime/best oil is "sweet" crude oil and that is found in abundance in Nigeria. It's the purest (sweet) and takes much less time to refine that Arab oil, although they also have a small amount of that also.
The Russians are the country to watch. They can whenever they so wish, increase production to surpass the Saudis by a large margin and become #1 in the world, but choose not to do so because it would affect the price of oil worldwide too much for their liking. The result of all of the above is that if the Arabs dropped off the face of the earth, the price of oil would definitely go skyward, BUT we could exist and function worldwide WITHOUT them.......and ALL of the above comes from OPEC themselves in their 2004 Annual Report and they include in that report all the figures from the rest of the world. This part part I like the best.......the NUMBER 1 producer of natural gas IN THE WORLD is Canada AND if Canada did not export any of it's oil, it could supply itself totally from within and have to import NONE. The vast majority of what is imported comes from Venezuela and is destined for use in eastern Canada.
(1) 40% of the oil imported into the US goes towrds anything to do with gas or diesel fuel.
(2) the US imports 55% of its' oil needs. 15.1% from Mexico; 15.0% from Canada; 14.4% from Venezuela; 5.9% from Nigeria and the rest from Arab countries.
(3) world consumption: 76 million barrels/day. Estimated reserves: 3 trillion barrels/day. World per capita consumption over the last 10 years: 4.47 barrels/day.
(4) Canada prduces 2.749 million barrels/day and our consumption is 2.040 million barrels/day.
(5) The top 10 oil producers in the world are:
1. Saudi Arabia - 8.528 million barrels/day
2. US - 8.091 million barrels/day
3. Russia - 7.014 m/b/day
4. Iran - 3.775 m/b/day
5. Mexico - 3.560 m/b/day
6. Norway - 3.408 m/b/day
7. China - 3.297 m/b/day
8. Venezeula - 3.137 m/b/day
9. Canada - 2.749 m/b/day
10. UAE - 2.550 m/b/day
The world produces annually 28,180 millions of barrels/day and consumes annually 28,460 millions of barrels/day.
The prime/best oil is "sweet" crude oil and that is found in abundance in Nigeria. It's the purest (sweet) and takes much less time to refine that Arab oil, although they also have a small amount of that also.
The Russians are the country to watch. They can whenever they so wish, increase production to surpass the Saudis by a large margin and become #1 in the world, but choose not to do so because it would affect the price of oil worldwide too much for their liking. The result of all of the above is that if the Arabs dropped off the face of the earth, the price of oil would definitely go skyward, BUT we could exist and function worldwide WITHOUT them.......and ALL of the above comes from OPEC themselves in their 2004 Annual Report and they include in that report all the figures from the rest of the world. This part part I like the best.......the NUMBER 1 producer of natural gas IN THE WORLD is Canada AND if Canada did not export any of it's oil, it could supply itself totally from within and have to import NONE. The vast majority of what is imported comes from Venezuela and is destined for use in eastern Canada.
all we can do if hope... more and more people are choosing to fly these days and that just means for need for pilots... with companies like west jet, jazz and perimeter picking up then we may have something to look forward to... Sorry to all the skyward and flying club people!! Hang in there.. it may be a long tunnel but there has to be a light at the end.
Don't forget also folks that we are also battling the world of IT. No longer is the necessity that great for companies to send reps to company meetings across Canada by air like they did in years gone by. That's dropped off a lot because they can now have those meetings, with all attending, by using a screen and IT. So there are a lot of factors at play here and sometimes they go unnoticed. The hassles with going to any airport have also had their effect and shouldn't be written-off lightly.
One of the things I've noticed working in the oilpatch is the enormous amount of fossil fuel that is burned just getting the stuff out of the ground. I've been on one lease where the company had spent nearly half a million dollars to drill a beautiful, absolutely gunbarrel-straight 3100m hole that was completely dry. Case in point. There is a tremendous amount of waste that goes on in oil exploration and extraction, some of which is just inherent in the process and can't be easily eliminated. My point is this: any perceived shortage, real or not, will have the effect of raising oil prices. Thus, even if you are not extracting as much anymore, that reduced quantity is still worth so much that the expense of getting it to surface is justified. This will go on until there is so little left in the ground that improved technologies and more efficient extraction practices will STILL not make it viable to go after it. That may not happen for a long time.
