What is happening this year? Why so many fatalities?

[dirtpoorflyr]

I just read another post on another missing aircraft.
"

Another day, another accident...Really hope that the occupants will be found alive and we won't have to add two more unfortunate souls to the long grim list of this year's aviation fatalities in Canada.

I must admit this is really starting to get to me. The above quote seems to hit home, but my mind won't stop here. Why such a rash of accidents ? Is there a common denominator here?
I have heard many theories such as; Not enough experience, Pushing the limits, Poor training, Pilots become complacent, Flight schools will train anyone, Instructors are too inexperienced, Weather, Pilots are too old or too young, Too confident, Fatigue, Aircraft are too old, Aircraft are poorly maintained, Operators pushing too hard, or cutting corners, The recession.
The problem is no category seems to explain the rash of accidents this year.
I have questioned my own training, attitude, and knowledge, Have I missed something that will eventually be my demise? Who is next?
There must be an answer to why such a rise in accidents, Has TSB found the answer?
Maybe some good constructive discussion on the subject will help.

[Gino Under]

The answer isn't simple.
There are many factors affecting the current accident rate, worldwide.
In the airline world, the pilot experience levels are dropping like a stone and the backgrounds aren't entirely up to snuff. Included in the mix are nationalistic attitudes that accelerate some pilots to command who have no business being in command. Add to that a fairly high level of sophistication in aircraft and their design to maximize the automation and you end up with some pretty interesting results. Not all of them pretty.

Despite agressive industry reaction, it isn't going to get better.

Airlines want to spend less and less on training and pilot salaries in the ever decreasing reality of profits or the lack thereof. Everytime you have a hull loss the accident investigators in many cases point to the requirement for more training. This places additional pressure on companies to add training especially specialized courses for pilots. This is creating a spiral and I'm afraid it isn't headed upwards.

We're lucky in Canada, where the accident rate still remains relatively tame.

Gino Under

[LegoMan]

The answer isn't simple.
There are many factors affecting the current accident rate, worldwide.
In the airline world, the pilot experience levels are dropping like a stone and the backgrounds aren't entirely up to snuff. Included in the mix are nationalistic attitudes that accelerate some pilots to command who have no business being in command. Add to that a fairly high level of sophistication in aircraft and their design to maximize the automation and you end up with some pretty interesting results. Not all of them pretty.

Despite agressive industry reaction, it isn't going to get better.

Airlines want to spend less and less on training and pilot salaries in the ever decreasing reality of profits or the lack thereof. Everytime you have a hull loss the accident investigators in many cases point to the requirement for more training. This places additional pressure on companies to add training especially specialized courses for pilots. This is creating a spiral and I'm afraid it isn't headed upwards.

We're lucky in Canada, where the accident rate still remains relatively tame.

Gino Under

I don't know if you've been reading the same news I have, but we have had several fatal accidents, I can think of at least a dozen off the top of my head. Our accidents also usually end with the operator getting shut down or having their OC suspended.

The problem is people in general and not only with aviation but with everything, want something for nothing. They want to fly cheap but don't realize the cost to operate an airline. If your price is set too high, people wont fly. If its too low, you wont be able to cover your cost. Its difficult as it is just to stay running out of the red, now you have to compete. I am under the opinion that the entire industry will have to collapse and rebuild or else it will never get better, kind of like patching a highway vs. repaving it. Too many things gone wrong and unlikely they will change without a drastic circumstance or reason to.

[altiplano]

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[Rubberbiscuit]

What part do the accidents primarily fall within? That is your answer... Inadequate training and 24 month PPC's mixed with inexperience and high levels of fatigue from non-stop 14 hour duty days for weeks on end operating fully loaded scabby aircraft with nil regulator oversight... paying your dues indeed... I call it trying to get through alive.

703 and to a somewhat lesser extent 704 is a bad joke - a minefield planted with these potential bombs. Watch where you step!

Fatigue? Sure. Long Duty Days? Sure. 24 Month PPC's? I doubt it. In my 18 years of flying I had to do PPcs at intervals of 6, 12 and 24 months at the 703, 704 and 705 level. I can tell you with 100% certainty I was not one iota less safe for doing 24 month PPC's vs.doing one every 6 or 12 months. You still have to do recurrent training either way, and if the training is of any kind of quality a PPC is just a matter of hoop jumping. Many airlines do not have PPCs any more, but rater train to standard. We do not have it where I work, but I learn more from our line oriented training type sessions than doing the same old engine failures and fire drills, over and over and over. More important than any PPC is also the matter of being current. Current on the a/c, have you flown in the area before or lately, how fresh is your IFR skills etc etc. Doing a PPC every 12 months does not make you current.

You could have PPCs every three months and it would not do squat, if you do not know your own limitations. I spent a decade or more in the bush and attribute the fact that I am still alive to knowing my own limitations (and some luck of course). I did not let the fact that others were going, or the urge to get hours, get in the way of the fact that I would be well outside my skill or comfort zone.

