Yeh maybe I shouldn't have wrote that we would be replaced by robots... it was kind of just the cherry on top...
It is more the price and amount of oil left. Any industry based on oil for that matter. A lot of us have jobs now based on convenience, as in there isn't a necessity for it. The fact that people can live in two different places, thousands of miles apart, or visit family or any meaningless reason of travel, will one day stop. When that stops, and I hate to be a doomsday sayer or whatever the shit they are called, I don't see a need for as many pilots as we have now. There will still be jobs flying, no doubt about it. There will probably be a fair bit, but I don't see it as that lucrative of a job as it was before. And I am sure everyone can see that it is already happening.
Just wondering if any other guys have thought this way as well.
Future of pilots
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questionpilot
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Re: Future of pilots
questionpilot - geologic oil depletion of light sweet crude reservoirs is a scientific fact and has been posted in editorials such as Nature, Science, and Scientific American by geologist Colin Campbell and others. Other geologists find peak oil numbers around 2005-2010 - Jean Laherrerre, Kenneth Deffeyes, Sadad Al Husseini.
The US Joint Forces 2010 report states: “By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could
entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly
10 million barrels per day.”
In 2010, a leaked report by Future Analysis of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center,
a think tank tasked with fixing a direction for the German military, reported oil as
peaking in 2010.
Other organizations like ASPO, and people like Richard Branson have been vocal on this.
That's about all I got. The future of aviation is likely to be small pilotless fighters, with civil elites flying personal jets and turboprops.
On the subject of climate change and the future of aviation, I find that it is not tied as strongly. However if a climate emergency occurs then aviation may be shut down due to its injecting CO2 directly into the troposphere, among other reasons. Similarly a collapse of the west antarctic ice sheet mid-century would inundate coastal airports. The future for climate change and aviation (at its present scale) bodes poorly unfortunately, however stratospheric solar engineering looks promising as a short term strategy.
http://climateprogress.org/2010/03/04/s ... f-venting/
The JOE2010 is a good read. http://www.peakoil.net/files/JOE2010.pdf
The US Joint Forces 2010 report states: “By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could
entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly
10 million barrels per day.”
In 2010, a leaked report by Future Analysis of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center,
a think tank tasked with fixing a direction for the German military, reported oil as
peaking in 2010.
Other organizations like ASPO, and people like Richard Branson have been vocal on this.
That's about all I got. The future of aviation is likely to be small pilotless fighters, with civil elites flying personal jets and turboprops.
On the subject of climate change and the future of aviation, I find that it is not tied as strongly. However if a climate emergency occurs then aviation may be shut down due to its injecting CO2 directly into the troposphere, among other reasons. Similarly a collapse of the west antarctic ice sheet mid-century would inundate coastal airports. The future for climate change and aviation (at its present scale) bodes poorly unfortunately, however stratospheric solar engineering looks promising as a short term strategy.
http://climateprogress.org/2010/03/04/s ... f-venting/
The JOE2010 is a good read. http://www.peakoil.net/files/JOE2010.pdf
Re: Future of pilots
Shortage of fuel....thats B.S
Fuel price increase.....caused by that same B.S
not much change is to happen in the next 30-40 years. If shortage of fossil fuel becomes real boats and planes will be the last thing to go. I mean some houses still use oil for heating and there are still powerplants that run on it. I am not sure that we will see the end of petrol fueled air travel in this century or the next...as for pilotless tech well its not because the air force is able to fly drones that there wont be a need for humans in comercial flights we say that technology moves fast but in reality it is quite slow....Aircrafts built 30 years ago are still in service and NDB is still in use...when new tech apears it takes a while for the old one to die take cell phones and land lines for example. We live in the future and it is not what we imagined in fact it is not so diferent from the past....30-40 year is not that long.
Fuel price increase.....caused by that same B.S
not much change is to happen in the next 30-40 years. If shortage of fossil fuel becomes real boats and planes will be the last thing to go. I mean some houses still use oil for heating and there are still powerplants that run on it. I am not sure that we will see the end of petrol fueled air travel in this century or the next...as for pilotless tech well its not because the air force is able to fly drones that there wont be a need for humans in comercial flights we say that technology moves fast but in reality it is quite slow....Aircrafts built 30 years ago are still in service and NDB is still in use...when new tech apears it takes a while for the old one to die take cell phones and land lines for example. We live in the future and it is not what we imagined in fact it is not so diferent from the past....30-40 year is not that long.