Automobiles have become so clean in the last decade or so that tailpipe emissions is no longer the critical issue - the availability of gasoline is. I forget the exact breakdown (maybe someone can help me out here) but I believe that every barrel of crude oil produces 1 litre of avgas but roughly 33 litres of jet fuel. In any case, far more diesel than gasoline. My predictions in the short term are as follows: Turbine engines will continue to dominate in air transport, but the gasoline piston engine will disappear over time from GA. Instead, we will see Cessnas and Pipers produced and retrofitted with turbocharged piston and rotary diesel engines running on Jet A1.
Eventually, the rising cost of Jet fuel and environmental pressures will spark a second change - a switch from fossil-fuel based Jet A1 to a new turbine fuel based on biodiesel. When all this will happen is anybody's guess, but I suspect that all these things are in the works.
But aviation is here to stay. That I'm certain of.
Automobiles have become so clean in the last decade or so that tailpipe emissions is no longer the critical issue - the availability of gasoline is. I forget the exact breakdown (maybe someone can help me out here) but I believe that every barrel of crude oil produces 1 litre of avgas but roughly 33 litres of jet fuel. In any case, far more diesel than gasoline. My predictions in the short term are as follows: Turbine engines will continue to dominate in air transport, but the gasoline piston engine will disappear over time from GA. Instead, we will see Cessnas and Pipers produced and retrofitted with turbocharged piston and rotary diesel engines running on Jet A1.
Eventually, the rising cost of Jet fuel and environmental pressures will spark a second change - a switch from fossil-fuel based Jet A1 to a new turbine fuel based on biodiesel. When all this will happen is anybody's guess, but I suspect that all these things are in the works.
But aviation is here to stay. That I'm certain of.
Understanding begets harmony; in seeking the first you will find the last.
There's also another factor at play here and one which has been forgotten about or not realized at all. Exploration for oil worldwide dropped off horrendously when the prices were extremely low (as in less than $24/drum). It takes years and multi millions to explore for oil anywhere in the world and you can't slow that "beast" down to a crawl and then when prices rise quickly, get it up and rolling again at the same speed. It can take a decade from start to the point where a dry land rig or worse yet, an ocean-going rig, is starting to work. One third of all the holes punched in the ground in Saudi Arabia were "dry holes" and averaged 7000' - 9000' in depth. The cost of drilling those holes for manpower, etc, as stated, is enough to make a buzzard cry and then it can end up dry. That situation has always existed though.
The other factor is that this present oil price was foretold 1 year ago and few listened. The reason for that was the amount of oil that Venezuela produces to the world and specially North America. They had a strike there that went on for 6 months and shut ALL oil production facilities down. They said then and again, few paid attention, that the rest of OPEC could not "spool-up" production enough or quickly enough to compensate for that amount of production leaving the market place. It takes at least a month and half for OPEC to increase production by just 1 million barrels, then it also has to be transported and it doesn't happen like ordering a burger at MacDonald's. No matter what a person's view on this particular subject is, with the state and speed of present day technology will solve the problem. All I have to do is look at how something as simple as TV has changed over the last 20 years, etc.
The other factor is that this present oil price was foretold 1 year ago and few listened. The reason for that was the amount of oil that Venezuela produces to the world and specially North America. They had a strike there that went on for 6 months and shut ALL oil production facilities down. They said then and again, few paid attention, that the rest of OPEC could not "spool-up" production enough or quickly enough to compensate for that amount of production leaving the market place. It takes at least a month and half for OPEC to increase production by just 1 million barrels, then it also has to be transported and it doesn't happen like ordering a burger at MacDonald's. No matter what a person's view on this particular subject is, with the state and speed of present day technology will solve the problem. All I have to do is look at how something as simple as TV has changed over the last 20 years, etc.
Nuclear Engines
I read an article not long ago in popular mechanics about nuclear aircraft. The way it works is that the heat from a small reactor(s) is discharged through the hot section of a turbine engine. Could work well but obviously a scary prospect in the event of a crash. Does anyone know anymore about this topic?