Lack of oversight? Maybe. But that is hard to judge. When TC shows up everywhere, everyone bitches and complains that they get in the way of you daily activities. Is there to be a designated TC Inspector watching each and every operator 24/7? Should there be a police officer dedicated to follow everyone with a criminal record or suspected of bad intent 24/7? Not practical I am afraid, and that is why there are books with rules to follow. Captains..... the PILOT IN COMMAND, the one ultimately responsible, must be just that... responsible, whether driving a 172 or 747. No your own limitations, don't try to be a hero, know when to say no... even if it is the hardest thing, as Cat says.

Sadly and as usual, I suspect at least 90% of this rash of accidents will be attributed to pilot error.

[Old fella]

I just read another post on another missing aircraft.
"

Another day, another accident...Really hope that the occupants will be found alive and we won't have to add two more unfortunate souls to the long grim list of this year's aviation fatalities in Canada.

I must admit this is really starting to get to me. The above quote seems to hit home, but my mind won't stop here. Why such a rash of accidents ? Is there a common denominator here?
I have heard many theories such as; Not enough experience, Pushing the limits, Poor training, Pilots become complacent, Flight schools will train anyone, Instructors are too inexperienced, Weather, Pilots are too old or too young, Too confident, Fatigue, Aircraft are too old, Aircraft are poorly maintained, Operators pushing too hard, or cutting corners, The recession.
The problem is no category seems to explain the rash of accidents this year.
I have questioned my own training, attitude, and knowledge, Have I missed something that will eventually be my demise? Who is next?
There must be an answer to why such a rise in accidents, Has TSB found the answer?
Maybe some good constructive discussion on the subject will help.

.


Much the same commentary/issues was voiced when I started out in 1975. Only difference now is there is more access to what is going on with the availability of aviation forums/blogs/RSS feeds/on-line subscriptions with the MSM and of course WEB availability on the investigative process.......

[modi13]

Much the same commentary/issues was voiced when I started out in 1975. Only difference now is there is more access to what is going on with the availability of aviation forums/blogs/RSS feeds/on-line subscriptions with the MSM and of course WEB availability on the investigative process.......[/quote]

I agree. I don't think it's so much that there are more accidents, as that more are being reported on. We have greater access to media than ever before, and that media is under constant pressure to provide more reports faster than the competition. 20 years ago there wasn't sufficient time in a one-hour news segment to comment on a missing light aircraft, unless it occured in the local area.

[xsbank]

No point arguing whether there are less or more than there used to be - there's too %@*^$^# many!

And most of them are the same old same old - maybe go to your local library and read up on the 'old' Safety Letters and see why pilots are getting killed and ask yourself WHY are pilots dying? Same stupid stuff that I saw 30 years ago.

"Learn from the mistakes of others; you'll not live long enough to make them all yourself."

[ywglive]

There are many factors, but I think people get complacent. Went for a check ride at a flight school recently so I could rent from them and I was shocked how little the instructors knew.

[CFR]

I think there is something wrong with the air! It isn't holding planes up the way it used to!

[Old fella]

I think there is something wrong with the air! It isn't holding planes up the way it used to!

[modi13]

I think there is something wrong with the air! It isn't holding planes up the way it used to!

I retract my previous statement; this is obviously the result of global warming.

[Old fella]

No point arguing whether there are less or more than there used to be - there's too %@*^$^# many!

And most of them are the same old same old - maybe go to your local library and read up on the 'old' Safety Letters and see why pilots are getting killed and ask yourself WHY are pilots dying? Same stupid stuff that I saw 30 years ago.

"Learn from the mistakes of others; you'll not live long enough to make them all yourself."

.


Not arguing there xsbank, just stating an opinion, but your point(s) are certainly valid. 30 yrs ago, as you know, accident discussions/topics/bitching were usually over a few(many) beers at the local watering hole with the usual selection of buds. Nowdays, with forums like PPrune the usual speculation runs high on major accidents but the speculators doing the posting do have very good backgrounds on the topics discussed. But you are right - its the same old, same old.....

[x-wind]

Doesn't sound like Aeropro or Conair will be found to be pilot error.

[loopa]

I am wondering if the tough economic conditions has put any extra stress on current airmen? Not that being paid peanuts is something new, but I wonder if having a tough situation at home as a result of economic lapse is causing more restless pilots going to work and making more mistakes?

Not sure

[winds_in_flight_wtf]

When one minor or major incident happens in the airline world - it draws the media’s attention. If it happens twice - well, naturally ...it draws the media and viewers attention even more. Well, a third time makes us paranoid. I’d say when it gets to this point each and every single incident appears in threads , stories, etc. MORE ACCIDENTS start happening! Weird? I think that these accidents / incidents were happening all over North America all along. It’s not like our SAR boys down in Trenton are now working their A$$es off for a change!