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Dog Driver
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Re: Future of pilots
Well... the cost of a basket of goods x the marginal rate of utility of 1 standard pilot = pilot shortage in the future
It's pretty simple...... and shows a positive prediction for aviators.
It's pretty simple...... and shows a positive prediction for aviators.
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'effin hippie
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Re: Future of pilots
SO being a bright young dispatcher busily de-grading my profession and colleagues by starting in a non-flying position I ask the CP one day, 'why don't you fix the auto-pilots in those pos chieftains we flog around this patch? we could add another pax to every flight or increase the payload by 10%ish.'
To which he replies, no shit, 'co-pilots are cheaper than auto-pilots'.
The point being that this is all about $$$ and when auto-pilots are cheaper than pilots then thanks for comin' out...
The basic tech for fully automated flight has been with us since auto-land. Fully automated flight happens every day with the military. As for emergencies, well, if a pilot can run a check-list, so can a computer, just faster. Then maybe it alerts support personnel on the ground who review and authorize non-standard courses of action.
Will it fail, and kill hundreds? Of course. But can it be made to fail less, and kill fewer than manned operations? I would bet my bottom dollar YES to that too.
Imagine you are trying to earn profit for the share-holders of a major carrier.
How much do pilots cost? say 4000 at an average of $100K = $400M in direct salaries plus benefits and pensions. Add accommodations, travel, training, duty time limitations and scheduling....anyone wanna bet we're not over a billion? 2 billion?
Eventually automation will be the cheaper route. Probably fairly soon. The biggest obstacle will be public acceptance, but they vote with their wallets too.
So of course we will be replaced by robots. Cargo first. Then high-density short-haul. Then the rest of airline type operations. Then slowly the 703 type stuff. I'm kinda surprised anyone would argue this.
On the upside, you will still be able to get a Beaver job in NWT for another century.
ef
To which he replies, no shit, 'co-pilots are cheaper than auto-pilots'.
The point being that this is all about $$$ and when auto-pilots are cheaper than pilots then thanks for comin' out...
The basic tech for fully automated flight has been with us since auto-land. Fully automated flight happens every day with the military. As for emergencies, well, if a pilot can run a check-list, so can a computer, just faster. Then maybe it alerts support personnel on the ground who review and authorize non-standard courses of action.
Will it fail, and kill hundreds? Of course. But can it be made to fail less, and kill fewer than manned operations? I would bet my bottom dollar YES to that too.
Imagine you are trying to earn profit for the share-holders of a major carrier.
How much do pilots cost? say 4000 at an average of $100K = $400M in direct salaries plus benefits and pensions. Add accommodations, travel, training, duty time limitations and scheduling....anyone wanna bet we're not over a billion? 2 billion?
Eventually automation will be the cheaper route. Probably fairly soon. The biggest obstacle will be public acceptance, but they vote with their wallets too.
So of course we will be replaced by robots. Cargo first. Then high-density short-haul. Then the rest of airline type operations. Then slowly the 703 type stuff. I'm kinda surprised anyone would argue this.
On the upside, you will still be able to get a Beaver job in NWT for another century.
ef
Re: Future of pilots
703/704 will never go that way at least with present airplanes because there is no feasable way to isolate cockpit from passengers. New generation airplanes to fly rigs and groceries, no way. Pilots and clapped out King air and Metros will always be cheaper in this market. Who's going to pay to have a remote landing system put into every hick town in Canada. Dream on.
Re: Future of pilots
The fuel situation is this:
North America, Europe and Russia are sitting at the table staring dejectedly at the half full/empty bottle of Crown Royal...knock knock! oh, Hi there! Hey everyone it's China and India here to join the party.
North America, Europe and Russia are sitting at the table staring dejectedly at the half full/empty bottle of Crown Royal...knock knock! oh, Hi there! Hey everyone it's China and India here to join the party.