[CpnCrunch]

Actually, there have been much FEWER fatalities this year than last year (at least up until May):

http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/stats/aviation ... 5-2010.asp

The stats for this year are 'average'.

Of course, as a previous poster pointed out, even one avoidable fatality is one too many.

Pilot error is the primary cause of 70-80% of fatal accidents:

http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/09nall.pdf

So as xsbank says above, it's the same old again and again - pilots doing the same old stupid shit and getting themselves and their passengers killed. Don't let yourself be the next statistic!

[mag check]

Actually, there have been much FEWER fatalities this year than last year (at least up until May):

http://www.tsb.gc.ca/eng/stats/aviation ... 5-2010.asp

The stats for this year are 'average'.

Of course, as a previous poster pointed out, even one avoidable fatality is one too many.

Pilot error is the primary cause of 70-80% of fatal accidents:

http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/09nall.pdf

So as xsbank says above, it's the same old again and again - pilots doing the same old stupid shit and getting themselves and their passengers killed. Don't let yourself be the next statistic!

Exactly. The stats don't lie, the rates/causes of accidents have remained fairly constant since the inception of aviation, and I suspect they won't change.

Doesn't sound like Aeropro or Conair will be found to be pilot error.

Why do you say that?

[snowshoe]

[quote]xsbank wrote:
No point arguing whether there are less or more than there used to be - there's too %@*^$^# many!

And most of them are the same old same old - maybe go to your local library and read up on the 'old' Safety Letters and see why pilots are getting killed and ask yourself WHY are pilots dying? Same stupid stuff that I saw 30 years ago.

"Learn from the mistakes of others; you'll not live long enough to make them all yourself."
.


Not arguing there xsbank, just stating an opinion, but your point(s) are certainly valid. 30 yrs ago, as you know, accident discussions/topics/bitching were usually over a few(many) beers at the local watering hole with the usual selection of buds. Nowdays, with forums like PPrune the usual speculation runs high on major accidents but the speculators doing the posting do have very good backgrounds on the topics discussed. But you are right - its the same old, same old..... [/quote]

hi oldfella:

I really agree with you on the endless sources of info available today. Even if traced back and the info originates from only a couple of places. The speed of data exchange also adds to the idea of a runaway scenario with the accidents. The old t.v. news saying "if it bleeds, it leads" is even more true today than any time in the past. IMHO, since we are human,since we operate complex machines in an atmosphere as dynamic as the one enveloping the earth, we will never reach the stage where there will be 0 accidents per year. This is not within reach of reality. What can be done is to be done on the level of the individual and that will have its limits of success. We can study the known cause and human reactions in each accident. Take what we learn from our research, apply it to our own personal situation and hope we're not in the plane the next time there is an accident. I started flying 40 years ago and I can honestly say, I have never seen anyone come up with a way to wreck a plane and its contents, that had not been thought of long before I showed up at the airport. It is always one of the same old causes. No regulator ,no industrial focus agency, no new "gheewhizz" type technology like the inet, and no fancy official acronym (ie:sms) can honestly be trusted to change the situation. There is nothing in a better situation than ourselves to try to keep that monkey off our own back. All we can really do is attempt to keep our own houses in order and hope we're close enough to offer assistance when someone gets into a s..t-load of trouble.

[zed]

As stated previously, one fatality is one too many.

However, the statistics (anyone have salt?) from the TSB are not quite doom and gloom, at least for the commercial side of the house. While some of the numbers are higher then last year, they are pretty much right on the running 5-year average, including the fatalities. Where they differ is the number of accidents involving privately registered aircraft. This has ballooned. I won't conjecture as to why that is, since I am not flying in Canada at the moment.

Also interesting are the reportable incidents. The collisions/loss of separation and declared emergencies have skyrocketed, statistically speaking. On the positive side the aircraft appear to be working mechanically better with such things as engine losses and fire-smoke dropping significantly. Also other reportable incidents are also down to some degree.

[altiplano]

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[Hedley]

I wonder why they didn't do better?

Because nobody cares. Nobody cares how good a pilot you are, or how well your aircraft is maintained.

All that matters to people is paper. They think that if they have paper as a pilot, and paper for the airplane, they are good to go.

When people confuse the paper world with the real world, sooner or later they're in for some serious pain.

This is not a purely Canadian problem. Look at the disastrous safety record of the Cirrus in the USA.

[mag check]

That's because the Cirrus is a disastrous aircraft.

[altiplano]

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[Romantic Lung]

I had read recently that year over year fatalities in U.S. Mines had gone up approx 40% between 2008 and 2009.

similar numbers in construction too (in Toronto)

I should cut and paste those statistics too, but instead I'll just cut to the chase. Also cause i'm getting sleepy.

There is (was) a colossal contraction in the world economy in 2008-09, and the long recession/ depression* technically hasn't ended.

So is safety in the workplace being compromised to a declining/ decaying economic system?


*based on Total unemployment stats

I actually feel pretty safe at my current job, but I'm aware that is not the case for all of us.